K Gun Special Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 your anti-Fitz rhetoric is the only thing that is growing. I didn't say the above statement that you quoted, that was someone else...but to now say that Bradford had a better year than Fitz is simply incorrect. There's absolutely no argument: Fitz had 5 more TD's in 2 fewer games; had a higher QB rating; and Fitz YPA was 6.80 compared to Bradford at 5.95. This isn't to diminish Bradford - I like him. But to say that Bradford had "arguably" a better season than Fitz? Based on what? And don't tell me, oh but he was a rookie..I don't care if he was a rookie..he still didn't have a better season. End of story. You dismiss the statement from the other poster that Fitz will be better than Cam two years from now as if the other poster is delusional or something. I'd argue that the only delusion on these boards is to believe it's a guarantee that Cam will put up 25+td's 3,000+ yds, and a +80 rating in the nfl within the next two years...b/c that's what Fitz did this year. Good luck w/ that pipe dream. Fitz also threw the same amount of picks and played less. Fitz's TDs are a great stat, he tied with david Garrard!!! but its the only one that isnt mediocre really. He's 27 out of 30 in comp %, threw the same amount of picks as a rookie and INT machine Cutler, Cute. I'm not anti-fitz. You agreed with the poster that Fitz will be better in two years than anyone we may draft this year. And its not all about numbers. Would you say Fitz had a better year than Sanchez? Fitz won four friggin games. Bradford btw won 6. as a rookie on a bad team with a bad defense. Fitz is fine until we find a long term solution. Im not sold that solution is in this draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BiggieScooby Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 (edited) K Gun Special: Fitz was 4 and 9 as a starter. The 2 other guys went 0 and 3. Fitz gives us a better chance. You seem to forget around mid-season we were the joke of the NFL. Some "analysts" had us going 0-16 and giving the '08 Lions a run for their money in the futility dept. I say take Fitz away from our team and insert Brohm, Edwards and we would have gone 0-16. Fitz was a god-send. Had it not been for a dropped pass Fitz goes 5-8 as a starter & beats the AFC champion. Let's not forget Bradford and his Rams have loaded up on top 5 draft picks the past 5 years. While we have been drafting a few slots lower and usually missing. Analyze the Rams drafts & the quality of their defense compared to ours and see the difference. Not to mention Bradford plays in a dome in the weak NFC West. This is no slight to Bradford I know this kid will be a great pro, but comeon with the Fitz bashing. Do you think it is possible that Fitz can boost his completion percentage with the right amount of arm strengthening, practice reps with his receivers, and Gailey dialing up short to intermediate passes a la Welker, WR screens, and a proven Tight End relief valve? Edited February 28, 2011 by BiggieScooby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Fitz won four friggin games. Bradford btw won 6. as a rookie on a bad team with a bad defense. Fitz won four friggin games with 2-each games in a weak division where the two top teams couldn't break 500 and the division winner wouldn't have made the playoffs as a wild-card team in any other division. Heck, they'd have tied for 3rd or 4th in any other division. Bradford btw won 6 games as a rookie with 2-each games in arguably the strongest division in the league - the division with one team with best record and another who went to the AFC championship game Oh. Waitaminnut. Bills are 28th in the league in pts given up per game. Rams are 12th. They used high draft picks for the lines for a couple years before Bradford, and their D is getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haplo848 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 2nd Rounders Drew Brees, Purdue Quincy Carter, Georgia Marques Tuiasosopo, Washington Kellen Clemens, Oregon Travaris Jackson, Alabama St. Kevin Kolb, Houston John Beck, BYU Drew Stanton, Michigan Brian Brohm, Louisville Chad Henne, Michigan Pat White, West Virginia Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame 3rd Rounders: Giovanni Carmazzi, Hofstra Chris Redman, Louisville Josh McCown, Sam Houston St. Dave Ragone, Louisville Chris Simms, Texas Matt Schaub, Virginia Charlie Frye, Akron Andrew Walter, Arizona St. David Greene, Georgia Charlie Whitehurst, Clemson Brodie Croyle, Alabama Trent Edwards, Stanford Kevin O’Connell, San Diego St. Colt McCoy, Texas Armanti Edwards, Appalachian State Since 2000, there have only been 2 clear cut starters that happen to be Pro Bowl players, and one potentially decent starter in Kolb. The jury is still out on McCoy and Clausen and whether or not they can become franchise guys. And if Brees were drafted in this years draft at his draft position in 2000, he would have been a 1st round pick because of expansion. The odds of finding your "franchise" QB in these 2 rounds is a paltry 8.3%. In that same time period the QBs drafted in the 1st round are as such: Chad Pennington Mike Vick David Carr Joey Harrington Patrick Ramsey Carson Palmer Byron Leftwich Kyle Boller Rex Grossman Eli Manning Philip Rivers Ben Roethlisberger J.P. Losman Alex Smith Aaron Rodgers Jason Campbell Vince Young Matt Leinart Jay Cutler JaMarcus Russell Brady Quinn Matt Ryan Joe Flacco Matt Stafford Mark Sanchez Josh Freeman Sam Bradford Tim Tebow Of the 28 QBs selected in the 1st round since 2000, 14 of them are franchise guys, with the jury still being out on Tebow. Obviously, most starters and "franchise" QBs are found in the 1st round, but as a trend, it appears that selecting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round is a waste of a draft pick. Which leads me to everyone talking about Fitzpatrick being a QB that could get better given how much he improved last year, but the stats don't lie: 2008-09: 21 starts. 20 TDs, 19 INTs, 58.1% completion rate, 5.8 YPC. 2010: 13 starts. 23 TDs, 15 INTs, 57.8 completion rate, 6.8 YPC Other than a slight bump in TDs, due in large part to the Bills offense only producing six(6) f'cking RUSHING TDs, and a YPC stat that ebbs and flows (for comparisons sake Colt McCoy had a 7.1 YPC last year...do you think he will maintain that over his career?), why are we heralding Fitz, who still has a career 12-23 record, as a guy that can lead this franchise for years to come? Don't get me wrong...I think Fitz is a good place holder while we groom the potential "franchise" guy that the Bills select with the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft, but if people think he is going to be anything beyond that, they need to get their heads checked. Okay, my problem with this list is that if you look at that list of first round picks, how many of them are both successful franchise QBs AND scrambling QBs? You're left with one, Michael Vick. And how many super bowls has he won? None. I don't even think he's won a playoff game, though I could be wrong. You don't waste a high first round pick on a scrambling QB. You don't draft a QB just to draft a QB. You could have every team draft a QB in the first round, because then every single one would have a 50-50 chance at a franchise QB, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 2nd Rounders Drew Brees, Purdue Quincy Carter, Georgia Marques Tuiasosopo, Washington Kellen Clemens, Oregon Travaris Jackson, Alabama St. Kevin Kolb, Houston John Beck, BYU Drew Stanton, Michigan Brian Brohm, Louisville Chad Henne, Michigan Pat White, West Virginia Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame 3rd Rounders: Giovanni Carmazzi, Hofstra Chris Redman, Louisville Josh McCown, Sam Houston St. Dave Ragone, Louisville Chris Simms, Texas Matt Schaub, Virginia Charlie Frye, Akron Andrew Walter, Arizona St. David Greene, Georgia Charlie Whitehurst, Clemson Brodie Croyle, Alabama Trent Edwards, Stanford Kevin O’Connell, San Diego St. Colt McCoy, Texas Armanti Edwards, Appalachian State Since 2000, there have only been 2 clear cut starters that happen to be Pro Bowl players, and one potentially decent starter in Kolb. The jury is still out on McCoy and Clausen and whether or not they can become franchise guys. And if Brees were drafted in this years draft at his draft position in 2000, he would have been a 1st round pick because of expansion. The odds of finding your "franchise" QB in these 2 rounds is a paltry 8.3%. In that same time period the QBs drafted in the 1st round are as such: Chad Pennington Mike Vick David Carr Joey Harrington Patrick Ramsey Carson Palmer Byron Leftwich Kyle Boller Rex Grossman Eli Manning Philip Rivers Ben Roethlisberger J.P. Losman Alex Smith Aaron Rodgers Jason Campbell Vince Young Matt Leinart Jay Cutler JaMarcus Russell Brady Quinn Matt Ryan Joe Flacco Matt Stafford Mark Sanchez Josh Freeman Sam Bradford Tim Tebow Of the 28 QBs selected in the 1st round since 2000, 14 of them are franchise guys, with the jury still being out on Tebow. Obviously, most starters and "franchise" QBs are found in the 1st round, but as a trend, it appears that selecting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round is a waste of a draft pick. Which leads me to everyone talking about Fitzpatrick being a QB that could get better given how much he improved last year, but the stats don't lie: 2008-09: 21 starts. 20 TDs, 19 INTs, 58.1% completion rate, 5.8 YPC. 2010: 13 starts. 23 TDs, 15 INTs, 57.8 completion rate, 6.8 YPC Other than a slight bump in TDs, due in large part to the Bills offense only producing six(6) f'cking RUSHING TDs, and a YPC stat that ebbs and flows (for comparisons sake Colt McCoy had a 7.1 YPC last year...do you think he will maintain that over his career?), why are we heralding Fitz, who still has a career 12-23 record, as a guy that can lead this franchise for years to come? Don't get me wrong...I think Fitz is a good place holder while we groom the potential "franchise" guy that the Bills select with the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft, but if people think he is going to be anything beyond that, they need to get their heads checked. Of your list, it can be easily shown that Fitzpatrick had a better year than Cutler, Sanchez, and Bradford. His quality of play was very similar to Eli Manning. All this is said without really looking at the quality of the supporting cast that any of these guys works with. Ryan took a big step forward last year and there are many historical examples of QBs that made such an improvement to their game at similar points in their careers. I am not willing to say what a player's limit is nor would I choose to use a word like "never." For those that think, speak and write that way about the future, I say good luck with that because history tends to make you look foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I don't even think he's won a playoff game, though I could be wrong. You're wrong. Michael Vick and the Dan Reeves coached Falcons won the first playoff game in Green Bay ever (Green Bay had never lost a playoff game at home) on the way the NFC Championship game in 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 In that same time period the QBs drafted in the 1st round are as such: Chad Pennington Mike Vick David Carr Joey Harrington Patrick Ramsey Carson Palmer Byron Leftwich Kyle Boller Rex Grossman Eli Manning Philip Rivers Ben Roethlisberger J.P. Losman Alex Smith Aaron Rodgers Jason Campbell Vince Young Matt Leinart Jay Cutler JaMarcus Russell Brady Quinn Matt Ryan Joe Flacco Matt Stafford Mark Sanchez Josh Freeman Sam Bradford Tim Tebow Of the 28 QBs selected in the 1st round since 2000, 14 of them are franchise guys, with the jury still being out on Tebow....... Not sure what your working definition of "franchise" might be but I am not so sure that Sanchez, Bradford, or Stafford have shown enough to know which path their careers will take. They were drafted high, got paid a ton of money, and will start when healthy. The same was true of Carr, Harrington, Boller, Leftwich, et. al. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattsox Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 2nd Rounders Drew Brees, Purdue Quincy Carter, Georgia Marques Tuiasosopo, Washington Kellen Clemens, Oregon Travaris Jackson, Alabama St. Kevin Kolb, Houston John Beck, BYU Drew Stanton, Michigan Brian Brohm, Louisville Chad Henne, Michigan Pat White, West Virginia Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame 3rd Rounders: Giovanni Carmazzi, Hofstra Chris Redman, Louisville Josh McCown, Sam Houston St. Dave Ragone, Louisville Chris Simms, Texas Matt Schaub, Virginia Charlie Frye, Akron Andrew Walter, Arizona St. David Greene, Georgia Charlie Whitehurst, Clemson Brodie Croyle, Alabama Trent Edwards, Stanford Kevin O’Connell, San Diego St. Colt McCoy, Texas Armanti Edwards, Appalachian State Since 2000, there have only been 2 clear cut starters that happen to be Pro Bowl players, and one potentially decent starter in Kolb. The jury is still out on McCoy and Clausen and whether or not they can become franchise guys. And if Brees were drafted in this years draft at his draft position in 2000, he would have been a 1st round pick because of expansion. The odds of finding your "franchise" QB in these 2 rounds is a paltry 8.3%. In that same time period the QBs drafted in the 1st round are as such: Chad Pennington Mike Vick David Carr Joey Harrington Patrick Ramsey Carson Palmer Byron Leftwich Kyle Boller Rex Grossman Eli Manning Philip Rivers Ben Roethlisberger J.P. Losman Alex Smith Aaron Rodgers Jason Campbell Vince Young Matt Leinart Jay Cutler JaMarcus Russell Brady Quinn Matt Ryan Joe Flacco Matt Stafford Mark Sanchez Josh Freeman Sam Bradford Tim Tebow Of the 28 QBs selected in the 1st round since 2000, 14 of them are franchise guys, with the jury still being out on Tebow. Obviously, most starters and "franchise" QBs are found in the 1st round, but as a trend, it appears that selecting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round is a waste of a draft pick. Which leads me to everyone talking about Fitzpatrick being a QB that could get better given how much he improved last year, but the stats don't lie: 2008-09: 21 starts. 20 TDs, 19 INTs, 58.1% completion rate, 5.8 YPC. 2010: 13 starts. 23 TDs, 15 INTs, 57.8 completion rate, 6.8 YPC Other than a slight bump in TDs, due in large part to the Bills offense only producing six(6) f'cking RUSHING TDs, and a YPC stat that ebbs and flows (for comparisons sake Colt McCoy had a 7.1 YPC last year...do you think he will maintain that over his career?), why are we heralding Fitz, who still has a career 12-23 record, as a guy that can lead this franchise for years to come? Don't get me wrong...I think Fitz is a good place holder while we groom the potential "franchise" guy that the Bills select with the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft, but if people think he is going to be anything beyond that, they need to get their heads checked. I say get a journeyman in 2011, build the lines, keep Fitz safe, and address the QB position in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob in STL Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Dont forget that EIGHT of his TD's came in 2 games this year, leaving his total over the other 11 games very modest. And in one of those games, he was atrocious until BOTH starting safeties got knocked out of the game (Cincy)...his TD's production looks much better as a TOTAL than it does going game by game. Also, 3 more of those TD's came in garbage time in the final minutes of blow outs during his first 3 games (1 each in his first 3 starts). The "homers" will point to his TD total, the realists would point to how bad and lowly rated he was in almost all key QB stats, the turnovers, his record, his bad games (which greatly out weigh his good games), and how while he is light years better than Trent that doesnt make him a good QB. He is a stop gap at best. I love his guts, heart, and leadership...unfortunately the rest of his game just isnt strong enough or consistent enough. I do not consider Fitz to be a franchise QB either but some of what you say applies to all QB. What happens if you take away the two best games from any QB's in a season? All good QBs feast on garbage time. I think you are correct when stating that Fitz's guts and leadership are his best attributes. You can see that the other players play for him. That was very evident when Fewell became the interim HC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
symbiant Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 New regimes = New QB's They're gonna take a QB early this year to be "THEIR GUY". The "happy with Fitz" talk is true until their guy is ready but also a smokescreen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koufax Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Of the 28 QBs selected in the 1st round since 2000, 14 of them are franchise guys, with the jury still being out on Tebow. Obviously, most starters and "franchise" QBs are found in the 1st round, but as a trend, it appears that selecting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round is a waste of a draft pick. But Aaron Rodgers was a lot closer to our second round pick than our #3, so if you look at QBs picked in the top 5: Bradford Stafford Ryan Russell Vince Young Alex Smith Eli Rivers Palmer Carr Harrington Vick I probably would take my chances on that group if I could trade my #3 for a random member of that list at age 22. But there is definitely some risk element there. I am very happy to pass on Dareus if necessary if Buddy and Chan really think that Cam or Gabbert is the guy we want, but this draft isn't about history as much as it is about one question: What is the likelihood that Chan can turn Cam or Gabbert into a great NFL QB? There is always an element of risk with any player and definitely with QBs. So what do you think the chances are that Newton is considered a great QB in five years (not that he takes five years to do that, but looking at him over a five year period you would call him great)? The same for Gabbert? I think Newton is a higher ceiling (Big Ben) but also a higher risk (Russell). I haven't seen Gabbert play as much, but I would peg him as more likely to be at least very good, but less likely to be great. If either of those guys seems really pretty likely to be great, I am happy picking them. Both have the physical tools to do it. Neither has the pro-style decision making experience be certain, so we are looking at a lot of projection and guessing. I like Nix/Chan making that projection over Donohue, Jauron, etc. Similarly, if Chan has reason to think that Ponder, etc might have a good chance of being a Brees/Kolb/Schaub, I have no problem rolling the dice on that with our second or third round pick where we often settle for Youboty/Parrish/Hardy types So basically I agree with your premise and don't personally see any QB worth of #3, but I really trust Chan is very well suited to making that evaluation, and won't be disappointed if we pick a QB, because it means a huge vote of confidence from him to pass on the non-QBs...as long as Ralph isn't involved in that decision which is the main way it could go awry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aloha22 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I'm sorry but this is a horrible analysis for this year. I know you put a lot of work into compiling everything which I am thankful for but here is the deal: The quarterback class of this year is very weak and most of these guys would normally be very late first round picks but more likely, 2nd and 3rd round picks. There are no hot shot QBs coming out in this years draft and therefore the entire class will move up spots just because of that fact. If there were 2 stud QBs in this draft, Locker, Mallet, Newton, Gabbert, etc. would all be 2nd round picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van_phelaN1 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 If Fitzpatrick can improve his accuracy by say 5% that will improve his ypc, and no one will complain. He throws plenty of balls that can go for yards, unfortunately he's simply not always accurate. I give him the starting job next year by default, but we still should keep an eye out for a franchise guy going forward. I don't understand the black and white nature of everyone. Drafting a QB at some point in the next couple years doesn't mean Fitzpatrick sucks. And not reaching to draft someone questionable does not mean Fitzpatrick is god like. He's a decent QB, and its possible for him to further improve, even if its improbable. Agreed. Not to mention including guys like Mark Sanchez (hardly a proven franchise QB) kind of screws the numbers up a bit. The reality here is that if there is a guy there at 3 who they think is worth taking there, they are going to take him. If they feel that the QBs available at the time aren't worth the pick, they wont take one. They will draft and take (hopefully) the best available player that fills a need. Just like you said, that doesn't mean we can pencil Fitz in for ten years. All it means is they didn't see anything there worth taking the risk on. I have faith they will make the smart choice...even if that faith is completely unfounded based on past draft history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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