JuanGuzman Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 (edited) I realize that all of us would prefer the rational solution where the Bill's negotiate a contract that gives Fred Jackson some long-term financial security but doesn't force the organization to mortgage the future by tying them down to a bad contract. e.g, a four year deal w/ $15-20 Million guaranteed. But sometimes I think its useful to limit the discussion to the potential extreme outcomes. The way I see it -- each situation has a clear upside and downside. I left out some positives/negatives but feel free to include them in your answer. Situation 1 - The long-term mega contract: Upside: You lock up the most complete RB in football right now. Downside: Significant financial commitment to a RB on the wrong side of 30. Situation 2: - Make him play under the current agreement Upside: By Making him pay under a base salary of $1.75 Million. Theoretically you would have more money available to re-sign the Bills young core and bring in free agents. Also it limits your financial risk from a bad contract. Downside: A messy protracted holdout which results in either limited to below average production by Fred or you have to trade him for twenty cents on the dollar. Edited October 31, 2011 by JuanGuzman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 or option 3, a "3 year" 25 million contract with about 15 mil guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Caveman Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Why would you franchise him next year when he's already under contract? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuanGuzman Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 Why would you franchise him next year when he's already under contract? Ahhh because I am an idiot. I changed the pole to reflect the accurate contract details. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Caveman Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I voted for B, but my preferred option would be that Fred realizes the leverage they have on him and signs a reasonable contract for the next 4-5 years. Maybe 10 Million per year for the next 5 years, but with not much guaranteed. I understand this is not realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdBlueNorth Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 (edited) or option 3, a "3 year" 25 million contract with about 15 mil guaranteed. This is more my position - lock him up with a 3-5 year extension paying him what he deserves, but don't sell the farm for someone who will be 30+. I do like Fred and would like to see him play for another 8 years but after 30 it is really a crap shoot with running backs. Fred is an interesting case though, guys rarely get a good clean hit on him. He has a knack for sliding off to the left or the right of tacklers rarely if ever getting knocked back. That knack could extend his pro career in the same way that Marcus Allen's style of running did; who he kind of reminds me of - and yes, dating myself again. Edited November 1, 2011 by ColdBlueNorth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 This is more my position - lock him up with a 3-5 year extension paying him what he deserves, but don't sell the farm for someone who will be 30+. I do like Fred and would like to see him play for another 8 years but after 30 it is really a crap shoot with running backs. Fred is an interesting case though, guys rarely get a good clean hit on him. He has a knack for sliding off to the left or the right of tacklers rarely if ever getting knocked back. That knack could extend his pro career in the same way that Marcus Allen's style of running did; who he kind of reminds me of - and yes, dating myself again. Actually now that you mention it . . . That smooth gliding type of runner that always finds away to glance of a defender and fall forward when wrapped up. Great out of the backfield in a receiving Capacity. I can see the similarities and similarities in the running style. That's a a better simile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I was in the "pay him" camp. Now, after the past several games...stiff him. Last thing I want to see is a Fred Jackson that stops running pissed as all !@#$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdBlueNorth Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Actually now that you mention it . . . That smooth gliding type of runner that always finds away to glance of a defender and fall forward when wrapped up. Great out of the backfield in a receiving Capacity. I can see the similarities and similarities in the running style. That's a a better simile. Yeah, the running style reminds me of him as well as how folks would always comment on how he would fall forward when tackled. Maybe I am just being hopeful, but I remember how Allen left the Raiders after a great career and still had gas in the tank to be effective for KC for several years. Hopefully Fred has that same future and is paid to spend it with the Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I was in the "pay him" camp. Now, after the past several games...stiff him. Last thing I want to see is a Fred Jackson that stops running pissed as all !@#$. Whoa, whoa, Fred Jackson mentioned his contract one time. For some unknown and odd reasons a subsection of fans is far more concerned than he is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#34fan Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I was in the "pay him" camp. Now, after the past several games...stiff him. Last thing I want to see is a Fred Jackson that stops running pissed as all !@#$. I actually think he's entitled to a portion of Fitz's Guaranteed money. Our offense would be NOTHING, I repeat, NOTHING without Freddy thus far. He absolutely has to break those long runs to make up for Fitz's FIFTEEN step drops, and ten yard passes which only net two yard gains. Ridiculous. Lindell doesn't even make it into field goal range without Freddy's hard running. Pay the man? Seriously? -How about kiss the man's feet, and hope he graces us with his presence for at least one more season. I'd take Fred ANY DAY over Fitz's 59 million dollar arm, and $200,000 over-hyped education. I actually hope Fred is traded to the Pats next year for some overrated rookie. Then MAYBE you people would understand what he means to this team. I say "maybe" because a few of you hardcore beard-worshippers, probably still wouldn't get it. Too bad. Fred jackson is simply the best player on our football team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AxelRipper Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I don't think he's the kind of player who will get all pissy and hold out (a-la CJ-NoK). He just wants to play football. I don't think he should be paid anywhere near "top RB" money" but then again I don't think anyone should be paid that much money. That being said, barring injury I think they'll work something out either this offseason or next. I have no idea why everyone is throwing such a fit about him not having a new contract when theres still another season on his current one. If they sign him to a 3-5 year $25mil guaranteed contract now and he goes down by the end of the year, then what? Pay him when the time comes. He just wants to play ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cvanvol Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 he will get top ten rb money i expect something around 7 mil a season for 3-4 years with a bunch of incentives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drinkTHEkoolaid Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Would offer a 5 year deal that would pay him top 5 money for next 2 years than substantially reduce that over the final 3 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Unfortunately for Fred, I think he might get the raw end of the deal. They just reworked his contract not long ago. He's got 1.5 years left, so the FO can sit and watch. He's in a tough situation. He'll be on the wrong side of 30 when his current deal expires, and even if he maintains production who is going to give a big contract to a 32 year old running back? I think the FO will wait and see how he's playing next year. If he's still killing it, I'm guessing best case scenario he signs a 3 year, extremely front loaded extension around mid season. Unfortunately for Fred, I think he will be victim of his circumstances and the big payday will not come in Buffalo. If I were in Nix's position, I'd probably just give FJ a big production bonus at the end of this season and tack on an incentive escalator for the last year of his contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalftimeAdjustment Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Structure a contract where the guarantees kick in at the beginning of 2012. Like this (for example): 2011: $1.5M signing bonus plus current salary. 2012: Roster bonus of $5M. If the roster bonus is paid, the 2013-2014 guarantees also kick in. 2012 salary of $3.5M, total $8.5M. 2013: Guaranteed $3.5M, total salary $7.5M 2014: Guaranteed $1.5M, total salary $6.5M 2015: $5M option year. 4 yr extension, ~$27M in new money ... but guarantees kick in only in 2012 with a total guarantee of $11.5M - and realistically he will probably not be picked up for the last $5M so it is $24M in new money. I think Fred cannot do much better than this with his contract situation and age and I am not sure the Bills will go this far. However, it will give him $1.5M in money this year, in case of devastating 2011 injury, while protecting the Bills for this year only. Given his performance it is very likely the Bills elect to keep him in 2012. This triggers a total of $10M in additional guaranteed money, plus if he plays 1 game $3.5M salary becomes guaranteed (by CBA) so $13.5M for playing game 1 of 2012 (payable over time). Everything beyond that is gravy. If he hits the age wall or is injured prematurely, here are the scenarios (based on approx $2M salary in 2012 current contract): Last year w/ Bills 2011: $1.5M in new money Last year w/ Bills 2012: $13M in new money Last year w/ Bills 2013: $17M in new money Last year w/ Bills 2014: $22M in new money Last year w/ Bills 2015: $27M in new money Of course these figures could be adjusted either way depending on your preference, but I think this is the kind of structure that would give the Bills some benefit while also substantially raising Fred's salary when he is most valuable (now and 2012). He cannot get a contract that is equal to his free market value if he were an URFA this year, this is close and will send a positive message to the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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