Bocephuz Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 (edited) I've taken a few minutes to look at Pro Football Focus and see where the mismatches may be. Below are a few matchups to watch with PFF grades sprinkled in. ( yes I realize PFF ratings are not perfect but they are directionally useful) SAINTS OFFENSE VS. BILLS D Ted Ginn (79.8 PFF grade) vs. S. Wright (56.6) or EJ Gaines (fully healthy) or Micah Hyde / Poyer Ginn is still very fast and Brees will look to go deep to him at any time. Shareece Wright is susceptible to double moves and is not really that fast Gaines will likely not be 100% if he does play PLAY NOTES: NO is backed up 3 and 8 at their own 13. Do they play it safe ... no they are going for it all even though they are inside their own 20 Looks like TB shows Cover 4 but is actually Cover 3 here.. which should theoretically prevent the deep ball the CB plays way too wide and the Safety inexplicably gets caught peeking in the backfield Ginn is wide open for what should have been an easy 87 yd TD but fortunately for TB Brees overthrows him. PLAY NOTES TB appears to be in Cover 4 here below.. which again.. should theoretically prevent the deep ball S Play Action makes S #21 peek in backfield for extra second Ted Ginn makes nice feint move to outside faking flag route turning #21 hips and then goes back inside on the go route Result wide open Ted Ginn easy 36 yd TD SUMMARY - Our CBs and Safeties need to forget about INTs and getting too caught up in making big plays. Instead they should focus on keeping the play in front of them and focusing solely on their man. If they get caught peeking in the backfield or trying to be too aggressive thinking that they've sniffed out a play they will most certainly get burned by Ginn/Brees and company. Fortunately our defense is built on zone play, keeping guy in front of you and making the tackle.. so if the Bills secondary can stay disciplined and avoid the big play they should be able to keep NO in the 20's. Brees is going to get his completions.. there is really no stopping that.. just need to eliminate the big plays. Kyle Williams vs. LG Peat (44.7) or C Unger (38.4) Brees may be short.. but he truly is a classic pocket passer. Our best chance to rattle him is to bring pressure up the middle in his face Both Unger and Peat are rated very poorly. Meatball is still very quick off the snap and in this D he is full steam ahead on getting penetration If KW can get pressure on his own.. or if the Bills can have some successful A B gap or zero blitzes up the gut we should be able to rattle Brees BILLS OFFENSE VS. SAINTS D TE O'Leary / Clay vs. S K. Vaccaro / LB AJ Klein Per PFF .. the weak links are S K. Vaccaro ( 41.1 rating) and LB A. J. Klein ( 36.5) The Saints CBs are both very highly rated as is their D Line. The soft spot appears to be the short/middle spot where Klein and Vaccaro spend a lot of time. If the Bills can implement a game plan similar to Denver and the Jets where the run is established and play action can be used.. these TEs should be able to move the chains and make plays vs. these poorly rated second level players. OT Jordan Mills vs. DE Cam Jordan ( 90.7) Cam Jordan has 7 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. Jordan Mills has had ups and downs this year in pass protect. He was solid against Khalil Mack but in other games he has been embarrased by the pass rusher in front of him. The Bills will likely need to give Mills some help in the form of FB or TE chipping his man.. or maybe running at him early and then using play action to put him on his heels If the Bills get into a situation where they are down by a few scores and are in obvious passing downs then Cam Jordan could end up having a big day Edited November 8, 2017 by Bocephuz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Thanks for the work as always and the interesting stuff. Cam Jordan scares me. I have no idea if we are going to get the OL that played against the Raiders or the Jets. At home, I think it's the Raiders but wouldn't bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bocephuz Posted November 8, 2017 Author Share Posted November 8, 2017 Just now, Kelly the Dog said: Thanks for the work as always and the interesting stuff. Cam Jordan scares me. I have no idea if we are going to get the OL that played against the Raiders or the Jets. At home, I think it's the Raiders but wouldn't bet on it. Hi .. thanks. My view is that Thursday night games are abborations and not useful indicatiors of a team's true identity. In that light.. I think the O lIne was beat up against the Jets (especially Glenn and Incognito) and the short week really contributed to their poor play. Hopefully the extra few days rest allows the O Line to put their best foot forward. I'm also hoping for bad weather (that certainly helped in the Raiders game) to be our friend. The forecast keeps changing.. yesterday it called for 70% chance of rain.. and now today I see it's calling for mostly cloudy 20% chance of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan130 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Awesome work. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bocephuz Posted November 9, 2017 Author Share Posted November 9, 2017 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Great detail! it looks like Vaccaro hasn’t practiced yet this week. Could be big if he’s out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 16 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said: Thanks for the work as always and the interesting stuff. Cam Jordan scares me. I have no idea if we are going to get the OL that played against the Raiders or the Jets. At home, I think it's the Raiders but wouldn't bet on it. Should have hit him at Whole Foods Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Or secondary is usually pretty good at keeping the play in front of them which I think contributes to the INTs. With wright on Ginn I expect Hyde or poyer to be ready over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bocephuz Posted November 9, 2017 Author Share Posted November 9, 2017 47 minutes ago, The Wiz said: Or secondary is usually pretty good at keeping the play in front of them which I think contributes to the INTs. With wright on Ginn I expect Hyde or poyer to be ready over the top. yep.. that is sort of our scheme.. keep the guy in front of you and make the tackle. Hopefully that'll eliminate guys like Ginn getting behind the D for big plays. 1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said: Great detail! it looks like Vaccaro hasn’t practiced yet this week. Could be big if he’s out. I think it all boils down to our run game getting going early. If we can establish the threat of the run a backup safety would likely be very vulnerable to biting on the play action. I really hope Clay is back to playing shape this game. I think he'll be the key this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said: Should have hit him at Whole Foods Tuesday Gillooly'd him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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