Kirby Jackson Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 (edited) Of course and if that is what the Bills think that there are potentially 7 QBs better in next year's class then fine. But if they have any of the 2017 guys in the range I have Watson then they should pick that Quarterback at #10 if he is there and not wait for the possible magic unicorns in 2018 because we may well be back in this position next year with no sure things or 1 sure thing that is well out of the Bills drafting range. I am with Jeff. I don't think Howard is a top 10 player either. I do have him ahead of Njoku but I'd have a hard time being excited about OJ Howard at #10. Projections without production are not top 10 picks in my opinion. On the first part that's kind of the point. It isn't a magic unicorn, it's a bunch of guys. Some will rise and others will fall. That's the most likely outcome. As of today probably 3 of the top 15 draft grades in 2018 are QBs (Darnold, Rosen and Allen) and another 4 or 5 in the top 50. Drafts have different position strengths. I'd be shocked if by the draft next year it drastically changed. In terms of Howard I'm not dying for him 10 either but he fits my criteria. His floor is Clay and his ceiling is very high. I think that the likely outcome is Olsen. In the top 10 I want low risk and high reward. Edited April 12, 2017 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 On the first part that's kind of the point. It isn't a magic unicorn, it's a bunch of guys. Some will rise and others will fall. That's the most likely outcome. As of today probably 3 of the top 15 draft grades in 2018 are QBs (Darnold, Rosen and Allen) and another 4 or 5 in the top 50. Drafts have different position strengths. I'd be shocked if by the draft next year it drastically changed. In terms of Howard I'm not dying for himst 10 either but he fits my criteria. His floor is Clay and his ceiling is very high. I think that the likely outcome is Olsen. In the top 10 I want low risk and high reward. This time last year DeShaun Watson was the #1 player on a lot of 2017 boards. I don't personally scout ahead. I know NFL teams do, a bit, but I tend to find that there is always an element of gushing about next year at this stage. I am sure there will be a couple of very good Quarterbacks available next year because as you say the sheer number of highly thought of guys likely to declare gives you good odds that is the case.... but I really would be surprised if by this time next year people are talking about 4 or 5 slam dunks. I think that is unlikely. I think there are likely 1 or 2 slam dunks who you need to be in the top 3 or 4 to have a chance at and then a bunch of guys at a similar level to this class and the 2014 class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CEN-CAL17 Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 Bills will Trade down a few spots and grab Haason Reddick... Would love if we traded down like 3 spots, threw in like 1 of our 5th round picks/ maybe a late rd pick next year and received an additional 2nd rd pick. That would be a top 15 pick, plus 2 top 50 picks. That's what I want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffismagic Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 This time last year DeShaun Watson was the #1 player on a lot of 2017 boards. I don't personally scout ahead. I know NFL teams do, a bit, but I tend to find that there is always an element of gushing about next year at this stage. I am sure there will be a couple of very good Quarterbacks available next year because as you say the sheer number of highly thought of guys likely to declare gives you good odds that is the case.... but I really would be surprised if by this time next year people are talking about 4 or 5 slam dunks. I think that is unlikely. I think there are likely 1 or 2 slam dunks who you need to be in the top 3 or 4 to have a chance at and then a bunch of guys at a similar level to this class and the 2014 class. Yes, great post. If the class is great only 1 or 2 sure things. Then you get guys like you have now. No benefit to the Bills in waiting unless you see a chance we finish with 3 or less wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 Bills will Trade down a few spots and grab Haason Reddick... Would love if we traded down like 3 spots, threw in like 1 of our 5th round picks/ maybe a late rd pick next year and received an additional 2nd rd pick. That would be a top 15 pick, plus 2 top 50 picks. That's what I want If they are not taking a Quarterback I'd rather trade down further or twice in the 1st round. Get back to the early 20s. Still come good prospects available in that range who would be fits and pick up ideally a couple of extra mid round picks this year and a 1st or a 2nd next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 (edited) This time last year DeShaun Watson was the #1 player on a lot of 2017 boards. I don't personally scout ahead. I know NFL teams do, a bit, but I tend to find that there is always an element of gushing about next year at this stage. I am sure there will be a couple of very good Quarterbacks available next year because as you say the sheer number of highly thought of guys likely to declare gives you good odds that is the case.... but I really would be surprised if by this time next year people are talking about 4 or 5 slam dunks. I think that is unlikely. I think there are likely 1 or 2 slam dunks who you need to be in the top 3 or 4 to have a chance at and then a bunch of guys at a similar level to this class and the 2014 class. The scouting is a year out. Blesto has established their 2018 list. They finish the scouting in the fall but at least half of next year is done. The Blesto meetings I think have already taken place. I think that's fair. Watson was thought of highly and is still there. I don't see that changing next year either. Some come, some go and some stay. I am not saying that there will be 8 first rounders. The point that I am trying to make is there will likely be a few guys better than this group grade wise. There will be a few more that look like Trubisky or Bridgewater. Guys that have some strengths and some holes. I've been on board trying to get a 2018 1st so that you can go from 10 to 3 or whatever to land one of those elite guys. Edited April 12, 2017 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffismagic Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 If they are not taking a Quarterback I'd rather trade down further or twice in the 1st round. Get back to the early 20s. Still come good prospects available in that range who would be fits and pick up ideally a couple of extra mid round picks this year and a 1st or a 2nd next year. We agree on this. Unless a Solomon Thomas or Jamal Adams falls to 10, if the Bills do a defense draft they should trade back. We also agree that they should take a QB if the guy is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 (edited) If they are not taking a Quarterback I'd rather trade down further or twice in the 1st round. Get back to the early 20s. Still come good prospects available in that range who would be fits and pick up ideally a couple of extra mid round picks this year and a 1st or a 2nd next year. I am all for that. As far as I am concerned the Bills are missing 4 starters: S, LB, WR and CB. I was hoping that they could still fill one of these spots in FA (maybe Boldin). I am starting to doubt it though. Edited April 12, 2017 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 I've been on board trying to get a 2018 1st so that you can go from 10 to 3 or whatever to land one of those elite guys. But you need the teams up there to be willing to do that (ie. a top 3 drafting team who doesn't need one). Imagine if there were 3 slam dunks this year - none of Cleveland, San Fran or Chicago would trade those picks away. Some years you get a team with a franchise QB up there drafting in the top 3 or 4 due to injury or other circumstances, but it doesn't happen often. I am not against it as a plan but it requires a lot of luck even then for things to fall into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luxy312 Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 Jamal Adams, Marshon Lattimore, or Malik Hooker. That's it. For any other position or player except those that could not fall to #10 (i.e. Miles Garrett), trade down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 (edited) But you need the teams up there to be willing to do that (ie. a top 3 drafting team who doesn't need one). Imagine if there were 3 slam dunks this year - none of Cleveland, San Fran or Chicago would trade those picks away. Some years you get a team with a franchise QB up there drafting in the top 3 or 4 due to injury or other circumstances, but it doesn't happen often. I am not against it as a plan but it requires a lot of luck even then for things to fall into place. Rarely though do all 3 teams need that guy. Last year picks 1 & 2 were traded. One of those teams needed a QB but still elected the 2nd 1st rounder. The Bears, as an example, would probably take 10 and 25 after paying Glennon. The Browns are the Browns and did it last year. The 49ers desperately need a QB, are picking 2 and they are going to pass on this group. I know that you need to find a partner but teams have historically been able to get these deals done. Edited April 12, 2017 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffismagic Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 (edited) Rarely though do all 3 teams need that guy. Last year picks 1 & 2 were traded. One of those teams needed a QB but still elected the 2nd 1st rounder. The Bears, as an example, would probably take 10 and 25 after paying Glennon. The Browns are the Browns and did it last year. The 49ers desperately need a QB, are picking 2 and they are going to pass on this group. I know that you need to find a partner but teams have historically been able to get these deals done. But last year neither Wentz nor Goff were considered can't miss. We don't know that the 49ers will pass. If they already have Cousins coming then sure. If they don't have an agreement with Cousins in place,Trubisky or Mahomes could be gone at 2. Also, 49ers could be getting a top 2 pick next year. That puts them in the running for 2018 and that is not where the Bills are at. Edited April 12, 2017 by jeffismagic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 Rarely though do all 3 teams need that guy. Last year picks 1 & 2 were traded. One of those teams needed a QB but still elected the 2nd 1st rounder. The Bears, as an example, would probably take 10 and 25 after paying Glennon. The Browns are the Browns and did it last year. The 49ers desperately need a QB, are picking 2 and they are going to pass on this group. I know that you need to find a partner but teams have historically been able to get these deals done. But Wentz and this year's crew are not slam dunks. The only time it happened with a consensus slam dunk was RGIII and the circumstances there were very specific - a team with a QB who was himself a consensus #1 pick just 2 years before who had an injury ravaged year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 But last year neither Wentz nor Goff were considered can't miss. We don't know that the 49ers will pass. If they already have Cousins coming then sure. If they don't have an agreement with Cousins in place,Trubisky or Mahomes could be gone at 2. Also, 49ers could be getting a top 2 pick next year. That puts them in the running for 2018 and that is not where the Bills are at. Agreed, and they still had high grades than every QB in this draft (at least according to scouts inc.). But the Browns may be in the top 3 and will probably take their guy this year. The Jets may take a guy this year and should be awful. You have to look at the really bad teams and say, "who is taking QB?" If you have a 2nd first and a borderline top 10 pick you have the ammo that other teams don't to get a deal done.But Wentz and this year's crew are not slam dunks. The only time it happened with a consensus slam dunk was RGIII and the circumstances there were very specific - a team with a QB who was himself a consensus #1 pick just 2 years before who had an injury ravaged year.I hear you. I don't disagree. All that I am saying is that if you have a slam dunk and the draft capital you can probably get a deal done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffismagic Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 (edited) Scouts Inc 2014 Derek Carr 68 Blake Bortles 91 Johnny Manziel 90 Teddy Bridgewater 89 Edited April 12, 2017 by jeffismagic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 without any QB's there are 10 top tier talented players in this draft one will fall in our lap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 People who keep comparing this QB class to EJ Manuel have no idea how to evaluate an NFL QB prospect. Period. End of story. It is in no way, shape, or form, the same QB class. All you need to do is look at the stats and watch a few minutes of film to see that there are at least 3 QBs, probably more, in this draft who are miles ahead of where EJ was when he was drafted. Watch EJ play at FSU, he had terrible accuracy then too. It's not even close. Funny because somewhere - unfortunately I forget where - I heard an NFL personnel guy compare this to the 2013 NFL draft regards to QBs. Clearly you have an opinion. There's no reason to denigrate other people with a different opinion. It's insulting, pointless, unnecessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 (edited) Scouts Inc 2014 Derek Carr 68 Blake Bortles 91 Johnny Manziel 90 Teddy Bridgewater 89 ...and that is the order that they were drafted in. Jamarcus Russell was a 98 too. I am sure Dak, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady didn't receive great grades either. There are always exceptions. A year from now we may be sitting here saying, "I can't believe that the Bills didn't take Josh Dobbs at 10 or 44!!" At the same time Jameis was a 97, Luck a 99, etc... They are right more than they are wrong. Like anything in scouting it isn't perfect but you grade guys and follow your board. It is like that at every position. You need to trust your scouting. Edited April 12, 2017 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffismagic Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 ...and that is the order that they were drafted in. Jamarcus Russell was a 98 too. I am sure Dak, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady didn't receive great grades either. There are always exceptions. A year from now we may be sitting here saying, "I can't believe that the Bills didn't take Josh Dobbs at 10 or 44!!" At the same time Jameis was a 97, Luck a 99, etc... They are right more than they are wrong. Like anything in scouting it isn't perfect but you grade guys and follow your board. It is like that at every position. You need to trust your scouting. My point was don't trust Scouts Inc. Getting Luck and Jameis Winston right is something anyone can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 My point was don't trust Scouts Inc. Getting Luck and Jameis Winston right is something anyone can do. I don't particularly trust them those were just the numbers that I heard this morning. At the same time you showed their grades for 4 guys and they were drafted from highest to lowest. Whether we like the eventual results or not it was a pretty good predictor of which guys would be drafted when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts