Bills pass defense - progress this season

[dave mcbride]

Team QB rating (both for and against and especially the divide between the two) has been proven to be a remarkably good predictor of success in the NFL. This season, through 11 games, opposing offenses have collectively put together an 81.2 passer rating. That's better than last season, but not by much. The Bills allowed an 82.7 passer rating in 2012. But there are other numbers suggesting significant improvement. More progress needs to be made, however.

 

2013 - 81.2 passer rating and 5.8 ypa (adjusted to account for sack yardage). Numerically, the Bills pass D is first in the league in both INTs (16) and sacks (37). Of course, the Bills have played one more game than 28 other teams, so take that #1 ranking with a grain of salt. Still, it's impressive. I'm also of the belief that sacks are far more important than merely adding negative yardage to passing numbers. They're effectively turnover creators. It's rare for an offense to overcome a series in which the QB is sacked, and hence the offense is forced to give up the ball via punt as a consequence.

 

2012 - 82.7 rating and 6.1 ypa (adusted); 36 sacks and 12 INTs.

 

2011 - 86.5 rating and a 6.9 ypa (adjusted) 28 sacks and 20 INTs.

 

2010 - 91.0 rating and 6.1 ypa (adjusted); 27 sacks and 11 INTs.

 

The Bills are on pace for 23 INTs and 54 sacks. Those are very strong numbers. They have to cut down on the TD throws (22 so far; on pace to give up 32). They haven't allowed a TD pass in two of their last 3 games, and only 2 in their last 3 games. The addition of Byrd and an increasingly healthy Gilmore should help on that front.

 

The bottom line: this is a pretty good pass D that can get better now that a couple of their core DBs are now healthy. I think that as long as they retain Byrd, they're more or less set on D for next year. They need help on offense (guard, TE, a big WR, and another QB in round 3 or so who is better than Thad Lewis), and that's where they should focus their energies come draft time.

 

As for the whole picture, the Bills' offense has a 73.8 qb rating, and the negative split (-7.4 points) matches up pretty nicely with Bills record (4-7). Tuel really brings it down. Since he played terribly in the two games he played in, that makes sense.

Edited November 18, 2013 by dave mcbride

[BringBackFergy]

Great analysis Dave. Thanks for the information. I get down on our pass defense when we give up the third and long time and again but this type of post reminds me that we can't expect perfection in this team. They are playing solid defense and the DLine (and safety/DB blitzing) is where it all starts. Rush the passer and good things happen.

[dave mcbride]

Great analysis Dave. Thanks for the information. I get down on our pass defense when we give up the third and long time and again but this type of post reminds me that we can't expect perfection in this team. They are playing solid defense and the DLine (and safety/DB blitzing) is where it all starts. Rush the passer and good things happen.

 

Thanks. A defense is always going to give up passing plays in the NFL because the league is currently set up to favor passing offenses. You're right - one can't expect perfection.

[wnysteel]

they seem to have cut down on the atrocious 3rd and long conversions they allowed earlier in the year. that is progress in my book.

[Big Turk]

Team QB rating (both for and against and especially the divide between the two) has been proven to be a remarkably good predictor of success in the NFL. This season, through 11 games, opposing offenses have collectively put together an 81.2 passer rating. That's better than last season, but not by much. The Bills allowed an 82.7 passer rating in 2012. But there are other numbers suggesting significant improvement. More progress needs to be made, however.

 

2013 - 81.2 passer rating and 5.8 ypa (adjusted to account for sack yardage). Numerically, the Bills pass D is first in the league in both INTs (16) and sacks (37). Of course, the Bills have played one more game than 28 other teams, so take that #1 ranking with a grain of salt. Still, it's impressive. I'm also of the belief that sacks are far more important than merely adding negative yardage to passing numbers. They're effectively turnover creators. It's rare for an offense to overcome a series in which the QB is sacked, and hence the offense is forced to give up the ball via punt as a consequence.

 

2012 - 82.7 rating and 6.1 ypa (adusted); 36 sacks and 12 INTs.

 

2011 - 86.5 rating and a 6.9 ypa (adjusted) 28 sacks and 20 INTs.

 

2010 - 91.0 rating and 6.1 ypa (adjusted); 27 sacks and 11 INTs.

 

The Bills are on pace for 23 INTs and 54 sacks. Those are very strong numbers. They have to cut down on the TD throws (22 so far; on pace to give up 32). They haven't allowed a TD pass in two of their last 3 games, and only 2 in their last 3 games. The addition of Byrd and an increasingly healthy Gilmore should help on that front.

 

The bottom line: this is a pretty good pass D that can get better now that a couple of their core DBs are now healthy. I think that as long as they retain Byrd, they're more or less set on D for next year. They need help on offense (guard, TE, a big WR, and another QB in round 3 or so who is better than Thad Lewis), and that's where they should focus their energies come draft time.

 

As for the whole picture, the Bills' offense has a 73.8 qb rating, and the negative split (-7.4 points) matches up pretty nicely with Bills record (4-7). Tuel really brings it down. Since he played terribly in the two games he played in, that makes sense.

 

I was at the Chiefs game and I can tell you nobody around me thought Tuel played terribly. In fact, he made quite a few good throws including at least five that were dropped and helped roll up almost 500 yards against the best D in football.

 

Yeah that one goalline pick 6 was bad, but essentially the interceptor was rewarded for getting smoked badly and being completely out of position relative to his man...

 

they seem to have cut down on the atrocious 3rd and long conversions they allowed earlier in the year. that is progress in my book.

 

It has a lot to do with their good players returning...teams can't just throw the ball to whoever Justin Rogers is covering and pretty much guarantee a first down

[outsidethebox]

awesome post Dave. I think this defense will only keep getting better. Our secondary is one of the best in the NFL. I really like our depth back there. I have high expectations for them next year, as long as Byrd is resigned.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Assuming they keep Byrd, I'd argue that they still need an OLB and maybe another cornerback, but overall defense looks pretty good. Not sure you're really going to get a QB in round #3 better than the current backups you have, with adding a years experience to their resume. Assuming you pick up a guard and Legursky goes oto the bench, that's decent depth there but could still use some outsdie depth on the Oline i.e. backup tackle. Maybe could fill one of these starting spots and O'line depth via free agency, then draft the other needs.

[dave mcbride]

I was at the Chiefs game and I can tell you nobody around me thought Tuel played terribly. In fact, he made quite a few good throws including at least five that were dropped and helped roll up almost 500 yards against the best D in football.

 

Yeah that one goalline pick 6 was bad, but essentially the interceptor was rewarded for getting smoked badly and being completely out of position relative to his man...

 

The numbers were pretty bad for Tuel in that game - a 46 percent completion rate, a 5.9 ypa average, a rating of 52.2, and a 3-1 turnover-to-TD ratio. By any measure, that's a poor game. Yes, there were some drops, but he also missed a number of open receivers.

 

Assuming they keep Byrd, I'd argue that they still need an OLB and maybe another cornerback, but overall defense looks pretty good. Not sure you're really going to get a QB in round #3 better than the current backups you have, with adding a years experience to their resume. Assuming you pick up a guard and Legursky goes oto the bench, that's decent depth there but could still use some outsdie depth on the Oline i.e. backup tackle. Maybe could fill one of these starting spots and O'line depth via free agency, then draft the other needs.

 

I don't know about the TEs coming out this year, but having a really good one will be a huge help to Manuel.

[Rubes]

Assuming they keep Byrd, I'd argue that they still need an OLB and maybe another cornerback, but overall defense looks pretty good. Not sure you're really going to get a QB in round #3 better than the current backups you have, with adding a years experience to their resume. Assuming you pick up a guard and Legursky goes oto the bench, that's decent depth there but could still use some outsdie depth on the Oline i.e. backup tackle. Maybe could fill one of these starting spots and O'line depth via free agency, then draft the other needs.

 

Yep, an impact LB to replace Moats is all this defense really needs, assuming we retain everybody. Another CB to account for injury would be nice. On offense, a G and TE and we should be good to go.

 

[wnysteel]

Yep, an impact LB to replace Moats is all this defense really needs, assuming we retain everybody. Another CB to account for injury would be nice. On offense, a G and TE and we should be good to go.

 

yep. LB is our biggest area of need. starter to replace Moats, and then some depth. i shudder to think what would happen if Kiko got injured.