Mock Draft 1

[Rockinon]

Wha?? Astro ROCKS!

I agree. He never gets hung up on one player and constantly looks at things from different angles.

[Beerball]

For those of you who don't know me, I'm the Bills' Analyst for www.DraftTek.com, and I hang out only at TSW, where I feel there are more fans cognizant about football and the Bills' needs. I'm the one who posts the comments on our

And that is why yours are the only Drafttek threads I open. This would be IMO an outstanding draft...especially picks 1-3. Stanzi is definitely worth a look if he's there in the 5^th.

[The Senator]

Dareus at 12?

 

 

Cam Newton at 15??

 

 

sort of destroys whatever credibility you think you may have at this site

People were shocked and pundits made to look foolish when Leinart slipped to #10 in '06 and more recently when Jimmy 'The Emu' Clausen and Colt McCoy slipped to rounds 2 & 3 last year, so I would not be at all surprised if they looked foolish again this year when Kim Newton finally gets picked much later than anyone predicts or expects. It happens every single year. (Pundits looking foolish, that is.)

 

I wouldn't even be totally shocked if Newton slipped to round 2.

[cåblelady]

People were shocked and pundits made to look foolish when Leinart slipped to #10 in '06 and more recently when Jimmy 'The Emu' Clausen and Colt McCoy slipped to rounds 2 & 3 last year, so I would not be at all surprised if they looked foolish again this year when Kim Newton finally gets picked much later than anyone predicts or expects. It happens every single year. (Pundits looking foolish, that is.)

 

I wouldn't even be totally shocked if Newton slipped to round 2.

Kim Newton. *LOL* U crack me up!

[Beerball]

Dareus at 12?

 

 

Cam Newton at 15??

 

 

sort of destroys whatever credibility you think you may have at this site

Astro doesn't need me defending him, but I will anyway because I respect his opinion.

 

If I remember correctly he's predicting Bills picks based on what other team 'reps' do. He didn't project Newton at 15, that's where he fell, same with Dareus.

 

As for credibility...Astro has more than enough. You?

[Bring Back Kelly]

I LOVE Fairley-Ayers 1-2! I like Ponder in the 3rd, however, I don't think he will last. I just started a thread on a possible trade with AZ to get Ponder with the 38th. pick. Chekwa in round 4 is a MUST if he is there. Love the work you do on Draft Tek!

Love the first three picks. Ponder might slide to the 4th round. He is more of a west coast Offense fit though. If Stocker slides to the third, I would grab him in a heartbeat. Mallett could slide to the fourth. and if you wait on the QB, this one might slide. He did not handle the media too well. They almost baited him to see how he would handle the pressure. but He got glowing reviews as a passer. Tony Pauline of SI.com stated that he out performed most of the competition. It's a crap shoot with him. He has almost zero mobility. He would be a good QB with a good line, but he would be a sitting duck here. Unless we upgrade our OL signifigantly. Plus, he is a bit immature, I probably would pass on him. Colin Kaepernick looked pretty good and Locker looked good at the combine. Maybe Locker in the second is a better fit. Don't know if he makes it or not, but He is more apt to lead an offense like ours than someone who has character issues.

[Hplarrm]

so the DE that Nix drafted last year is already a bust and being replaced by another 2nd or 3rd rounder?

 

 

I don't think 2 DEs is a priority on anyone's wish list when they still don't have 1 NFL quality 3-4 nose tackle or any NFL caliber LBs.

 

Cam will be the pick in the 1st round unless he goes #1 to Carolina- which is very likely.

 

As far as trading down, the top picks are not as damaging this year when the rookie wage scale kicks in to limit the massive contracts and guaranteed payment. Maybe Buddy surprises and moves up to #1 for Cam.

I hope this is not the case as though I could see a way one might make this work toward what I see as the ultimate goal (winning a bunch of games each year to the point where we win enough to routinely go deep in the playoffs ane even win the SB a few times) with Cam at the helm.

 

However, I would see the cost of this being likely two years of pretty horrible W/L results and even in that "best" case we would have to keep our fingers crossed that Newton is tough and lucky enough to survive as a young QB with an inadequate OL in front of him.

 

If Cam were to achieve Manning's most unusual and IMHO outstanding rookie achievement achievement (he was the only QB in the entire NFL that year to start every game, that would be phenomenal) but is far beyond realistic expectations for Newton at QB. The most probable way I could see Newton being a contributor as a rookie to the Bills would be if we utilized him in a versatile manner similar to how the Jets used Smith (Newton would obviously not be used as a return guy but would exceed Smith being used as a passer in a Wildcat formation).

 

However, the more likely highest and best use I could see the Bills actually obtain from Newton as a rookie is that the simply watches and learns as a rookie from the bench as Brady did with Bledsoe in NE until a freak injury forced Brady into play.

 

Newton might one day turn out to be a great one, but I do not think anyone has made a credible case for him to be even likely to survive playing behind our OL which is a player and a half away from adequacy.

 

The primary thing Fitz brings to our O which Newton cannot is vet based football intelligence and world class intellect which allows him to read and anticipate the oppomemt blitz and rush.

[tonyjustbcuz]

For those of you who don't know me, I'm the Bills' Analyst for www.DraftTek.com, and I hang out only at TSW, where I feel there are more fans cognizant about football and the Bills' needs. I'm the one who posts the comments on our weekly Consensus Mocks, like our most recent Fairley-Ayers draft.

 

Here is what I'm thinking:

--->We are not taking a DT early because Nix and Chan are happy with whom they have in Williams/Troup source

 

--->There are very few QB’s or TE’s who will be drafted in the 4th; You have to take QB in the 3rd. That's where Ponder-Mallett-DJ Williams will go. Stocker's Combine bench press moved him into RD#2.

 

--->Nix wants 2 ILBS coming from somewhere (Draft or FA or Batten)--I’d grab one ILB sooner rather than later, take the 2nd ILB later, and groom Batten, who will be very, very good

 

I'm thinking we take DE, ILB, TE, CB, RT, QB, LT, and OC this year.

 

1-DE: Nick Fairley --In our Simulation Carolina-Denver went Bowers-Peterson. We'll listen to trade-down offers for a 2nd and 4th Rounder. AJ Green is less likely in the mix after his combine today. Newton and Gabbert could be a factor that generates interest. No way we trade a chance at Fairley, though

2-ILB Akeem Ayers --Paea was already gone and it’s way too early for "Baylor Taylor", and we aren't likely taking a nose tackle twice in 2 years

3-TE Stocker QB Ponder, QB Mallett, or TE Stocker are all there—Stocker just outbenched all TE’s at the combine and may not last this far when we update our Big Board. If so, take Ponder here and Julius Thomas in the 5th, who I think is an underrated TE

4-CB Chimdi Chekwa, ILB Owen Marecic, CB Korey Lindsey, or TE Charlie Gantt –best value is Chekwa, then Marecic, who's a throwback lunch pail guy who played both ways

4-RT Orlando Franklin, S Dom DeCicco, RT James Brewer –best value is Franklin

5-QB Ricky Stanzi, FS Ahmad Black TE Julius Thomas, – All are value picks at this point; see RD#3

6-LT Curt Porter, TE Rob Housler, LT Derel Hall –Porter is one of the better run blocking LT’s in the draft

7-OC Ryan Bartholomew, TE Jordan Cameron, TE Andre Smith, CB Mario Butler, OC Linnenkohl, DE David Carter – Hard choice here as I think Cameron's going to make a squad but we need O-line Depth at Center. Bartholomew from Syracuse gets the nod

 

 

I have to say that I like the info you just put out and your mock as well....I am the owner of (Tony's one and only mock draft on this site and posted last night...) I'm not as developed in doing mocks for other to see..but some of the picks we share were Ricky Stanzi, but I admittedly picked him to soon as I really like what I've researched about him. I also picked Luke Stocker (probably in the wrong spot..but he's on my mock..) I mention how I would love to get Fairley, but didn't think the opportunity will be there (hope I'm wrong!)I also predicted a trade-down with S.Fran because I think Harbaugh would like to get Gabbert as I heard he was actually the initial QB he was pursuing prior to getting A. Luck at Stanford. (Don't know if that's true for sure though..)..In my trade we would swap spots with the 49'ers at #7 and pickup their 45th pick in the 2nd round and next years 3rd round pick. So we're close on that one I believe..I can envision us possibly trading with Cleve, Arizona, or S.F.

 

I also liked Orlando Franklin a lot but there are only so many slots to fill and I didn't select him, but strongly considered him. I may have goofed by selecting both S. Acho and Von Miller, but I got caught up in what I read and went in that direction.

 

Well again I like your post, I can fine tune my mock skills with info like this and will be looking for your posts in the future! Thanks!

[Spillerwich]

I want Von Miller at #3!!!! If were going to try and play the hybrid version of the 3-4, 4-3. He has all the tools to play in either pass rusher and or drop back into coverage and pass defend. I also think that Chan and Buddy have a liking to Christian Ponder from Florida State. he has done a good job so far in the senior bowl and so far at the combine he has not dropped off at all. I like both of them to be able to help us. Miller next year and Ponder maybe learn a bit from Fitz for a couple of years instead of tossing another young kid into the fire right away. Go Bills!!!!

[voodoo poonani]

For those of you who don't know me, I'm the Bills' Analyst for www.DraftTek.com, and I hang out only at TSW, where I feel there are more fans cognizant about football and the Bills' needs. I'm the one who posts the comments on our weekly Consensus Mocks, like our most recent Fairley-Ayers draft.

 

Here is what I'm thinking:

--->We are not taking a DT early because Nix and Chan are happy with whom they have in Williams/Troup source

 

--->There are very few QB’s or TE’s who will be drafted in the 4th; You have to take QB in the 3rd. That's where Ponder-Mallett-DJ Williams will go. Stocker's Combine bench press moved him into RD#2.

 

--->Nix wants 2 ILBS coming from somewhere (Draft or FA or Batten)--I’d grab one ILB sooner rather than later, take the 2nd ILB later, and groom Batten, who will be very, very good

 

I'm thinking we take DE, ILB, TE, CB, RT, QB, LT, and OC this year.

 

1-DE: Nick Fairley --In our Simulation Carolina-Denver went Bowers-Peterson. We'll listen to trade-down offers for a 2nd and 4th Rounder. AJ Green is less likely in the mix after his combine today. Newton and Gabbert could be a factor that generates interest. No way we trade a chance at Fairley, though

2-ILB Akeem Ayers --Paea was already gone and it’s way too early for "Baylor Taylor", and we aren't likely taking a nose tackle twice in 2 years

3-TE Stocker QB Ponder, QB Mallett, or TE Stocker are all there—Stocker just outbenched all TE’s at the combine and may not last this far when we update our Big Board. If so, take Ponder here and Julius Thomas in the 5th, who I think is an underrated TE

4-CB Chimdi Chekwa, ILB Owen Marecic, CB Korey Lindsey, or TE Charlie Gantt –best value is Chekwa, then Marecic, who's a throwback lunch pail guy who played both ways

4-RT Orlando Franklin, S Dom DeCicco, RT James Brewer –best value is Franklin

5-QB Ricky Stanzi, FS Ahmad Black TE Julius Thomas, – All are value picks at this point; see RD#3

6-LT Curt Porter, TE Rob Housler, LT Derel Hall –Porter is one of the better run blocking LT’s in the draft

7-OC Ryan Bartholomew, TE Jordan Cameron, TE Andre Smith, CB Mario Butler, OC Linnenkohl, DE David Carter – Hard choice here as I think Cameron's going to make a squad but we need O-line Depth at Center. Bartholomew from Syracuse gets the nod

 

1 - DT/DE Marcell Dareus

2 - DT Paea (I hope he's there at 34) or best OT/ILB available

3 - QB Mallet

[K Gun Special]

People were shocked and pundits made to look foolish when Leinart slipped to #10 in '06 and more recently when Jimmy 'The Emu' Clausen and Colt McCoy slipped to rounds 2 & 3 last year, so I would not be at all surprised if they looked foolish again this year when Kim Newton finally gets picked much later than anyone predicts or expects. It happens every single year. (Pundits looking foolish, that is.)

 

I wouldn't even be totally shocked if Newton slipped to round 2.

 

 

Yes it does happen with the #2 or #3 QB in a given draft. Leinart was that guy.

 

But your memory may be a little off, ESPN had him in the #7 spot and many other had him at least that high.

 

 

The problem with all these mocks is that they are written by people with no knowledge of a team's grades on a player. They also put far too much emphasis on the Combine, especially when several top GM's have said it does not sway them very much. Nobody really skyrockets up draft boards or leaps rounds. It's a cottage industry and this fakeness is drummed up by these sites to keep NFL hungry fans clicking. The tapes of the guys playing actual football is what counts the most no matter how many times he can bench or how fast he can run.

 

you think cam is taken after mallett?

[hammie65]

For those of you who don't know me, I'm the Bills' Analyst for www.DraftTek.com, and I hang out only at TSW, where I feel there are more fans cognizant about football and the Bills' needs. I'm the one who posts the comments on our weekly Consensus Mocks, like our most recent Fairley-Ayers draft.

 

Here is what I'm thinking:

--->We are not taking a DT early because Nix and Chan are happy with whom they have in Williams/Troup source

 

--->There are very few QB’s or TE’s who will be drafted in the 4th; You have to take QB in the 3rd. That's where Ponder-Mallett-DJ Williams will go. Stocker's Combine bench press moved him into RD#2.

 

--->Nix wants 2 ILBS coming from somewhere (Draft or FA or Batten)--I’d grab one ILB sooner rather than later, take the 2nd ILB later, and groom Batten, who will be very, very good

 

I'm thinking we take DE, ILB, TE, CB, RT, QB, LT, and OC this year.

 

1-DE: Nick Fairley --In our Simulation Carolina-Denver went Bowers-Peterson. We'll listen to trade-down offers for a 2nd and 4th Rounder. AJ Green is less likely in the mix after his combine today. Newton and Gabbert could be a factor that generates interest. No way we trade a chance at Fairley, though

2-ILB Akeem Ayers --Paea was already gone and it’s way too early for "Baylor Taylor", and we aren't likely taking a nose tackle twice in 2 years

3-TE Stocker QB Ponder, QB Mallett, or TE Stocker are all there—Stocker just outbenched all TE’s at the combine and may not last this far when we update our Big Board. If so, take Ponder here and Julius Thomas in the 5th, who I think is an underrated TE

4-CB Chimdi Chekwa, ILB Owen Marecic, CB Korey Lindsey, or TE Charlie Gantt –best value is Chekwa, then Marecic, who's a throwback lunch pail guy who played both ways

4-RT Orlando Franklin, S Dom DeCicco, RT James Brewer –best value is Franklin

5-QB Ricky Stanzi, FS Ahmad Black TE Julius Thomas, – All are value picks at this point; see RD#3

6-LT Curt Porter, TE Rob Housler, LT Derel Hall –Porter is one of the better run blocking LT’s in the draft

7-OC Ryan Bartholomew, TE Jordan Cameron, TE Andre Smith, CB Mario Butler, OC Linnenkohl, DE David Carter – Hard choice here as I think Cameron's going to make a squad but we need O-line Depth at Center. Bartholomew from Syracuse gets the nod

 

If this draft were to end up being possible it would be awesome!!! I love most of these possibilities where they are listed and think ponder and stanzi are definite value picks at 3 and 5 (if they are still there) from pro-style offenses and both looked good at the combine today. The positions and names you suggest we pick for at each spot are excellent.

 

The only thing I disagree about is Phil Taylor if he is there in the 2nd rd (I think the Jets will take him at #30 in the 1st rd) especially after the way he played for Chan in the senior bowl. Jerrell Powe would be another possibility here and imagine Kyle Williams, Nick Fairley, and either Taylor or Powe next to each other on the D-line. Nobody would be able to run it on us!

[4BillsintheBurgh]

For those of you who don't know me, I'm the Bills' Analyst for www.DraftTek.com, and I hang out only at TSW, where I feel there are more fans cognizant about football and the Bills' needs. I'm the one who posts the comments on our weekly Consensus Mocks, like our most recent Fairley-Ayers draft.

 

I was wondering something about the big board rankings. If I plug our postions into the value and say in the case of Peterson who I'm guessing we would use as a cb because we have Byrd, wouldn't that knock him down 10 spots (the P2 diff as of 2/27/2011 from FS to cb)? So then our bpa in the first would be (1) Green, (2) Cam Jordan, (3) Von Miller and (4) Julio Jones. Is that how the p2 diff works?

[Astrobot]

I was wondering something about the big board rankings. If I plug our postions into the value and say in the case of Peterson who I'm guessing we would use as a cb because we have Byrd, wouldn't that knock him down 10 spots (the P2 diff as of 2/27/2011 from FS to cb)? So then our bpa in the first would be (1) Green, (2) Cam Jordan, (3) Von Miller and (4) Julio Jones. Is that how the p2 diff works?

 

I think you have it right, and it's an excellent observation.

Look at the Big Board at DraftTek. Here's the first player:

 

Rnk-----Player------------------College-Ht------Wt------P1------P2------P2Dif---Chng

1-------Patrick Peterson--------LSU-----6'1"----211-----FS------CB-------10-----+1

 

 

Peterson is first on the board if played as a FS, his P1 (Priority 1) position. As such, he's #1 on our Board. He'll make a fine CB, too, but there are 10 players better than Peterson used as a CB.

 

P2Diff is just the difference in slot between the two positions he can play.

 

Three players where we'll draft in RD#1 have a P2Diff of ZERO: Cam Jordan (DE34 / DE43), Von Miller (OLB43 / OLB34), and Robert Quinn (OLB34 / DE43). We call them scheme-versatile, and of more use in a hybrid. We're therefore more likely to take them for that reason.

 

The two greatest P2Diff players where we draft is Da'Quan Bowers (drops 34 slots if used as a 3-4 DE instead of a 4-3 DE) and Nick Fairley (drops 13 slots if used as a DE34 instead of DT43). I'm beginning to think that's why we won't take Bowers; not ready to say that about Fairley...

[4BillsintheBurgh]

I think you have it right, and it's an excellent observation.

Look at the Big Board at DraftTek. Here's the first player:

 

Rnk-----Player------------------College-Ht------Wt------P1------P2------P2Dif---Chng

1-------Patrick Peterson--------LSU-----6'1"----211-----FS------CB-------10-----+1

 

 

Peterson is first on the board if played as a FS, his P1 (Priority 1) position. As such, he's #1 on our Board. He'll make a fine CB, too, but there are 10 players better than Peterson used as a CB.

 

P2Diff is just the difference in slot between the two positions he can play.

 

Three players where we'll draft in RD#1 have a P2Diff of ZERO: Cam Jordan (DE34 / DE43), Von Miller (OLB43 / OLB34), and Robert Quinn (OLB34 / DE43). We call them scheme-versatile, and of more use in a hybrid. We're therefore more likely to take them for that reason.

 

The two greatest P2Diff players where we draft is Da'Quan Bowers (drops 34 slots if used as a 3-4 DE instead of a 4-3 DE) and Nick Fairley (drops 13 slots if used as a DE34 instead of DT43). I'm beginning to think that's why we won't take Bowers; not ready to say that about Fairley...

Thanks for clarifying this Astro, I appreciate the work you put in to provide info to us. I haven't played around with your site too much yet, still a little early for me.

 

One small thing for displaying cut and pastes that you could find helpful. Put the word "code" in between brackets ([]) before your cut and paste and then a closing one also "/code" also in brackets to get everything to line up nicely. If you've ever noticed when you reply to someone their text is started with a "quote" in brackets and the "/quote" finishes it. Same thought here, just swap the word quote with code. Just trying to save your dash key a little exercise.

 

Here is an example that I aligned with spaces.

 

Edit: If you reply to this, you will see the syntax.

 

Rnk Player           College Ht   Wt  P1 P2 P2Dif Chng 
1   Patrick Peterson LSU     6'1" 211 FS CB -10   +1  

Edited February 28, 2011 by 4BillsintheBurgh

[Astrobot]

You are awesome!

This is a time saver!

Here is the Top 15 of DraftTek's Big Board for practice:

 

Rnk	Player	College	Ht	Wt	P1	P2	P2Dif	Chng
1	Patrick Peterson	LSU	6'1"	211	FS	CB	-10	+1
2	Nick Fairley	Auburn	6'4"	298	DT43	DE34	-13	-1
3	A.J. Green	Georgia	6'4"	205	WRF			+1
4	Da'Quan Bowers	Clemson	6'4"	278	DE43	DE34	-34	-1
5	Cameron Jordan	California	6'4"	287	DE34	DE43	0	+2
6	Marcell Dareus	Alabama	6'3"	306	DT43	DE34	-9	+2
7	Von Miller	Texas A&M	6'3"	237	OLB43	OLB34	0	+2
8	Julio Jones	Alabama	6'4"	212	WRF			+2
9	Robert Quinn	North Carolina	6'5"	268	OLB34	DE43	0	-4
10	Prince Amukamara	Nebraska	6'1"	205	CB			-4
11	Blaine Gabbert	Missouri	6'5"	240	QB			+1
12	Anthony Castonzo	Boston College	6'7"	305	LOT			+1
13	Aldon Smith	Missouri	6'5"	260	OLB34	DE43	-5	+1
14	J.J. Watt	Wisconsin	6'6"	285	DE34	DE43	-4	+2
15	Cameron Newton	Auburn	6'6"	250	QB			+3

[4BillsintheBurgh]

You are awesome!

This is a time saver!

Here is the Top 15 of DraftTek's Big Board for practice:

 

Rnk	Player	College	Ht	Wt	P1	P2	P2Dif	Chng
1	Patrick Peterson	LSU	6'1"	211	FS	CB	-10	+1
2	Nick Fairley	Auburn	6'4"	298	DT43	DE34	-13	-1
3	A.J. Green	Georgia	6'4"	205	WRF			+1
4	Da'Quan Bowers	Clemson	6'4"	278	DE43	DE34	-34	-1
5	Cameron Jordan	California	6'4"	287	DE34	DE43	0	+2
6	Marcell Dareus	Alabama	6'3"	306	DT43	DE34	-9	+2
7	Von Miller	Texas A&M	6'3"	237	OLB43	OLB34	0	+2
8	Julio Jones	Alabama	6'4"	212	WRF			+2
9	Robert Quinn	North Carolina	6'5"	268	OLB34	DE43	0	-4
10	Prince Amukamara	Nebraska	6'1"	205	CB			-4
11	Blaine Gabbert	Missouri	6'5"	240	QB			+1
12	Anthony Castonzo	Boston College	6'7"	305	LOT			+1
13	Aldon Smith	Missouri	6'5"	260	OLB34	DE43	-5	+1
14	J.J. Watt	Wisconsin	6'6"	285	DE34	DE43	-4	+2
15	Cameron Newton	Auburn	6'6"	250	QB			+3

I had the same issue a while ago, and stumbled upon this in another forum. Unfortunately it's not great, but it beats wanting to punch the screen when you spend a ton of time and it still looks like poo.

[Hplarrm]

Yes it does happen with the #2 or #3 QB in a given draft. Leinart was that guy.

 

But your memory may be a little off, ESPN had him in the #7 spot and many other had him at least that high.

 

 

The problem with all these mocks is that they are written by people with no knowledge of a team's grades on a player. They also put far too much emphasis on the Combine, especially when several top GM's have said it does not sway them very much. Nobody really skyrockets up draft boards or leaps rounds. It's a cottage industry and this fakeness is drummed up by these sites to keep NFL hungry fans clicking. The tapes of the guys playing actual football is what counts the most no matter how many times he can bench or how fast he can run.

 

you think cam is taken after mallett?

I disagree a bit with your take on the impact of the Combine in these areas:

 

1. 1. From what I have seen over the years I totally agree with you that it appears to be a rarity to have a player make a big positive move due to his Combine performance BUT a bad combine showing likely can cause a players stock and draft position to drop a lot. The whole dynamic seems to be that usually there is a bit of a friendly (and in some cases not so friendly) debate between various coaches about team needs and who to pick. If the OC is making a case to the HC about drafting so O help, and a D player shows up at the Combine having put on a bit of weight or not in good shape then the O guys will use this as a reason to badmouth the D. Players seem to rarely move up because teams have been badly burned by workout warriors. No one knows for sure as this is all about keeping secrets about team priorities for drafting and then financially when it is contract time. However, I think the default in this situation has to be that a Bad Combine performance can hurt a player big time not because it changes anyone's mind but because it plays into what various team forces who may be losing the internal debate can make use of Combine info.

 

2. Most players have been seen actually play by scouts and seen by all on film. Its simply logistically impossible for everyone who has a say to have seen everyone but that is why the Combine was created. Official height and weight measurements are taken (they use to rely on the schools themselves and lying has dropped a lot with official measures but surprises (both positive and negative do happen still. You are right that whole new arguments are not created by Combine results but big moves in where a player is taken do appear to happen as the arguers are reinforced or hurt big time by Combine info and seeing the draftees live by many decision makers for the first time.

 

3. GMs are on record saying the Combine results mean little to them. However, GMs lie! In fact I hope Nix is in fact lying to me about the team's needs because if he lies to me in order to fool our opponents I say by all means lie to me and fool us badly.

 

4. Many of the lists and bloggers are simply wrong. However, when it comes down to fan and local media reaction to a pick to a good degree perception is reality. If a team picks a player with lets say the #3 pick but the general consensus is that this players stock among the media and bloggers is that he played like a stiff at the Combine the team ends up getting grief for reaching with their pick. The customer is always right and if the customers are consistently being told a player is bad because of the media's lemming like views of the Combine it can make a real difference.

 

4. Combine perception may not be real in terms of on the field output but again perceptions make a big difference in contract negotiations. If a player is delayed in making it to camp this can be influenced significantly by Combine performance and how a player actually produces once he signs a contract and comes to camp cam make a real world difference.

 

 

For these and other reasons you are wrong to claim the Combine is not meaningful.

[Astrobot]

I'm working right now on my commentary for the Bills' picks on the Draft Tek weekly mock draft. It'll be posted some time after midnight. You may be surprised at what the Simulator came up with in RD1: Cameron Jordan, the DE out of Cal. I'm here to discuss the possibility of this pick, not really to defend it or attack it. Mocks are just a kind of game we play to bridge us through the next 8 weeks.

 

I can explain this pick somewhat----Only 3 players in the upper half of RD1 are "scheme versatile"--Quinn, Von Miller, and Cameron Jordan. All 3 have a P2Diff score of ZERO on our Big Board, unlike Dareus, Fairley and Bowers, who take a substantial dropoff down the Big Board if drafted as a 3-4 player. Quinn's been out a year, there are questions about Von Miller (not ideal size, lose contain too often with an overused outside "swim" move), and only Cam Jordan has zero dropoff between DE34 and DE43, and the Bills plan to run a hybrid scheme.

 

Today's mini Astro-Munch of draft pundits suggests that we'll receive some static about this selection:

 

Rob Rang--------DT Dareus

Chad Reuter-----CB Peterson

Pete Prisco-----QB Gabbert

CDS-------------WR Green

Draft Ace-------CB Peterson

Popejoy DBI-----QB Newton

Draft Breakdown-DT Fairley

Draft Bulletin--LB Miller

Draft Countdown-DT Dareus

Draft Daddy-----DT Fairley

Draft Insiders--WR Green

Draft Season----QB Newton

Draft Zoo-------LB Quinn

Kiper-----------QB Newton

McShay----------LB Miller

F'ball's Future-WR Green

Draft 101 Staff-DE Bowers

Chris Maier-----DT Dareus

Draft Blitz-----QB Newton

Draft Dog-------LB Quinn

Draft Geek------WR Green

News and Rumors-WR Green

Walter Football-QB Newton

 

(See why the Bills are the wildcard this year?) But...

 

All of the defensive players listed we've ranked lower than Jordan FOR A 3-4 scheme. Cameron Jordan has the size, quickness, and motor. He is virtually unblockable with more varied pass rush moves than Miller, and he's more practiced in both schemes the Bills run. If Nix doesn't like 1-year wonders, what will he think of Quinn, who's been out a year?

 

Let's discuss the possibility of yet another horse in this race.

Astro

[stony]

I disagree with your opinion of Ayers. He does seem to have gained some interest as of late, but he's a 2nd round prospect, IMO. I'm actually not a fan of his at all. He's got a lanky, thin build and I don't think he's all that strong against the run. Okay but not good. I see him get pushed back and easily blocked a lot on his game tape. I think we could do better with our 2nd round pick than Ayers. I happen to like Justin Houston, a lot more, even though he's more of a pure OLB than Ayers who some project as an ILB.

 

I'm not sure why Houston hasn't received the same type of hype as Ayers as he looks to be the better player of the two. I don't think Houston will make it past NE at pick #33, but if he does I'd love to see the Bills take him.

 

Props to you on your analysis on Ayers. Not to make too much out of the combine, but it appears your misconceptions regarding him proved to be right. I'm hearing he might slip to he second now.