Nix Nixing Nix - are we in full rebuilding mode?

[Orton's Arm]

The problem is the Bills have just enough talent to win 6 games. That's not bottom. The Bills need to cleave all current QBs and bring in 3 different ones. The draft. FA. I don't care. I would rather see someone else throw interceptions and actually bottom out.

 

The defense? If you are SF or Seattle, name 1 player on the Bills defense you would take over who you have. There may be one, but you have to think hard, don't you....

 

Yeah, the Bills need more of a hip replacement than a wart removal.

 

 

Yep...but the guy might not be there for us this year. But you have to try.

 

Good post!

[chris heff]

 

 

Ancient history. Blame the Babylonians.

 

I didn't bring up Polian and Butler, Independent did.

 

Totally disagree it wasn't salary cap hell that ruined this team but the overreaction to cap hell- unless you have a top 3 QB the model is 3 years of taking your shot followed by 3 years of rebulding

Ok throw out the salary cap. Butler traded for Rob Johnson, who had had one good game, then signed Flutie creating a QB controversy and he drafted Eric Flowers.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

John Butler's still ancient history.

 

The reason the Bills are not at least a respectable team right now lies at Buddy's feet.

 

He's entering his 4th year as GM.

[seq004]

I don't undetstand why he still has a job. The Bills are in no better shape than when he took the job 3 years ago.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I find it somewhat amazing that this offseason has seen the departure (and likely departure) - orchestrated by Nix - of much of the "nucleus" that Nix himself constructed.

Consider that the following players are gone, or likely to be gone: Fitzpatrick, Jones, Nelson, Levitre, Barnett, Meriman, Kelsay, Wilson.

Nearly all of those players were acquired and/or signed by Buddy Nix within the past few years. All of them were considered part of the "core" heading into the 2012 season.

 

Hmmmm. Nix was signed as "National Scout" on Jan. 26, 2009. Modrak was "le Grand Frommage" (VP of college scouting)

He was promoted to GM in December of 2009

From 2000-2008 Nix was busy finding pro-bowlers for the Chargers.

 

Levitre - drafted 2009. How much did Nix have to do with the 2009 draft board? He certainly wasn't the decision maker. I'm not sure he's Nix kind of guard, which may be one reason he's not getting paid.

Fitzpatrick - Feb 27, 2009. I don't think signing FA from other teams was part of the National Scout's duties. Again, Nix wasn't the decision maker.

Jones and Nelson - I grant you them. UDFA, 2010.

Barnett - yep, him too, but clearly brought in as a stop-gap as he was on the downhill side when he arrived

Merriman - this was a gamble by Nix that did not pay off. I don't know who regarded him as a core, though

Kelsay - 2003 draft. Signed to a multi-year deal in 2007. Nothing to do with Nix

Wilson - 2004 signee, switched to safety in 2007. Nothing to do with Nix.

 

So no, I don't think you can say Nix is shredding the "core" he tried to build. He didn't tender 2 UDFA, and he released an aging LB brought in as a stopgap and an injured "fallen star" who didn't pan out.

 

Now if Nix were cutting/trading Spiller, Troup, Carrington, Easley, Dareus, A. Williams, Sheppard, Searcy, Gilmore, Glenn, Graham, and Bradham, you'd have a point.

You also would have a valid point about the QB imbroglio, Fitz being another failed experiment in most people's view.

[Coach Tuesday]

 

 

Hmmmm. Nix was signed as "National Scout" on Jan. 26, 2009. Modrak was "le Grand Frommage" (VP of college scouting)

He was promoted to GM in December of 2009

From 2000-2008 Nix was busy finding pro-bowlers for the Chargers.

 

Levitre - drafted 2009. How much did Nix have to do with the 2009 draft board? He certainly wasn't the decision maker. I'm not sure he's Nix kind of guard, which may be one reason he's not getting paid.

Fitzpatrick - Feb 27, 2009. I don't think signing FA from other teams was part of the National Scout's duties. Again, Nix wasn't the decision maker.

Jones and Nelson - I grant you them. UDFA, 2010.

Barnett - yep, him too, but clearly brought in as a stop-gap as he was on the downhill side when he arrived

Merriman - this was a gamble by Nix that did not pay off. I don't know who regarded him as a core, though

Kelsay - 2003 draft. Signed to a multi-year deal in 2007. Nothing to do with Nix

Wilson - 2004 signee, switched to safety in 2007. Nothing to do with Nix.

 

So no, I don't think you can say Nix is shredding the "core" he tried to build. He didn't tender 2 UDFA, and he released an aging LB brought in as a stopgap and an injured "fallen star" who didn't pan out.

 

Now if Nix were cutting/trading Spiller, Troup, Carrington, Easley, Dareus, A. Williams, Sheppard, Searcy, Gilmore, Glenn, Graham, and Bradham, you'd have a point.

You also would have a valid point about the QB imbroglio, Fitz being another failed experiment in most people's view.

 

Your facts are incomplete and/or wrong.

 

Nix graded Levitre as one of his top 3 guards in the 2009 draft.

 

Nix re-upped Kelsay in 2010 and called him one of the "core" guys on the team:

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/19714/analyzing-the-chris-kelsay-extension

 

Nix signed Fitz to a large extension two years ago and said "he'll be our quarterback for a long time":

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7160727/ryan-fitzpatrick-buffalo-bills-agrees-new-contract

 

Nix signed Wilson to an extension two years ago:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=6171267

 

Next time, fact-check.

Edited March 7, 2013 by Coach Tuesday

[JPS]

 

 

Not really...I would wager that you both teams would take Mario Williams over either Ahmad Brooks or Red Bryant, Kyle Williams over Isaac Sopoaga or Alan Branch, and Jairus Byrd over Earl Thomas...the only real debate would be Byrd vs. Goldson.

 

Nevertheless, they do need more high-level talent on both sides of the ball...that much isn't up for debate.

my point still stands. I think opinions on your swaps would be mixed at best with most preferring the non-Bill. Certainly not slam dunks.

And that, after 4 years of heavy investment, is disgusting.

[gumby]

Why can't Nix get another kick at the can? Isn't Regier about to start his 4th rebuild?

 

That's just part of the charm of being a Buffalo sports fan.

[T master]

Merriman, McGee, Kelsay, Wilson, and Fitzpatrick were all given long term (3 or more year) contract extensions by Nix. In doing so, he affirmed they were necessary to his rebuilding, which he said would take 3-4 years.

 

He also signed Erik Pears, who last season affirmed why he was out of the league and had played for multiple teams in the preceding few seasons.

 

EDIT: McGee and Merriman had a 2 year deals IIRC.

 

Wasn't Pears hurt most of last season ? The year prior he did a good job ...

[Thurmal34]

Consider that the following players are gone, or likely to be gone: Fitzpatrick, Jones, Nelson, Levitre, Barnett, Meriman, Kelsay, Wilson.

 

Nearly all of those players were acquired and/or signed by Buddy Nix within the past few years. All of them were considered part of the "core" heading into the 2012 season.

 

By who, you?

 

Jones, Nelson, Barnett, Merriman, and Wilson clearly were not considered "core" guys by OBD. All the evidence says otherwise.

 

You listed two UDFAs, a castoff that signed late in FA, a mid-season waiver claim, and an old vet that was given a team friendly extension prior to '11. This is what you are using to grind your axe?

 

If you want to complain about Fitz and Levitre, fine, go ahead. But for the sake of all that is holy, please don't try to spin it like OBD ever said they were going to build around David freaking Nelson.

 

Get a grip man.

 

 

Nix signed Fitz to a large extension two years ago and said "he'll be our quarterback for a long time":

 

http://espn.go.com/n...es-new-contract

 

 

By "large" you mean Kolb and Cassel money, right?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Your facts are incomplete and/or wrong.

 

Whatever. Incomplete maybe, incorrect not. But hey, if it gets you off to throw "your facts are wrong, fact check" around, I'm glad I afforded you pleasure.

 

I could go point to point but there's really no purpose. The bottom line is, football is a young man's game. If a guy is drafted in 2003, considered a core in 2010, and "retires" ahead of the turk in 2013, that doesn't mean I'm "Nixing" (reneging on) my own decisions, it just means guys get older and lose a step or don't fit a new scheme and get cut. Ditto a competent player (Wilson) that I extended two years ago or an aging LB I picked up as a FA 2 years ago or an injured fallen star I signed 3 years ago that didn't work out. NFL = "not for long". That was then, this is now applies to every team, champ or chump.

 

I acknowledge "You also would have a valid point about the QB imbroglio, Fitz being another failed experiment in most people's view." Wasn't clear enough? I grant you Fitz being signed to a big contract, and not tendering Jones and Nelson who were signed in 2010 and are widely considered good young players, as Nix rescinding himself. Though again, signing an UDFA and 3 years later deciding you haven't seen what you wanted out of them is pretty SOP, champ or chump

 

Nix graded Levitre as one of his top 3 guards in the 2009 draft.

I'm the scout. It's my job to grade guys. I grade a guy top 3 guard. The team decides to draft him in the 2nd round. This makes him my "core guy" 4 years later, how? All it means is I thought he was one of the top 3 guards in that particular draft, it doesn't even mean he was my personal choice for the 2nd round board or I was the decision maker in the draft. What do you think are the draft responsibilities of the scouts vs. the head scout vs the GM?

 

I repeat: based on most of your examples, no, I don't think you can say Nix is shredding the "core" he tried to build. If Nix were cutting/trading Spiller, Troup, Carrington, Easley, Dareus, A. Williams, Sheppard, Searcy, Gilmore, Glenn, Graham, and Bradham, you'd have a point - all guys he drafted in the 1st 4 rounds. And we may well get there - Troup and Easley have yet to show us anything, Carrington may be servicable, Williams has not "found himself" at CB yet, and Dareus and Sheppard had disappointing seasons. Sheppard as the Mike was a fail last season IMO.

 

I'm not saying I think Nix has done a great job, I'm just saying you can't conclude he's "shredding the core he tried to build" because guys who came into the league in 2003/2004 and were extended 3 years ago on Nix's watch are now gone.

 

Nix's actions on QB certainly stand as inadequate at this point. It's not that he signed Fitz for "#10-15 QB" money , and Fitz didn't pan out as expected that's the problem. That happens. Cassel, Gabbert, TJax, Leinart, etc. It's that his other off-season actions were limited to 1 7th round draft choice, a couple of rookie UDFA in camp, and bringing in Vince Young, rather than taking a flier on a mid-round QB for 3 (three) drafts.

Edited March 7, 2013 by Hopeful

[Coach Tuesday]

Nix's actions on QB certainly stand as inadequate at this point. It's not that he signed Fitz for "#10-15 QB" money , and Fitz didn't pan out as expected that's the problem. That happens. Cassel, Gabbert, TJax, Leinart, etc. It's that his other off-season actions were limited to 1 7th round draft choice, a couple of rookie UDFA in camp, and bringing in Vince Young, rather than taking a flier on a mid-round QB for 3 (three) drafts.

 

I hear you, but here is the issue, as I see it: the guys we're now jettisoning, we do not have replacements for on the roster (except, maybe, Searcy). That tells me that Nix didn't plan for their departures.

 

If Nix was content to let Levitre walk, his replacement should've been drafted LAST year. He wasn't. Same with Fitz, Barnett, Jones, Nelson, etc. (altough I suppose T.J. Graham was supposed to replace Jones). Expelling aging vets/marginal players is fine - if you have capable replacements on the roster. That's not what the Bills are doing. They're hitting the "reset" button, jettisoning a bunch of last year's starters, and now they have to go fill those holes all over again. It's the definition of a rebuild.

[Dibs]

We are starting year 4 of the 3 year plan...

 

I never understood a 3 year plan for a rebuild. That's adding 7 new starters a year. That's crazy stuff.

[Al Cowlings]

I find it somewhat amazing that this offseason has seen the departure (and likely departure) - orchestrated by Nix - of much of the "nucleus" that Nix himself constructed.

 

Consider that the following players are gone, or likely to be gone: Fitzpatrick, Jones, Nelson, Levitre, Barnett, Meriman, Kelsay, Wilson.

 

Nearly all of those players were acquired and/or signed by Buddy Nix within the past few years. All of them were considered part of the "core" heading into the 2012 season.

 

And now Buddy Nix is orchestrating their departures.

 

It seems to me we might be in full-on rebuilding mode. What I find odd is that the GM overseeing the rebuilding is the same GM who built the foundation in the first place, and relatively recently. Seems somewhat anomalous for an NFL team to be doing that type of thing.

 

So my question is, are we in fact rebuilding? If so, are we comfortable with Nix as the architect? Personally, I have my doubts about Nix, but I wouldn't mind it if the Bills were to finally "bottom out" this year and become eligible for either Clowney or Manziel. I just don't want to hear their marketing garbage about how it's playoffs or bust this season. There are so many holes on this roster (most of them self-created) that I have trouble envisioning a successful season, absent a grand slam draft and free agency period.

 

Merriman was considered part of the core heading into 2012? Wasnt he cut and then signed later? Weak post.

[Sisyphean Bills]

I never understood a 3 year plan for a rebuild. That's adding 7 new starters a year. That's crazy stuff.

 

The average NFL team turns over 25% of its roster a year. There are outliers, but most (87.5%) teams fall within a +/- 3 player range per year.

 

So, an average team typically has 14 fresh new faces a year. Expecting half of them to be starters does seem pretty extreme. On the other hand, with 4 or 5 new starters a year, a team should be well down the road to being replaced in year 3 and all but entirely rebuilt (a better word might be reconstituted) in year 4.

[Dibs]

The average NFL team turns over 25% of its roster a year. There are outliers, but most (87.5%) teams fall within a +/- 3 player range per year.

 

So, an average team typically has 14 fresh new faces a year. Expecting half of them to be starters does seem pretty extreme. On the other hand, with 4 or 5 new starters a year, a team should be well down the road to being replaced in year 3 and all but entirely rebuilt (a better word might be reconstituted) in year 4.

 

I'd have to do some research(which I don't want to do).....but I'd say that your 25% is largely comprised of backups, below average starters & situational players.

 

Adding 5 solid starters(or better) in any given year would be an extremely good year. That would be hitting on 2 rookies & acquiring 3 FAs....not a likely situation.

[chris heff]

John Butler's still ancient history.

 

The reason the Bills are not at least a respectable team right now lies at Buddy's feet.

 

He's entering his 4th year as GM.

I agree I didn't bring up Butler, Independent did.

 

I also agree that this os on Nix, his biggest failures are hiring Chan and inability to draft a QB.

[clearwater cadet]

I don't really know if Nix is doing a good or bad job, but lets not forget that his and Gaily's first or maybe second year was the year of the lock out, and a majority of would be free agents, were tagged as restricted and the only thing out there were overpayed guys over the age of 30. He really didn't have free agents at his dispose for at least 1 of his 3 offseasons. I really think the sucess of the whole things rides on the Qb position, Deny it if you want, but fitz had 90% of us fooled, and the other 10% are lying. I think that nix and gaily planned on drafting a Qb, but they didn't think they would go as quickly as they did. Look at the redskins RG3 in the first, and Cousins in the 4th, who saw that coming, Same with seattle, 49ers, etc etc. I do think that both the bills and the sabres value there plays more then they should.

[Sisyphean Bills]

I'd have to do some research(which I don't want to do).....but I'd say that your 25% is largely comprised of backups, below average starters & situational players.

 

I never said or even meant to imply that the 25% turnover figure meant "average or above starters". That is obviously absurd (not to mention a slippery definition).

 

Adding 5 solid starters(or better) in any given year would be an extremely good year. That would be hitting on 2 rookies & acquiring 3 FAs....not a likely situation.

 

Not doing the research on averages, but taking the Buffalo Bills. Dick Jauron changed 10-13 starters (I'll pass on the average or better angle) from his 08 to 09 teams depending on how you want to count. And that wasn't even a "rebuild" situation with a new front office and coaching staff.

 

Another example: Seattle has only 3 starters left from before Pete Carroll took over, at the same time Buddy Nix came to Buffalo.

 

Now, the league-wide average is less. Good teams that win have much less reason or inclination to wholesale change out all of their starters in this fashion. The good teams, as one would expect, have the least amount of overall turnover in quality starters all the way down to 3rd stringers. Every team makes changes.

[Dibs]

I never said or even meant to imply that the 25% turnover figure meant "average or above starters". That is obviously absurd (not to mention a slippery definition).

 

 

 

Not doing the research on averages, but taking the Buffalo Bills. Dick Jauron changed 10-13 starters (I'll pass on the average or better angle) from his 08 to 09 teams depending on how you want to count. And that wasn't even a "rebuild" situation with a new front office and coaching staff.

 

Another example: Seattle has only 3 starters left from before Pete Carroll took over, at the same time Buddy Nix came to Buffalo.

 

Now, the league-wide average is less. Good teams that win have much less reason or inclination to wholesale change out all of their starters in this fashion. The good teams, as one would expect, have the least amount of overall turnover in quality starters all the way down to 3rd stringers. Every team makes changes.

 

I apologize. I wrongly assumed that your comment was one of misplaced emotional perspective......whereas in fact it was one of intellectual observation.

 

My only excuse is that misplaced emotional perspective seems to be the norm around here lately.