BisonMan Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 (edited) I've seen and felt a lot of optimism regarding the Bills 2012 roster on this site over the past three months. It got me thinking that I generally equate top teams with the talent on their roster. On most top teams, I can point out a number of players on their roster that I would put in the top 5 in the league in their positions (especially QB). In looking at the Bills roster in recent years, I didn't see any Top-5 players at any position outside of punter (Moorman). Reviewing the roster today things look a bit different: Offense QB - not top 5 (or even 10?) RB - Freddie is definitely Top-5 TE - nope WR - I like Stevie but don't think he's T5 OT - nope OG - Levitre is looking good but I wouldn't classify him as T5 yet with zero Pro-Bowls or All-Pro years. C - Wood is good, not great (when healthy) K - sorry, need more power P - Moorman may be near the T5 still but likely not any more Defense DT - K. Williams could be T5 back in his old 4-3 position. Darius might be there in a year or two DE - Super Mario is T5 when healthy OLB - nope MLB - nope CB - I have high hopes but completely unproven S - Wilson is a great field general but not T5. Byrd might be close. So, going through our starters, I only see one sure fire T5 player on each side of the ball. Everything else rides on the dreaded "potential". By pure chance, a team should have 4 Top-5 players on their roster. Opinions? Edited May 22, 2012 by BisonMan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt in KC Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 I've seen and felt a lot of optimism regarding the Bills 2012 roster on this site over the past three months. It got me thinking that I generally equate top teams with the talent on their roster. On most top teams, I can point out a number of players on their roster that I would put in the top 5 in the league in their positions (especially QB). In looking at the Bills roster in recent years, I didn't see any Top-5 players at any position outside of punter (Moorman). Reviewing the roster today things look a bit different: Offense QB - not top 5 (or even 10?) RB - Freddie is definitely Top-5 TE - nope WR - I like Stevie but don't think he's T5 OT - nope OG - Levitre is looking good but I wouldn't classify him as T5 yet with zero Pro-Bowls or All-Pro years. C - Wood is good, not great (when healthy) K - sorry, need more power P - Moorman may be near the T5 still but likely not any more Defense DT - K. Williams could be T5 back in his old 4-3 position. Darius might be there in a year or two DE - Super Mario is T5 when healthy OLB - nope MLB - nope CB - I have high hopes but completely unproven S - Wilson is a great field general but not T5. Byrd might be close. So, going through our starters, I only see one sure fire T5 player on each side of the ball. Everything else rides on the dreaded "potential". By pure chance, a team should have 4 Top-5 players on their roster. Opinions? Sorry if I'm being thick, but cn you explain that? I see you've listed 15 categories, so there are 75 "top 5 players" filling these. Divided by 32 is an average of 2.34 per team if it was random, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brenty Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 I've seen and felt a lot of optimism regarding the Bills 2012 roster on this site over the past three months. It got me thinking that I generally equate top teams with the talent on their roster. On most top teams, I can point out a number of players on their roster that I would put in the top 5 in the league in their positions (especially QB). In looking at the Bills roster in recent years, I didn't see any Top-5 players at any position outside of punter (Moorman). Reviewing the roster today things look a bit different: Offense QB - not top 5 (or even 10?) RB - Freddie is definitely Top-5 TE - nope WR - I like Stevie but don't think he's T5 OT - nope OG - Levitre is looking good but I wouldn't classify him as T5 yet with zero Pro-Bowls or All-Pro years. C - Wood is good, not great (when healthy) K - sorry, need more power P - Moorman may be near the T5 still but likely not any more Defense DT - K. Williams could be T5 back in his old 4-3 position. Darius might be there in a year or two DE - Super Mario is T5 when healthy OLB - nope MLB - nope CB - I have high hopes but completely unproven S - Wilson is a great field general but not T5. Byrd might be close. So, going through our starters, I only see one sure fire T5 player on each side of the ball. Everything else rides on the dreaded "potential". By pure chance, a team should have 4 Top-5 players on their roster. Opinions? what gives you that idea that you need to have 4 top 5 players? I can look at patriots who went to the super bowl and say top 5 qb, top 5 wr and maybe top te i really dont believe anyone on there D is top 5 and there oline is a hit and miss to me. and who ranks them top 5? fans? experts? players? I believe you just need the top 5 coaches. You can get any player that has the ability to learn and coach him right and win. I think if bills just had the top 5 wr or the top 5 kicker and all we had were undrafted free agents under chan i would be happy. I believe chan is in the top 5 coaches last year and he will be this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hplarrm Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 what gives you that idea that you need to have 4 top 5 players? I can look at patriots who went to the super bowl and say top 5 qb, top 5 wr and maybe top te i really dont believe anyone on there D is top 5 and there oline is a hit and miss to me. and who ranks them top 5? fans? experts? players? I believe you just need the top 5 coaches. You can get any player that has the ability to learn and coach him right and win. I think if bills just had the top 5 wr or the top 5 kicker and all we had were undrafted free agents under chan i would be happy. I believe chan is in the top 5 coaches last year and he will be this year. The Pats are a good example of folks getting a little confused about what is a cause and what is an effect. Do the Pats perform wel because their players are top 5 talents (as this thread seems to suggest) or alternately, do their players perform at a top 5 level because their system and coaches are so good. I think it is unclear which comes first and in fact this actually occurs because a team happens upon the right combination of talented players, good coaching and in some cases dumb luck to make it all work. Great examples of this are fellows like Tom Brady and Wes Welker. Are they at the top 5 at their positions. Yep, no doubt. However, were theses players judged by the entire league as worth passing by as likely not good enough players to be worthy of much investment? Yepper! Welker, the most productive WR in the league today by many measures was actually rejected by the team which had him and was available to the entire league in a trade for not a huge cost. Brady, arguably the best performer in the NFL was passed over 5 and for many teams six times for a mere draft pick. It quite easily might be the case that players you (and likely many of us would agree) are clearly not top 5 talents at their positions MIGHT well become top 5 performers in the right system with the right coaching. Did you have Fred Jackson as a top 5 talent when we got him as a UDFA out of Coe? Personally, I do not have Fitzy as a top 5 QB in the NFL, but I actually think he might well perform like one in a Gailey system which emphasizes the smarts this Harvard guy seems to have and a degree of athleticism which is good but not great. One of the things which makes the NFL a fun league to watch ia that under the right exotic and unpredictable situation an OK player can become a top 5 performer at his position. For example, Brady is an excellent performer who I think easily could have spent the better part of his career either on the bench or never even seen the light of day if were not for an extraordinary collapsed lung which hit Bledsoe. If Bledsoe had not been knocked out (for the most part of the season, I really doubt that Bellicheat would have benched Bledsoe for Brady and history would simply be different. Sure Brady might have proved to be as good a performer as he has been and eventually he would have forced his way into the line-up and proved to be the top 5 performer he is. However, my GUESS is that by the time he would have done this Bellicheat would have produced a record as a not winning HC to rival his one playoff win in 5 years at Cleveland with Bledsoe at QB and likely would have been gone from the NFL as an HC. The Bills do need top 5 talents at various positions, but my sense is that the current optimism about the team might be justified under the Gailey system which sees either Jax or Spiller, Stevie Johnson (if he finally becomes mature), perhaps even Fitzy, Mario, Byrd, or one of a couple of other youngsters become top 5 performers in a productive system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just in Atlanta Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 How many top 5s can you possibly have? Is there some stat that says Superbowl teams have four top-five players? How about this prediction, instead: Mario Williams top 5 sacks. Fred Jackson top 5 yards. Fred Jackson top 5 yards per attempt. Fred Jackson top 5 20-plus yard runs. CJ Spiller top 5 rushing TDs. George Wilson top 5 INTs. Ryan Fitzmagic top 5 least sacked QB. Top 5 running back duo. Top 5 safety duo. Top 5 defensive line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BisonMan Posted May 22, 2012 Author Share Posted May 22, 2012 Sorry if I'm being thick, but cn you explain that? I see you've listed 15 categories, so there are 75 "top 5 players" filling these. Divided by 32 is an average of 2.34 per team if it was random, right? Sorry, I was counting 11 players on each side of the ball plus two kickers. That's 24 positions times 5 per position. That's 120 "Top-5" players across the league, or about 3.75 (~4) per team. I should have broken out that there are 2 each of OT, OG, DT, DE,etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brenty Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 i just dont see how you need 4 top 5's to be elite, you never really know what you have until you start winning games and then players get praised. Great example, look at 49ers... i honestly think they have 0 in the top 5 and they did hella better then we did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 I'm sorry, BisonMan, but I think this is a misguided attempt to come up with an "elite player" formula that predicts team success. Good teams have good players and good coaches. There; I've solved the riddle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BisonMan Posted May 22, 2012 Author Share Posted May 22, 2012 what gives you that idea that you need to have 4 top 5 players? I can look at patriots who went to the super bowl and say top 5 qb, top 5 wr and maybe top te i really dont believe anyone on there D is top 5 and there oline is a hit and miss to me. and who ranks them top 5? fans? experts? players? I believe you just need the top 5 coaches. You can get any player that has the ability to learn and coach him right and win. I think if bills just had the top 5 wr or the top 5 kicker and all we had were undrafted free agents under chan i would be happy. I believe chan is in the top 5 coaches last year and he will be this year. I never said "need" 4 Top 5 players. I was making a general observation for which there are likely many counter examples. The 2010 Colts are a great example of a team without a lot of Top5 players but a HOF QB can mask a lot of problems as we saw with the 2011 Colts. I would argue that the 2011 Pats may have had a number of Top5 players on the roster outside of Brady (Welker, Light, Warren (?), Wilfork, Arrignton, Gronk). I do think coaching is important but without the players it's really hard to win. Jeff Fisher is a great coach but the Titans weren't so hot in his last few years there because they didn't have the players, particularly at QB. I'm sorry, BisonMan, but I think this is a misguided attempt to come up with an "elite player" formula that predicts team success. Good teams have good players and good coaches. There; I've solved the riddle. Rather than coming up a a formula, I was trying to point out that the Bills are improving their talent, which will likely lead to success and that their previous rosters (drafts) were devoid of players that were elite players. Things are looking up! BTW, love the sushi dolphin graphic. i just dont see how you need 4 top 5's to be elite, you never really know what you have until you start winning games and then players get praised. Great example, look at 49ers... i honestly think they have 0 in the top 5 and they did hella better then we did. Again, I don't think you "need" 4, but by pure luck you'd get 4. More talented teams might have more. SF has a number of elite players Alden Smith, P. Willis, Frank "Kill the Head" Gore, Vernon Davis, Donte Witner (just kidding)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brenty Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 I never said "need" 4 Top 5 players. I was making a general observation for which there are likely many counter examples. The 2010 Colts are a great example of a team without a lot of Top5 players but a HOF QB can mask a lot of problems as we saw with the 2011 Colts. I would argue that the 2011 Pats may have had a number of Top5 players on the roster outside of Brady (Welker, Light, Warren (?), Wilfork, Arrignton, Gronk). I do think coaching is important but without the players it's really hard to win. Jeff Fisher is a great coach but the Titans weren't so hot in his last few years there because they didn't have the players, particularly at QB. Rather than coming up a a formula, I was trying to point out that the Bills are improving their talent, which will likely lead to success and that their previous rosters (drafts) were devoid of players that were elite players. Things are looking up! BTW, love the sushi dolphin graphic. Again, I don't think you "need" 4, but by pure luck you'd get 4. More talented teams might have more. SF has a number of elite players Alden Smith, P. Willis, Frank "Kill the Head" Gore, Vernon Davis, Donte Witner (just kidding)... but none of those are in the top 5 players of their category. I fail to see the point of your post. you dont say need but you say we are slowly getting elite players. is your post about, hey if you have elite players then you can win? And elite and top 5 are totally different. I honestly dont think we have any top 5 players in any category. I think we have great players and if you have a group of great players, pro bowl or not you can win with the right coach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Best Player Available Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Billy Beane has the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macaroni Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 If we had more top 5 players maybe we could call ourself "the dream team" ... just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wooderson Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Top Players become "Top Players" because they're a part of a Top Team. You can't really have one without the other in a game like football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrags Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Unfortunately for your argument, tye Cilfs proved that you can have an elite team with just one top 5 player. It's simple. Payton Manning was top 3 at his position and they were dominant. Payton gets injured, you end up with Kerry Collins or Curtis Painter and you become the worst team in the league by a long shot. I'm not going on about how an all pro QB is all you need to be a top team. I wouldn't want a team that was based around only the QB ever. Just proving a point that you don't NEED 4-5 guys that are top 5. We have guys that are good enough to win. When our starters were in and healthy last yer we went 5-2. It's when we started losing guys to injury and didn't have the depth to sustain the lack of talent. If Stevie, Fred, Dareus, Byrd, Levitre, Wood, Jones, Williams, Barnett, and Fitz can stay healthy and even come close to how they were producing in the first half of last year we will be in the playoffs. Oh ya, the last if..... IF Chan doesn't outsmart himself and get too pas happy it should help our chances as well. We need to be like the Steelers the first year they won it with Ben, the Pats the first 2 SBs they won with Tommy Boy, and the Giants when they won it in 06. Run first, clock management, heavy defense, play not to lose when you have the lead type of football. If that happens we will be fine. Let Fitz manage the game, not play HOF QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I've seen and felt a lot of optimism regarding the Bills 2012 roster on this site over the past three months. It got me thinking that I generally equate top teams with the talent on their roster. On most top teams, I can point out a number of players on their roster that I would put in the top 5 in the league in their positions (especially QB). In looking at the Bills roster in recent years, I didn't see any Top-5 players at any position outside of punter (Moorman). Reviewing the roster today things look a bit different: Offense QB - not top 5 (or even 10?) RB - Freddie is definitely Top-5 TE - nope WR - I like Stevie but don't think he's T5 OT - nope OG - Levitre is looking good but I wouldn't classify him as T5 yet with zero Pro-Bowls or All-Pro years. C - Wood is good, not great (when healthy) K - sorry, need more power P - Moorman may be near the T5 still but likely not any more Defense DT - K. Williams could be T5 back in his old 4-3 position. Darius might be there in a year or two DE - Super Mario is T5 when healthy OLB - nope MLB - nope CB - I have high hopes but completely unproven S - Wilson is a great field general but not T5. Byrd might be close. So, going through our starters, I only see one sure fire T5 player on each side of the ball. Everything else rides on the dreaded "potential". By pure chance, a team should have 4 Top-5 players on their roster. Opinions? Too true, Here is praying that potential comes through. I would put Wood top 5 for centers he just needs to stay healthy and Levitre gets better every year so him too. But QB and WR not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsrcursed Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 but none of those are in the top 5 players of their category. I fail to see the point of your post. you dont say need but you say we are slowly getting elite players. is your post about, hey if you have elite players then you can win? And elite and top 5 are totally different. I honestly dont think we have any top 5 players in any category. I think we have great players and if you have a group of great players, pro bowl or not you can win with the right coach. You don't think Patrick Willis is a top 5 LB??? Also, all this talk about not having top 5 talent and still winning, yet nobody mentioned the Superbowl Champs yet.... perfect example, though one could argue for 1 or 2 of their DE's, but they aren't clear cut top 5's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brenty Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 You don't think Patrick Willis is a top 5 LB??? Also, all this talk about not having top 5 talent and still winning, yet nobody mentioned the Superbowl Champs yet.... perfect example, though one could argue for 1 or 2 of their DE's, but they aren't clear cut top 5's. for me i think clay matthew, demarcus war, james harrison, jerod mayo, bria urlacher were better then him last year but that is my opinion. i think willis is 5th /6th for me but that is last year. because honestly who knows who will be in the top 5 year to year, that is my whole point is that every year there is a new top 5 and the only way you are in the top 5 is if your team does well. If fitzy some how throws for an insane number of yards people will throw nelson and stevie into the top 5 for some reason. Are they better than fitzgerald or megatron no but they might out produce them and be thrown in. So if you look at the super bowl champs, nyg and go oh ya they had 6 top 5 players thats why they won... but if you jump back to the beginning of the season you might say they had no one at all, everyone on that team is just average. I think at the end of every year there is a top 5 group and it changes every time. you just never know, plus i had a lot of beer and i am drunk woohooo go bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Ok, I'm going to play this little game. Here are my projections for current Bills who "could" be top 5 in the league at their positions: Offense: RB -- Jackson LG -- Levitre Defense: DE -- M. Williams DT -- Dareus AND K. Williams FS -- Byrd And, now, here are players I believe could be top 10 at their positions: Offense: RB -- Spiller WR -- Johnson C -- Wood Defense: SS -- Wilson So that's 10 current Buffalo Bills I believe could be within the top 10 in the league at their positions. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts