Who genuinely thinks they can scout college talent better than Nix?

[QCity]

Fantasy football has incorrectly convinced people that they have more football smarts than the average GM. Fans see a list by Kiper/McShay with 1 paragraph blurbs about players and take that as gospel. Hindsight is always 20-20, but I remember there was a very large contingent on here screaming for Clausen. Of course, today, we only have a group that "knew all along" he was going to be a bust

 

I think Johnathan Martin is the perfect example of this. Kiper and McShay had him listed as the #3 OT back in January/February. People saw this, looked at his size, read a 2-sentence summary of him, and concluded he must be our #10 pick. When I see Martin, I see a guy who played in the Pac-10 and didn't have to face many dominant pass rushers. I see a guy who played with an incredibly smart QB who could read defenses, get the ball out quick, sniff out blitzes and avoid the sack. Of course that's my opinion, I only seen him play 1 game last year. I also think there's about a 95% chance we call Kirkpatrick's name with our 10th pick.

[mjt328]

Lots of arrogance in this thread. Perhaps a new thread is warranted. My question would be this. Who is willing to pay you as much as $1000.00 in a calendar year for your opinions on personnel decisions in any sport and at any level? If your wasting your talents away in your current day job then I think that is incredibly tragic and a lesson in true failure to all the kids out there.

 

I think it's funny that you so easily discount the knowledge of football fans that have been watching this sport their whole lives.

A lot of us live, breathe and die football. And just because we don't a career as a professional scout, it doesn't make us complete idiots.

 

If the Bills traded Kyle Williams tomorrow for a seventh round pick, would you be upset? Or would you just trust the front office?

OF COURSE you would be MAD, because you can see by watching the games that Kyle Williams is a very good football player. And based on the odds, you know that most seventh round picks aren't even good enough to make an NFL roster. You don't need to be a SCOUT to tell that it's a horrible-lopsided trade.

 

 

Honestly, scouting the top college playes isn't much different.

Obviously, fans don't have access to all the game film that top scouts have. And they don't have the time or resources to track every eligible player in the country.

But they do have the time and resources to form educated opinions about the top group of prospects. You don't need a draft magazine to figure out that Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin and Justin Blackmon are top NFL prospects. All you need is a television tuned into the Stanford, Baylor or Oklahoma State games.

[ARMchairgm]

I could draft better and scout better.

[Kelly the Dog]

Well, I think bringing up the last 15 years is a little off topic. I think Kelly meant to discuss who can scout/evaluate better than nix (not so much making draft picks, but scouting).

I did mean only Nix. I do think I could draft as good as Dick Jauron and Russ Brandon.

 

I also think there is a ton of luck, both good and bad, on making the right choices, especially in the first round. And few GMs on any team are consistently right. Plus a player drafted on Team A with good players and coaches around him is going to turn into a far better player in all likelihood than he would on a team with crappy coaching and players.

 

But this thread was about Nix studying tape, watching players perform in person, listening to his scouts and making good selections overall, all the way down the line in the draft.

[Wayne Cubed]

I think it's funny that you so easily discount the knowledge of football fans that have been watching this sport their whole lives.

A lot of us live, breathe and die football. And just because we don't a career as a professional scout, it doesn't make us complete idiots.

 

If the Bills traded Kyle Williams tomorrow for a seventh round pick, would you be upset? Or would you just trust the front office?

OF COURSE you would be MAD, because you can see by watching the games that Kyle Williams is a very good football player. And based on the odds, you know that most seventh round picks aren't even good enough to make an NFL roster. You don't need to be a SCOUT to tell that it's a horrible-lopsided trade.

 

 

Honestly, scouting the top college playes isn't much different.

Obviously, fans don't have access to all the game film that top scouts have. And they don't have the time or resources to track every eligible player in the country.

But they do have the time and resources to form educated opinions about the top group of prospects. You don't need a draft magazine to figure out that Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin and Justin Blackmon are top NFL prospects. All you need is a television tuned into the Stanford, Baylor or Oklahoma State games.

 

Here's the Million Dollar question, how much of this actual "scouting" have you done? With modern technologies its very easy to read articles, watch clips and so on. Guess what the problem with that is? Someone has basically done the scouting part for you. You didn't go to the games and watch all these players. The media hypes certain players in college and then its really easy to latch on and say you think this person will be a star. But if there weren't media outlets doing this how much talent would you really be able to evaluate? Would you make such brazen statements about how right you are?

[QCity]

I think it's funny that you so easily discount the knowledge of football fans that have been watching this sport their whole lives.

I don't know, I see a lot of people that can't accurately judge the talent on their own team that they follow religiously, let alone a college team they probably didn't even watch. If you were outraged at the Lee Evans trade, raise your hand.

 

 

Here's the Million Dollar question, how much of this actual "scouting" have you done? With modern technologies its very easy to read articles, watch clips and so on. Guess what the problem with that is? Someone has basically done the scouting part for you. You didn't go to the games and watch all these players. The media hypes certain players in college and then its really easy to latch on and say you think this person will be a star. But if there weren't media outlets doing this how much talent would you really be able to evaluate? Would you make such brazen statements about how right you are?

Exactly! Use someone else to assess the talent and tweak it slightly based on what you think we need. I'm a scout!

[mjt328]

Fantasy football has incorrectly convinced people that they have more football smarts than the average GM. Fans see a list by Kiper/McShay with 1 paragraph blurbs about players and take that as gospel. Hindsight is always 20-20, but I remember there was a very large contingent on here screaming for Clausen. Of course, today, we only have a group that "knew all along" he was going to be a bust

 

I think Johnathan Martin is the perfect example of this. Kiper and McShay had him listed as the #3 OT back in January/February. People saw this, looked at his size, read a 2-sentence summary of him, and concluded he must be our #10 pick. When I see Martin, I see a guy who played in the Pac-10 and didn't have to face many dominant pass rushers. I see a guy who played with an incredibly smart QB who could read defenses, get the ball out quick, sniff out blitzes and avoid the sack. Of course that's my opinion, I only seen him play 1 game last year. I also think there's about a 95% chance we call Kirkpatrick's name with our 10th pick.

 

It's not about fantasy football. It's about common sense.

For example, just last year with Blaine Gabbert.

 

According to ESPN and most media outlets, Gabbert was very highly rated by most NFL GMs. Scouts loved his size and arm strength. He looked great in drills and spectacular on his pro day. There were times when they speculated Carolina would take him #1 instead of Cam Newton. There were plenty of people that thought WE should take him at #3 instead of Dareus or Von Miller. And sure enough, Jacksonville ended up taking him at the #10 spot.

 

HOWEVER... There were PLENTY of people on this board (myself included) that wouldn't touch Gabbert with a ten-foot pole. Watching about 5-6 Missouri games, I felt it was obvious that Gabbert didn't have the skill to play at an NFL level. Apparently many others agreed with me. Despite playing in a pass-friendly offense, Gabbert spent most of his games checking down and throwing dump offs. He rarely tested downfield and when he did, the passes were way off target.

 

A year later, the Jaguars are already prepared to give up on him. He looks like a complete BUST.

 

So my question is... If none of the fans here know anything, why were so many right about Gabbert?

[ARMchairgm]

so after the draft we make a thread on who we wouldve drafted instead at the same exact spots and see who has better players

[RealityCheck]

I think it's funny that you so easily discount the knowledge of football fans that have been watching this sport their whole lives.

A lot of us live, breathe and die football. And just because we don't a career as a professional scout, it doesn't make us complete idiots.

 

If the Bills traded Kyle Williams tomorrow for a seventh round pick, would you be upset? Or would you just trust the front office?

OF COURSE you would be MAD, because you can see by watching the games that Kyle Williams is a very good football player. And based on the odds, you know that most seventh round picks aren't even good enough to make an NFL roster. You don't need to be a SCOUT to tell that it's a horrible-lopsided trade.

 

 

Honestly, scouting the top college playes isn't much different.

Obviously, fans don't have access to all the game film that top scouts have. And they don't have the time or resources to track every eligible player in the country.

But they do have the time and resources to form educated opinions about the top group of prospects. You don't need a draft magazine to figure out that Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin and Justin Blackmon are top NFL prospects. All you need is a television tuned into the Stanford, Baylor or Oklahoma State games.

Thank you for proving my point. If you interpreted my post as calling people complete idiots then interpreting what you see in a college game to me is a waste of time. Using an example of Kyle being traded for a 7th round pick is complete science fiction. Trading Lee Evans away for a 4th seemed horrible to many at the time. Today that trade looks far better. If you see players and personnel moves in such an extreme black and white fashion then you probably don't understand anything about human resource work in general. We all have our opinions on these things but some of you guys take yourselves so seriously it takes the fun out of the discussions. I could be wrong but your response seems to be an emotional one.

[MarkyMannn]

Let me just add: Stevie Wonder had a better eye for talent than Tom Modrak

[Kelly the Dog]

so after the draft we make a thread on who we wouldve drafted instead at the same exact spots and see who has better players

That wouldn't be accurate either. Sometimes it takes players a year or two to become good. Sometimes guys start out with a bang and then fizzle. Some guys on Team A would be way better or way worse than that same player on Team B or C or D.

[QCity]

So my question is... If none of the fans here know anything,

Well I never said that. I implied that the majority of fans here can't scout college talent better than Nix (thread title). I'm sure there are a few that can.

 

I also would like to note that when someone is wrong on a message board, it's easy to hide from that prediction and never mention it again. However when someone is right....oh man, you will here about it until the end of time. This gives the illusion that more people were correct. I mean, everyone on this board would have taken Ngata over Whitner, you would be insane not to!!

Edited March 23, 2012 by QCity

[EldaBillsFan]

C,j, spiller is shaping up to be a great pick....end of the day Lynch foundd new life in seattle, and Fred jackson in rb years should be dead....

[Kelly the Dog]

I know I might sound cocky and arrogant, but I honestly don't think it's that hard to spot NFL talent.

To answer your post, I haven't decided yet who I think the Bills should draft at #10. Some of the players I would consider at that spot are Dre Kirkpatrick, Michael Floyd and Riley Reiff.

 

 

> Kirkpatrick reminds me of Antoine Winfield. He isn't going to show up on the highlight reel every week, but he's very solid in coverage and an excellent tackler. With all the dink-and-dunk offenses around the NFL, I think he would be a valuable addition.

> Floyd is an excellent all-around recevier, who would be the perfect addition to this offense. I especially like his ability to go up high and get the ball on deep passes, but he's also good at short and intermediate routes.

> Reiff's success in this league will depend on his ability to add strength and get better using his hands. If he can't do that, he's going to be a right tackle in the NFL.

 

 

 

Some of the players that I don't like (who have been discussed as our picks at #10) are Ryan Tannehill, Jonathan Martin, Stephen Hill, Quinton Coples and Courtney Upshaw.

 

> Tannehill is going to be a middle of the road quarterback in this league. Somebody is going to invest a high first round or high second round pick on him, and it won't be worth it.

> Martin struggles to hold blocks at the second level and gets beat too easily by good pass rushers. He's got the frame scouts like, though, so he'll get picked somewhere on day one.

> Stephen Hill has all the intangibles you look for - speed, size, hands - but he just doesn't have enough production. There has to be a reason that his college career was so unspectacular.

> Coples doesn't have the speed or moves to get around the edge. He can be a solid 3-4 end, but he will disappoint as a 4-3 pass rusher.

> Upshaw might have some success as a 3-4 outside linebacker, but I hate his overall effort on the field. He doesn't chase down plays and is inconsistent as a pass rusher.

 

 

For the record, I'm torn on Melvin Ingram. I think he's an incredible athlete and decent pass rusher. I just wouldn't take him at #10 and I don't think he fits our defensive scheme.

Let see... You have been here a year and ...

 

In your first post you said Spiller will never live up to being a top ten pick.

#2 you said Fitz will never be anything and Sanchez is a big game QB.

#3 post was a winner. The question was of the first five players drafted, who will be the best. Here is your answer.

Cam Newton will be bad for a few years, then the Panthers will have to start over.

Von Miller will be alright, but I don't think he will do well in a 4-3 defense.

Marcell Dareus will be a very good player, but it probably won't show in the stats.

AJ Green will take 2-3 years to become the player he can be, but then he'll start making Pro Bowls regularly.

Patrick Peterson will be good, but will never live up to his potential as a Revis-type shut down cornerback.

[Billy in 4C]

spiller was BPA. dareus was BPA. this year it will be BPA.

 

the old regimes have done poor, sure. and chix havent hit on every pick.

 

but i like the approach and it will pay off.

 

unlike "popular" picks like gabbert for example.

 

Disagree- you are right the first two years was BPA, and I agree with the philosophy to do this. However, this year I think they are focused on winning now. They spent the first two years re-tooling the roster. Now they feel they can build an immediate contender. If BPA is a DE or QB or another position they don't feel is a priorty, they won't take it because they already have their guys. Look for BPA of the positions in need - OL, WR, LB, CB

[mjt328]

Here's the Million Dollar question, how much of this actual "scouting" have you done? With modern technologies its very easy to read articles, watch clips and so on. Guess what the problem with that is? Someone has basically done the scouting part for you. You didn't go to the games and watch all these players. The media hypes certain players in college and then its really easy to latch on and say you think this person will be a star. But if there weren't media outlets doing this how much talent would you really be able to evaluate? Would you make such brazen statements about how right you are?

 

 

Who cares if the media does most of the work? I don't need to do all those things behind the scenes in order to form an educated opinion about a player's talent.

All I care about is determining whether players like Ryan Tannehill, Trent Richardson or Justin Blackmon are worth the hype they are getting.

 

Try doing these two things in your spare time:

1) Watch some games in college

2) Watch some actual game film (not highlights) of top prospects on websites like www.draftbreakdown.com and www.mainboard.com

 

 

The point is, there are a lot of regular football fans that know what they are talking about.

A lot of fans ON THIS BOARD were outraged when Buffalo took Donte Whitner instead of Haloti Ngata or Broderick Bunkley. A lot of fans ON THIS BOARD were dumfounded when Buffalo drafted Aaron Maybin instead of Brian Orakpo, Clay Matthews or Brian Cushing.

This was not hindsight. In all of these cases, the Bills would have been better off listening to a regular fan instead of their high-paid scouts.

[hondo in seattle]

I'm smart enough to know I can't evaluate talent better than Nix or any other NFL general manager. Or better than any lowly regional scout, as far as that goes. Yet I still know Matt Millen was a horrendous GM for Detroit. And I can back that opinion up with facts - wins and losses being chief obvious amongst them.

 

So far, Buddy's been producing 6 win seasons. That's not good. But I appreciate the size of the problem he inherited and things seem to be turning in the right direction. I'm excited to see what the Nix accomplishes in this and future years.

 

In my unprofessional opinion, anyone who thinks they can evaluate football talent better than the professionals (Millen exempted) is deluded.

[hmsmystic]

It will feel really good (hopefully soon) when we can not look back at recent drafts with horror. As Bills fans the best part of most of the last 10 drafts has been the second guessing rather than the actual players we have.

Many of us geek out for this and watch the draft with our books in hand hoping this player or that is taken, then furiously scrambling to look up who we picked and get the details.

 

Last year was the first where we can away feeling ok- no shockers -

 

It is, maybe, perhaps possible we have our act together???

[Wayne Cubed]

Who cares if the media does most of the work? I don't need to do all those things behind the scenes in order to form an educated opinion about a player's talent.

All I care about is determining whether players like Ryan Tannehill, Trent Richardson or Justin Blackmon are worth the hype they are getting.

 

Try doing these two things in your spare time:

1) Watch some games in college

2) Watch some actual game film (not highlights) of top prospects on websites like www.draftbreakdown.com and www.mainboard.com

 

 

The point is, there are a lot of regular football fans that know what they are talking about.

A lot of fans ON THIS BOARD were outraged when Buffalo took Donte Whitner instead of Haloti Ngata or Broderick Bunkley. A lot of fans ON THIS BOARD were dumfounded when Buffalo drafted Aaron Maybin instead of Brian Orakpo, Clay Matthews or Brian Cushing.

This was not hindsight. In all of these cases, the Bills would have been better off listening to a regular fan instead of their high-paid scouts.

 

Well I was going to respond in kind, but seeing as you just got owned by Kelly, I'll leave you to read what he wrote.

 

And btw, I do watch many many many college games, and still think what scouts and media do is hard work. And having lived in SoCal, no one thought Clay Matthews would have turned into the sack machine he did. Hence why he was selected late in the first. He was a walk on at USC and stuggled to make the team. Had 1 good year and that was that. I doubt you would have been able to predict what his NFL career would become.

Edited March 23, 2012 by Wayne Cubed

[prissythecat]

Let see... You have been here a year and ...

 

In your first post you said Spiller will never live up to being a top ten pick.

#2 you said Fitz will never be anything and Sanchez is a big game QB.

#3 post was a winner. The question was of the first five players drafted, who will be the best. Here is your answer.

 

 

Awesome. We all can't wait to see the rebuttal from mjt