THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - All So Improbable

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 minutes ago, Figster said:

I d on't want to draft a QB just for the sake of drafting one in the top 3 rounds so it depends for me.

If the guy we really wanted within reason is gone get a player that will have an impact now is how I would approach the next draft.

Lots of holes to fill...

 

There are a lot of holes to fill.  But IMO QB is one of the biggest.  No, don't draft one for the sake of drafting one...I believe that's why we drafted EJM.

We didn't think he was worthy of the pick we held, but I believe Nix had been scooped on a couple other QB he wanted in the later rounds so he wanted to pull the trigger early.  But then instead of treating him like a 2-4 rd pick with lots to prove and a place to earn, we treated him like the incoming sure-fire face of the franchise.  Nuts.

 

Anyway, I will be very disappointed if we don't take a shot on drafting a QB, a guy we think is worth drafting before Rd 5.

 

People lust over Peterman's potential because the Bills are so deeply QB needy....remember when fans here were screaming about exposing 7th rd Levi Brown to waivers 'cuz his potential was so high?

[BigDingus]

People always say "lots of holes to fill!" as if the QB position isn't a glaring hole and hasn't been for 18 years... 

The Bills have had the longest playoff drought in NFL history, and therefore are equating us getting in with some kind of sustainable success. That's not the case, and look at all the other bad teams that HAVE made the playoffs sooner than us, and how they still weren't good for long after with those QBs.

The Browns are now the longest active drought, but they got in before us. They made it with Kelly Holcomb (who almost beat the Steelers in those playoffs). The Redskins before Cousins made it in several times, but nobody remembers their QBs. The Bucs made it in with Jeff Garcia. The Jags made it in with David Garrard (and won a game). The Dolphins made it in with Chad Pennington. The Jets made it in with Mark Sanchez. The Titans made it in with Kerry Collins. The Broncos made it in with Tim Tebow, and before that Jake Plummer. The Rams made it in with Marc Bulger. The Bears made it in with Rex Grossman & later Jay Cutler. The Eagles made it in with Mike Vick & later Nick Foles. 

Guys, we've just been SUPER unlucky. With the Patriots being in our division, we've had no shot at winning that route, so we've had to resort to WC play. And there are always teams that come through at the end, where we falter. Just because we got in this year with TT, that does not equal "TT is the guy who got us in!" 

Edited January 4, 2018 by BigDingus

[y2zipper]

I think if Kirk Cousins sees the light of day in free agency, that's the best move. It fills the hole with a top ten guy and while that comes at a high price, there's no risk involved because Cousins is consistently better than 3/4 of the league.

 

Outside of that, collect prospects and try to get one to hit. This is where Buffalo hasn't done a good job IMO. Seattle and Washington did this successfully.

[Shaw66]

Cousins is unexciting, but I think he's the kind of guy that McDermott would like.   He seems smart, coachable, good size.  He'll make plays for you every game.   On his best days, he doesn't look like Peyton or Brees at his best, but he doesn't have many truly bad days.  He's reliable and probably good enough to win with.   I'd bet that he reads the field and makes decisions in the passing game better than Taylor.  

 

He'll cost a lot, but I'd spend it.  

[MTBill]

I'm in agreement with most of you...  There are a lot of ways to do this.

 

I think we do need to spend some draft capital in someone they believe it at QB.  I just don't want to blow more than 1 or 2 picks on it. No trading the farm for a prayer.  We are NOT 1 QB away from being 13-3. We have got to improve our team.  I totally get that we have not drafted a stud, we've hoped that our guy we draft on the cheap will turn out to be Tom Brady...  Cuz that happens all the time in the NFL, right?  Maybe if you have a really smart scout who can identify a diamond in the rough...  we don't seem to have that given our QBs.

 

During the drought - not a single QB we drafted has amounted to a hill of beans.  Going back to Todd Collins.  Every 'workable' QB we've had was from elsewhere.  Bledsoe, TT, Orton (for a time), Flutie (if he was your guy) (edit - oops), forgot Fitz.  The drafted QBs I remember without looking them up, junk.  I am not saying I didn't like them off the field...  I mean we didn't get a Leaf or a J Russell...  But we didn't find a Brady either.

 

I am sort of hoping we get a vet via FA.  Someone to honestly compete with TT in the system we want to run.  No excuses about systems unsuited etc....  And if TT is the guy, he's the guy.  If he's not, he's not.  I think we need a much stronger O-Line and we have got to add depth and future starters in a lot of places via this years draft.  Kyle is great.  He could retire after this season - or be back for another 1...  but he can't play forever.  His replacement does not seem to be on this roster right now.  5 picks in the first 3 rounds should yield 5 starters - which goes a long way towards improving the team for now and the future, the "Process" if you will.

17 hours ago, KCNC said:

Agree except for Landry.  Would never want that a-hole on my team I root for.

 

 

I can't recall who it was - but it seems like we picked up a FA once who was a jerk from Miami...  And he turned out OK, not great.  But maybe that's just a faulty memory.

Edited January 4, 2018 by MTBill

[Heathcliff]

I often wonder how a near yearly change in coordinators (offensive/defensive systems) impacts the overall performance of the team & particularly the QBs we fail with.  Belichek has been successful in part due to a single QB (yes a great one) but I think more importantly the offensive and defensive systems have been in place for many many years.  New guys learn it and fit in while the old guys know exactly, from year to year, what their role is.

 

We have to stop the coaching carousel and it seems we have the right guy at the top to do just this.

[Figster]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't agree.  When you don't have a QB, you have to be taking a shot at a new one every year.   That's how we got stuck with Manuel - the Bills had no choice but to take the best QB available.   

 

During those two decades, if I have it right, the Bills drafted TWO QBs in the first round - Losman and Manuel.   Think about that - they didn't have a QB and only twice in 20 years did they take one in the first round.   In those two decades, in the second and third rounds they've taken one more - Trent Edwards in the third.    

 

So, at the most important position on the team, a position of immense need, in twenty years the Bills have drafted exactly three guys (other than hopeless longshots in the later rounds).    They didn't go after any of the - admittedly few - free agents, like Brees.   

 

Beyond that, needing a QB, they've passed on Wilson, Prescott, Watson, Mahomes, Bridgewater, Tannehill (assuming they could have traded up two spots).    There probably are a few I'm missing.   

 

Waiting and waiting for the right QB to come along is NOT the answer.   When it's your turn to pick, find a guy who has whatever you think are the most important attributes - size, arm strength, brains, intangibles, whatever - and take him.   If he busts, take another one next year.   

 

You're never going to have a QB if you don't draft one. 

The problem I see with drafting a QB season after season until you get one is the time it takes to get an accurate assessment on the 1st guy you get before going on to the next guy.  When you draft a QB In the top 3 rounds his future is in your hands. Maybe the OC isn't a good match or maybe the QB needs a few seasons under his belt before the game slows down.

 

If Buffalo could grow QB's like we do CB's I might be more inclined to agree with you 

[BadLandsMeanie]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't agree.  When you don't have a QB, you have to be taking a shot at a new one every year.   That's how we got stuck with Manuel - the Bills had no choice but to take the best QB available.   

 

During those two decades, if I have it right, the Bills drafted TWO QBs in the first round - Losman and Manuel.   Think about that - they didn't have a QB and only twice in 20 years did they take one in the first round.   In those two decades, in the second and third rounds they've taken one more - Trent Edwards in the third.    

 

So, at the most important position on the team, a position of immense need, in twenty years the Bills have drafted exactly three guys (other than hopeless longshots in the later rounds).    They didn't go after any of the - admittedly few - free agents, like Brees.   

 

Beyond that, needing a QB, they've passed on Wilson, Prescott, Watson, Mahomes, Bridgewater, Tannehill (assuming they could have traded up two spots).    There probably are a few I'm missing.   

 

Waiting and waiting for the right QB to come along is NOT the answer.   When it's your turn to pick, find a guy who has whatever you think are the most important attributes - size, arm strength, brains, intangibles, whatever - and take him.   If he busts, take another one next year.   

 

You're never going to have a QB if you don't draft one. 

 

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

There are a lot of holes to fill.  But IMO QB is one of the biggest.  No, don't draft one for the sake of drafting one...I believe that's why we drafted EJM.

We didn't think he was worthy of the pick we held, but I believe Nix had been scooped on a couple other QB he wanted in the later rounds so he wanted to pull the trigger early.  But then instead of treating him like a 2-4 rd pick with lots to prove and a place to earn, we treated him like the incoming sure-fire face of the franchise.  Nuts.

 

Anyway, I will be very disappointed if we don't take a shot on drafting a QB, a guy we think is worth drafting before Rd 5.

 

People lust over Peterman's potential because the Bills are so deeply QB needy....remember when fans here were screaming about exposing 7th rd Levi Brown to waivers 'cuz his potential was so high?

These two posts encapsulate my opinion pretty much perfectly.

 I just hope we have a regime with the humility to understand and accept that they can not know or predict how a QB will turn out, because no one can.

 The lack of humility is what lead us to cling to Losman and EJ, selecting no one else, even after any reasonable unbiased observer would know there were valid concerns about them.

 

I say no one can, because it is to me a fact. If someone could reliably pick the franchise QBs out of the yearly crops, they would soon dominate every team in perpetuity. Because they could trade their proven starter for 2 or 3 first round picks and then simply plug in the next guy they knew was good enough. Do the for a few years and you would have the greatest roster in the league by far.

 

Nobody does that because nobody can. I just hope our regime knows that.

 

My only difference is I that I like the practice of trading a this year's 1st for a this year's 2nd and a next years 1st.

 

Because tomorrow comes, and in most scenarios, the profit is enormous.

 

Also each year it leaves you with 2 first round picks and should the special case arise, you can package those two with your next year's first and trade up to grab a guy without crippling yourself for the future.

 

Edited January 5, 2018 by BadLandsMeanie

[Hapless Bills Fan]

51 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

 

These two posts encapsulate my opinion pretty much perfectly.

 I just hope we have a regime with the humility to understand and accept that they can not know or predict how a QB will turn out, because no one can.

 The lack of humility is what lead us to cling to Losman and EJ, selecting no one else, even after any reasonable unbiased observer would know there were valid concerns about them.

 

I say no one can, because it is to me a fact. If someone could reliably pick the franchise QBs out of the yearly crops, they would soon dominate every team in perpetuity. Because they could trade their proven starter for 2 or 3 first round picks and then simply plug in the next guy they knew was good enough. Do the for a few years and you would have the greatest roster in the league by far.

 

Nobody does that because nobody can. I just hope our regime knows that.

 

Right on. 

I'll add one thing: there was a period of time where a team that drafted a QB high in the 1st better be sure, because paying the contract said draftee would demand would preclude the team moving on if the guy busted.  It crippled the Rams to be tied to Sam Bradford for 6 years, $78M ($50M guaranteed) as Bradford began to be dogged by injuries in his 2nd year.  That drove the strategies of a lot of QB-needy teams, fearing to pull the trigger on a 1st round pick who might bust and leave them stuck with a huge contract and no QB.

Bradford was the last.  Under the new CBA from 2011-on the contracts are smaller, and pretty much manageable if a guy busts or can't stay on the field.
But a team can never hit the shot they don't take.
 

Edited January 5, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Heathcliff said:

I often wonder how a near yearly change in coordinators (offensive/defensive systems) impacts the overall performance of the team & particularly the QBs we fail with.  Belichek has been successful in part due to a single QB (yes a great one) but I think more importantly the offensive and defensive systems have been in place for many many years.  New guys learn it and fit in while the old guys know exactly, from year to year, what their role is.

 

We have to stop the coaching carousel and it seems we have the right guy at the top to do just this.

 

I think Alex Smith and Sam Bradford are two examples whose development as QB was severely hampered by this.

 

Smith had 6 different OCs his first 6 years in the league. 

Bradford had 3 different OCs his first 4 years in the league.

 

I don't think it's coincidence that both of them took about that long to start looking like capable NFL QBs

It's not just the QB - the OL, the TE, the RB, the WR are all confident in the playcalls and their roles/choices when the system stays the same year after year.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, BigDingus said:

People always say "lots of holes to fill!" as if the QB position isn't a glaring hole and hasn't been for 18 years... 

The Bills have had the longest playoff drought in NFL history, and therefore are equating us getting in with some kind of sustainable success. That's not the case, and look at all the other bad teams that HAVE made the playoffs sooner than us, and how they still weren't good for long after with those QBs.

The Browns are now the longest active drought, but they got in before us. They made it with Kelly Holcomb (who almost beat the Steelers in those playoffs). The Redskins before Cousins made it in several times, but nobody remembers their QBs. The Bucs made it in with Jeff Garcia. The Jags made it in with David Garrard (and won a game). The Dolphins made it in with Chad Pennington. The Jets made it in with Mark Sanchez. The Titans made it in with Kerry Collins. The Broncos made it in with Tim Tebow, and before that Jake Plummer. The Rams made it in with Marc Bulger. The Bears made it in with Rex Grossman & later Jay Cutler. The Eagles made it in with Mike Vick & later Nick Foles. 

Guys, we've just been SUPER unlucky. With the Patriots being in our division, we've had no shot at winning that route, so we've had to resort to WC play. And there are always teams that come through at the end, where we falter. Just because we got in this year with TT, that does not equal "TT is the guy who got us in!" 

 

Certainly, the Bills didn't win or make it into the playoffs this year on the strength of their offense, including their QB.

I'm not quite sure what the point of your previous paragraph is though.  It mixes scrap-heap guys like Kelly Holcomb, who started 2 games and went 1-1 the year the Browns made the playoffs (Couch was their main QB), never-all-thats like Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow or Rex Grossman, and guys who were for a stretch of years genuinely decent QB - David Garrard and Marc Bulger would be examples.  Even Jeff Garcia was on the downhill side of a decade career that started with some solid years as SF starter, years that would have been seen more kindly if he hadn't followed Joe Montana and Steve Young.