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"Experts" Picks Week 12 vs the Chiefs


CodeMonkey

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CBS with Spread (Bills +3.5) : 7 take Chiefs, 1 took the Bills. (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/against-the-spread/12)

CBS Straight Up: All 8 take Chiefs. (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/straight-up/12)

ESPN: Clean sweep, all 12 and Pick'Em took the Chiefs with one not picking.. (http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks)

Microsoft Cortana (Went 9-5 in week 11): Chiefs 63% chance of winning. (http://www.cortanapredictions.com/)

FiveThirtyEight: (Went 10-4 in week 11): Chiefs 70% chance of winning with an Elo point spread of 6. (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/)

Amos: (Went 10-4 in week 11) Chiefs 66% chance of winning. (http://trevorbischoff.com/nfl-2015-week-12-predictions/)

FiveThirtyEight predicts a 8-8 season record for the Bills this season with a 31% (down from 36%) chance of making the playoffs and a less than 1% (unchanged) chance of winning it all. Could be worse I suppose, 25% through the hockey season and it puts the Sabres chances of making the playoffs at 8.6% ;)

Amos predicts a 9-7 season record for the Bills.

SportsClubStats (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/Buffalo.html) predicts a record of 8-8 for the Bills this season with a 33.2% (down from 40.9%) chance of making the playoffs.

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Edited by CodeMonkey
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I wonder ... how many times did they (man and machine) predict wrong for the Bills?

 

Man picks the Bills to lose; Bills W, man predict Bills to W the Bills to lose

538 is my favorite and it is easy to look back with them:

 

Won against Miami, given a 49% chance to win so it basically called a coin flip

 

Lost to the Giants when given a 72% chance to win

 

Lost to Jax when given a 76% chance to win

 

Beat the Jets when given a 44% chance to win

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If you ignore the coin flip, they have 6 right and 3 wrong so far. I think that would mean bet what they say, if anything :)

I must have misread the text as it might be misleading. As I read this the following were all wrong

 

Lost to the Giants when given a 72% chance to win - Who had 72% to win Bills or Giants?

Lost to Jax when given a 76% chance to win - Who had 76% to win Bills or Jax?

Beat the Jets when given a 44% chance to win - Who had 44% to win Bills or NYETS?

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Love this site: http://nflpickwatch.com/

 

So far, 94% pick Chiefs to win, though not all picks are in.

 

Interesting site.

 

"Team with the Best Defense" picks the Chiefs (58% correct on season)

"Team with the Best QB" picks Buffalo Bills (58% correct on season)

 

I would actually predict that the Bills defense plays better from here on out this season. I also think Alex Smith is the better QB, in terms of "who would I rather have on this team".

Edited by Wazzu Bill
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I must have misread the text as it might be misleading. As I read this the following were all wrong

 

Lost to the Giants when given a 72% chance to win - Who had 72% to win Bills or Giants?

Lost to Jax when given a 76% chance to win - Who had 76% to win Bills or Jax?

Beat the Jets when given a 44% chance to win - Who had 44% to win Bills or NYETS?

Bills had 72% chance to win against the Giants, and lost the game. Those are the 3 Bills games 538 got wrong (plus the coin flip) of the 10 that have been played.

CBS completed and ESPN added.

Edited by CodeMonkey
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Added sportsclubstats which thinks this KC game is pretty much do or die for the Bills.

If the Bills win, their chances of making it to the playoffs goes up to 60% whereas if they lose, it goes under 20%.

yeah, next two games pretty much say it all for this season.... two conference games against teams with same record. this is it. Go Bills

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