2018 Bills vs 2016 Rams

[STL-Bills]

Hey guys. I'm from St. Louis, so I've followed the Rams since I was a kid (became a Bills fan in 09, long story )

 

Anyway, I wanted to try and point out the obvious parallels between our Bills this year, and the Rams of 2016.

 

Both teams had a rookie QB who they seemingly preferred to sit for a while. Both were thrust into the game earlier than expected (Allen even earlier than Goff, but Goff started sooner than they wanted him to nonetheless).

 

Both teams had a top tier RB (Shady on the tail end of his career, and an unproven Gurley coming off a promising rookie campaign for the Rams)

 

Both teams had poor to quite poor WR's (Bills: KB, Zay, Holmes, RayRay, Foster, Rams: Austin, Britt, Cooper, McRoberts, Quick, Thomas). Those Rams WR's are worse than what we have IMO. Not to mention the Rams putrid OL play that year (Some young guys like Jamon Brown and Havenstein have turned into quality players, but they were starting Greg Robinson at LT LMFAO)

 

Goff finished the year losing all 7 of his starts, completed 54% of his passes, with a 5:7 TD:INT ratio.

 

Allen, after 4 starts, is 2-2, with a 53% passing clip and a 2:5 TD:INT ratio.

 

Now, this is where the comparison gets more complicated. Following Goff's rookie year, the Rams hired Sean McVay. This one change has proven to be extremely valuable to both the Rams and to Goff. His numbers have skyrocketed, and he's currently a top 7 QB in the league IMO. The complicated part here is determining where to lay the praise for his turn around. Is it all Mcvay's doing? Can you attribute it to Goff's experience and trials faced in his rookie campaign? Is it both? I'll let you guys decide that.

 

One thing I think we can all agree on is the thought that the Bills will try to add some receiving help both through FA and the draft this coming season. And thats exactly what the Rams did entering 2017, drafting TE Gerald Everett, WR Cooper Kupp, and WR Josh Reynolds as well as signing FA Robert Woods. They also traded for WR Sammy Watkins, as Im sure most of you know

 

The point of this thread is to point out to all of the doomsday truthers around here that year one success, or lack thereof, does not always correlate to the same level of success in the future. If the Bills can draft some solid pass catchers, as well as make some impact FA signings (Quincy Enunwa PLEASE LORD), this ship can turn around. The one thing we don't have that the Rams did was an offensive mind like Mcvay. If we can get even remotely close to that, however, then I believe we will have a strong shot at being a much improved offense next year, and we'll see Allen really perform to the level he's shown in small flashes this season.

 

Im going to Indy in two weeks for the game. Will be tailgating in the Norwood lot with a Bills canopy. If anyone will be making the trip, stop by and say hello.

 

Go BILLS!

 

 

 

 

 

[ProcessAccepted]

Thanks for putting this together. Generally when there's a long post I never finish it, but you laid out a logical and solid case.

 

I totally agree with you. At the stage the Bills are at in the process there will be more struggles that you'd like but that's how you build in this league. I'd also draw the comparison with Aikman's rookie year and stats.

 

We've won 2 and lost 3 with a really tough early schedule. The team is heading in the right direction finally.

[STL-Bills]

1 minute ago, ProcessAccepted said:

Thanks for putting this together. Generally when there's a long post I never finish it, but you laid out a logical and solid case.

 

I totally agree with you. At the stage the Bills are at in the process there will be more struggles that you'd like but that's how you build in this league. I'd also draw the comparison with Aikman's rookie year and stats.

 

We've won 2 and lost 3 with a really tough early schedule. The team is heading in the right direction finally.

 

Glad you took the time to read. There were so many parallels to what we're going through right now that I felt I needed to share my thoughts. Future success is certainly not a guarantee, but the Rams progress, specifically Goff's, shows that its not outside the realm of possibility for the Bills and Allen to take a step forward next year.

[BringBackOrton]

4 minutes ago, STL-Bills said:

 

Glad you took the time to read. There were so many parallels to what we're going through right now that I felt I needed to share my thoughts. Future success is certainly not a guarantee, but the Rams progress, specifically Goff's, shows that its not outside the realm of possibility for the Bills and Allen to take a step forward next year.

But then the Bills need to figure out who is our Jeff Fisher and fire his ass like Tashard Choice.

[Bookie Man]

I would like to hear the story of '09 on how you became a Bills fan

[STL-Bills]

2 minutes ago, R Y G A R said:

I would like to hear the story of '09 on how you became a Bills fan

 

Maybe I'll post that story some other time. Its nothing crazy and exciting, moreso just random and pointless. Im #mafia all day for good now!

3 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

But then the Bills need to figure out who is our Jeff Fisher and fire his ass like Tashard Choice.

 

Hopefully Brandon was the Bills Fisher, and they just took care of the firing in the off season as opposed to mid season

[Domdab99]

One thing I love about McVay, is that he understands the percentages and isn't afraid of losing.

 

Yesterday, he went for it on 4th and 1 from around mid-field to close out the game, instead of doing what every dumb coach always does: punting the ball.

 

 

 

 

I mean, how is Jason Garret still employed? He literally gave the game to the Texans.

 

The Cowboys had to a chance to win this game in overtime but decided to punt on fourth-and-1 at the Houston 42 with six minutes left. The Cowboys have this big offensive line with two more than qualified options, Zeke and Dak, to handle the rock. On top of that, the Cowboys are 19-for-20 on fourth-and-1 over the last two seasons. It seems like a no brainer. But not to the “clapper.”

In his post game presser, Garrett said it was “a long one yard.” Yikes. Only a few more months until Lincoln Riley is the head coach of the Cowboys.

[Domdab99]

And Bill O'Brien isn't any better. 

 

The Texans had a total of nine offensive plays inside the 5-yard line. Let’s see what happened:

Play 1: third-and-1, DAL 1 — Jet Sweep TD

Play 2: third-and-2, DAL 2 — incomplete pass

Play 3: fourth-and-1, DAL 1 — incomplete pass

Play 4: first-and-goal, DAL 4 — incomplete pass

Play 5: second-GL DAL 4, QB sweep, Watson for 1.

Play 6: third-and-goal, DAL 3 — incomplete pass

Play 7: first-and-goal, DAL 1 — Alfred Blue for no gain

Play 8: second-and-goal, DAL 1 — Watson stuffed on a sneak

Play 9: third-and-goal, DAL 1 — incomplete pass

So that’s, ummm, not good.

We could put some blame on the players for not executing the plays, but there was no imagination outside of the first touchdown. You have Deshaun Watson, a dynamic athlete, and O’Brien didn’t call anything that had him rolling out of the pocket or include some unique backfield action to confuse the defense, like the Rams or Chiefs would be doing.

Also, how about getting under center? It’s not illegal for that to happen.

***

 

On the flip side of those coaching decisions, we had Sean McVay of the Rams.

McVay is uber aggressive, as are most younger head coaches, and it always seems to pay off. It helps that he’s got a big, veteran offensive line and some excellent offensive weapons.

The Rams were up 33-31 against the Seahawks with under two minutes left in the fourth quarter. It was fourth-and-1 from the LA 43. The Rams could have punted the ball and played defense, and it looked like that’s what they were going to do. The Seahawks had no timeouts left at point either. Instead, they went for it and got enough yardage to win the game.

Here’s what McVay told Peter King about this decision:

“I think the biggest thing was this: Our offensive linemen had the confidence to be able to get those six inches. I thought Jared did an excellent job of mixing up his cadence a little bit, and I felt like he could catch them off guard. We attack success. We don’t fear failure. We want to go for the win in that situation. Getting six inches to close it out was something that we felt the percentages were in our favor.”

I would have loved to play for McVay. His confidence rubs off on the whole locker room. The Rams play like they aren’t scared to lose, and that’s a big reason they haven’t lost.

[Kelly the Dog]

Now all we need is to find a witch to run the offense like McVay, and there are only about five of them on Earth.

[STL-Bills]

33 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

One thing I love about McVay, is that he understands the percentages and isn't afraid of losing.

 

Yesterday, he went for it on 4th and 1 from around mid-field to close out the game, instead of doing what every dumb coach always does: punting the ball.

 

 

 

 

I mean, how is Jason Garret still employed? He literally gave the game to the Texans.

 

The Cowboys had to a chance to win this game in overtime but decided to punt on fourth-and-1 at the Houston 42 with six minutes left. The Cowboys have this big offensive line with two more than qualified options, Zeke and Dak, to handle the rock. On top of that, the Cowboys are 19-for-20 on fourth-and-1 over the last two seasons. It seems like a no brainer. But not to the “clapper.”

In his post game presser, Garrett said it was “a long one yard.” Yikes. Only a few more months until Lincoln Riley is the head coach of the Cowboys.

 

McVay is using the advanced statistics to his advantage, no doubt about it. Won't be too long before the NFL starts resembling the MLB in its use of sabermetrics.

[Domdab99]

4 minutes ago, STL-Bills said:

 

McVay is using the advanced statistics to his advantage, no doubt about it. Won't be too long before the NFL starts resembling the MLB in its use of sabermetrics.

 

Hmmm, I think it'll take a lot longer to convince the old guard while they are still in power. Plus, analytics in football doesn't really work like it does in baseball. Too many moving parts.

 

Game decision things like when to go for it, when to punt or kick a FG, however, can be quantified mathematically. And has been. Tey just aren't using that math, for the most part. You know how long it took every team to finally use a 2-point conversion chart? 

 

If I was Jerry Jones, Jason Garrett would've been fired immediately after the game last night. 

 

How Ron Rivera and Mike McCarthy both still have jobs is also amazing to me. Horrible in-game decision makers.

Edited October 8, 2018 by Domdab99

[STL-Bills]

34 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

Hmmm, I think it'll take a lot longer to convince the old guard while they are still in power. Plus, analytics in football doesn't really work like it does in baseball. Too many moving parts.

 

Game decision things like when to go for it, when to punt or kick a FG, however, can be quantified mathematically. And has been. Tey just aren't using that math, for the most part. You know how long it took every team to finally use a 2-point conversion chart? 

 

If I was Jerry Jones, Jason Garrett would've been fired immediately after the game last night. 

 

How Ron Rivera and Mike McCarthy both still have jobs is also amazing to me. Horrible in-game decision makers.

My point exactly. The teams that best utilize that quantifiable data in their decision making processes will benefit tremendously over the "Old Guard" coaches and teams. Lets just hope we're in the former category, and not the latter.

[Utah John]

"We attack success."  You have to understand the context of the comment, but that's a guy who wants to win more than he fears losing.  That attitude will actually hurt his team from time to time, but he's going to win a lot more times than that.

 

Of course it helps to have the weapons.

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

1 hour ago, STL-Bills said:

 

McVay is using the advanced statistics to his advantage, no doubt about it. Won't be too long before the NFL starts resembling the MLB in its use of sabermetrics.

 

I don't think its necessarily so much about advanced stats. It's probably more football logic, common sense, and confidence. If you punt, you're putting your fate into the hands of a future HoF QB that can easily pick apart your zone D, or scramble big big yards against man to man. The Seahawks have a pretty good chance of picking up enough yards to kick the FG. You're pretty much hoping they miss a FG to win the game if you punt the ball away.

 

Orrrrrrrrrrr, you understand that fate is in your hands by picking up 6 inches to ice the game. Don't over think things like Pete Caroll in the Super Bowl. If you can't pick up a measly 6 inches, you don't deserve to win the game anyways.

 

Control your own fate, rathee than put it in the hands of your opponent.

1 hour ago, STL-Bills said:

My point exactly. The teams that best utilize that quantifiable data in their decision making processes will benefit tremendously over the "Old Guard" coaches and teams. Lets just hope we're in the former category, and not the latter.

 

It certainly helps that McVay is a savant.

 

Garrett, however, must not have remembered that his team was 19 for the last 20 on 4th and 1.

[yungmack]

3 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

But then the Bills need to figure out who is our Jeff Fisher and fire his ass like Tashard Choice.

Fisher was a D coach, McVay an O coach. Bye bye McD.