WM's Pre-training Camp Roster Review

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

OK, I’m going to start this off my bluntly admitting that I am no expert. I am not a pundit, not a former player, not a coach. I’m just a fan who the offseason is killing by inches, and found himself cycling through my thoughts until words came out. This is here to help discuss, think, analyze, bull **** and otherwise pass the time until training camp starts and the real work begins. I did one of these before the draft, under similar circumstances, but things have changed a great deal since then.

 

So, here is my completely biased, untrained view of the Bills strength of roster by position group going into camp. Feel free to tell me how wrong I am.

 

 

Part 1: Offense

QB: The most important position in the game is the one that is most in the dark for this team. No matter how you slice it, no one in the organization is going to be able to completely predict whether or not EJ Manuel progresses this year, and if so, to what extent. Anyone who says otherwise is a liar.

 

When the Bills picked EJ Manuel, the consensus I heard was “He has great physical tools, but man, is he raw. I hope that he doesn’t have to go in right away, and can learn under Kolb for a few weeks while he gets ready.” We know how things went from there: Kolb had a mysterious run in with a rubber mat, and got his bell permanently rung in preseason. As a result, the raw rookie which everyone said wasn’t ready to play consistently was thrown right into the deep end and, shockingly, he didn’t play consistently. We saw flashes of great play in the winning touchdown drive in Week 2 and ripping the vaunted Jets defense in their second meeting. He also put up a pair of absolute stinkers on the road against the Steelers and Bucs and was often injured.

 

There are some signs of hope. EJ reportedly looked a bit more comfortable at the early parts of OTA’s this year and has gotten better at diagnosing defenses and Bills coches seem to be throwing the full playbook at him earlier. While he struggled a little at the first introduction, he looked better once minicamp arrived.

 

Hackett is no longer trying to shoulder the responsibility of gameplanning the entire offense AND helping along a young QB. He should be starting the season with another year of experience, a revamped offensive line and better receivers. Ideally, with an offseason to recuperate, work on his mechanics and get back with working on the chemistry with his receivers come training camp he’s back in the swing of things. On the other hand, he could simply never get his accuracy to a sufficient level, never get the mental speed for the game and get injured again and again. We won’t know until we see it.

 

So, what should we reasonably expect in regards to advancement from year 1 to year 2? We have gotten a little spoiled with rookie QB’s with the sudden emergence in 2012 of Luck, RGIII, Wilson and Kaep. But what about the guys who we knew were going to be projects? Two examples come to mind.

 

The person who I heard EJ most compared on to was Ryan Tannehill: a raw talent who is a project, but has some upside and great size. So how did he do?

 

2012: 16 games played, 3294 yards, 12 TD’s, 13 INT’s

2013: 16 games played, 3913 yards, 24 TD’s, 17 INT’s

 

While our memory of Tannehill is Mario stripping the ball away to help snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat, and shutting out the Phins in our last home game, he had a pretty decent season. He was top 15 in yards and touchdowns. The interceptions are a problem though, so I think it is to say that he was pretty close to middle of the road as far as starters go. That said, he was working with an offensive line that became a comedy punchline (no, I’m serious. The Martin/Incognito debacle was great comedian material) and he didn’t have a great run game to rely on. Considering the upgrades to the O-line the Bills made during the offseason, the well established run game, and upgrades and receiver, is this a fair comparison?

 

There does come to mind another player, one who works in a high tempo offense with a coach recently promoted from the college ranks with THE best run games in the league (#1 to our #2), with a decent O-line and a pretty good group of receivers. Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you Nick Foles of the Philadelphia Eagles.

 

Foles was a second round draft pick, taken in the same year as Wilson, Luck and Griffin. He rode the pine behind Michael Vick until (shockingly) Vick got hurt. He essentially got the treatment EJ was expected to get: get some time behind a starter, get up to speed, and we’ll see how things go. I remember watching him in 2012 and thinking that he looked pretty decent, but I never expected what would happen in 2013.

 

2012: 7 games played, 1699 yards, 6 TD, 5 INT (Compared to EJ, 10 GP, 1972 yards, 11 TD, 9 INT)

 

2013: 13 games played, 2891 yards, 27 TD, 2 INT

 

That’s pretty damn good. Now, some of that is the system. Some of it is having really talented people to work with and even then that sounds aberrationaly high. But if EJ winds up somewhere along this spectrum, I am entirely ok with that.

 

Thad Lewis came in and showed that he’s a pretty good backup. I don’t want him starting more than he has to, but if it is for a few weeks a year, I’m alright with that. Tuel is maddening, as he can once in a while make a number of good plays but then makes some boneheaded ones. I have zero knowledge on Dennis Dixon.

 

In the end, we really have doubled down on EJ. We can improve every other part of the team, but without some meaningful improvement the Bills will be spinning their wheels again.

 

RB and FB: The Bills should be a run first, second and third team. The team’s commitment to the run left them with the 2^nd best Yards per Game in the league. Yards per attempt was a lot less impressive, but a lot of that can be laid at the feet of the offensive line and injuries. With the revamped O-line, the position…frankly looks like it is overwhelmed with talent.

 

CJ Spiller is still probably the most talented player on the offense. He’s like a shot machine: if you keep plugging away once in a while he takes it to the house. However, he regressed last year when he kept trying to always take it outside. He might get those 30-50 yard runs, but he gets a lot that get stopped at the line.

 

Fred Jackson, while aging, still showed that he could punch the ball. He’s good for consistent yards of hard running and is easily the most dependable player at the position. I do think that he’s good for a very solid 1-2 punch for CJ this season, even if their individual numbers suffer for it. But I do have to ask: how many more years does he have in him? And, more to the point, is it worth gambling on by signing him to a new contract after this year? I have a feeling that if the Bills were going to choose one person to pursue for a new contract, it’s CJ and not Fred. Even then, I think there’s a chance they lose both. So, who else do they have?

 

Bryce Brown looks like a middle road between Spiller and Jackson. The consensus I’ve been hearing out of Philly is that sending Brown away wasn’t because he looked bad, but because he was looking at riding a lot of bench behind two incredible running backs, Sproles and McCoy. If this sounds familiar…well, it kind of is. That said, I am willing to bet that at least one of Spiller and Jackson goes down for a few games down the stretch so Brown is going to get his audition at some point.

 

Anthony “Boobie” Dixon is a very nice, value signing that the Bills picked up from San Fran. While it looks like he might be consigned to FB duty, early reports are in that he’s a pretty damn good North to South runner with a few moves. He doesn’t have Spiller’s elusiveness, but with a fresher set of legs I would not at all be shocked if this year is a tryout to see if he can replace Freddy next year if the Bills are ready to let Fred walk. The fact that he is a reliable special teamer to bolster that front makes this a good signing in my mind.

 

A full time Fullback is a dying position, so it is with a heavy heart that I put Frank “The Tank” Summers on the roster bubble. Ok, he doesn’t touch the ball all that often, but at 5’9 and 250 pounds this guy is a beast. Fullback isn’t a pretty job. You don’t get your name in the stat line nearly as often, and you find yourself ramming into defenders so the guy who gets paid more than you to look better than you. But I still do think that is has a place in the game. Summers is built like a brick and he doesn’t have too bad a set of hands either, and he has been a surprising receiving threat. While I privately suspect that he’ll be cut, and do believe that it’s hard to carry 5 backs in your roster, I do hope he makes it one more year.

 

Offensive Line:

We will see. Other than QB, this is the hardest unit for me to evaluate because as a whole and offensive line’s effectiveness depends on chemistry and how they handle contact, neither of which you are going to be able to fully evaluate in non-contact practices three weeks in. So a large part of this is conjecture based on what we saw last year and guessing at how they look with new talent.

 

One of the biggest quoted needs during the offseason was a tackle…with almost the most insistent implication that this way, the Bills could finally move Cordy Glenn to RT where the pundits said he would go all along. The implication is crap. During the offseason, Marrone looked at his very incomplete offensive line and attributed 1.5 sacks to Glenn’s play all last year. Two years ago he cut his teeth on some of the best defenses in the league and hung tough, and I think we are looking at a long term, high end starter, if not a Pro Bowler.

 

But I don’t think there was any denying that we would like to see an upgrade over Erik Pears. Pears didn’t make me wince as much as Colin Brown but he has never been the best run blocker and overall he seemed to lose a step in pass defense. Some of that is that teams decided the best way to deal with a rookie QB was to blitz the crap out of the line, but Pears has never been stupendous and he is already past 30. His play is not going to get better, and likely will get worse…but I don’t think that he’s gone quite yet. We’ve yet to establish anyone who will be clearly better and healthy by the start of the season.

 

As far as prospects to take over at RT, Cyrus Kouandjio looks like the first choice. There’s no denying that he’s got physical talent and a great deal of game tape. He seems to be a prototypical Right Tackle, and the phrase I’ve heard most to describe him is “road grader”. He likely doesn’t have the quickness to play Left Tackle, but his added size makes him look like he could be an amazing run blocker. This was a feature that was missing in Pears and likely hurt the Yards Per Attempt in the run game last season. He will make rookie mistakes though. It is a lot to ask him to step in and dominate immediately and I don’t doubt that a speed rush will get to him at some point.

 

I think I speak for everyone when I say that I am happy to see Chris Hairston return this offseason after missing all of last year. He did a decent job subbing in at LT, even when he wasn’t the first choice, and I like the flexibility to be able to swing to either guard position. Even better, we’ve seen him take a few snaps as RG. I am reminded of Andy Levitre and how he managed to play decently across the line in any spot center. Urbik was ok, and I don’t believe that he’s in a contract that would qualify him, in my mind, as a cap cut. Marrone does seem to want to upgrade the position, and I would expect to see a camp battle at RG.

.

The honest truth is that I’m not sure about Chris Williams quite yet. He may have graded as slightly better than Legursky overall, it really was that: only slightly better. I think he ought to be a reminded that there is no such thing as a “sure thing, first round pick” and that people should keep that in mind when discussing the merits of one player or another on draft day. There are a few bright spots to look at though. Williams got his PFF grading playing against the 1^st , 5^th and 6^th ranked defenses twice a year, and was at least consistent. With Marrone coaching, and between two very good players (Glenn and Wood) he really only has to be average. I am reminded that the year he was drafted in the first round was one where Marrone was the OC for the Saints, and after he was signed C. Williams mentioned how important Marrone's presence was in his choice to sign. I know that people have accused the Bills of trying to be more clever than they are...but really, the same could be said about the acquisition of Jerry Hughes (more on that later) and so far that has worked out well. It's a question mark, but even average play would be a welcome relief.

 

Center is being filled by the very capable Eric Wood. Wood finally put together a complete season, but I do worry a little about his propensity to get injured. So, as much as I hate to say it, I am not entirely against Legursky staying on to be a backup, barring a stroke of luck that finds a really solid, cheap backup to replace him.

 

I have left off, up until this point, two of the later round rookies. Cyril Richardson was considered by some to be 2^nd round talent, so I was happily surprised to see him available for the Bills to take in the 5^th. Reportedly he has struggled in OTAs, but…come on. He’s a fifth round pick. Henderson is interesting, just because of how highly touted he was and how far he plummeted. From what I’ve heard, he has all the physical gifts, he just needs to show up and get his head on straight. Both are later round picks, and I don’t expect either of them to win a starting job in camp. However, it seems entirely reasonable that they get red-shirted for a year

 

Long story short, there are still some questions: Can Chris Williams be an improvement? How quickly will Kouandjio adapt? But in the end, the biggest, most obvious holes have replacements. Glenn and Wood are both two very solid and now experienced players. Urbik, as a worst case scenario is OK. Hairston seems to be coming back, giving much needed depth, and there are some promising rookies developing in the pipeline. Without making any unrealistic predictions, I think that by the time the depth chart is worked out in camp, the starters will be unquestionably better and there will be better depth to handle the dings and nicks that are inevitable. Our run game should improve, and EJ should have that extra second in the pocket to help develop.

 

Tight End:

 

Count me as one of the people who had been pulling for the Bills to take a Tight End in the past draft. It isn’t that I am expected some magic combo of two Tight End formations that got popular a few years ago when Brady, Hernandez and Gronk showed it off. It was because two young quarterbacks, Andrew Luck and Nick Foles, managed to grow and thrive while having a dynamic playmaker TE to be their security blanket in the form of Coby Fleener and Zach Ertz. EJ’s accuracy has also been better over the middle of the field, so it seemed like a simple concept. Even if you didn’t pick up Ebron at 9 there certainly was talent in the later rounds in ASJ, Amaro and Niklas.

 

The Bills went with a flat “no one”. So summing up who we have is rather easy.

 

Chandler was resigned to a resounding chorus of “Meh” from the fans. Sadly, he’s the surest thing we’ve got. He has nice body size as a red zone target and is an alright blocker, but he doesn’t have great hands/chemistry with EJ, and where you throw him the ball is pretty much exactly where he is going to be stopped. I think it’s telling that he went on the market as a free agent, shopped around, and signed a contract for less money than he got last time. It does not inspire a ringing endorsement.

 

Lee Smith and Mike Cassauin are there as blockers, but they are hardly dynamic threats on offense. We barely saw anything from Chris Gragg last year so it’s hard to make a judgement on him, but we didn’t see a lot when we put him in. Again, he was a 7^th rounder, and you don’t want to quite pull the plug but unless he’s really just washing out.

 

As strange as it sounds for me to say, the few glowing embers of hope that are at the position are due to Tony Moeaki. He straddles the difference of Gragg’s speed and Chandler’s size. So far, the man has shown good route running and, more importantly, seems to be quickly developing chemistry with EJ. While the specter of injury is looming over him, I can see the possibility of him rotating with Chandler.

 

As a whole, I do expect more receiving production to come from the WR group than TE, but it does look like there are going to be a few OK options for EJ to work with.

 

Wide Receiver: I don’t believe in the idea of a pure “#1 receiver”. Wes Welker isn’t that prototypical model and he is a threat every time that he sets out on the field. So when I hear, “the Bills now have a #1 WR” I wince a little.

 

I was very vocal on draft night on how I thought the Bills gave up too much for Sammy Watkins. I still think that, until he proves me wrong. Draft day maneuverings aside, this is a time to evaluate the player, not the pick.

 

Watkins has great speed, good size and surprising power. He has a nice vertical, and for the most part, good hands. After having kicked the tires, I think he’ll be a very good player eventually. But there is definitely a lot that he needs to pick up and learn, and he is definitely going to need to work on his chemistry with EJ. His final year, teams were so afraid of his speed that they played off Watkins so deep that he didn’t need to work on routes. This will not be so in the NFL and now that the Pats have Revis, you know that those are going to be tough matchups for a rookie to beat. I expect him to mature as the season goes on but, to be blunt, I don’t think that he’s going to be a gamebreaking weapon yet.

 

Fortunately, he finds himself working with a very, very good supporting cast, each with specialties in different areas that make for a very complementary skill set. I really like the Mike Williams acquisition. For context, if I was told that the Bills has used their 6th round pick to get a receiver that was 6'1-6'2, and had 4.4-4.5 speed, and had a great vertical jump and "played bigger than their size" I would have asked "How did Sammy Watkins fall to the 6th round?"

 

I'll let that sink in for a moment. Mike Williams has the measurables and style that sounds strikingly close to Sammy Watkins. He has four years of league experience. From the highlights that I have seen (and they are admittedly his best work) they show a guy who has repeated won jump balls and knows how to position his body in ways that let him make moves on the ball for deep catches that likely would have been interceptions for 99% of other players. Even more important is the fact that, while Freeman was his QB, a lot of the highlights I see are passes that are high or late, and him making a big play on them. High and late passes are a knock on EJ I won't deny, so having someone who can still make plays on those is a plus in my book. In spite of Mike Rodak’s claims, I highly doubt that Williams is going anywhere. While he hasn’t done much in OTAs and minicamp, he was being limited due to injury (like a lot of players) and Williams sent a shot over Rodak’s bow by indirectly calling the man. Mike’s off the fields problems do concern me…a little. But when compared to teamwide drag racing, felony pot charges, strangling your fiancé and beating your baby momma, a criminal mischief and trespassing charge, throwing a wild party and getting stabbed (as opposed to the other way around) doesn’t really blip on my radar.

 

Woods might not be a game breaker, but he has great chemistry with EJ. Williams and Watkins got the initial credit as to why Stevie Johnson was expendable, but Woods already would have been vying for Stevie’s job. While I like Stevie, and wish him well, I think the Bills got the best out of him with Fitz. Wood’s precise route running really puts him on the right wavelength with EJ and has the flexibility to play outside or in the slot.

 

I do think that when all is said and done Watkins, Woods, and Williams are going to be operating out of a 3 WR set quite a bit. Rob Quinn has done as series of posts about the relatively simple triange/snag concepts that the Bills used a lot last year and I can really see them rotating around well. Williams is definitely an outside WR, but Woods and Watkins are both good enough to beat a great deal of nickel corners.

 

 

With that, I think TJ Graham is going to have to fight very hard to keep his job. I know he’s our favorite whipping boy, and he still has time to pull things together, but the fact of the matter is that in two years he hasn't shown us a lot. What he has shown is that he had run deep routes very quickly, and there is a place for that when you have someone who can throw in deep like EJ. But what his skillset can accomplish is already satisfied by Goodwin. Graham might be a hair faster, but Goodwin has great hands and more importantly, knows how to work a cornerback. A case study here is the second game against the Jets where Goodwin worked man to man on Cromartie, the guy who was supposed to justify Revis’ trade. Due to his speed, Goodwin was given a cushion early. Running short routes, he routinely managed to get 6-8 yards a catch and keep the chains moving. In the second half, when Cromartie stopped using the cushion and with a single deep safety, Goodwin beat the contact at the line and burned him for a deep touchdown. In my mind, he takes the role of Desean Jackson. If teams are sending in a single deep safety, Goodwin is there to take the top off the defense and keep them honest. Yes, it’s a situational role, but he is likely to contribute.

 

There are probably going to be another few camp bodies. Chris Hogan, Marcus Easly and Ramses Bardeen are names that I’ve been hearing and one or two will probably crack the roster, but at this point you are talking depth and special teams.

 

Offense Overview: The pieces look to be there. The young QB is about to enter his second season with a bit of chemistry with some players, a firmer grasp on the playbook and some better weapons. The offensive line has had its most obvious hole plugged, and has been flooded with young talent. Running back was always good and now has the potential to be the best group in the league. But right now, before the start of training camp, things are very incomplete. In the end, it’s all going to come down to the QB position. If the Bills obtain some consistency on QB play and if they have a strong defense, there is a chance they could go far.

 

Of course, those are some pretty big ifs.

[3rdand12]

Damned fine ramblings there Mister Merriman!

[Chandler#81]

No mention of Moeaki? He may become the starter @ TE.

 

Nice analysis. Success this season hinges on very good OL play. We'll go as far as they can take us. The less this team has to rely on Manuel, the better, IMO, and that's my biggest concern. Not because I simply don't believe EJ has what it takes -which I don't, because there isn't an experienced vet on the bench -and I don't mean 'Thad experience' Thad can win a couple games, maybe, but if we're say 7-5 when Glass-boy breaks down, I don't like our chances of finishing strong enough with him or Tuel. I think this is a major oversight by the FO and I fear the worst.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

No mention of Moeaki? He may become the starter @ TE.

 

 

I believe I did.

 

As strange as it sounds for me to say, the few glowing embers of hope that are at the position are due to Tony Moeaki. He straddles the difference of Gragg’s speed and Chandler’s size. So far, the man has shown good route running and, more importantly, seems to be quickly developing chemistry with EJ. While the specter of injury is looming over him, I can see the possibility of him rotating with Chandler.

 

But I do agree that the less the team relies on EJ the better.Right now, for this year, if EJ is a game manager I would be ok with that.

[machine gun kelly]

Hemingway stated his best book was "The Old Man and the Sea". Why? He stated he said more with less.

 

Merriman, I'm sure this was a good post as you have lots of good thoughts, but there are very few people that will read that thread. Not knocking you. Just sayin. Can you bullet point some of your thoughts?

 

FWIW- if your comments are that we will improve this year, I believe your right.

[Whites Bay]

Hemingway stated his best book was "The Old Man and the Sea". Why? He stated he said more with less.

 

Merriman, I'm sure this was a good post as you have lots of good thoughts, but there are very few people that will read that thread. Not knocking you. Just sayin. Can you bullet point some of your thoughts?

 

FWIW- if your comments are that we will improve this year, I believe your right.

He also said "Baseball is a game for louts". Sometimes "Less" isn't "More". Nicely done, Merriman.

[Bob Malooga]

I think you put a little too much thought into this..."He straddles the difference of Gragg's speed and Chandler's size."

 

Chris Gragg (6-3, 244) and Tony Moeaki (6-3, 252) are just about the same exact size.

 

Also, Gragg ran a forty time of 4.46, while Moeaki ran a forty time of 4.69, and Chandler ran a forty time of 4.78...I would say Moeaki's speed is closer to Chandler's.

Edited June 30, 2014 by Bob Malooga

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Hemingway stated his best book was "The Old Man and the Sea". Why? He stated he said more with less.

 

Merriman, I'm sure this was a good post as you have lots of good thoughts, but there are very few people that will read that thread. Not knocking you. Just sayin. Can you bullet point some of your thoughts?

 

FWIW- if your comments are that we will improve this year, I believe your right.

 

The funny thing was,my first thought was to break it up more to get more chances to bump the thread. And typically, I do write as a minimalist, it's just that there's been so much that had changed in many of the offense position groups, and you have to tread carefully when EJ debating is concerned so I wanted hard numbers for that.

 

I think you put a little too much thought into this..."He straddles the difference of Gragg's speed and Chandler's size."

 

Chris Gragg (6-3, 244) and Tony Moeaki (6-3, 252) are just about the same exact size.

 

Also, Gragg ran a forty time of 4.46, while Moeaki ran a forty time of 4.69, and Chandler ran a forty time of 4.78...I would say Moeaki's speed is closer to Chandler's.

 

So...he's a bit heavier and slower than Gragg, and is lighter and faster than Chandler...

 

In all seriousness though, I do think that he splits the difference. Gragg in pretty much entirely an unknown to most fans, without knowing the inner workings of what's happened in the locker room last year. Moeaki is a mystery, but less so. We know that he has but up decent numbers, but not those reflecting where he was drafted. From the highlights I've seen, he seems to be more acrobatic and more dynamic than Chandler. Chandler has a knack for getting open, and his size can win a lot of fights in the end zone. But YAC...

 

If the idea is to give EJ a security blanket, a guy who he can make the check down and then take the ball upfield for the yards to get a first down, Chandler isn't the guy. Moeaki might be.

[YoloinOhio]

Great write-up!!