SageAgainstTheMachine Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Well, yes it was misleading. As was the original post and the post I responded to earlier. No punts is far different than fewer punts. If we had a great punter, I'd tend to disagree. But Moorman has been miserable this preseason and wasn't much better last year. If he could be relied upon to get the ball inside the 10 (or even 15) consistently, I'd still probably choose to punt more often than not. But once you are inside that grey area, where it's too far for a FG but a punt would likely go out of the end zone, then sure. Give it a go. Moorman is really puzzling me. I understand how age would affect his ability to boom it 65 yards from the end zone, but it's beyond me why a wily old punter would be getting worse at directional kicking and placing the ball at the 5. He's essentially a mascot at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proteus Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 These guys who say you shouldn't punt are idiots! Except it has been mathematically proven that they are right. http://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/PAPER_NFL_JULY05_FORWEB_CORRECTED.pdf http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2006/never-punting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted August 29, 2014 Author Share Posted August 29, 2014 (edited) These guys who say you shouldn't punt are idiots! Except it has been mathematically proven that they are right. http://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/PAPER_NFL_JULY05_FORWEB_CORRECTED.pdf http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2006/never-punting This is great! Haven't been through them completely but this line is exactly what I was saying. "This is not about taking more risks and punting less often. That could cost you games depending on when you decided to punt and when you decided not to. The key is to never punt. Never punting takes away the risk because it allows the averages to work in your favor. It also opens you up to different play calling opportunities, primarily on third down. The two go together and are dependent on each other in order to make this work." For the Bills, I believe this is even more critical, since we are terrible in passing situations. Turing one obvious passing situation into a run or a pass is a big deal for a team like Buffalo. Except I'd disagree with the idea that you should NEVER punt. Some situations make it a prudent choice. 4th and 20, 4th and 6 from our own 15, up 21 with 5 minutes left and at our 35. Things like that. Edited August 29, 2014 by dubs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterpan Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 It's not just Schoop. It's actually advanced analytics that suggest punting from anywhere beyond your own 40 is a bad decision. Gregg Easterbrook from TMQ says the same thing. If you're pinned deep, obviously you punt. Or if you're 4th and 7, punt. But in many other, common situations, if you know that you have 4 downs to get a first, it changes the play calling and makes runs possible on downs like 3rd and 5 or 6. Or we could just keep doing what we've been doing instead of trying to innovate. That usually works. There lies the fault in your plan. How do we ever get across our own 40? Or even gain 3 yards on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted August 29, 2014 Author Share Posted August 29, 2014 There lies the fault in your plan. How do we ever get across our own 40? Or even gain 3 yards on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down?? Haha. Good point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 These guys who say you shouldn't punt are idiots! Except it has been mathematically proven that they are right. http://eml.berkeley....B_CORRECTED.pdf http://www.footballo...6/never-punting I perused these (I admit I didn't read completely through them yet). Of course they do not PROVE it is better to not punt. At best, they may support the notion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 . And coaches, for the most part, know that they're playing against the odds by punting. They also know that the typical football fan will want to crucify their ass if the smart tactic fails, so they play conservatively. This is the real crux of the matter. When it fails, and it will , just not as often as it succeeds, the coach will get killed. Punting is conventional wisdom, no one gets fired for that.Praised when it works 3 times, but killed the one time it didn't. This has been proven in so many studies it is really comical how more coaches, especially those in trouble, dont do this. Not quite to the extent of not punting, but Rivera last year, after the Bills loss, started going more for 4th down and it changed their whole season. Also, i am pretty sure, but not 100%, one could extend this and prove that always going for two is a way better option than ever kicking the extra point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragonborn10 Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 It's not just HS coaches. Chip Kelly routinely went for first down on fourth instead of punting of kicking FG. However this is the NFL. The kickers and punters are much more skilled and consistent. The sweet spot is from midfield to the opponents 35. A bad punt and you might net 20 yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proteus Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 I perused these (I admit I didn't read completely through them yet). Of course they do not PROVE it is better to not punt. At best, they may support the notion. Yea ok. Watch this.http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AGDaOJAYHfo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mountainwampus Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 I agree with the notion of not punting but not with this team. In fact, the D on this team might be more capable of scoring than the offense. Field position is important when the D is this good. My priority would be finding a new lefty punter. (Belichick likes lefty punters so we should too.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 This is the real crux of the matter. When it fails, and it will , just not as often as it succeeds, the coach will get killed. Punting is conventional wisdom, no one gets fired for that.Praised when it works 3 times, but killed the one time it didn't. This has been proven in so many studies it is really comical how more coaches, especially those in trouble, dont do this. Not quite to the extent of not punting, but Rivera last year, after the Bills loss, started going more for 4th down and it changed their whole season. Also, i am pretty sure, but not 100%, one could extend this and prove that always going for two is a way better option than ever kicking the extra point. The thing is, let's assume that going for it under certain succeeds three times out of four. This is true with a small sample size (comparatively) since teams typically punt. If teams (or even one team) goes for it on every occasion, the mindset of the defense changes. It's not longer a surprise, or unusual. It's now expected. I would expect that ratio to shift, once those changes were noticed. But for a short time , you might be able to take advantage of the mismatch between perception and reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hardcore Bills Fan Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 he says that all the time. He hates everything about the sport. He's Sullys lap dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 (edited) I totally agree with you. Everytime he gets on this rant I change the station...it's an obvious attempt at shock jocking to spur discussion (which isn't that bad of an attempt but get over it!). But he's just SO smug that he really believes his own hyperbole... Analytics are numbers and stats that don't account for realistic situations ie., weather, opponents strength & weakness or the strategy within the game. It's like the fantasy nerds way of affecting the reality of the game. It should be put into perspective. I can see that in specific cases where it may apply ie. red zone & goal line situations and the opponents trends in certain situations, that's about it!!! How about having a good game plan & finding the right match ups for your team to be successful & leave the virtual game for fantasy football leagues? Yah none of these fancy schmancy numbers and stats are based on stuff that happens in real games. Lets get to the real situation on September 7th. Obviously the Bills are in tough vs the '85 Bears in a snowstorm and not an awful defense in sunshine. Edited August 30, 2014 by BuffOrange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Who is Yuri? Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 This is like saying that the average acceleration time for cars is 0-60 in 8.5 seconds. But we don't own the average car, we own a lousy car. Just because we own a car, does not mean that we can expect to accelerate 0-60 in 8.5 seconds. The average team many have that sort of success on 4th down, but our team will not, and this no punt strategy will backfire badly. Tom Brady might convert 4th downs most of the time, but the reason that they're going for it, is because they have Tom Brady. A Porsche 911 might try to make a stoplight that you'd have no business trying to beat in your Ford Pinto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Time to get nuts. I heard Schoop talking about this the other day and kind of agree. In most situations, why punt? Analytics suggest going for it on fourth down is a better play than punting. For the Bills, it makes even more sense. If they know they have 4 downs to get 10 yards, it makes more sense to run the ball more. Can we just average 2.6 yards a carry? Throw in a play fake now and then. Slow down the game. Basically everything we don't do. At this point, anything different would be a welcome and likely positive change. I'm for getting rid of all phases of the kicking game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 (edited) I agree with the notion of not punting but not with this team. In fact, the D on this team might be more capable of scoring than the offense. Field position is important when the D is this good. My priority would be finding a new lefty punter. (Belichick likes lefty punters so we should too.) Conventional wisdom is often a whole lot more conventional than it is wise. If you have a defense that can stop the other team cold, then your offense should take more risks, not less. Because succeeding on 4th down even occasionally will get you some points, and failing on 4th down is less likely to result in points for your opponent than if your defense was only average. Let me guess, in baseball you believe the myth that left-handed hitters handle low inside pitches better than right-handers, even though the human body is symmetrical. Edited August 30, 2014 by ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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