Gregg Rosenthal: 2018 NFL QB Index - Ranking QBs from the Last Four Drafts

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, syhuang said:

 

 

 

 

 

Quoting analytic stats is really meaningless without any context.  How about adding some.

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, syhuang said:

 

 

 

 

Nerds are losing their mind. 

11 minutes ago, H2o said:

Rusher I will admit to a certain extent. As a passer?  Is that "according to the numbers"?  Have you actually watched him play? I have. Allen's ceiling is CERTAINLY higher. He isn't even better than Josh right now. He also has a better team around him, especially along the OL.  

Arizona has worst oline in the nfl and Fitz is on the decline sadly.  

[billspro]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I broke it down pre & post injury. Allen's pre-injury rating is 49.2 (replacement level) and his post-injury rating is 76.8 (in line with Mayfield, Cousins, Dalton, and Mullens).

 

That’s awesome and it is an exciting time to be a Bills fan.

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I HATE the turn ceilings.  What is Allen’s ceiling?  Jamarcus Russell and Jake Locker has high ceilings.  He wasn’t even that good in MWC.  All of sudden on the nfl level, he is magically going to become a far superior player than he was in college?  How often does that happen?

 

they are both very different players.  I liked Rosen more and still think the way he plays is the easiest way to be a franchise type qb.  But he also thought he’s be further along than Allen so kudos to Allen.  But they are both qbs with ratings in the 60s, which is awful, so they have a long way to go. 

Folks who dislike Allen tend to bring up Russell because strong arm and Locker because mainly a runner with a fairly strong arm who flamed out at the NFL level. Some fella reached into the way back vault to mention Bobby Douglass. Allen has shown tangible improvement as the year has progressed. At this point, everyone is projecting. That's the nature of looking at a rookie qb and assessing the future. Since one is forced to imagine a potential becoming an actuality, part of that process is imagining where a player might top out if all goes well. So sorry you dislike the term ceiling. I think Allen has a good chance to be top five. He might fail, but I don't think skepticism is any more rational than my own views. You're free to think otherwise.

Edited December 21, 2018 by Dr. Who

[billspro]

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Nerds are losing their mind. 

Arizona has worst oline in the nfl and Fitz is on the decline sadly.  

 

Buffalo’s oline is not better than Arizona’s. Allen is just more mobile and moves in the pocket well. Rosen’s biggest flaw is mobility so he can’t do anything with bad oline play.

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Folks who dislike Allen tend to bring up Russell because strong arm and Locker because mainly a runner with a fairly strong arm who flamed out at the NFL level. Some fella reached into the way back vault to mention Bobby Douglass. Allen has shown tangible improvement as the year has progressed. At this point, everyone is projecting. That's the nature of looking at a rookie qb and assessing the future. Since one is forced to imagine a potential becoming an actuality, part of that process is imagining where a player might top out if all goes well. So sorry you dislike the term ceiling. I think Allen has a good chance to be top five. He might fail, but I don't think skepticism is any more rational than my own views. You're free to think otherwise.

 

Also the reason Russell failed was he didn’t even bother to learn the playbook. Who knows if he could have been good if he actually cared. 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, billspro said:

 

Buffalo’s oline is not better than Arizona’s. Allen is just more mobile and moves in the pocket well. Rosen’s biggest flaw is mobility so he can’t do anything with bad oline play.

 

Also the reason Russell failed was he didn’t even bother to learn the playbook. Who knows if he could have been good if he actually cared. 

Yep. Allen is the polar opposite of Russell's apathy.

[billspro]

12 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I HATE the turn ceilings.  What is Allen’s ceiling?  Jamarcus Russell and Jake Locker has high ceilings.  He wasn’t even that good in MWC.  All of sudden on the nfl level, he is magically going to become a far superior player than he was in college?  How often does that happen?

 

they are both very different players.  I liked Rosen more and still think the way he plays is the easiest way to be a franchise type qb.  But he also thought he’s be further along than Allen so kudos to Allen.  But they are both qbs with ratings in the 60s, which is awful, so they have a long way to go. 

 

Allen carried that Wyoming team to a lot of wins. They sucked this year without him. He had a bad oline, WRs, and RBs his last year in college. A QB needs help to be successful. A lot of college teams would lose be 20 points to Bama even with Tom Brady as the QB because they are completely outmatched at the other positions. 

Edited December 21, 2018 by billspro

[racketmaster]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Folks who dislike Allen tend to bring up Russell because strong arm and Locker because mainly a runner with a fairly strong arm who flamed out at the NFL level. Some fella reached into the way back vault to mention Bobby Douglass. Allen has shown tangible improvement as the year has progressed. At this point, everyone is projecting. That's the nature of looking at a rookie qb and assessing the future. Since one is forced to imagine a potential becoming an actuality, part of that process is imagining where a player might top out if all goes well. So sorry you dislike the term ceiling. I think Allen has a good chance to be top five. He might fail, but I don't think skepticism is any more rational than my own views. You're free to think otherwise.

I agree and think with his attributes it is not a stretch to think he could be a top 3 qb in the NFL within 2-3 years. The only player on the list that I would take ahead of Allen is Mahomes. Mayfield should be very good as well but I think Allen is the right fit for Buffalo.

[billspro]

1 minute ago, racketmaster said:

I agree and think with his attributes it is not a stretch to think he could be a top 3 qb in the NFL within 2-3 years. The only player on the list that I would take ahead of Allen is Mahomes. Mayfield should be very good as well but I think Allen is the right fit for Buffalo.

 

Also, I expected Mayfield to be Better than Allen the first couple years. He started way more games in college. We won’t really know who is better between the two until year three. Allen has been progressing every game and I expect him to make a big jump this offseason.

[racketmaster]

I just don't get the thinking of putting so many other young qbs ahead of Allen on a futures projection. I guess if your thinking is extremely conservative and the goal is to not have your quarterback bust, then players like Prescott and Mariota could be considered the safer picks. But those 2 (I'm just using those 2 as an example) will soon need to be paid and will end up like Andy Dalton. They are not terrible and can keep you in most games but you will not win big with them. Why would anyone want to choose that. It's like going on a game show and being offered the mystery prize that could be $1000 or zero and deciding to just take the $50 bucks because at least you won't end up with nothing.

7 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

Also, I expected Mayfield to be Better than Allen the first couple years. He started way more games in college. We won’t really know who is better between the two until year three. Allen has been progressing every game and I expect him to make a big jump this offseason.

At some point, really good is good enough. I mean look at the Rivers, Big Ben and Manning draft. All their careers are winding down and there are still arguments over which quarterback was the best. All 3 were certainly good enough and the organizations did not have to worry about selecting a replacement for many years.

Edited December 21, 2018 by racketmaster

[billspro]

4 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

I just don't get the thinking of putting so many other young qbs ahead of Allen on a futures projection. I guess if your thinking it extremely conservative and the goal is to not have your quarterback bust, then players like Prescott and Mariota could be considered the safer picks. But those 2 (I'm just using those 2 as an example) will soon need to be paid and will end up like Andy Dalton. They are not terrible and can keep you in most games but you will not win big with them. Why would anyone want to choose that. It's like going on a game show and being offered the mystery prize that could be $1000 or zero and deciding to just take the $50 bucks because at least you won't end up with nothing.

At some point, really good is good enough. I mean look at the Rivers, Big Ben and Manning draft. All their careers are winding down and there are still arguments over which quarterback was the best. All 3 were certainly good enough and the organizations did not have to worry about selecting a replacement for many years.

 

I hope that is how it turns out. I would like to see the Bills and the Browns have good QBs and win some division titles. Both good fan bases that deserve better.

[jletha]

Rosenthal says right there that he was "Team Tyrod" which should show you a lot of what he values in a QB. Ball security, limiting mistakes, high completion percentage on safe throws. Im not sure how you can be Team Tyrod after watching him get benched 2 games into the season for another rookie. That hurts his credibility more than anything to me. If thats what you like then Allen will not register high. As someone that was sick of Tyrods conservative play Allen is a breath of fresh air. We knew, and Cleveland soon found out (for the price of a third round pick) that Tyrod is very limiting to an offense. Those limits are gone now. On every play we have a chance at an explosive play and he forces the defense to cover the entire field. Time will tell if he keeps developing but lets not get up in arms over these silly rankings.

[syhuang]

31 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Quoting analytic stats is really meaningless without any context.  How about adding some.

Do you miss the link in the twitter on what this advanced stat is and how it work?

 

But anyway, it's not the point. The point is that there are different analysis out there showing different conclusions. We can start to post both sides of analysis instead of only the ones matching one's agenda. As I told you and you recently agreed, it's too early to tell.

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, syhuang said:

Do you miss the link in the twitter on what this advanced stat is and how it work?

 

But anyway, it's not the point. The point is that there are different analysis out there showing different conclusions. We can start to post both sides of analysis instead of only the ones matching one's agenda. As I told you and you recently agreed, it's too early to tell.

 

I understand how it works. The point is that he's playing in a crap situation that will only lead to low productivity.  Simply showing numbers like those don't offer any context for why.  They'll have the number one pick in the draft and they have "earned" it. 

[syhuang]

If you read the link carefully, it actually takes more into account. But again, it's not the point. The point is that there are different analysis out there showing different conclusions. We can start to post both sides of analysis instead of only the ones matching one's agenda. As I told you and you recently agreed, it's too early to tell.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, syhuang said:

If you read the link carefully, it actually takes more into account. But again, it's not the point. The point is that there are different analysis out there showing different conclusions. We can start to post both sides of analysis instead of only the ones matching one's agenda. As I told you and you recently agreed, it's too early to tell.

 

You don't need to tell me, I already know it's far too early to draw any conclusions and I haven't at any point this season on any of these 1st round QBs because they can all develop and grow in addition to being placed in better circumstances with stronger supporting casts.

[C.Biscuit97]

6 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

You don't need to tell me, I already know it's far too early to draw any conclusions and I haven't at any point this season on any of these 1st round QBs because they can all develop and grow in addition to being placed in better circumstances with stronger supporting casts.

You better say right now who the best qb will be or you get out of this thread!!!! I didn’t come here for this patience crap!!!

[syhuang]

5 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

You don't need to tell me, I already know it's far too early to draw any conclusions and I haven't at any point this season on any of these 1st round QBs because they can all develop and grow in addition to being placed in better circumstances with stronger supporting casts.

Good!! And it'd be great if we can all start to post both sides of analysis instead of posting one side ranking/analysis.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, syhuang said:

Good!! And it'd be great if we can all start to post both sides of analysis instead of posting one side ranking/analysis.

 

I don't know what you're referring to, but I've posted plenty about Allen of late with praise for how he's done some very good things since his return from the elbow injury.   You must be part of the Allen bunker brigade. 

 

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You better say right now who the best qb will be or you get out of this thread!!!! I didn’t come here for this patience crap!!!

Seriously, who is claiming certitude?

[syhuang]

43 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I don't know what you're referring to, but I've posted plenty about Allen of late with praise for how he's done some very good things since his return from the elbow injury.   You must be part of the Allen bunker brigade. 

 

 

 

Good job at attacking me personally, I was just helping to balance the analysis in this very thread. Like I told you and you recently agreed, it's too early to tell who will be better.

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, syhuang said:

 

Good job at attacking me personally, I was just helping to balance the analysis in this very thread. Like I told you and you recently agreed, it's too early to tell who will be better.

 

Attacking you personally? It's in jest. You seem awfully sensitive.

[syhuang]

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Attacking you personally? It's in jest. You seem awfully sensitive.

 

ok, whatever.

[26CornerBlitz]

QB Index, Week 17: Previewing Offseason QB Market

 

It's finally Teddy's time. Right? Saints coach Sean Payton may not want to give away his plans for playing time in the team's season finale just yet, but with the No. 1 seed in the NFC already locked up, Drew Brees is among those expecting Teddy Bridgewater to get significant snaps against the Pantherson Sunday. In fact, Brees was inactive in a similar scenario back in 2009.

 

Bridgewater's comeback from the devastating knee injury he suffered in 2016 has included many notable benchmarks, but starting or getting significant regular-season snaps would be a big step forward. It could also serve as a springboard for Bridgewater to jump to the top of this offseason's crowded quarterback market.

 

For once, the supply of potential veteran starters could exceed the demand. There aren't many teams desperate for a new starter, a subject I wrote about in early December. The Jaguars and Redskinsshould definitely be looking to make deals, but there are more teams like the Dolphins, Giants, Broncos and Buccaneers that could play a game of chicken with their current starters, waiting to see how the trade market develops before turning the page at the position.

 

Bridgewater had high hopes heading into free agency this past offseason, but wound up signing for less guaranteed money than guys like Mike Glennon and Drew Stanton. That was a miscalculation by many teams. After Bridgewater's impressive preseason with the Jets, his value rose enough to inspire the Saints to send a third-round pick to the Jets just to get Bridgewater in the building as a backup. (The Saints also received a sixth-round pick in the deal.)

 

Saints fans see Sunday as a recruiting effort. If Bridgewater can shine in Payton's system, perhaps he will be sold on remaining there as Brees' eventual successor. However, it's more likely that a prime performance inspires a team like the Jaguars or Dolphins to offer Bridgewater a real chance at a starting job and the money that comes with it. After three years off the field, that would be a difficult offer to refuse.

 

With the season-ending QB Index rankings on tap for next week, I wanted to take an early look at what players could be available this offseason. I've ranked quarterbacks in two categories: Expected free agents and potential trade/cut candidates, with Bridgewater leading the way in the first category.