THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - All So Improbable

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Shaw

Here's my take:  Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

 

Most of us have suffered through 17 years of pure, unwavering mediocrity. Through it all the team was never all that good, and only once, so bad as to be deserving of a truly top pick (Dareus). The drought had to end some time. Why not this year, in one of the years that nobody predicted it would?

 

I couldn't care less what happens on Sunday. I am just glad to be off the 'snide'!  To be honest, this looks like a one and done season, and I would not be surprised to drop back right out again next year....but... I'm going to remain OVER THE TOP THRILLED ALL THIS WEEK and through the entire off-season.  The long winter is finally over!

 

Go Bills

I don't disagree that the Bills might miss the playoffs next year.   This team isn't, in my opinion, very good. 

 

But I've become a big believer in McDermott.   I've said it several times - I think he's like Belichick.   He has a standard defense that he plays, and plays and plays, and he teaches his players to play it.   The defense adjusts and gets more nuanced as the season goes by (just like Belichick's defense).   He always has another player ready to step in, a player who knows his role, plays within himself, and isn't a liability (Milano, for example).  Belichick's teams are like this.  

 

His mesage is about continuously improving.   When this post season ends for him, he will be at work the next morning, reviewing the season, learning what he did wrong and what he could do better, and getting his coaches to do the same.   

 

So, for example, if the Bills draft four position players (other than QB) in the first two rounds, I expect they ALL will be playing significant minutes by the end of their rookie seasons, because McDermott teaches his guys what they need to know to play effectively.  So I expect that four holes get filled in the first two rounds, and two or three more get filled in the later rounds.   Add a free agent or two, and I expect this team will be a LOT more solid across the lineup.   

 

I'm pretty excited about the prospect for the future.   McDermott isn't going to do the same things next season that he did this season.  He'll change, his coaches will change, and his team will be even better fundamentally.   

[MTBill]

I am loving this week.  I also acknowledge there is a long road ahead.  It is great to get over this hurdle though  One thing this team needed was to believe in itself.  Making the playoffs - however it was accomplished is no easy feat and they did it.

 

I waffle on TT a lot.  I think I fall into that John Butler - "fine young man" trap.  I liked EJ too, but he never figured it out either (or the coaches couldn't figure him out - water under the bridge).  While I think TT is likely to be in Buffalo next season, I'm not shocked at all if he is not, regardless of how this week plays out.

 

Even though the time was short - TT + Benjamin never seemed to click.  I think if you grab Benjamin for 1.5 seasons, you are planning on having someone who can feed him the ball.  I do not expect Matthews to be on the roster...  I hope Zay has a better sophomore season - WR often don't blossom in year 1...  We have serious OL + DL questions...

 

But those are things for next season.  For now, I am relishing the moment.

 

 

[Shaw66]

23 minutes ago, MTBill said:

I am loving this week.  I also acknowledge there is a long road ahead.  It is great to get over this hurdle though  One thing this team needed was to believe in itself.  Making the playoffs - however it was accomplished is no easy feat and they did it.

 

I waffle on TT a lot.  I think I fall into that John Butler - "fine young man" trap.  I liked EJ too, but he never figured it out either (or the coaches couldn't figure him out - water under the bridge).  While I think TT is likely to be in Buffalo next season, I'm not shocked at all if he is not, regardless of how this week plays out.

 

Even though the time was short - TT + Benjamin never seemed to click.  I think if you grab Benjamin for 1.5 seasons, you are planning on having someone who can feed him the ball.  I do not expect Matthews to be on the roster...  I hope Zay has a better sophomore season - WR often don't blossom in year 1...  We have serious OL + DL questions...

 

But those are things for next season.  For now, I am relishing the moment.

 

 

It's fun to have really big games, week after week.   How great would it be to win another?   Playoffs in Foxboro!  

 

And I agree about getting the players to believe.   McD told them to keep going, to work on what they're given, prepare, then play their hearts out, and they got rewarded.  

[Maine-iac]

It's funny this is the same team that scored 399 points last year but couldn't win 9 games.   While the defense wasn't night and day all season it was much better enough of the time.   A team with a good defense always has a chance. 

[Shaw66]

45 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

It's funny this is the same team that scored 399 points last year but couldn't win 9 games.   While the defense wasn't night and day all season it was much better enough of the time.   A team with a good defense always has a chance. 

You can talk about luck, and the Bills certainly had some this year.   

 

But in other years people talked about the Bills were bad because they didn't know how to finish games.   Well, they finished them this season.  It wasn't always pretty, but they got the job done.   I don't think that happened by accident.   I think this team has better intangibles than many of the teams in the past, and you have to credit McD for that. 

[Maine-iac]

12 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

You can talk about luck, and the Bills certainly had some this year.   

 

But in other years people talked about the Bills were bad because they didn't know how to finish games.   Well, they finished them this season.  It wasn't always pretty, but they got the job done.   I don't think that happened by accident.   I think this team has better intangibles than many of the teams in the past, and you have to credit McD for that. 

By that token the final Miami game last year was of much the same ilk last year as this year and like you said two different outcomes.  Belichick says you can and will make a mistake or two in each game.  The secrect is not making too many.  Being Buffalo we often get an assist from the refs so we are already behind the 8 ball.  McDermott does seem to have the discipline aspect under much better control.  Hughes might be the best example of that.  I think he only went nuts once this year which must be a record for him.

[MTBill]

13 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

You can talk about luck, and the Bills certainly had some this year.   

 

But in other years people talked about the Bills were bad because they didn't know how to finish games.   Well, they finished them this season.  It wasn't always pretty, but they got the job done.   I don't think that happened by accident.   I think this team has better intangibles than many of the teams in the past, and you have to credit McD for that. 

 

You know - back in the SB years - those wins weren't always pretty either...  but not everyone remembers that. 

 

We had the bickering Bills for a reason.  What matters is the Win, not how it was accomplished.  Every team gets garbage wins and quality wins.  We aren't blowing anyone out - and we were blown out this season a few times...  But it does not seem like this team is coached/built to blow the doors off offensively.

 

This weekend will be a chippy game - probably a fair amount of penalties, but I do think the Bills can (and maybe should) win this game - both teams have a lot of pressure.  Bills last playoff WIN - 1995 against Miami (QB was Jimbo of course).  That's 23 years ago...  much longer than the "drought".  Jacksonville has the home game and a 2 game losing streak after being a darling of the national media.

[Starr Almighty]

I loathe the Dolphins but Jarvis Landry is easily the only player I like on that team. Sure I've gotten angry at him for some of the stuff he's done in Bills games, but the guy is a great player. I'd love to steal him in FA. If McDermott could get him to behave a bit better it would be a huge signing. I agree with Shaw66 wholeheartedly.

[Figster]

29 minutes ago, MTBill said:

 

You know - back in the SB years - those wins weren't always pretty either...  but not everyone remembers that. 

 

We had the bickering Bills for a reason.  What matters is the Win, not how it was accomplished.  Every team gets garbage wins and quality wins.  We aren't blowing anyone out - and we were blown out this season a few times...  But it does not seem like this team is coached/built to blow the doors off offensively.

 

This weekend will be a chippy game - probably a fair amount of penalties, but I do think the Bills can (and maybe should) win this game - both teams have a lot of pressure.  Bills last playoff WIN - 1995 against Miami (QB was Jimbo of course).  That's 23 years ago...  much longer than the "drought".  Jacksonville has the home game and a 2 game losing streak after being a darling of the national media.

Myself personally, I believe Tyrod Taylor's running abilities will be on full display this Sunday as T Mobile spear heads his teams quest for greatness.

 

Throwing caution to the wind...

 

...I'm a Billiever...

 

 

[BadLandsMeanie]

On the draft for a QB I am more or less in line with Shaw.

 

If I were in charge and I saw a QB who had every ability including size and stable mentality, a proven substantial record as a college starter, and the special quick  intelligence to read defenses, in short a solid chance of becoming a prototypical franchise QB, I would trade every pick we have to trade up for him.

 

I personally don't see anyone like that, but if One Bills does, I would be ok with it.

 

Barring that I figure if I am going to gamble I will gamble with more acceptable losses if it goes wrong. So I would be hoping that the hype over the top ranked QBs let somebody drop to me in the late first or the second. So I would grab somebody in the late first or the 2nd, and then again if someone seemed like a good prospect, in the third. And yes I would keep 4 qbs on the roster if I had to while Peterman and the new guys battled it out for the #2 spot.

 

I would consider trading our 2nd first round pick for a 2nd this year and a first next year to one of the teams that wants to get to the top to grab a QB.

 

That way we have 2 firsts again next year.

 

We have too ,many holes, some of which were created by this new regime, to fill with one draft. I think they have to continue on their roll bringing in guys like Gaines and Poyer who just step right up. A decent draft and another off season like that and the team is way more solid.

 

My overall strategy would be to understand that A)  this team may continue to be too good to pick at the top of the draft at any time in the next few years. B) That my regime has probably 3 years on the clock now due to an extended grace period for breaking the drought. So in 3 or 4 years I have to have a Quarterback who is good enough that I don't have to build elsewhere to compensate for a lack of top skills at the QB spot. I need to be a legit contender at the top echelon by then. 

 

That will be harder because the team is doing so much with nothing is we build it more, it will probably keep doing a bit better. So somehow I need to get a franchise QB without picking at the top. Which means I have to get lucky. Which means I need to keep taking shots at guys like Carr and Garropolo and  Prescott and so on.

 

It is kind of making me nervous and it isn't even my job hehe.

[BadLandsMeanie]

Sorry it looks like I killed the tread! :/

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/1/2018 at 2:12 PM, BadLandsMeanie said:

Improbable indeed.

What Sorcery is this?

 

About Tyrod Taylor, I think he controls his own destiny here. If he plays well and we advance, it will be an extremely difficult move to sell to the public, to get rid of him.

 

For me, barring that, I would be ready to move on from him if another decent option came along. The reason being is the Bills have been peddling variations of the build a strong team around a lackluster QB theory, for 20 years now on and off. It has never worked. So I personally don't believe it will start to work now.

 

But no matter what, this was the funnest Sunday of late season Bills football in ages and ages and I sure did like it!

 

What I would like to see the Bills do is pretty much what the Seahawks did in 2012.

 

2011: Tarvaris Jackson, a gritty veteran appreciated by fans for playing much of the season with a torn pectoral muscle, started 14 games for them and went 7-7 in starts.

He looked capable but not great, 60% completions, 6.2 AY/A, 14 TD, 3091 yds.  It was his 6th year in the league and his 2nd team.  It was their 2nd year under Pete Carroll and the Seahawks had been to the playoffs the previous year with Hasselbeck and Lynch, then moved on from Hasselbeck in a surprise move after the strike.  The Seahawks went to the playoffs in 2010 with the same losing record. 

 

It wouldn't have been a shock had Seattle let Tarvaris heal up his torn pec, get another year in the system and see what he could do.

 

Instead, the Seahawks went "all in".  Matt Flynn was the hot FA of the season having thrown for 460 yds and 6 TDs.  Signed with Seattle for 3 years, $20M, $9M guaranteed.

But wait, there's more: NFL draft rolls around.  Russ "If he were 6'5" he'd probably be the #1 pick in the draft" Wilson is there when they pick in the 3rd round.  AND the Seasnakes still had the capable but not great TJax in the stable.   Russ Wilson won the off-season QB competition.  The Seasnakes trade TJax to the Bills that August and Flynn to Oakland next spring, getting a bit of a lower-round return.

 

People talk about "move on from him".  The best time to move on from a QB is after you find a better QB, not in hopes that you will.   Why "move on" from TT and debate "do we sign a FA, do we draft a guy?" 

 

Go All In.  Do all 3.  QB is a tight enough market that if we find someone better, the chances are good we can make a deal for any surplus candidates.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 4, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Maine-iac]

I always liked the old school way of bringing a QB along.  He sits a good part of his rookie contract.  Plays if your starter gets hurt.  Looks great or doesn't isn't a big deal because he's not being thrown into action as the starter.  Everything moves so fast now.  If a QB is drafted they almost root for the starter to go down.  I don't think this is the coaching staff where you are going to bring in a 1st round pick and see him win rookie of the year.   Redo Tyrod's contract again.  Sign him to three years with a relatively friendly contract that treats him like he's going to start the next two anyways.  Draft your rookie and let him sit and learn the first two seasons.  Get some better WR's and build the o-line.  Tyrod can take care of the ball and run around.  By season 3 that first round pick should be competing in training camp for the job.  I fully expect a good part of the posters don't see this as a remotely decent idea but once upon a time this is how it was done.

[Maine-iac]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What I would like to see the Bills do is pretty much what the Seahawks did in 2012.

 

2011: Tarvaris Jackson, a gritty veteran appreciated by fans for playing much of the season with a torn pectoral muscle, started 14 games for them and went 7-7 in starts.

He looked capable but not great, 60% completions, 6.2 AY/A, 14 TD, 3091 yds.  It was his 6th year in the league and his 2nd team.  It was their 2nd year under Pete Carroll and the Seahawks had been to the playoffs the previous year with Hasselbeck and Lynch, then moved on from Hasselbeck in a surprise move after the strike.  The Seahawks went to the playoffs in 2010 with the same losing record. 

 

It wouldn't have been a shock had Seattle let Tarvaris heal up his torn pec, get another year in the system and see what he could do.

 

Instead, the Seahawks went "all in".  Matt Flynn was the hot FA of the season having thrown for 460 yds and 6 TDs.  Signed with Seattle for 3 years, $20M, $9M guaranteed.

But wait, there's more: NFL draft rolls around.  Russ "If he were 6'5" he'd probably be the #1 pick in the draft" Wilson is there when they pick in the 3rd round.  AND the Seasnakes still had the capable but not great TJax in the stable.   Russ Wilson won the off-season QB competition.  The Seasnakes trade TJax to the Bills that August and Flynn to Oakland next spring, getting a bit of a lower-round return.

 

People talk about "move on from him".  The best time to move on from a QB is after you find a better QB, not in hopes that you will.   Why "move on" from TT and debate "do we sign a FA, do we draft a guy?" 

 

Go All In.  Do all 3.  QB is a tight enough market that if we find someone better, the chances are good we can make a deal for any surplus candidates.

 

 

 

 

 

In funny coincidences we had Flynn and Jackson here at one point or another.  Wilson was electric that preseason.  It certainly is a good story and worth trying.  We have the picks it's a matter of who's there I suppose.

[BadLandsMeanie]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What I would like to see the Bills do is pretty much what the Seahawks did in 2012.

 

2011: Tarvaris Jackson, a gritty veteran appreciated by fans for playing much of the season with a torn pectoral muscle, started 14 games for them and went 7-7 in starts.

He looked capable but not great, 60% completions, 6.2 AY/A, 14 TD, 3091 yds.  It was his 6th year in the league and his 2nd team.  It was their 2nd year under Pete Carroll and the Seahawks had been to the playoffs the previous year with Hasselbeck and Lynch, then moved on from Hasselbeck in a surprise move after the strike.  The Seahawks went to the playoffs in 2010 with the same losing record. 

 

It wouldn't have been a shock had Seattle let Tarvaris heal up his torn pec, get another year in the system and see what he could do.

 

Instead, the Seahawks went "all in".  Matt Flynn was the hot FA of the season having thrown for 460 yds and 6 TDs.  Signed with Seattle for 3 years, $20M, $9M guaranteed.

But wait, there's more: NFL draft rolls around.  Russ "If he were 6'5" he'd probably be the #1 pick in the draft" Wilson is there when they pick in the 3rd round.  AND the Seasnakes still had the capable but not great TJax in the stable.   Russ Wilson won the off-season QB competition.  The Seasnakes trade TJax to the Bills that August and Flynn to Oakland next spring, getting a bit of a lower-round return.

 

People talk about "move on from him".  The best time to move on from a QB is after you find a better QB, not in hopes that you will.   Why "move on" from TT and debate "do we sign a FA, do we draft a guy?" 

 

Go All In.  Do all 3.  QB is a tight enough market that if we find someone better, the chances are good we can make a deal for any surplus candidates.

 

 

 

 

 

Makes sense to me. I am not sure Tyrod is the best option for the starter but we sure could do worse.

[KCNC]

Agree except for Landry.  Would never want that a-hole on my team I root for.

 

[Shaw66]

Most reasonable people agree that it would be nice to stay with Taylor until a better option appears, and that's what people are generally saying. 

 

There are a few who say get rid of Taylor so he isn't occupying space; the longer you keep him, the longer you're delaying getting the right guy.  I don't agree with that philosophy, but I understand it. 

 

The real question is how aggressive should they  be going after the next guy?   Peterman is a possibility, but they need another, and probably a better, option.  Meanie and I agree there.   I don't see the college QB who looks like he's worth trading up for, but I don't know the talent or, really, what to look for.  I think they should take the first QB they see who appears to offer value at the place where the Bills are picking, and in fact be aggressive about it.  That is, if you see a guy like Garoppolo, a second round pick with promise, you might go after him late in the first (if he measures up).  The point is that they have to be committed enough to overdraft a guy.   They can't afford to do what they did last season - wait and wait and then because he looks like a bargain, take Peterman.  

 

In other words, and I know people will gag on this, they have to be willing to do what Donahoe did - reach for Losman.   Now, Donahoe's problem was that he traded up and reached, which I think is a mistake.   If you're going to reach, which means you're going to take a gamble, you don't put extra chips on the table.   You simply reach at the place where you're picking.  

 

They have five picks in the first three rounds.   I think they should draft five guys, and one of those should be a QB.   

[Figster]

13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Most reasonable people agree that it would be nice to stay with Taylor until a better option appears, and that's what people are generally saying. 

 

There are a few who say get rid of Taylor so he isn't occupying space; the longer you keep him, the longer you're delaying getting the right guy.  I don't agree with that philosophy, but I understand it. 

 

The real question is how aggressive should they  be going after the next guy?   Peterman is a possibility, but they need another, and probably a better, option.  Meanie and I agree there.   I don't see the college QB who looks like he's worth trading up for, but I don't know the talent or, really, what to look for.  I think they should take the first QB they see who appears to offer value at the place where the Bills are picking, and in fact be aggressive about it.  That is, if you see a guy like Garoppolo, a second round pick with promise, you might go after him late in the first (if he measures up).  The point is that they have to be committed enough to overdraft a guy.   They can't afford to do what they did last season - wait and wait and then because he looks like a bargain, take Peterman.  

 

In other words, and I know people will gag on this, they have to be willing to do what Donahoe did - reach for Losman.   Now, Donahoe's problem was that he traded up and reached, which I think is a mistake.   If you're going to reach, which means you're going to take a gamble, you don't put extra chips on the table.   You simply reach at the place where you're picking.  

 

They have five picks in the first three rounds.   I think they should draft five guys, and one of those should be a QB.   

I d on't want to draft a QB just for the sake of drafting one in the top 3 rounds so it depends for me.

 

If the guy we really wanted within reason is gone get a player that will have an impact now is how I would approach the next draft.

 

Lots of holes to fill...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

In funny coincidences we had Flynn and Jackson here at one point or another.  Wilson was electric that preseason.  It certainly is a good story and worth trying.  We have the picks it's a matter of who's there I suppose.

 

I'm not sure it's coincidence.  When we did that, I believe the Bills were firmly in the mode of turning over other team's reject scrap heaps to see what "fool's gold" we could uncover.  A guy who was servicable in Seattle and a guy who played great in GB, both beaten out by a rookie QB we passed on, were firmly in the Bill's Modus Operandi of the time.

 

Nix did some good things for the Bills, but his handling of the whole QB thing in 2012/2013 was bizarre in the extreme.  First they trade for TJax from Seattle for whatever remained on his  then they don't play him a single down all season in 2012.   Then they resign TJax for $1.75M ($500k guaranteed), try to resign Fitz for reportedly TJax money + incentives, cut Fitz, sign Kolb, draft EJ.....the Bills paid TJax something like $2.5M and he never played a down for them.  It made no sense.

[Shaw66]

11 minutes ago, Figster said:

I d on't want to draft a QB just for the sake of drafting one in the top 3 rounds so it depends for me.

 

If the guy we really wanted within reason is gone get a player that will have an impact now is how I would approach the next draft.

 

Lots of holes to fill...

I don't agree.  When you don't have a QB, you have to be taking a shot at a new one every year.   That's how we got stuck with Manuel - the Bills had no choice but to take the best QB available.   

 

During those two decades, if I have it right, the Bills drafted TWO QBs in the first round - Losman and Manuel.   Think about that - they didn't have a QB and only twice in 20 years did they take one in the first round.   In those two decades, in the second and third rounds they've taken one more - Trent Edwards in the third.    

 

So, at the most important position on the team, a position of immense need, in twenty years the Bills have drafted exactly three guys (other than hopeless longshots in the later rounds).    They didn't go after any of the - admittedly few - free agents, like Brees.   

 

Beyond that, needing a QB, they've passed on Wilson, Prescott, Watson, Mahomes, Bridgewater, Tannehill (assuming they could have traded up two spots).    There probably are a few I'm missing.   

 

Waiting and waiting for the right QB to come along is NOT the answer.   When it's your turn to pick, find a guy who has whatever you think are the most important attributes - size, arm strength, brains, intangibles, whatever - and take him.   If he busts, take another one next year.   

 

You're never going to have a QB if you don't draft one.