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Some thoughts re preseason and cuts


jahnyc

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1. McKelvin has not developed into a quality corner. He was targeted during the preseason, and seemed to get beat a number of times. If the rush defense improves in the regular season, it will put more pressure on our secondary (more pass plays) and any shortcomings will be magnified and exposed.

 

2. I am excited to see Merriman, Barnett, Williams and Dareus play together.

 

3. I hope it is not the case, but I am expecting that McGee will get cut tomorrow. Williams may have potential, but he is raw. Corner's play has been disappointing and I am not sure he would make another team's roster. The Bills are creating another hole if they release McGee, and potentially hurting team morale (again). If they thought that McGee could not perform at a high level, why didn't they try to sign another free agent corner?

 

4. I understand releasing older players if there are younger players ready to step in and contribute at a high level. Unfortunately, the Bills cut players without adequate replacements, creating holes and depth problems. Hoping that a young player will develop if you start him is not a strategy for success.

 

5. I am also expecting Hangartner to be cut. I think he would be a decent, experienced back-up at center and guard for a very thin and inexperienced offensive line.

 

6. Our 2010 draft picks really need to step up. At this point, I have no idea whether Spiller, Troupe and Carrington will develop into quality players.

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I have to believe that our defense will only get better as the year goes on. They are in their second season of this system - but how much of it has been modified with the addition of Wannstedt? Also, the offseason is typically the time of year these players get to learn a lot, whereas during the season it is more resting and game-planning. That being said, we have a team that is only really little more than one year into a new system.

 

As for Carrington, Troupe, Spiller, Coleman, Moats, Batten, Jones, Nelson, Roosevelt - those 2010 guys are looking pretty good! I mean, I expect Carrington to outperform Kelsay (I already think he is the dominant player), and he presents a very unique skill set for a man his size. He is exciting - and will be very big in our d-line as more or less a 4-3 DE who plays standing up a lot. Our secondary - it will get tested, and we will see what we have. I think McKelvin is the type of player who will sometimes get burned and sometimes turn in a great play, so if one of the other cornerbacks ends up showing enough talent to be out there, I'd expect the tandem to be, if healthy, Florence, McGee, and Williams, with Byrd and Wilson as safeties. There is some real play-making ability there, if we can get enough consistent pressure on the QB.

 

All in all, I'd say our offense has the most to prove, and the weight will rest on the O-line. When Nix talks about being patient, I guess he is serious. I mean, he doesn't mind throwing a season away because he'd rather wait a year to draft O-linemen than to find alternate ways of getting them. Of course, he might end up finding some additions yet, but when I look at this team, I think we're a few O-linemen and a QB away from being a legitimate contender. But, the fun thing about this team is that they've shown, last year, that they can hang with anyone except the Pats, and they're definitely better this year... so, I think we're going to end up with less than ten wins and more than six.

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4. I understand releasing older players if there are younger players ready to step in and contribute at a high level. Unfortunately, the Bills cut players without adequate replacements, creating holes and depth problems. Hoping that a young player will develop if you start him is not a strategy for success.

 

Going back a few years, the Bills have typically failed when trying to replace veterans. They allowed UFA's to walk and subsequently replaced them with rookies. At least this season they replaced Posluszny with what appears to be quality ILB's in Barnett and perhaps Morrison.

 

For the most part though, they've used the draft to replace rather than build, especially since 2006. Draft Whitner to replace Milloy. Draft Lynch to replace McGahee. Draft Posluszny to replace Fletcher. Draft McKelvin to replace Clements. And when they drafted high to rebuild their team, it resulted in busts like McCargo and Maybin.

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I have to believe that our defense will only get better as the year goes on. They are in their second season of this system - but how much of it has been modified with the addition of Wannstedt? Also, the offseason is typically the time of year these players get to learn a lot, whereas during the season it is more resting and game-planning. That being said, we have a team that is only really little more than one year into a new system.

 

As for Carrington, Troupe, Spiller, Coleman, Moats, Batten, Jones, Nelson, Roosevelt - those 2010 guys are looking pretty good! I mean, I expect Carrington to outperform Kelsay (I already think he is the dominant player), and he presents a very unique skill set for a man his size. He is exciting - and will be very big in our d-line as more or less a 4-3 DE who plays standing up a lot. Our secondary - it will get tested, and we will see what we have. I think McKelvin is the type of player who will sometimes get burned and sometimes turn in a great play, so if one of the other cornerbacks ends up showing enough talent to be out there, I'd expect the tandem to be, if healthy, Florence, McGee, and Williams, with Byrd and Wilson as safeties. There is some real play-making ability there, if we can get enough consistent pressure on the QB.

 

All in all, I'd say our offense has the most to prove, and the weight will rest on the O-line. When Nix talks about being patient, I guess he is serious. I mean, he doesn't mind throwing a season away because he'd rather wait a year to draft O-linemen than to find alternate ways of getting them. Of course, he might end up finding some additions yet, but when I look at this team, I think we're a few O-linemen and a QB away from being a legitimate contender. But, the fun thing about this team is that they've shown, last year, that they can hang with anyone except the Pats, and they're definitely better this year... so, I think we're going to end up with less than ten wins and more than six.

They played the pats tough one game, they didn't even show up vs the jets. Sure, our run d will be much improved, but the jets WAXED us last year. WAXED is putting it lightly.

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If the starters on defense can stay healthy (particularly Merriman, Williams and Dareus), our defense should improve from last year.

 

Great point about replacing veteran players who are cut or leave for free agency with draft picks instead of using draft picks to build. This has resulted in uneven results and little or no depth.

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3. I hope it is not the case, but I am expecting that McGee will get cut tomorrow.

 

5. I am also expecting Hangartner to be cut. I think he would be a decent, experienced back-up at center and guard for a very thin and inexperienced offensive line.

 

6. Our 2010 draft picks really need to step up. At this point, I have no idea whether Spiller, Troupe and Carrington will develop into quality players.

 

 

I expect Kelsay to get cut before either McGee or the Hangman .... I know the contract extension and all ... but that was then, this is now ... IMHO Carrington steps in quite nicely into the Kelsay roll.

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Going back a few years, the Bills have typically failed when trying to replace veterans. They allowed UFA's to walk and subsequently replaced them with rookies. At least this season they replaced Posluszny with what appears to be quality ILB's in Barnett and perhaps Morrison.

For the most part though, they've used the draft to replace rather than build, especially since 2006. Draft Whitner to replace Milloy. Draft Lynch to replace McGahee. Draft Posluszny to replace Fletcher. Draft McKelvin to replace Clements. And when they drafted high to rebuild their team, it resulted in busts like McCargo and Maybin.

They kinda did the same thing this year with Poz and Whitner, and perhaps McKelvin or McGee, just drafting to replace players you are losing or going to release doesn't really build anything.

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