dubs Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Time to get nuts. I heard Schoop talking about this the other day and kind of agree. In most situations, why punt? Analytics suggest going for it on fourth down is a better play than punting. For the Bills, it makes even more sense. If they know they have 4 downs to get 10 yards, it makes more sense to run the ball more. Can we just average 2.6 yards a carry? Throw in a play fake now and then. Slow down the game. Basically everything we don't do. At this point, anything different would be a welcome and likely positive change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkAF43 Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Time to get nuts. I heard Schoop talking about this the other day and kind of agree. In most situations, why punt? Analytics suggest going for it on fourth down is a better play than punting. For the Bills, it makes even more sense. If they know they have 4 downs to get 10 yards, it makes more sense to run the ball more. Can we just average 2.6 yards a carry? Throw in a play fake now and then. Slow down the game. Basically everything we don't do. At this point, anything different would be a welcome and likely positive change. wow. just wow. No, no and a side helping of no. Schopp is an idiot. He's the same moron that suggested in the Tampa game to have our defense let TB score on every single play just so our offense can get more work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dean Cain Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 If you run that offense you might as well get Tebow to play QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted August 29, 2014 Author Share Posted August 29, 2014 It's not just Schoop. It's actually advanced analytics that suggest punting from anywhere beyond your own 40 is a bad decision. Gregg Easterbrook from TMQ says the same thing. If you're pinned deep, obviously you punt. Or if you're 4th and 7, punt. But in many other, common situations, if you know that you have 4 downs to get a first, it changes the play calling and makes runs possible on downs like 3rd and 5 or 6. Or we could just keep doing what we've been doing instead of trying to innovate. That usually works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Someday Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Time to get nuts. I heard Schoop talking about this the other day and kind of agree. In most situations, why punt? Analytics suggest going for it on fourth down is a better play than punting. For the Bills, it makes even more sense. If they know they have 4 downs to get 10 yards, it makes more sense to run the ball more. Can we just average 2.6 yards a carry? Throw in a play fake now and then. Slow down the game. Basically everything we don't do. At this point, anything different would be a welcome and likely positive change. I've seen the story about the high school coach that does this and it works for them. This isn’t a high school team…we’re like a D3 college team at worst!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quinnearlysghost88 Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 This is where we're at. I mean i've weathered some preseason TBD storms in the past. I've read some threads that made me not come back until opening day, but we are at defcon 1 (1 is the worst, contrary to belief). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 https://twitter.com/NYT4thDownBot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pimp on da' net Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 wow. just wow. No, no and a side helping of no. Schopp is an idiot. He's the same moron that suggested in the Tampa game to have our defense let TB score on every single play just so our offense can get more work. I totally agree with you. Everytime he gets on this rant I change the station...it's an obvious attempt at shock jocking to spur discussion (which isn't that bad of an attempt but get over it!). But he's just SO smug that he really believes his own hyperbole... Analytics are numbers and stats that don't account for realistic situations ie., weather, opponents strength & weakness or the strategy within the game. It's like the fantasy nerds way of affecting the reality of the game. It should be put into perspective. I can see that in specific cases where it may apply ie. red zone & goal line situations and the opponents trends in certain situations, that's about it!!! How about having a good game plan & finding the right match ups for your team to be successful & leave the virtual game for fantasy football leagues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Shoop is an idiot, but even for him this is stupid. Yes, let's give the opponents great starting position on their drives. Brilliant! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 (edited) This is where we're at. I mean i've weathered some preseason TBD storms in the past. I've read some threads that made me not come back until opening day, but we are at defcon 1 (1 is the worst, contrary to belief). Yep. It's cocked pistol time. Nuclear war imminent. Maximum readiness. LOL Edited August 29, 2014 by Stopthepain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted August 29, 2014 Author Share Posted August 29, 2014 I know it's pretty unconventional and sounds crazy, but there is definitely a school of thought that's pretty well articulated that supports the idea. For Buffalo, we'd run 3 WR sets with Watkins, Williams, and Woods. Chandler as TE and Spiller as the lone back. Spread out the field a bit and create some space. On Third down and 4 - 7 yards, we'd bring the run back as an option. We'd also keep the defense on their toes a bit more and hopefully wear them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattsox Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Time to get nuts. I heard Schoop talking about this the other day and kind of agree. In most situations, why punt? Analytics suggest going for it on fourth down is a better play than punting. For the Bills, it makes even more sense. If they know they have 4 downs to get 10 yards, it makes more sense to run the ball more. Can we just average 2.6 yards a carry? Throw in a play fake now and then. Slow down the game. Basically everything we don't do. At this point, anything different would be a welcome and likely positive change. I am even more cut throat to this approach. Why hold 2 roster spots for a Kicker and Punter? Why not have a specialist that does both. You get an extra roster spot. You shouldn't punt unless you're on your 40-45 yd line. If you punt 46-their end, what's the point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hullhawk Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 SIGH. it works till defenses figure out that you go fo rit allthe time,and put 11 guys on the line. its goal line defense. and as I've said on other threads, you are guaranting points to the other team. Even if your 4th down conversion rate is 70% you are still losing against a team that punts. BTW I happen to be an analyst and can tell you that the data that those analysts are using is skewed. AND skewed badly. there are so many variables to consider and you would have to look at every 4th down by every team, and take into consideration EVERY variable and weight each one and then do correlation and causation studies... and you'd have to d it over a signifgant amount of time to get a large enough sample siaze that the results will mean something. I am sure they haven't done that. Mostly because the data probably isn't there. For instance, what defense were the opposing team playing against? are they good agains t the run in short yardage? what alignment were they in. How good was the offense, were they running the ball well that day, what was the score? where were they on the field, what was the weather, was it a fluke play(defender fell down, tipped pass that went right toyour own guy, etc), what injuries on both teams, what were the teams records, were they playing at home, on grass? astroturf? What was crowd noise like that day, attendence. at thats just off the top of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted August 29, 2014 Author Share Posted August 29, 2014 I totally agree with you. Everytime he gets on this rant I change the station...it's an obvious attempt at shock jocking to spur discussion (which isn't that bad of an attempt but get over it!). But he's just SO smug that he really believes his own hyperbole... Analytics are numbers and stats that don't account for realistic situations ie., weather, opponents strength & weakness or the strategy within the game. It's like the fantasy nerds way of affecting the reality of the game. It should be put into perspective. I can see that in specific cases where it may apply ie. red zone & goal line situations and the opponents trends in certain situations, that's about it!!! How about having a good game plan & finding the right match ups for your team to be successful & leave the virtual game for fantasy football leagues? They don't? Numbers and statistics matter in many other sports and industries. Baseball has been doing this for years and it's worked to some degree. In business, it works. But for football it can't? I don't agree. Like everything, you have to use it smartly. You can't just go for it on every 4th down but rather know when the advantage is to go for it. It's like the QB sneak. It works 99% of the time on short yardage, yet for some reason Buffalo never runs it. Instead we turn around, bring the ball backwards and hand it to a guy hoping he can get three yards (2 behind the line) against a stacked line of scrimmage instead of spreading out th defense and running a sneak for a yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 I know it's pretty unconventional and sounds crazy, but there is definitely a school of thought that's pretty well articulated that supports the idea. For Buffalo, we'd run 3 WR sets with Watkins, Williams, and Woods. Chandler as TE and Spiller as the lone back. Spread out the field a bit and create some space. On Third down and 4 - 7 yards, we'd bring the run back as an option. We'd also keep the defense on their toes a bit more and hopefully wear them out. And when it's 4th and 25, on your own 10, because of multiple holding penalties and/or tackles for loss, just go for it. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quinnearlysghost88 Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 "and it's another Bills four and out" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted August 29, 2014 Author Share Posted August 29, 2014 And when it's 4th and 25, on your own 10, because of multiple holding penalties and/or tackles for loss, just go for it. Right? Uh...no dean. You wouldn't. That would fall into th category of doing it smartly. As I said earlier, punt when you are pinned back in your own side of the field or it's a long conversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Dubs, you're definitely onto something, which is that teams should punt less frequently. I can't stand seeing a punt from the opponent's 40 yard line with 3 yards left to go. And coaches, for the most part, know that they're playing against the odds by punting. They also know that the typical football fan will want to crucify their ass if the smart tactic fails, so they play conservatively. One caveat I'd add is that game-situation plays a role. If you're ahead by 10 points with 6 minutes left to go, I think that the correct move is pinning the opponent at their own 10 yard line and letting the clock work against them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted August 29, 2014 Author Share Posted August 29, 2014 Dubs, you're definitely onto something, which is that teams should punt less frequently. I can't stand seeing a punt from the opponent's 40 yard line with 3 yards left to go. And coaches, for the most part, know that they're playing against the odds by punting. They also know that the typical football fan will want to crucify their ass if the smart tactic fails, so they play conservatively. One caveat I'd add is that game-situation plays a role. If you're ahead by 10 points with 6 minutes left to go, I think that the correct move is pinning the opponent at their own 10 yard line and letting the clock work against them. Totally agree. My title was probably a little misleading in that some folks might think I mean we should never punt under any circumstances. What I mean in reality is what you've suggested. Once we cross our own 40 (situation dictated), we should start calling plays like we have 4 downs to get a first. It allows us to focus more on our running game, keeps the defense guessing more on 3rd and 4th downs, and keeps their defense out there longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Uh...no dean. You wouldn't. That would fall into th category of doing it smartly. As I said earlier, punt when you are pinned back in your own side of the field or it's a long conversion. Totally agree. My title was probably a little misleading in that some folks might think I mean we should never punt under any circumstances. What I mean in reality is what you've suggested. Once we cross our own 40 (situation dictated), we should start calling plays like we have 4 downs to get a first. It allows us to focus more on our running game, keeps the defense guessing more on 3rd and 4th downs, and keeps their defense out there longer. Well, yes it was misleading. As was the original post and the post I responded to earlier. No punts is far different than fewer punts. If we had a great punter, I'd tend to disagree. But Moorman has been miserable this preseason and wasn't much better last year. If he could be relied upon to get the ball inside the 10 (or even 15) consistently, I'd still probably choose to punt more often than not. But once you are inside that grey area, where it's too far for a FG but a punt would likely go out of the end zone, then sure. Give it a go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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