Juror#8 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 (edited) Hopefully this is unique enough to merit it's own post and amendments as games are played over the next two weeks. Mods, please feel free to consolidate with one of the 1500 other draft posts if you deem it appropriate. I know that there are a lot of draft threads right now. Just wanted to post something that, at least for the week, is current. Here is where things stand as of now: 1. .544 Colts 1 - 13 2. .564 St Louis 2 - 12 3. .587 Minnesota 2 - 12 4. .549 Tampa Bay 4 - 10 5. .495 Cleveland 4 - 10 6. .533 Jacksonville 4 - 10 7. .492 Redskins 5 - 9 8. .495 Miami 5 - 9 9. .500 Carolina 5 - 9 10. .500 Buffalo 5 - 9 Also, please check out the following link for end-of-the-season SOS projections (factoring in the final two games) care of 'ICanSleep' in post #11 below: http://www.gbnreport...draftorder.html Assuming a Buffalo 5-11 finish, the following permutations hold true: If Tampa or Jacksonville split the next two games (and end up 5-11), we jump ahead of them because of strength of schedule. 1. Jacksonville plays - @ Atlanta and @ Tennessee 2. Tampa plays - Dallas and @ Carolina If any of the following teams win a game, they will move below us in the draft order: 1. Redskins play - @ NY Giants and Minnesota 2. Miami plays - @ New England and NY Jets 3. Carolina plays - @ Houston and Tampa Bay Cleveland is a wild card. They could finish with a higher strength of schedule because they have yet to play Baltimore (10-4) and Pittsburgh (10-4). One win against either should push them over .500 (unfortunately though, SOS is a fluid situation). It's unlikely that either Baltimore or Pitt will be resting their starters because they're playing for the division. So a Cleveland win is unlikely. Best case scenario, Buffalo drafts 4th. More likely case, Buffalo drafts 5th - 7th. Worst case scenario (assuming Buffalo finishes 5-11), Buffalo drafts 10th. Edited December 21, 2011 by Juror#8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I for one am glad you posted this. I forwarded the info to my boss at DraftTek so we can update the simulator. Thanks! Astro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juror#8 Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 I for one am glad you posted this. I forwarded the info to my boss at DraftTek so we can update the simulator. Thanks! Astro No problem. Figured it may be fun to play with the different scenarios now that we know who stands where, and what games are most meaningful. Your 'Drafttek' site is awesome by the way. First chance I had to check it out. Good source of info. Added it to my favorites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Thanks for the post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 If we draft in the 4-5 range I want a QB If we draft in the 10 range then the corner Dre Kilpatrick please And I want at least 3 rush linebackers in this draft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picnic Table F'er Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Best case scenario, Buffalo drafts 4th. finishes 7-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Bills Fan Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Astrobot: You dont have the Bills drafting an OL in the 2012 draft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juror#8 Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 (edited) .....best case scenario is 7-9 Actually, best case scenario, based on the math, is Bills drafting 4th overall. Not saying that it will happen, but the possibility is not precluded by the math. And since they are only one game removed from that possibility currently (with two games remaining), there is a little better than an outside chance that it can happen. Edited December 20, 2011 by Juror#8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gumby Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Actually, best case scenario, based on the math, is Bills drafting 4th overall. Not saying that it will happen, but the possibility is not precluded by the math. And since they are only one game removed from that possibility currently (with two games remaining), there is a little better than an outside chance that it can happen. I think he's saying the best scenario is to finish with 7 wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CowgirlsFan Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Good info! I saw this on the ESPN scroll today but it went by too fast to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 (edited) I find the link below useful in tracking our draft position: http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html If I recall correctly, it shows strength of schedule based on our opponents for the entire season, not just for the games we have already played. That's helpful, because it means there will not be huge changes in the listed strength of schedule in the last week or two. For example, if a site lists strength of schedule only for games already played, our strength of schedule would get a big increase after playing the Patriots in the last game of the season (making it harder to predict in advance how ties are likely to be broken between teams that finish with the same W/L record). I think that's why my link shows a higher strength of schedule number for the Bills than what you posted - - it already factors in that our remaining opponents have winning records. The link gets updated after the Monday night game each week. Edited December 21, 2011 by ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truth on hold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I'm rooting for the 4 teams that can fall behind us in the draft who I see as most likely to draft QB: Tampa, Cleveland, Redskins, Miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Thanks for that info! Suck for RGIII!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truth on hold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Thanks for that info! Suck for RGIII!! League should have a lottery for the bottom feeders but they don't. Makes it very clear "just lose baby" should be the motto when you're out of playoff contention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hater Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 St Louis, Minnesota, Tampa Bay are three team we could trade up if we wanted to draft Robert Griffin, personally I would give up this years one & next years one to trade up for Griffin its worth the risk but even if he fell in are lap the Bills probably wouldn't draft him we probably take a RB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sllib olaffub Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 (edited) I fully understand those who say, "The best case scenario is for Buffalo to win out", but, I disagree, and here is my reasoning: The Bills just never lose bad enough to really get the QB they need to be competitive. I mean, the Polian duo should be given a horseshoe award for having Manning keep them in the playoffs perennially for the last decade, and then this, and they'll have Luck for the next decade plus. That is the way it should happen... Let's say we miss out on the top of the QB class and go CB, OLB, OLB with our first three picks, or some combination of Defense - the fact that the QB's are snagged - potentially 4 in the first 10 picks! - that sends some other talent down the board, and we draft wise enough to finally put together a solid defense that is young enough to mature together for the next 5 years or so. Good defenses, with an offensive minded coach like Gailey, could keep us hovering around .500 for the rest of that half decade, and we know what 8-8 does when it comes to trying to draft a QB. So, as much as I want the Bills to be winners, I feel they have to manage to get a true, franchise QB, to really be SuperBowl bound, and we're at the point where another heavy defensive draft, with the right picks, a change in D-Coordinators, and a couple key F.A.'s, and all of a sudden we might have a good defense for a run. As I was saying - I don't want to see us close, but falling short for the next 5 years - the one player that can single handedly carry a team into a Championship is a great QB. It's no fluke we haven't seen anything like a whiff of hope around here since Kelly - and the one Flutie year. Find us a QB this year, please! I'm hoping for pick 5-7 range; that should be enough to land one of the top 3. Edited December 21, 2011 by sllib olaffub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjmac Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If Gailey is really the offensive genius he is made out to be, he will see that we do not have the QB or the WRs to run a pass-happy offense and go ball control. Then we don't need to worry about one of the top-flight QBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juror#8 Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 I fully understand those who say, "The best case scenario is for Buffalo to win out", but, I disagree, and here is my reasoning: The Bills just never lose bad enough to really get the QB they need to be competitive. I mean, the Polian duo should be given a horseshoe award for having Manning keep them in the playoffs perennially for the last decade, and then this, and they'll have Luck for the next decade plus. That is the way it should happen... Let's say we miss out on the top of the QB class and go CB, OLB, OLB with our first three picks, or some combination of Defense - the fact that the QB's are snagged - potentially 4 in the first 10 picks! - that sends some other talent down the board, and we draft wise enough to finally put together a solid defense that is young enough to mature together for the next 5 years or so. Good defenses, with an offensive minded coach like Gailey, could keep us hovering around .500 for the rest of that half decade, and we know what 8-8 does when it comes to trying to draft a QB. So, as much as I want the Bills to be winners, I feel they have to manage to get a true, franchise QB, to really be SuperBowl bound, and we're at the point where another heavy defensive draft, with the right picks, a change in D-Coordinators, and a couple key F.A.'s, and all of a sudden we might have a good defense for a run. As I was saying - I don't want to see us close, but falling short for the next 5 years - the one player that can single handedly carry a team into a Championship is a great QB. It's no fluke we haven't seen anything like a whiff of hope around here since Kelly - and the one Flutie year. Find us a QB this year, please! I'm hoping for pick 5-7 range; that should be enough to land one of the top 3. +1 It gets so irritating having the discussion year in and year out about how the GM missed the player that they really coveted because the team who picked them picked one or two ahead of us (Patrick Willis, Ben Roethlisberger, etc.). Top 5-7 should get us RGIII or Barkley. This slump will never end until we get a transformational QB and build a solid line around them. Robert Griffin has the skill set to operate with the work-in-progress line we have now. It will be nice, in subsequent drafts, to think "Wow, we have our QB; let's now stregthen his supporting cast." It's been almost 20 years since we've been able to comfortably think that without reservations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juror#8 Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 I find the link below useful in tracking our draft position: http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html If I recall correctly, it shows strength of schedule based on our opponents for the entire season, not just for the games we have already played. That's helpful, because it means there will not be huge changes in the listed strength of schedule in the last week or two. For example, if a site lists strength of schedule only for games already played, our strength of schedule would get a big increase after playing the Patriots in the last game of the season (making it harder to predict in advance how ties are likely to be broken between teams that finish with the same W/L record). I think that's why my link shows a higher strength of schedule number for the Bills than what you posted - - it already factors in that our remaining opponents have winning records. The link gets updated after the Monday night game each week. Thanks for the site reference. Didn't know that that information was out there. I amended my original post to include your link (if you don't mind). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills-fan in arizona Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Great post thanks. I am hoping the colts win out Of the #1 spot and we throw everything at St. Louis for Luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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