Does anyone think we move into the first round?

[freester]

Donahoe always seems to make the big splashy move at draft time.

[nick in* england]

Sure.... We have 2 players we could Franchise and trade, and Henry is a possibility to get in there too.......

[freester]

Sure.... We have 2 players we could Franchise and trade, and Henry is a possibility to get in there too.......

194978[/snapback]

 

 

I don't think the franchise and trade is a realistic option. No one is going to give up a #1 pick for JJ or PW

[Dennis in NC]

I don't think so. We don't have the ammo to move up.

 

There should be some good options in rounds 2, 3, and beyond. Not the big names, perhaps, but solid players.

 

I still think the #1 pick was well spent on Losman.

[Rico]

Only if someone drops on draft day.that TD really wants, but I don't think so.

[Rayzer32]

If the brass in Chicago is stupid, we could offer them Bledsoe, Henry and Reed for their #1 and maybe suck Edinger out of the deal somehow. But like I said, they would have to be STUPID, which is a possibility seeing how they drafted Grossman.

[Pete]

I highly doubt it. TD likes to trade down and gather extra picks. He has done well with later round picks. Last year was the exception with JP but we had to trade up to land him. I like the idea of trading Drew for Paul Edinger alot!

[nfreeman]

Freester, will you get a life already?

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I highly doubt it.  TD likes to trade down and gather extra picks.  He has done well with later round picks.  Last year was the exception with JP but we had to trade up to land him.  I like the idea of trading Drew for Paul Edinger alot!

195099[/snapback]

 

A feature of TDs activity seems to be that he is motivated by cap structure most of all and as such sees first round choices for being 50/50 for whether they will meet their value but 100% certain they will cause a 1st round hit to your salary cap.

 

This does not mean that he thinks first rounders have no value and are always to be avoided of course, but that he shows far more willingness to trade future 1st round picks to get value today and to see the first round picks as a commodity to be traded around rather than attribute the value to it that others seem to.

 

In my mind the record is thus:

 

2001- 1st year here and traded down the 1st rounder to get other picks. Good move it put our first round pick in a lower cash slot and we still got the 1st DB chosen fulfilling a clear need for us and we got extra picks when depth was a clear need in a rebuilding year. TD read the market beautifully.

 

2002- Picked MW which was a definite need and because McKinnie has sucked even worse than a troubled MW who seems to have turned it around this was the right choice to make. The high pick gave MW a huge salary for that slot but cetainly OL players are viewed as a far smaller risk than using the pick for a QB or most other positions.

 

2003- TD showed his willingness to trade what many people value as a grea resource for the benefit of getting a replacement QB for RJ the year before. In my mind the move itself was a wash for the Bills as Bledsoe not only helped with the off-field marketing of the team, but his play on the field where he had an excellent 1st half was a key to the Bills improving from 3-13 to 8-8. NE was raped in the first year of this deal as the accelerated cap hit of trading Bledsoe was a big part in costing them even a trip to the playoffs after the SB win. In addition the trade of the 1st rounder ended up being a middlin choice for NE rather than the top pick the Bills had when they traded for Bledsoe

 

Even more impressive in terms of TD reading the market beautifully in many regards is that he was able to reacquire a 1st rounder with an an unusual and nifty transition tagging of PP. Even better than that he used the newly acquired 1st to make a surprising pick of WM who has turned out to merit his #3 rating among collegians in that draft but the Bills got him with a low 20s pick. This low slot allowed TD to sign WM to a very cap friendly incentive laden deal with a 5th year option.

 

As I think about this, I am even more impressed as TD once again correctly read the rush on DL players (a clear Bill need) as allowing him to pass on Kelsay in the 1st round (few would have labeled this pick outrageous if we spent our 1st rounder on Kelsay) and instead get him in the 2nd. All that has occured makes me willing to label this one of the best drafts I;ve seen a GM pull off.

 

2004- Once again the Bills meet a clear need by drafting a WR in the first which more than justifies his huge cap hit because Evans production has paid off handsomely in terms of his production and Moulds once again making almost 100 receptions after his injury year. His pick of JP once again shows good awareness of cap value as the 2005 QB class looks very weak and if you want a QB of the future you will not find him with a pick in the 20s but with a top 5 or so pick in 2005. Though JP is slotted in the 20s, the fact he was our second pick in the draft was actually a rate limiting factor which denied him the usual premium QBs get particularly when they are your first pick.

 

I think this adds up to us be unlikely to add a 1st rounder this year as I have yet to here of any player who will go in the first after the top 10 picks who fits a clear need for us like Evans at WR, Clements in the late 20s or even Kelsay (who was deemed by some a late 1st round talent who we got in the 2nd).

 

I doubt TD will want us to go on the hook for big money for a player who does not address a big need who can probably be had later in the draft (for example we really need a kicker who can be a weapon but Nugent should be there in the 2nd round and may be there in the third).

[Bill from NYC]

Great post FFS. That was a good TD draft recap.

I too think that the odds of the Bills moving into round 1 are slim. We dont have extra picks to offer, and I have made my prediction as to what we will get for Henry (if anything) well known.

There is always a chance of TD trying to move up in other rounds. He seems to love taking chances in the draft and this year will probably be the same.

I think that many will be surprised by his early selections.

[scribo]

The only way TD could move us into the 1st is to package a second or third with other later picks and/orr Henry. Don't see us with any needs big enough to do so. This draft should be about building solid depth on o-line and secondary. This draft won't be full of rookie-year starters anyway. To echo others here, all bets are off if a big name drops too far for TD to ignore.

[BRH]

My only caveat is that we should watch the teams that end up picking directly ahead of Pittsburgh. I'm sure TD wouldn't mind jumping in line just ahead of the Steelers if he thinks they're going to take a guy he wants. (Of course, he did that with Ryan Denney and that didn't exactly work out all that well...)

[Mickey]

Donahoe always seems to make the big splashy move at draft time.

194975[/snapback]

Nope.

 

The one way he does it is to trade our 2006 first rounder along with some other goodies like he did last year to get the Losman pick late in the first. That might not be a bad idea if he thinks we are a playmaker or two away from the promised land. That is when you trade against your future to make it happen today. The pick would be a late first rounder, similar to what happened with Losman. Is there anyone that late that is a key guy given our needs?

[BRH]

Nope.

 

The one way he does it is to trade our 2006 first rounder along with some other goodies like he did last year to get the Losman pick late in the first.  That might not be a bad idea if he thinks we are a playmaker or two away from the promised land.  That is when you trade against your future to make it happen today.  The pick would be a late first rounder, similar to what happened with Losman.  Is there anyone that late that is a key guy given our needs?

195296[/snapback]

I'm no draft expert and can't speak to the quality of the late first round in 2005, but remember that the last two years we traded up into the first round, we got guys that we knew were at least a year away from contributing -- McGahee and Losman. I have yet to see TD make a move up to grab a guy he thought could play NOW. Generally those people are in the top ten, and we don't have what it takes to get up there. Rolling the dice on a late first rounder to give you that "one player" you need to get to the promised land THIS YEAR? That's a good way to get fired.

[John in VA Beach]

I don't think he moves up, but am confident that Td will make a move if it makes good sense. I don't think he is going in with idea of getting back into the first round just to do so.

 

I see our needs as TE, OL and PK, of course a monster pass rusher is always nice too-- and we need some depth. I don't think we draft a pass rusher early. If TD goes for a pass rusher, I hope it will be a prooven commodity in FA. However, a TE, OL and especially quality kicker can be aquired later in the draft.