1B4IDie Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 (edited) No prediction as to what will happen, but teams definitely should be concerned about his age. A 27/28 year old man in his physical prime playing against 19-22 year olds who are still developing is not a fair fight. He may still be a legit prospect (I've never seen him play, so I can't comment on that), but his production was definitely inflated by the fact that he was almost literally a man among boys. How inflated is probably pretty tough to tell, but combine that with the limited upside presented by his age, and he's a pretty risky pick in the first round. It's probably a tough sell to convince an owner to draft a QB in the first round who'll be 32 by the time his rookie deal expires. He may well turn out to be a good NFL player, but the risk is too high and the ceiling too low for me. I wouldn't touch him in a high round. Age is usually not much of a factor in the NFL draft, because most draftees are around the same age, and a year or two doesn't make a huge difference in terms of football ability. But it comes into play in the NBA draft all the time, because a year or two makes a significant difference there, and you have draftees ranging from 18 (Euros only, 19 for American draftees) to 22 or 23 (seniors). And the older players need to have MUCH better numbers than the younger players in order to justify the same draft position. Late bloomers are a lot more common in the NFL, but the same principle applies when you're talking about a guy in his late 20s vs. guys in their early 20s. I'm not saying age will effect his draft status. I am saying age is effecting his draft status. I clearly said he would be a Top5 pick if you through his age out. I am not saying that he is a top 5 pick in 2012. I am saying that a team that needs a QB today, like Washington Redskins pull the trigger, or trade back and pull the trigger later in the 1st (like they did last year) If the Redskins can't use their extra picks to get RGIII or Luck they may trade back get some extra picks and take Weeden. I am saying that his ceiling is very high, he looks plug and play ready for the NFL and if drafted by the team where he starts in 2012 he could be a great pick. I am going on record and saying that Weeden will be a 1st round pick, possibly a top 20 pick. I am going on record that I do not want the Buffalo Bills to draft Weeden we do not need a plug and play starter in 2012. Edited January 12, 2012 by Why So Serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 No prediction as to what will happen, but teams definitely should be concerned about his age. A 27/28 year old man in his physical prime playing against 19-22 year olds who are still developing is not a fair fight. He may still be a legit prospect (I've never seen him play, so I can't comment on that), but his production was definitely inflated by the fact that he was almost literally a man among boys. How inflated is probably pretty tough to tell, but combine that with the limited upside presented by his age, and he's a pretty risky pick in the first round. It's probably a tough sell to convince an owner to draft a QB in the first round who'll be 32 by the time his rookie deal expires. He may well turn out to be a good NFL player, but the risk is too high and the ceiling too low for me. I wouldn't touch him in a high round. Age is usually not much of a factor in the NFL draft, because most draftees are around the same age, and a year or two doesn't make a huge difference in terms of football ability. But it comes into play in the NBA draft all the time, because a year or two makes a significant difference there, and you have draftees ranging from 18 (Euros only, 19 for American draftees) to 22 or 23 (seniors). And the older players need to have MUCH better numbers than the younger players in order to justify the same draft position. Late bloomers are a lot more common in the NFL, but the same principle applies when you're talking about a guy in his late 20s vs. guys in their early 20s. I'm not saying age will effect his draft status. I am saying age is effecting his draft status. I clearly said he would be a Top5 pick if you through his age out. I am not saying that he is a top 5 pick in 2012. I am saying that a team that needs a QB today, like Washington Redskins pull the trigger, or trade back and pull the trigger later in the 1st (like they did last year) If the Redskins can't use their extra picks to get RGIII or Luck they may trade back get some extra picks and take Weeden. I am saying that his ceiling is very high, he looks plug and play ready for the NFL and if drafted by the team where he starts in 2012 he could be a great pick. I am going on record and saying that Weeden will be a 1st round pick, possibly a top 20 pick. I am going on record that I do not want the Buffalo Bills to draft Weeden we do not need a plug and play starter in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaenon Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I love the picks in that mock draft. At first I saw the second pick and was like "DT? WTF? No way." Then I read the guy's thought process and really liked that vision of the Bills defense. All he had to say is to be reminiscent of phat Pat Williams and you were hooked I'm guessing, lol. This pick would render Troup completely useless and a James Hardy-like bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cash Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm not saying age will effect his draft status. I am saying age is effecting his draft status. I clearly said he would be a Top5 pick if you through his age out. I am not saying that he is a top 5 pick in 2012. I am saying that a team that needs a QB today, like Washington Redskins pull the trigger, or trade back and pull the trigger later in the 1st (like they did last year) If the Redskins can't use their extra picks to get RGIII or Luck they may trade back get some extra picks and take Weeden. I am saying that his ceiling is very high, he looks plug and play ready for the NFL and if drafted by the team where he starts in 2012 he could be a great pick. I am going on record and saying that Weeden will be a 1st round pick, possibly a top 20 pick. I am going on record that I do not want the Buffalo Bills to draft Weeden we do not need a plug and play starter in 2012. It's cool, I was speaking more in the abstract -- not trying to call you out or anything. Again, I haven't even seen the dude play, so I have no prediction on when he'll be drafted or how he'll do in the NFL. You make a good point about the one positive of his advanced age -- a GM or coach looking for immediate impact is more likely to convince himself and/or his owner that a 28-year-old rookie will be more effective than a 23-year-old one. Personally, I don't know if that's actually true, because while the 28-year-old's physical skills give him an advantage over the youngster, I think experience/repetitions are a bigger factor in development, and if the old guy hasn't played much football, he might be at a disadvantage there. Again, speaking in the abstract, not specifically about Weeden. I don't know much about the guy, but now I'm pretty intrigued to see where he winds up going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T master Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I think seeing as the senior bowl is suppose to be the best of the seniors at the end of their college career this game should do a lot as far as giving us a bit more to go on as to who might be a good late round pick for us at QB .. I think even thought the sceptic's think the age thing is against Weeden him & Moore will be my 2 picks this years for us . If they turn out to do as well as my pick at QB last year A . Dalton i will be keeping an ear out for how they both do !!! So once again i can put down the talking heads at ESPN !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 As a point of reference, last year's QBs North Team: Colin Kaepernick, Jake Locker and Ricky Stanzi South Team: Andy Dalton, Greg McElroy, and Christian Ponder *The South Team was coached by the Bills Coaching Staff I haven't really started my draft "scouting yet" but does it seem like last year's QB crop was better? Last year's top 2 QBs: Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert This year's top 2 QBs: Andrew Luck and RG3 Others: Ryan Talleywhacker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 As a point of reference, last year's QBs North Team: Colin Kaepernick, Jake Locker and Ricky Stanzi South Team: Andy Dalton, Greg McElroy, and Christian Ponder *The South Team was coached by the Bills Coaching Staff I haven't really started my draft "scouting yet" but does it seem like last year's QB crop was better? Last year's top 2 QBs: Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert This year's top 2 QBs: Andrew Luck and RG3 Others: Ryan Talleywhacker Yes but we knew that last year, remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 Yes but we knew that last year, remember? We knew what last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 We knew what last year? WE KNEW that the 2011 crop of QBs was much better top to middle than the 2012 crop of QBs will be; after Luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSBill Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I like R Wilson then K Cousins in the later rounds. Ralph plays QB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Weeden is going top 20. and just like you said No Way Jeffrey slips to #20 let alone #40. Boise State’s Kellen Moore, - Doesn't belong in the NFL San Diego State’s Ryan Lindley, - Doesn't belong in the NFL Michigan State’s Kirk Cousins, - I like him in college a lot, Can be a backup development QB, and then . . . maybe Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson, - I like him in college a lot, Can be a backup development QB, and then . . . probably not Arizona’s Nick Foles - I like him in college a lot, Can be a backup development QB, and then . . . He has a real chance Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden. Will be a Top 20 pick and may even be starting for the Dolphins or Redskins in September 2012. For the past few months I've been thinking Nick Foles in round 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drinkTHEkoolaid Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Kellen Moore reminds me a lot of drew brees. I'm not a scout but watched a lot of Boise State. What are your thoughts on Moore? And yes I know he's not tall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 This year most of the NFL draft discussion surrounding quarterbacks has been about juniors who are declaring for the draft (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III) or juniors who are staying in school (Matt Barkley, Landry Jones). And when we’ve talked about a senior quarterback recently, it’s been to note that Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill is injured and out of the Senior Bowl. So who does that leave to play in the Senior Bowl? Via our friend Adam Caplan, the six Senior Bowl quarterbacks are in place: Boise State’s Kellen Moore, San Diego State’s Ryan Lindley, Michigan State’s Kirk Cousins, Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson, Arizona’s Nick Foles and Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/11/senior-bowl-quarterbacks-in-place/ 5 years ago that would have been a typical bunch of remote/no-chance guys but it is the age of the QB now. Of that group, Weeden and Foles are the best passers so they probably have the most potential. Wouldn't surprise me to see Foles move up the board a lot. I mean, if Christian Ponder can convince a team to take him in round one during the postseason the door is wide open for some of these guys. Lindley, Cousins and Wilson can all sling it pretty good. Lindley was a favorite of mine coming into the season but he lost his two star receivers from the year before and REALLY struggled. He went from a big play passer to hand it off and dink and dunk. The only one of these QB's that doesn't throw the ball at a passable NFL level is Moore. He is accurate but those balloons he tosses will require Pennington-esque accuracy and timing to be even slightly successful at the NFL level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 WE KNEW that the 2011 crop of QBs was much better top to middle than the 2012 crop of QBs will be; after Luck. You knew… I didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob16151 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 If Tyler Wilson comes out, this QB class gets a lot deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OklahomaBill Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I'm a huge Weeden fan but I don't see him going in the first. I agree though, if he was 5 years younger you are talking about a top 5 pick. There is not a throw the guy can't make. Absolute cannon for an arm. I think he has the best arm in the draft (not saying he is the best QB, just that he has the strongest arm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 As a point of reference, last year's QBs North Team: Colin Kaepernick, Jake Locker and Ricky Stanzi South Team: Andy Dalton, Greg McElroy, and Christian Ponder *The South Team was coached by the Bills Coaching Staff I haven't really started my draft "scouting yet" but does it seem like last year's QB crop was better? Last year's top 2 QBs: Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert This year's top 2 QBs: Andrew Luck and RG3 Others: Ryan Talleywhacker RG3 is far and away better than Gabbert. Guys like Ponder and Locker have been accepted as NFL QB's because they've taken snaps now, but they were not productive like Foles or Weeden. I am not buying that the quality of this class is wore than last just yet. The hype machine will get rolling on this years class in the next 4 weeks and I think that these guys may be seen as a better group. Perhaps with more big play potential due to a lot of guys with very good deep accuracy which is a great thing to have when you are a young QB. Buys you a lot of space on those shorter routes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 I am not buying that the quality of this class is wore than last just yet. The hype machine will get rolling on this years class in the next 4 weeks and I think that these guys may be seen as a better group. You exactly picked up on what I was implying, DD. It's still early on in the whole hype/"scouting" process with these guys. For instance, Gabbert seemed to come out of nowhere last year. I'll be interested to see how this year's crop stacks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 RG3 is far and away better than Gabbert. Guys like Ponder and Locker have been accepted as NFL QB's because they've taken snaps now, but they were not productive like Foles or Weeden. I am not buying that the quality of this class is wore than last just yet. The hype machine will get rolling on this years class in the next 4 weeks and I think that these guys may be seen as a better group. Perhaps with more big play potential due to a lot of guys with very good deep accuracy which is a great thing to have when you are a young QB. Buys you a lot of space on those shorter routes. Who needs the hype? The class is what the class is. And its no where near 2011'sclass of QBs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 Who needs the hype? The class is what the class is. And its no where near 2011's class of QBs Disagree, WSS. We'll see but IMO it's nowhere near definitive at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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