Jauronimo Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 (edited) Let me just remind everyone that this guy is a biased fan just like all of us. His standards for a QB unforced error and sufficient line protection are not only subjective, but they have an inherit bias. I appreciate (I really do) the effort that you make, but it's clear that your interest in stats has confused you into listing arbitrary variables as facts. Are you suggesting that he got it from his mama? No, he hasn't. Edited November 2, 2016 by Jauronimo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 Let me just remind everyone that this guy is a biased fan just like all of us. His standards for a QB unforced error and sufficient line protection are not only subjective, but they have an inherit bias. I appreciate (I really do) the effort that you make, but it's clear that your interest in stats has confused you into listing arbitrary variables as facts. Hey I think your ride's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 I really look forward to these. Great stuff as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 I don't have the time to watch every pass play of every NFL game and write up an analysis to get that data. I can only go from the data/ studies I myself have done regarding recent Bills QB play in games I've analyzed. Im not claiming to make any sort of overarching statement on NFL QB play.. just trying to apply some sort of method to analyzing how much impact OLine play has on QB play for the Bills I completely understand. I am just saying it is hard to really come up with that comparative number when we really only look at the Bills QBs and the Bills OL. If anything it can be used as a comparison or growth of regression compared to last year is all i am saying. Not dumping on the stat or your analysis, appreciate it, sorry if it came off that way. Just trying to get context on how these comparables came about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 (edited) I completely understand. I am just saying it is hard to really come up with that comparative number when we really only look at the Bills QBs and the Bills OL. If anything it can be used as a comparison or growth of regression compared to last year is all i am saying. Not dumping on the stat or your analysis, appreciate it, sorry if it came off that way. Just trying to get context on how these comparables came about I would think that his number's are pretty close and if anything on the low side. The Bills don't take many chances in the passing game. 5 is probably the perfect number to judge Tyrod on. I would think that someone like Jameis for example may be 8 or so. That is the design of their offense. The Bills don't try to make difficult throws which leads to unforced errors. In addition, they pass the ball less. A % of "unforced error" throws is probably the most accurate way to compare guys. Even still the system plays a big part. I've said it a bunch but Tyrod and Alex Smith are similar to me. Those guys better have a low percentage of unforced errors because the majority of their attempts are fairly controlled. They aren't trying to split 3 defenders up the seam. Someone like Jameis will make some wow throws and miss on some wow throws. The Bills (and Chiefs) aren't even attempting those types of throws. They are so concerned with turnovers that they just throw it away, scramble or take the sack. It is just a different philosophy so it is hard to compare across the league. Edited November 2, 2016 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bookie Man Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 Thanks again Boce. Good work. I'd like to see Tyrod do a little more pre snap also. Here it seems the route combination would work well with Butler playing off of Powell here close to the 5 yard line. There is direct pressure up the middle and Tyrod scrambles and throws it away. But if he recognizes this pre snap, it looks like it would be an easy touchdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 I would think that his number's are pretty close and if anything on the low side. The Bills don't take many chances in the passing game. 5 is probably the perfect number to judge Tyrod on. I would think that someone like Jameis for example may be 8 or so. That is the design of their offense. The Bills don't try to make difficult throws which leads to unforced errors. In addition, they pass the ball less. A % of "unforced error" throws is probably the most accurate way to compare guys. Even still the system plays a big part. I've said it a bunch but Tyrod and Alex Smith are similar to me. Those guys better have a low percentage of unforced errors because the majority of their attempts are fairly controlled. They aren't trying to split 3 defenders up the seam. Someone like Jameis will make some wow throws and miss on some wow throws. The Bills (and Chiefs) are even attempting those types of throws. They are so concerned with turnovers that they just throw it away, scramble or take the sack. It is just a different philosophy so it is hard to compare across the league. Yes i get that, and again not dumping on it. Just it is an area that can grow %of unforced errors (your right) is probably the best way to do it. But all i was trying to find out was where this number was.coming from so your Really Comparing 2016 TT to 2015 TT, not 2016 TT to a sampling of 2015 QBs. Thats all i wanted to know gives me context is all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 Let me just remind everyone that this guy is a biased fan just like all of us. His standards for a QB unforced error and sufficient line protection are not only subjective, but they have an inherit bias. I appreciate (I really do) the effort that you make, but it's clear that your interest in stats has confused you into listing arbitrary variables as facts. If it is clear what is he missing? I think that any review is clearly subjective but the margin for error isn't much on any given play. The overwhelming majority of plays you can identify the reason that a play broke down (especially with All 22). Yes i get that, and again not dumping on it. Just it is an area that can grow %of unforced errors (your right) is probably the best way to do it. But all i was trying to find out was where this number was.coming from so your Really Comparing 2016 TT to 2015 TT, not 2016 TT to a sampling of 2015 QBs. Thats all i wanted to know gives me context is all I think that is fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bocephuz Posted November 2, 2016 Author Share Posted November 2, 2016 I completely understand. I am just saying it is hard to really come up with that comparative number when we really only look at the Bills QBs and the Bills OL. If anything it can be used as a comparison or growth of regression compared to last year is all i am saying. Not dumping on the stat or your analysis, appreciate it, sorry if it came off that way. Just trying to get context on how these comparables came about It's a valid point regarding Bills QB vs rest of league. The heart of my analysis is to give an honest picture of how much pass rush affects any particular throw and how much is on the QB himself. I started this because I was trying to figure how how much of EJ's issues were due to bad o line play and how much was on him alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bocephuz Posted November 2, 2016 Author Share Posted November 2, 2016 Thanks again Boce. Good work. I'd like to see Tyrod do a little more pre snap also. Here it seems the route combination would work well with Butler playing off of Powell here close to the 5 yard line. There is direct pressure up the middle and Tyrod scrambles and throws it away. But if he recognizes this pre snap, it looks like it would be an easy touchdown. Good observation. I still think TT is going off of pre-determined reads from the called play and he isn't really at a level of awareness to execute the kind of pre snap improvisation you point out here I would think that his number's are pretty close and if anything on the low side. The Bills don't take many chances in the passing game. 5 is probably the perfect number to judge Tyrod on. I would think that someone like Jameis for example may be 8 or so. That is the design of their offense. The Bills don't try to make difficult throws which leads to unforced errors. In addition, they pass the ball less. A % of "unforced error" throws is probably the most accurate way to compare guys. Even still the system plays a big part. I've said it a bunch but Tyrod and Alex Smith are similar to me. Those guys better have a low percentage of unforced errors because the majority of their attempts are fairly controlled. They aren't trying to split 3 defenders up the seam. Someone like Jameis will make some wow throws and miss on some wow throws. The Bills (and Chiefs) aren't even attempting those types of throws. They are so concerned with turnovers that they just throw it away, scramble or take the sack. It is just a different philosophy so it is hard to compare across the league. TT and Alex Smith are good comparison. Both mobile and risk averse. Smith has better footwork and is better at timing routes... TT is better at deep ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nihilarian Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 Good stuff Bo, thanks for posting. I think there are also so many variables to take into account such as the quality of the receivers out on the field the QB is attempting to throw to as I highly doubt most of the Bills players out on the field against the Patriots wouldn't even make the starting roster of the majority of NFL teams. Then both Woods and Clay were dinged up and Clay left the game for a time from another injury. Woods foot must have been bothering him because he wasn't able to make his cuts on some plays. If you look at the NFL receiving stats Robert Woods is the Buffalo Bills leading receiver currently ranked as the 83rd best in receiving yards Charles Clay is right behind him ranked at 92! To put into context how much Tyrod is missing Sammy Watkins, Watkins finished the 2015 season as the 22nd best receiver in yards. Talking about the Bills QB stats playing in games without starting RB LeSean McCoy who is still listed as the 6th best rusher after missing two games and without the only elite receiver on the team you might as well be attempting to feel the nads on a sleeping grizzly because it ain't gonna end well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bocephuz Posted November 2, 2016 Author Share Posted November 2, 2016 Good stuff Bo, thanks for posting. I think there are also so many variables to take into account such as the quality of the receivers out on the field the QB is attempting to throw to as I highly doubt most of the Bills players out on the field against the Patriots wouldn't even make the starting roster of the majority of NFL teams. Then both Woods and Clay were dinged up and Clay left the game for a time from another injury. Woods foot must have been bothering him because he wasn't able to make his cuts on some plays. If you look at the NFL receiving stats Robert Woods is the Buffalo Bills leading receiver currently ranked as the 83rd best in receiving yards Charles Clay is right behind him ranked at 92! To put into context how much Tyrod is missing Sammy Watkins, Watkins finished the 2015 season as the 22nd best receiver in yards. Talking about the Bills QB stats playing in games without starting RB LeSean McCoy who is still listed as the 6th best rusher after missing two games and without the only elite receiver on the team you might as well be attempting to feel the nads on a sleeping grizzly because it ain't gonna end well. All valid points. If there was one takeaway from my post I would highlight it would be that while the O line had breakdowns it would be unfair to pin the majority of the O's issues in the passing game on poor protection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bocephuz Posted November 2, 2016 Author Share Posted November 2, 2016 Keep up the good work. We appreciate it! 👍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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