The dire state of Bills QB play

[JPS]

1st of all….great post Dave….best I've read in a while.

 

2nd, I think the Bills take a flier on a Josh McCown or another veteran FA before they invest another high pick in a QB. Build the line 1 more year and find out about EJ.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Pretty small sample size to be working with, IMO. It's a lot easier to gather and compare data when athletes are all performing the same task, I.e. hitting in baseball. Working with a pool reduced to first rounders at a single position over 8 years or so - during which the game itself has changed - is extremely difficult. Something to remember when we berate the talent evaluators. They have a really hard job, at least when it comes to the world of sport.

 

This list also must be prior to Alex Smith, Vick and Rodgers, though Rodgers of course sat his rookie year and then some.

It looks like he is using the list of "rookie" QBs (the list included Doug Flutie's 1998 season, and he was not a rookie), who threw 300+ passes. Here is SJBF's link.

 

http://www.sportingc...t-20-years.aspx

 

Same with passer rating differential:

 

http://sportsillustr...g.differential/

 

"The Most Important Stat in Football"

 

Well, there is a big difference between quarterback rating differential and a list of quarterback ratings over 20 years including qualifiers. QB rating differential is the difference between opposing teams in the same season. The latter begs the question of what the qualifiers are for, how large do you weigh rule changes and other changes in the game itself, and whether there is an agenda for the list maker.

 

How can one look at a list with Rick Mirer, Tim Couch, and Brandon Weeden as 3 of the "best" QBs without a hint of skepticism? How is it Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning are not on the list? Andrew Luck carried his team as a rookie, as evidenced by his average passing yards per game, but looks average on this list. Then there is the inclusion of the well-worn veteran Doug Flutie.

 

Here is a list of QB ratings for 2013.

 

http://www.pro-footb...013/passing.htm

 

EJ Manuel is 29th on this list putting him between Christian Ponder and Jason Campbell.

[RuntheDamnBall]

 

It looks like he is using the list of "rookie" QBs (the list included Doug Flutie's 1998 season, and he was not a rookie), who threw 300+ passes. Here is SJBF's link.

 

http://www.sportingc...t-20-years.aspx

 

 

 

Well, there is a big difference between quarterback rating differential and a list of quarterback ratings over 20 years including qualifiers. QB rating differential is the difference between opposing teams in the same season. The latter begs the question of what the qualifiers are for, how large do you weigh rule changes and other changes in the game itself, and whether there is an agenda for the list maker.

 

How can one look at a list with Rick Mirer, Tim Couch, and Brandon Weeden as 3 of the "best" QBs without a hint of skepticism? How is it Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning are not on the list? Andrew Luck carried his team as a rookie, as evidenced by his average passing yards per game, but looks average on this list. Then there is the inclusion of the well-worn veteran Doug Flutie.

 

Here is a list of QB ratings for 2013.

 

http://www.pro-footb...013/passing.htm

 

EJ Manuel is 29th on this list putting him between Christian Ponder and Jason Campbell.

FWIW Eli was NOT good early on, and also had time behind Warner. There was a lot of time where people thought he was going to flame out. They stuck with him and he developed as they acquired more weapons and he acquired more experience. He could potentially be a fine comparison for EJ.

[thewildrabbit]

2013 was bad, but it's of a piece with Buffalo Bills football as we've come to know and love it.

 

Here's the sorry recent history of the Bills' collective passer rating over the past 20 years:

 

2013: 75.0 QB EJ Manuel 1st round #16- no O linemen

2012: 82.2 no QB drafted- 2nd round Cordy Glenn OT- 5th round Zerbie Sanders OT- Mark Asper G

2011: 77.0 no QB drafted- 2nd #4 Chris Hairston G/T

2010: 75.2 no QB drafted- 5th round Ed Wang OT- 7th round Kyle Calloway

2009: 71.7 no QB drafted- 2nd #1 pick Eric Wood C- 2nd #2 pick Andy Levitre OG

2008: 81.3 no QB drafted- 7th round Demetress Bell OT

2007: 73.8 3rd round QB Trent Edwards 5 years- no O linemen

2006: 84.6 no QB drafted - 5th round Brad Butler 4 years, 7th round Terrence Pennington T. 7th round Aaron Merz G

2005: 75.4 no QB drafted -4th round Duke Preston C- 4 years-6th round Justin Giesinger G

2004: 76.7 QB 2nd #1 pick @ 22 JP Losman 5 years-7th round Dylan McFarland 2 years and out

2003: 69.4 no QB drafted- 5th round Ben Sobieski T

2002: 86.0 no QB drafted- 1st round #4 overall Mike D Williams OT, 4 years Bills- 7th round Mike Pucillo G

2001: 74.7 no QB drafted- 2nd, 3 round pick Jonas Jennings OT. 4 years Bills, 4 years 49ers

2000: 84.3 no QB drafted- no O linemen

1999: 78.1 no QB drafted- no O linemen

1998: 91.0 no QB drafted- 3rd round T Robert Hicks, 3 years and out. 7th round G Victor Allotey

1997: 60.8-no QB drafted- 4th round OG Jamie Nails, 4 years Bills & 6th round T Marcus Spriggs, 4 years Bills

1996: 72.6-no QB drafted- C 2nd, 6th round pick, 4 years with Bills

1995: 79.9-no QB drafted- OG Ruben brown 1st round pick #14 played 12 years- 7th round OG Tom Nutten played one year Bills, 7 years St Louis

1994: 81.2- no QB drafted- Corey Louchiey OT 3rd round. 3 years and out

 

A couple of observations:

 

1) The new Mendoza line in qb play is 80.0. It used to be 73-75 until about 2004-05 or so (when the rules changed).

 

2) There is no way to sugarcoat it or explain it away: with a couple of exceptions, the Bills Qb performance over the last two decades has been epically bad. The team has occasionally had good defenses, good running games, and good special teams play. But it's all meaningless if you're running out QBs completely incapable of generating a moderately decent 85.0 rating.

 

3) Manuel is a rookie, so I'm withholding judgment. That said, if he doesn't achieve an 85 rating or better next season, I suspect I'll consign him to the ever growing ash heap of bad Bills quarterbacks.

 

4) To give you a sense of how bad 75.0 is, opposing QBs collectively managed to achieve a 74.9 rating against the Bills D. The thing is, the Bills were third in the NFL, with only Cincy (74.2) and Seattle (63.4) doing better. The Bills pass D was phenomenal this year, which is even more impressive given that in the previous couple of seasons they were allowing collective passer ratings in the low 90s (which is dismal). Pettine deserves a ton of credit for that.

 

5) A year or two ago, there was a great analysis (maybe on si.com or espn.com; I can't recall) that conclusively demonstrated that qb rating differential (that is, the difference between your qbs' collective rating and the opposing qbs' collective rating) was the single greatest predictor of success and failure in the NFL. It covered decades of results. In other words, the clowns the Bills have rolled out at qb year after year after year just don't give the team a chance.

 

EDIT: I found the article. Enjoy: http://sportsillustr...g.differential/

The biggest reason the Bills QB situation has sucked the last 20 years is because they haven't drafted many, but 3! EJ is the very first QB ever taken with the 1st, first round pick in the entire history of the 53 year franchise.

 

Then, another big reason for so much failure even with free agent QB's is that O line hasn't been a top unit since the Will Wolford days. Aside of the catastrophic failure to draft a franchise QB. Only 3 drafted out of 172 draft picks since 1994. Then only 27 O linemen drafted. Of those 27 only 5 have been drafted in the first two rounds the last 20 years. That's freaking sad!

 

Take your pick drafting, RB's, DB's, D linemen LBers, WR's haven't built a SB team, and mostly haven't even built a winning season. Run that thru the analytic dept.

[Sisyphean Bills]

FWIW Eli was NOT good early on, and also had time behind Warner. There was a lot of time where people thought he was going to flame out. They stuck with him and he developed as they acquired more weapons and he acquired more experience. He could potentially be a fine comparison for EJ.

No argument. But, the point was to the credibility of this list. None of the QBs from arguably the strongest QB class in the last 20 years are on the list.

 

FWIW, Manning's QB rating was bad, but he didn't make the threshold as far as attempts either.

 

Roethlisberger had a rating of 98.1 but fell 5 pass attempts short.

[RuntheDamnBall]

No argument. But, the point was to the credibility of this list. None of the QBs from arguably the strongest QB class in the last 20 years are on the list.

 

FWIW, Manning's QB rating was bad, but he didn't make the threshold as far as attempts either.

 

Roethlisberger had a rating of 98.1 but fell 5 pass attempts short.

True, all of it.

 

Roethlisberger, as I recall, had a pretty limited playbook, limited attempts and a real Pittsburgh power run game to rely upon. It's almost as if they knew what to do with a rookie QB and what to surround him with.

[Sisyphean Bills]

True, all of it.

 

Roethlisberger, as I recall, had a pretty limited playbook, limited attempts and a real Pittsburgh power run game to rely upon. It's almost as if they knew what to do with a rookie QB and what to surround him with.

 

I was confused about why Palmer appeared in the list with 2004 next to his name. He did not play his entire rookie season (I looked it up to confirm). So, again, this list includes "rookies" that were not really rookies.

Edited January 4, 2014 by Sisyphean Bills

[BADOLBILZ]

It looks like he is using the list of "rookie" QBs (the list included Doug Flutie's 1998 season, and he was not a rookie), who threw 300+ passes. Here is SJBF's link.

 

http://www.sportingc...t-20-years.aspx

 

 

 

Well, there is a big difference between quarterback rating differential and a list of quarterback ratings over 20 years including qualifiers. QB rating differential is the difference between opposing teams in the same season. The latter begs the question of what the qualifiers are for, how large do you weigh rule changes and other changes in the game itself, and whether there is an agenda for the list maker.

 

How can one look at a list with Rick Mirer, Tim Couch, and Brandon Weeden as 3 of the "best" QBs without a hint of skepticism? How is it Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning are not on the list? Andrew Luck carried his team as a rookie, as evidenced by his average passing yards per game, but looks average on this list. Then there is the inclusion of the well-worn veteran Doug Flutie.

 

Here is a list of QB ratings for 2013.

 

http://www.pro-footb...013/passing.htm

 

EJ Manuel is 29th on this list putting him between Christian Ponder and Jason Campbell.

 

To me, it really is as simple as the fact that since 2010:

 

A) QB's are safer from big hits

 

B) Receivers are safer brom big hits

 

There isn't a stat that I have seen to quantify the fear that has been taken out of the game since early in the 2010 season.

 

But the split second gained by not fearing a helmet to the chin or in the back has made it easier to make plays in the passing game.

 

To me, it's blatantly obvious.

 

And teams aren't afraid to give a raw rookie QB snaps anymore because it's nowhere near the risk it once was.

 

To take it even a step further, the NCAA is just now starting to adapt these protective policies.

 

So a lot of these rookie QB's were taking punishing hits at the college level and in the NFL they are throwing from a safer pocket.

 

IMO, comparing rookie QB's pre-2010 to those of today is just not a good way to evaluate where they stand.

 

As you pointed out......EJ on the whole was just awful this year.

 

That's not to say other young QB's haven't been but all that a passer rating in the 70's tells me is that statistically he could go either way.

 

The eye test.....watching him make inaccurate throws, missing reads, refusing to climb the pocket, the injuries.......these counter much, if not all of the statistical encouragement of not looking worse than a Geno Smith, for example.

 

Still, even that number is so low and so poor relative to the rest of the QB's in the NFL that it can't be seen as encouraging.

Edited January 4, 2014 by BADOLBEELZ

[BackInDaDay]

The biggest reason the Bills QB situation has sucked the last 20 years is because they haven't drafted many, but 3! EJ is the very first QB ever taken with the 1st, first round pick in the entire history of the 53 year franchise.

 

Then, another big reason for so much failure even with free agent QB's is that O line hasn't been a top unit since the Will Wolford days. Aside of the catastrophic failure to draft a franchise QB. Only 3 drafted out of 172 draft picks since 1994. Then only 27 O linemen drafted. Of those 27 only 5 have been drafted in the first two rounds the last 20 years. That's freaking sad!

 

Take your pick drafting, RB's, DB's, D linemen LBers, WR's haven't built a SB team, and mostly haven't even built a winning season. Run that thru the analytic dept.

 

great job..

now, let's get some agile / mobile / hostile guards to pop our RBs free and move with our QB. if Manuel has the O line - and our OC tightens up our receiving corp - then there'll be no excuses for failure. here's to a good Whaley led draft.

[Mr. WEO]

Jeepers, you cite my mention of passer rating differential but somehow omit this part of my post regarding passer rating which was the main thrust of my post:

 

And again, passer rating while not infallible, is one stat that people can't be dismissive of:

 

http://en.wikipedia....i/Passer_rating

 

In 2011, CNNSI published an article by Kerry Byrne of Cold Hard Football Facts highlighting the importance of passer rating in determining a team's success.^[6] "Put most simply," the article states, "you cannot be a smart football analyst and dismiss passer rating. In fact, it's impossible to look at the incredible correlation of victory to passer rating and then dismiss it. You might as well dismiss the score of a game when determining a winner. [...] Few, if any, are more indicative of wins and losses than passer rating. Teams that posted a higher passer rating went 203-53 (.793) in 2010and an incredible 151-29 (.839) after Week 5."

 

Can I assume that you agree that passer rating is a pretty good metric?

 

 

 

 

Repeating myself from upthread, you can quibble and try to discredit the Top Rookie QB list or you can take it for what it's worth. There's enough data there that any way you cut it up, EJ was not "awful" as a rookie. As plainly stated several times, that is my point.

 

Now if you disagree, just say so.

 

Also repeating myself from upthread, the inclusion of any veteran QBs on that list (you mention Flutie and Carson Palmer) only makes the EJ's inclusion more impressive.

 

Without those 2, EJ would have had the 8th best rookie season in the last 22 years.

 

:lol:

 

Would you agree that almost without exception, veteran QBs play better than rookie QBs?

 

Finally you cite EJ being 29th in passer rating last year as evidence that he wasn't good but you don't address my point that he needs to be compared to other rookie QBs.

 

Rookie 1st Round QBs since 2006:

 

Robert Griffin III: 102.4 (an NFL record)

Matt Ryan 87.7

Cam Newton: 84.5

Tim Tebow 82.1

Joe Flacco 80.3

EJ Manuel 77.7

Andrew Luck 76.5

Sam Bradford 76.5

Ryan Tannehill 76.1

Jake Locker 74.0

Matt Leinart 74.0

Brandon Weeden 72.6

Christian Ponder 70.1

Vince Young 66.7

Blaine Gabbert 65.4

Mark Sanchez 63.0

Matthew Stafford 61.0

Josh Freeman 59.8

Brady Quinn 56.8

Jamarcus Russell 55.9

 

The debate boils down to this:

 

There are numerous posters here who repeatedly claim that EJ Manuel sucked last year.

 

In an attempt to frame things fairly, I've been making the point that when you compare EJ to other rookie QBs, he's a better than average rookie QB.

 

Just so we're clear on your position, would you agree with my point?

 

So, given he had a better rating, you have concluded that EJ had a better rookie season than Luck...

[MDH]

 

You're late to the discussion.

 

I've already said that stats are not the be-all, end-all.

 

Passer rating is not an exact science but it an accurate metric.

 

My conclusion (for about the 5th time) is that EJ had a good rookie season.

 

What is your opinion?

 

I've been a defender of EJ against the harsh critics but I'm not sure id term his season "good" even for a rookie. Granted, I wouldn't call it bad either...it was okay.

 

You've made a point of saying passer rating differential is one of the key metrics in today's game but forget to mention that passer rating can be dramatically impacted by turnovers. Turnovers are THE key statistic.

 

As such a passer rating of a more aggressive rookie - like say Luck - is going to be negatively impacted by turnovers. Conversely a guy like EJ, who played it very safe, is going to be protected. So Luck's ypa will be higher but his numbers will be dragged down because of his mistakes. The difference is that the aggressive QB is getting more if a trial by fire and once (if) the game starts slowing down for him his numbers are going to jump. We saw this with luck this year. His his INTs dropped and his passer rating jumped a full 10 points even though his ypa dropped a bit.

 

I think EJ has a lot of tools and I hope that a full training camp and an uninterrupted season next year give him the confidence to just let it loose without playing it so safe. The one thing that is really encouraging about EJ is that when the game is on the line and he's not thinking so much we see his best football. That's the EJ I want to see all the time.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I've been a defender of EJ against the harsh critics but I'm not sure id term his season "good" even for a rookie. Granted, I wouldn't call it bad either...it was okay.

 

You've made a point of saying passer rating differential is one of the key metrics in today's game but forget to mention that passer rating can be dramatically impacted by turnovers. Turnovers are THE key statistic.

 

As such a passer rating of a more aggressive rookie - like say Luck - is going to be negatively impacted by turnovers. Conversely a guy like EJ, who played it very safe, is going to be protected. So Luck's ypa will be higher but his numbers will be dragged down because of his mistakes. The difference is that the aggressive QB is getting more if a trial by fire and once (if) the game starts slowing down for him his numbers are going to jump. We saw this with luck this year. His his INTs dropped and his passer rating jumped a full 10 points even though his ypa dropped a bit.

 

I think EJ has a lot of tools and I hope that a full training camp and an uninterrupted season next year give him the confidence to just let it loose without playing it so safe. The one thing that is really encouraging about EJ is that when the game is on the line and he's not thinking so much we see his best football. That's the EJ I want to see all the time.

 

Yes.

 

Passer rating is not an exact science but it is an accurate metric.

 

Both in the short term and historically, EJs passer rating is very good for a rookie.

[Mr. WEO]

You're late to the discussion.

 

I've already said that stats are not the be-all, end-all.

 

Passer rating is not an exact science but it an accurate metric.

 

My conclusion (for about the 5th time) is that EJ had a good rookie season.

 

What is your opinion?

 

I'm not one of the ones who have given up completely on him. But there is nothing comparable between the way those 2 QBs played their rookie years.

 

If you look at some of the postdraft assessments of EJ posted here (from other sources), they described EJ as a guy who at FSU, struggled with the speed of the game, had clumsy footwork, held on to the ball too long and struggled to throw to a point or a pattern. After this season, I would describe him as the same player he was depicted as in college. No real progression.

 

He just doesn't regularly throw with authority, nor does he seem to know where everyone is. That and his significant injury history already and it's hard to be encouraged.

 

Bottom line, I didn't notice a drop off when Thad was in there. Doesn't that say it all?

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Bottom line, I didn't notice a drop off when Thad was in there. Doesn't that say it all?

 

So there was no drop off between a rookie QB and a 4 year veteran who was a 4-year starter in college and who had 1 career start before this season began?

 

I'd say that means EJ played pretty well.

[Mr. WEO]

So there was no drop off between a rookie QB and a 4 year veteran who was a 4-year starter in college and who had 1 career start before this season began?

 

I'd say that means EJ played pretty well.

 

If that and staring at his and Luck's rating are all you need to conclude he played well, then I won't wake you from your dream.

 

Come on SJBF! Thad is a journeyman career benchwarmer on his 4th team in 4 years and he comes in for our big stud 1st round pick and the Bills don't miss a beat--they both lost 60% of their starts. That means EJ played pretty well?

[San Jose Bills Fan]

If that and staring at his and Luck's rating are all you need to conclude he played well, then I won't wake you from your dream.

 

Come on SJBF! Thad is a journeyman career benchwarmer on his 4th team in 4 years and he comes in for our big stud 1st round pick and the Bills don't miss a beat--they both lost 60% of their starts. That means EJ played pretty well?

 

My eyes tell me EJ had a good rookie season.

 

His passer rating backs up what my eyes tell me.

 

Thad is in his 4th season. That counts for something. He's not in the league because he was a high draft pick. He's earned his place in the NFL unlike many highly drafted QBs, some of whom have already flamed out of the league.

 

And for those who say EJ was awful as a rookie, why doesn't anyone take a poke at these comparables?

 

Robert Griffin III: 102.4 (an NFL record)

Matt Ryan 87.7

Cam Newton: 84.5

Tim Tebow 82.1

Joe Flacco 80.3

EJ Manuel 77.7

Andrew Luck 76.5

Sam Bradford 76.5

Ryan Tannehill 76.1

Jake Locker 74.0

Matt Leinart 74.0

Brandon Weeden 72.6

Christian Ponder 70.1

Vince Young 66.7

Blaine Gabbert 65.4

Mark Sanchez 63.0

Matthew Stafford 61.0

Josh Freeman 59.8

Brady Quinn 56.8

Jamarcus Russell 55.9

 

The people who are dreaming are the ones who think that EJ was awful for a rookie.

 

Let's pretend Andrew Luck doesn't exist.

 

How does EJ stack up to the others?

[Mr. WEO]

Again, Lewis was undrafted and was released by 3 teams in 3 years. He has no relevant experience in any NFL team system. Yet he walks in and there's no significant dropoff. How is this evidence of a good year by EJ??

 

And when I pointed out that there was no similarity between Luck and EJ except that rating number, you said it wasn't the be all metric, yet you keep going back to it

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Again, Lewis was undrafted and was released by 3 teams in 3 years. He has no relevant experience in any NFL team system. Yet he walks in and there's no significant dropoff. How is this evidence of a good year by EJ??

 

And when I pointed out that there was no similarity between Luck and EJ except that rating number, you said it wasn't the be all metric, yet you keep going back to it

 

To your first paragraph, it's indisputable that NFL quarterbacks with experience substantially outplay rookie QBs. Yet you said yourself that you saw no significant dropoff.

 

As for your second paragraph, like I already said, forget about Andrew Luck if you think he's a statistical anomaly.

 

How does EJ compare to all the other rookie first rounders? He compares well.

[Mr. WEO]

To your first paragraph, it's indisputable that NFL quarterbacks with experience substantially outplay rookie QBs. Yet you said yourself that you saw no significant dropoff.

 

As for your second paragraph, like I already said, forget about Andrew Luck if you think he's a statistical anomaly.

 

How does EJ compare to all the other rookie first rounders? He compares well.

 

So, it's a indisputable that Curtis Painter would have outplayed Luck, Jackson outplayed Wilson, Maddox outplayed Big Ben, Grossman outplayed RG3, Woodley outplayed Marino.....

Edited January 4, 2014 by Mr. WEO

[dave mcbride]

I'm certainly willing to wait and see with regard to EJ.

 

As for Luck, I don't know what his rating was tonight, but in my book it was 120. His footwork and accuracy are freaking incredible. The last INT he threw was not his fault either.

Edited January 5, 2014 by dave mcbride