We have plenty to look forward too

[Thunderstealer]

Next season EJ will get the routes better. He'll learn the offense at his pace- accuracy will improve and we'll compete for the division title next year.

[FLFan]

Last night, during Sunday Night Football, I listened to Chris Collinsworth go on and on, ad nauseum, about what a genius Chip Kelly is and how prolific the Eagles offense is. Then, I thought about all of the posters on this board who are calling for Hackett's head. So, I thought I would take a general look at the two and their circumstances this year:

 

1) Kelly inherited an offensive team that finished 5th or better in 3 of the last four years. Hackett inherited a team that finished 15th or worse in 3 of the last four years.

2) Kelly's quarterbacks this year were Michael Vick (no matter what you think of him - he can still make plays) and Nick Foles - who is a third year player that started 7 games prior to this season. Hackett's quarterbacks were Manuel, Tuel, and Lewis - with a grand total of one start between them prior to this year.

3) In regard to defenses, Yards per Play (Yds/P) tends to be a pretty good guage of those defenses that are tough to move the ball against consistently. In regard to the Eagles, the Yds/P ranking of their opponents (from lowest to highest) were 4, 8, 8, 17, 18, 20, 23, 25, 26, 27, 28, 28, 30, 31, 32. The defensive Yds/P ranking of the Bills opponents were 3, 5, 7, 9, 9, 10, 11, 11, 12, 14, 16, 16, 17, 20, 22, 29.

4) 6 of the Eagles 15 opponents were top 20 or better (with only 3 in the top 15) while 13 of the Bills 15 opponents were top 20 or better (with 10 in the top 15). Looking at just the top ten defenses, the Eagles faced 3 and the Bills faced 6. Against teams with a top 10 Yds/P ranking, the Eagles averaged 297 ypg and 25 ppg, while the Bills averaged 349 ypg and 25.3 ppg against defenses with a top 10 Yds/P ranking.

 

I am not saying Hackett is better, the same, or worse than Kelly. Kelly may be the second coming of Don Coryell and Hackett may be out of the NFL in two years - or vice versa. My point? Actually, I have several:

 

1) Determining the success or failure of a coach requires more than a superficial look at their product.

2) There isn't anyone on this board that can say either coach would have been better or worse than the other if they switched circumstances

3) 15 games as a coach in the NFL is merely a snapshot. I need a greater body of work before I am willing to label someone a genius...or a failure

Thank you for the excellent rational analyis. Often lacking around here. In all of that, the biggest difference is the QB. Despite having a seasoned veteran in Vick to start the season, the offense did not really start to click until Foles came in and began to light it up. People need to remember that as you point out Foles is a veteran, with some starting experience. His starts prior to this year have been mediocre to promising, but his experience is the big difference to Buffalo's situation. We have not seen near what this offense is capable of. Had Manuel been able to stay on the field I firmly believe the Bills offense would be much better than what we are seeing so far, and it has been very decent at times. Patience is what is required here, not a new OC or QB.

[Gray Beard]

Next season EJ will get the routes better. He'll learn the offense at his pace- accuracy will improve and we'll compete for the division title next year.

One observation with EJ is that he throws behind his receivers. As if he doesn't realize how fast they are going. Especially with the crossing routes. I think with a little more experience he can improve on that, and it will make a big difference.

[billsfan1959]

Thank you for the excellent rational analyis. Often lacking around here. In all of that, the biggest difference is the QB. Despite having a seasoned veteran in Vick to start the season, the offense did not really start to click until Foles came in and began to light it up. People need to remember that as you point out Foles is a veteran, with some starting experience. His starts prior to this year have been mediocre to promising, but his experience is the big difference to Buffalo's situation. We have not seen near what this offense is capable of. Had Manuel been able to stay on the field I firmly believe the Bills offense would be much better than what we are seeing so far, and it has been very decent at times. Patience is what is required here, not a new OC or QB.

 

Well said

[chris heff]

Usually when we fix a problem... we cause a problem for ourselves somewhere else.

 

So lets say we magically get better QB play next year...

 

We all know something else will fall apart.

Things will fall apart if the Bills listen to some people on this board.

 

Here is my wish list, through the draft or free agency, I think this is what they need.

 

On offence, left guard, right tackle, tight end and a big wide receiver. This is a lot. I'd be happy with the first two. It is amazing how much better QBs look with a good running game and good protection.

 

On defense, a line backer, a defensive tackle (run defense needs to be better), and sign Byrd. The last one probably won't happen, but this is where the Bills could create a hole were there shouldn't be one.

 

I thnk at this point the Bills are better than both the Jets and Dolphins. Even if they lose to the Patriots they end up 3-3 in the division. When was the last time that happened? It's a start.

 

Did anyone else watch Patriots, Ravens yesterday? The Ravens and for that matter the Giants are examples of what happens when you don't give good QBs a supporting cast. Very few QBs can over come not having talent around them. Brady happens to be one, but you could make the argument that he is the best to ever play the game.

 

The Bills need to do everything they can to make EJ Manual successful before they start using high draft picks on another QB. Doing so would insure "something else will fall apart".

 

 

[Jkgobills]

Last night, during Sunday Night Football, I listened to Chris Collinsworth go on and on, ad nauseum, about what a genius Chip Kelly is and how prolific the Eagles offense is. Then, I thought about all of the posters on this board who are calling for Hackett's head. So, I thought I would take a general look at the two and their circumstances this year:

 

1) Kelly inherited an offensive team that finished 5th or better in 3 of the last four years. Hackett inherited a team that finished 15th or worse in 3 of the last four years.

2) Kelly's quarterbacks this year were Michael Vick (no matter what you think of him - he can still make plays) and Nick Foles - who is a third year player that started 7 games prior to this season. Hackett's quarterbacks were Manuel, Tuel, and Lewis - with a grand total of one start between them prior to this year.

3) In regard to defenses, Yards per Play (Yds/P) tends to be a pretty good guage of those defenses that are tough to move the ball against consistently. In regard to the Eagles, the Yds/P ranking of their opponents (from lowest to highest) were 4, 8, 8, 17, 18, 20, 23, 25, 26, 27, 28, 28, 30, 31, 32. The defensive Yds/P ranking of the Bills opponents were 3, 5, 7, 9, 9, 10, 11, 11, 12, 14, 16, 16, 17, 20, 22, 29.

4) 6 of the Eagles 15 opponents were top 20 or better (with only 3 in the top 15) while 13 of the Bills 15 opponents were top 20 or better (with 10 in the top 15). Looking at just the top ten defenses, the Eagles faced 3 and the Bills faced 6. Against teams with a top 10 Yds/P ranking, the Eagles averaged 297 ypg and 25 ppg, while the Bills averaged 349 ypg and 25.3 ppg against defenses with a top 10 Yds/P ranking.

 

I am not saying Hackett is better, the same, or worse than Kelly. Kelly may be the second coming of Don Coryell and Hackett may be out of the NFL in two years - or vice versa. My point? Actually, I have several:

 

1) Determining the success or failure of a coach requires more than a superficial look at their product.

2) There isn't anyone on this board that can say either coach would have been better or worse than the other if they switched circumstances

3) 15 games as a coach in the NFL is merely a snapshot. I need a greater body of work before I am willing to label someone a genius...or a failure

 

First, Thanks to the OP. This topic has generated some excellent thought and analysis.

 

Second, thanks to the quoted poster. I married into an Eagles family, and now I have some "analytics" at my disposal come Christmas Day.

 

Third, It looks like our coaching staff has done a good job when we look at the measurable factors. There is plenty to acknowledge as going well. There is also room to be driven crazy as fans at times by game planning and play calling on offense. However, we are in better hands in regards to coaching than we were a year ago.

 

For the first offseason in many years there seems to be a genuine reason for excitement in Bills Land.

The front office has made lots of good decisions in the past 18 months:

1. Mario Williams

2. Trading Kelvin Sheppard for Jerry Hughes

3. Signing Manny Lawson

4. Re signing Leodis

5. Bringing back J Leohnard

6. A Branch

7. Signing Robey

8. Drafting Alonso

9. Drafting Woods

10. Bringing in Thad Lewis from Detroit practice squad

11. Drafting Cordy Glenn

12. Landing Pettine as our DC

A few Dumb moves:

1. Letting Levitre and Reinhold leave WITHOUT a plan to replace them suitably

2. Not signing Byrd to a longer deal when Levitre was allowed to walk. Needed one or the other, we can't fill both holes at once this upcoming off season.

 

The Question:

1. Is EJ the answer? If he is, we look a lot like the 1987 Buffalo Bills (credit goes to another poster for that analogy). If he is not, we are still "rebuilding".

 

However, it seems that we may have the right coaching and front office in place that they can actually be trusted to make the right decision regarding the QB. If they think he can be the guy, then I already can't wait for next year. If they don't think he is, then take another shot at a QB early in the draft.

 

Watching this defense play with a two score lead yesterday was fun. They are among league leaders in sacks, despite playing without leads and the other team in "obvious" passing situations for large parts if games. Watching the defense dismantle the Dolphins yesterday gives me great hope for next year!

 

[Boatdrinks]

Don't you think that Marrone wants this style of offense since he and Hackett developed it? Hackett is not getting fired, our problem is QB play. when that improves Hackett will "suddenly" become smarter.

It's not as simple as all that. Hackett has been overly conservative, (constant run plays on 1st down) especially with EJM. That may be to cut the risk of turnovers. It also leaves you in a lot of 2nd or 3rd and longs. Tough for an O line vs blitzes. The routes on his passing plays make little sense at times. Not a lot of clever design such as a NE/ DEN offense where picks/rubs are used almost constantly to get a wide open receiver for Brady/ Manning to throw to. They occasionally get an Off. PI call against them, but not enough that they stop doing it. Their braintrust has obviously decided it is worth the risk. Ever wonder why TB ALWAYS has a wide open guy to throw to on 3rd down, usually a 4 or 5 yard pass that moves the chains? Yes, the Bills could use a D Thomas or Decker, but Hackett's design should not be given a free pass here. It would make things a lot easier for a young QB if WR's were a bit more open. Those teams especially use those plays on 3rd downs and manufacture drives with them. Watching Hackett's pass routes usually makes one wonder what they are trying to do. He has a lot to learn at the NFL level. The Bills need more than just better QB play. Pettine's scheme on D shows what a well designed plan can do. Hackett's O looks rudimentary compared to top offenses in the league. It doesn't matter if WR's eventually break free ( "but they were open on the all 22 ..seven seconds after the snap") timing and route design ARE important.

[thewildrabbit]

I'm not sure what games you're watching but this is absolutely incorrect. The Bills are last in the league in passing percentage on 1st down at 49.47%. They lead the league in runs per game at 34.1 and they're 24th in passing att per game with 32.9. Their passing play percentage is 30th in the league at 51.24%.

 

Hackett has called a run first offense for most of the games this year and the season's statistics bear this out.

 

I have no idea how someone could watch the games and come away with the idea that Hackett uses the pass to set up the run.

Hackett does try to establish the run first at times, and oft times it doesn't work out. Usually it takes the QB to start completing passes to get the run game going. Teams were gearing up to stop the Bills run game and make the rookie QB beat them, and that strategy worked way to often.

 

While I realize that The Bills have lead the NFL in rushing attempts almost all season. That doesn't always mean they are successful running it. When the run game doesn't work for various reasons, then Hackett goes pass happy with a rookie QB.

 

NE 34 rushes, 27 passes L .This game could have been won had the Bills upgraded the O line properly and been able to keep the ball away from Brady in the 4th quarter.

 

Carolina 33 rushes, 39 passes W .

 

@Jets 25 rushes, 42 passes L . huge disparity here as the Jets took an early lead and Hackett went pass happy. Disaster!

 

Ravens 55 rushes, 22 passes W .This was how to do it, as the Bills ran it down the Ravens throats.

 

@Cleveland 31 rushes, 40 passes.L.Bills were doing well until EJ got injured late in the 3rd quarter. Once the Bills were behind in the score its pass happy again with Mr deer in headlights throwing it.

 

Cincinnati 32 rushes, 32 passes. L. Thad Lewis at QB, lost close game in OT

 

@Miami 30 rushes, 32 passes. W. close game 23-21

 

@ New Orleans, 25 rushes, 39 passes. L . The Bills get behind in the score and the game plan to run goes out the window. disaster!

 

Chiefs 38 rushes, 39 passes. This was the game I lost faith in Hackett as Tuel was the QB. The Bills were dominating the Chiefs by running it, Bills 241 rushing yards went for naught because Tuel was allowed to pass on 3rd and one.

 

@ Pittsburgh 22 rushes, 39 passes. L. The Bills get behind and the game plan to run goes out the window. Disaster!

 

Jets 38 rushes, 28 passes W. What is crazy here is that the Bills rushed 38 times for only 68 yards. Spiller went 13 attempts for 6 yards. The Jets were so intent on stopping the run, and succeeded. But while stopping the run so well that EJ tore them a new one 20-28 for 245 2 TD's. The Bills defense did to the Jets QB almost exactly what they did to EJ in the first game.

 

Atlanta 31 rushes, 32 passes. L. in OT because of two Bills fumbles late in the game. Because the Bills D couldn't stop the Falcons O, and couldn't run it to play keep away.

 

@ Tampa Bay 22 rushes, 32 passes. L. The Bills got behind early and again the game plan to run goes out the window. Disaster

 

@ Jacksonville 44 rushes, 24 passes. W. This is what the Bills should have been doing all season. First win on the road for EJ.

 

Miami 51 rushes, 25 passes. W. Again, this is what the Bills should have been doing all season.

 

Because of the last two games the Bills have actually rushed more then they passed this season.

 

My problem with this Bills OC is that he kept calling for mostly same shotgun no huddle run plays, and if teams stopped the run game he had no alternative answer then to go pass happy just like Chan Gailey, Turk Schonert. The difference is Hacket was dealing with some very raw rookie QB's.

 

Then Inexplicably the Bills O line pass blocked so much better for home games. Just think if this team had gotten a decent replacement for that LG position, and were able to run the ball successfully against every team. This season could have been so different, as the Dolphins just got blown out by the Bills in week 15, and are still in the playoff hunt at 8-7.