Nix/Gailey, the Big 10, and the Pac 10

[dave mcbride]

Now that Maybin has finally been cut, it's becoming abundantly clear that the brains running the Bills have it in for the Big 10 and Pac 10 (save for one school - more on that later). Since Nix and Gailey took over, they have dumped the following high profile (relatively speaking) Bills players:

 

Lynch (Pac 10)

Edwards (Pac 10)

Whitner (Big 10)

Evans (Big 10)

Poz (Big 10)

Maybin (Big 10)

 

In their place, they have substituted a vast sea of players from the SEC, the ACC, other southern schools, and no-name northeastern schools. The only remaining significant Pac 10 player not from Oregon State left (excluding kickers) is Byrd (Oregon); the only significant Big 10 player is Bryan Scott (and who knows whether he makes it through camp). I'm not convinced that Urbik (Wisconsin) will make it through camp; we'll see.

 

The significant players on defense this year are as follows:

 

secondary:

 

G. Wilson - SEC (Arkansas)

Searcy - ACC (UNC)

McKelvin - deep south school (Troy)

McGee - deep south school (NE Louisiana)

Florence - deep south school (Tuskegee)

Aaron Williams - Big 12/the south (Texas)

Corner - no name NE school (Akron)

Bryan Scott (Big 10)

 

LBs:

 

Nick Barnett - Pac 10 (Oregon State)

Andra Davis -SEC (Florida)

Merriman - ACC (Maryland)

Moats - small southern school (James Madison)

Torbor - SEC (Auburn)

Sheppard - SEC (LSU)

Chris White - SEC (Miss. St.)

 

D-Line:

 

Kyle Williams - SEC

Dareus - SEC

Troup - deep south school (UCF)

Kelsay - Big 12 (Nebraska)

Spencer Johnson - SEC (Auburn)

Carrington - deep south school (Arkansas State)

Dwan Edwards - Pac 10 (Oregon State)

 

OFFENSE:

 

QBs:

 

Fitz - weak NE school (Harvard)

Brad Smith - Big 12 (Missouri)

Thigpen - deep south school (Coastal Carolina)

Levi Brown - deep south school (Troy)

 

RBs:

F. Jackson - no name northern school (Coe)

Spiller - ACC/deep south school (Clemson)

Johnny White - ACC/southern school (UNC)

 

WRs:

 

Steve Johnson - SEC (Kentucky)

Parrish - ACC (Miami)

Donald Jones - no name NE school (Youngstown state)

Marcus Easley - borderline no name NE school (UConn)

Buster Davis - SEC (LSU)

N. Roosevelt - no name NE school (UB)

 

O-Line:

 

Levitre - Oregon State

Wood - border state school in state that leans southern (Louisville)

Bell - deep south school (Northwestern State; it's in Louisiana)

Wang - ACC/southern school (Va Tech)

Wrotto - ACC/southern school (Georgia Tech)

Urbik - a lone big 10 player (Wisconsin)

Chris Hairston - ACC/southern school (Clemson)

Hangartner - southern school/Big 12 (Texas A & M)

Cordaro Howard - ACC/southern school (Georgia Tech)

 

As for Oregon State: the coach at Oregon State is none other than Mike Reilly, who was the head coach of San Diego during Nix's first year there (2001). Reilly didn't last longer than the 2001 season, but by the accounts I read he got along well with the brass. It was his third year there, and it just didn't work out. Most telling is that Butler/Smith/Nix didn't bring in a new guy right away, which would have been easy to do. They claimed that they liked Reilly. Presumably, Nix and Reilly still get along and have a decent professional relationship. Looking at the surfeit of Beavers on the roster, it would make sense.

 

Anyway, their personnel biases seems pretty obvious to me: opt for southern players and avoid both the Big 10 and Pac 10.

Edited August 15, 2011 by dave mcbride

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Anyway, their personnel biases seems pretty obvious to me: opt for southern players and avoid both the Big 10 and Pac 10.

 

I actually wonder if this is lazy.

 

Nix and Gailey know the South, so they draft guys from the South. They coached the North-South game, so they draft a bunch of players from that game. They know San Diego, so they pick up free agents from San Diego.

 

I question whether this approach is going to be successful in the long run.

[dave mcbride]

I actually wonder if this is lazy.

 

Nix and Gailey know the South, so they draft guys from the South. They coached the North-South game, so they draft a bunch of players from that game. They know San Diego, so they pick up free agents from San Diego.

 

I question whether this approach is going to be successful in the long run.

Those were my thoughts, to be honest. That said, the south produces a lot of great football players. The Oregon State thing does give me pause, however.

 

Also, excellent point about the Senior Bowl.

Edited August 15, 2011 by dave mcbride

[FightinIrishBills]

I actually wonder if this is lazy.

 

Nix and Gailey know the South, so they draft guys from the South. They coached the North-South game, so they draft a bunch of players from that game. They know San Diego, so they pick up free agents from San Diego.

 

I question whether this approach is going to be successful in the long run.

 

Well considering the SEC has been the strongest conference in the country for the majority of the past decade, I don't feel remotely bad having them pick up players from the South.

[Dorkington]

I actually wonder if this is lazy.

 

Nix and Gailey know the South, so they draft guys from the South. They coached the North-South game, so they draft a bunch of players from that game. They know San Diego, so they pick up free agents from San Diego.

 

I question whether this approach is going to be successful in the long run.

I wouldn't call that lazy, I'd call that bringing in guys you're familiar with.

[cantankerous]

So ignore the big 10 and pac 10? That sounds pretty ridiculous to me.

 

Dwan Edwards, Nick Barnett, Andy Levitre, Jairus Byrd...all from the pac 10 (And Oregon schools I might add). All quality starters as well.

 

The coach at Oregon State is Mike Riley, Rick Reilly is a sportswriter.

 

 

[dave mcbride]

I wouldn't call that lazy, I'd call that bringing in guys you're familiar with.

Good 'ol boy networks can be good or bad. It's great that they have extensive networks, especially in the south. But it is a mindset that lends itself to bias and mental shortcuts (which can be interpreted as laziness). I'm going to withhold judgment. In any event, they clearly have biases. Hopefully, they're the right ones.

 

So ignore the big 10 and pac 10? That sounds pretty ridiculous to me.

 

Dwan Edwards, Nick Barnett, Andy Levitre, Jairus Byrd...all from the pac 10 (And Oregon schools I might add). All quality starters as well.

 

The coach at Oregon State is Mike Riley, Rick Reilly is a sportswriter.

Did you read my post about OSU? And I apologize profusely for screwing up one first name in a post that actually took some effort. Also, I think the evidence is pretty damn obvious. They didn't draft Byrd either.

 

This year, their entire draft -- 9 players!! - came from the south: http://billsdaily.com/draft/ .

Edited August 15, 2011 by dave mcbride

[Mike in Syracuse]

Our QB is from the Northeast!

[dave mcbride]

Our QB is from the Northeast!

Did you read my post?

[cantankerous]

I think the evidence is pretty damn obvious. They didn't draft Byrd either.

 

This year, their entire draft -- 9 players!! - came from the south: http://billsdaily.com/draft/ .

 

Or it could be coincidence that they didn't pick anyone from those conferences. I wasn't trying to shat on your post, and I did react quicker than I should have.

 

I don't think Nix/Gailey are purposely avoiding those conferences though.

[OCinBuffalo]

I actually wonder if this is lazy.

 

Nix and Gailey know the South, so they draft guys from the South. They coached the North-South game, so they draft a bunch of players from that game. They know San Diego, so they pick up free agents from San Diego.

 

I question whether this approach is going to be successful in the long run.

 

Lazy can sometimes be confused with smart and/or knowing your limitations.

 

In this case, only drafting what you know means no busts, like Maybin. Yes, you may miss out on a few good players...but you won't waste high picks on bad ones.

[Joe Miner]

So even with the worst record in the NFL...no Luck in 2012?

 

You could get tarred and feathered for that kind of talk around here.

[dave mcbride]

Or it could be coincidence that they didn't pick anyone from those conferences. I wasn't trying to shat on your post, and I did react quicker than I should have.

 

I don't think Nix/Gailey are purposely avoiding those conferences though.

No worries. That said, the entire 2011 draft was from the south, and the first three players from the 2010 draft were from there as well (as well as five of the first six).

[yungmack]

The case could be made that for about eight years of the first decade of this century, the most consistent top team was USC. While any number of other teams rose and fell during that time (and beat them out for top dog more often than not), they were always early-season picks for numbers 1-3 and usually finished somewhere in the top five range. Additionally, they played a very NFL friendly style. During that time SC sent a large number of players to the NFL. Now, for whatever reason, the Bills never once drafted a single one of their top players during that time. This reached the apogee of absurdity when the Brain Trust passed on Matthews and Cushing in favor of Maybin. I have no idea why this was so but it seemed at the time to be very odd.

 

The reason Nixley seems to favor the south and the SEC in particular probably has to do with familiarity, an important factor when reloading on the run (the same reason Nix signs so many former Chargers, I'd guess). It also probably has more than a little to do with the SEC being the most dominant collegiate conference.

 

So, you had one regime ignoring one of the best NFL factories and a new one turning to another excellent NFL factory. We'll see how it turns out, but if I had to bet serious money on which one is more likely to be successful, my vast fortune would be on Nixley.

 

As an aside, there are a ton of Pac-10 players in the NFL, just not on the Bills. It may not be the SEC but it's still pretty darned good football. It may have escaped notice by some but Nix has significantly enlarged - and I believe, improved - the scouting department, with an increased focus on the West Coast department. So look for that to have an impact in coming years on the Bills roster.

 

All in all, I'd say this is an organization pointed in the right direction and making the right decisions far, far more than not.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Those were my thoughts, to be honest. That said, the south produces a lot of great football players. The Oregon State thing does give me pause, however.

 

Also, excellent point about the Senior Bowl.

 

Agreed. Maybe they know the South has been solid, so they feel like focusing there is a good thing or at least a low-risk thing. And maybe they have a scout with some Oregon connection, who holds a lot of sway.

 

I think there's some connection with UNC (Butch Davis knows Gailey or Nix, i think), which also explains why we've pulled some guys from UNC lately.

 

I like your analysis, and am still troubled that we wouldn't have a more diverse pull. It's not like the Big Ten is a weak football conference, especially when it comes to o-linemen--a real position of weakness for us.

 

Edit: Just re-read your post, and saw the Reilly comment. This explains the OSU connection for sure.

Edited August 15, 2011 by JR In Ann Arbor

[dave mcbride]

The case could be made that for about eight years of the first decade of this century, the most consistent top team was USC. While any number of other teams rose and fell during that time (and beat them out for top dog more often than not), they were always early-season picks for numbers 1-3 and usually finished somewhere in the top five range. Additionally, they played a very NFL friendly style. During that time SC sent a large number of players to the NFL. Now, for whatever reason, the Bills never once drafted a single one of their top players during that time. This reached the apogee of absurdity when the Brain Trust passed on Matthews and Cushing in favor of Maybin. I have no idea why this was so but it seemed at the time to be very odd.

 

The reason Nixley seems to favor the south and the SEC in particular probably has to do with familiarity, an important factor when reloading on the run (the same reason Nix signs so many former Chargers, I'd guess). It also probably has more than a little to do with the SEC being the most dominant collegiate conference.

 

So, you had one regime ignoring one of the best NFL factories and a new one turning to another excellent NFL factory. We'll see how it turns out, but if I had to bet serious money on which one is more likely to be successful, my vast fortune would be on Nixley.

 

As an aside, there are a ton of Pac-10 players in the NFL, just not on the Bills. It may not be the SEC but it's still pretty darned good football. It may have escaped notice by some but Nix has significantly enlarged - and I believe, improved - the scouting department, with an increased focus on the West Coast department. So look for that to have an impact in coming years on the Bills roster.

 

All in all, I'd say this is an organization pointed in the right direction and making the right decisions far, far more than not.

Good post. I do know that they've revamped the scouting department, and probably for the better.

[Billshank Redemption]

troy is in new york....

[Malazan]

Lynch (Pac 10)

Edwards (Pac 10)

Whitner (Big 10)

Evans (Big 10)

Poz (Big 10)

Maybin (Big 10)

 

Look at that list of players. Only Evans was never on the TBD dream team of being voted off the island. I wouldn't keep picking players from there either.

[dave mcbride]

troy is in new york....

No, Troy is in Alabama.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troy_University

Edited August 15, 2011 by dave mcbride

[Billshank Redemption]

my bad all this time i just thought mckelvin was a stupid new yorker now it all makes more sense