NewEra Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 if we aren't sold on Blaine Gabbert. No other QB is worth it, imo. While I think Newton may become special, it's a gamble I wouldn't want to take. The highest rated players on the board when we select, either, don't fit our system or play a position that we shouldn't be addressing with the number 3 overall selections. Fairley- If he's there, take him. Strong possibility that Carolina or Denver will select him though Bowers- is a 4-3 defensive end. We play a 3-4. While we play SOME 4-3, its not enough to warrant using our 1st round pick on him. I def don't wanna teach another DE how to play LB. Dareus- 4-3 DT/DE. While I believe this is the guy the Bills will choose come draft day, I don't think he is Elite. I believe he will be a good player, but I'd rather draft an OLB/MLB/DE later in the 1st round and add another 2nd round pick (or more). We have Williams. Troupe and Carrington were drafted in round 2 and 3 last year. I believe they are both going to be solid football players. That should be our DL in the coming years. Peterson/Amukamara - Cornerback. If denver passes on Peterson, I doubt we will. I'd personally rather draft Prince. Trade down a few spots and get him. Aj Green- WR. Gonna be a star for sure. We have Evans, Johnson, Roscoe, Nelson, Jones. before the season I hated our WR's. Now I think they are one of our strongest positions. Pass on WR. According to the "experts", anyone else selected would be a "reach" at #3. I know finding a team willing to give up a 1st and 2nd rounder may be difficult, I'd be happy with a 3rd and 4th as well. we need LOTS of help. Getting a 3rd and 4th rounder along with a pick 5-22 or so would benefit us more than #3. If we trade down, we can get 2(or 3 players) instead of 1. I really like the LB/DE that are pegged to be picked 5-50. Von Miller OLB Texas A&M 6-3 237 Aldon Smith OLB Missouri 6-4 258 Akeem Ayers OLB UCLA 6-4 255 1-2 Justin Houston OLB Georgia 6-3 258 1-2 Jeremy Beal OLB Oklahoma 6-2 268 Bruce Carter OLB North Carolina 6-3 235 Martez Wilson ILB Illinois 6-4 250 Greg Jones ILB Michigan State 6-0 240 Robert Quinn DE North Carolina 6-5 268 Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa 6-3 286 Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue 6-4 255 Cameron Heyward DE Ohio State 6-5 288 J.J. Watt DE Wisconsin 6-6 292 Cameron Jordan DE California 6-4 287 Are you guys THAT sold on someone that you wouldn't want to pass him up and trade down to get 2 players? Fairley is the only person in this years draft I'd be content with #3 overall, I just doubt he'll be there. I hope Carolina loves AJ Green and Champ retires and Denver takes Peterson If not, we should trade down. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 (edited) Once again. You need to have another team willing to trade up in order to trade down. It's not as easy as people make it seem. Trading the 3rd pick in the draft and settling for a mid 1st, 3rd, and 4th round pick just for the sake of trading down is retarded. Also, WR is no where near being good enough to ignore an obvious upgrade. Green instantly becomes the best WR on this team and our #1 for many years. Evans disappears in games. Stevie still has mental lapses with dropping the ball. Roscoe is a good slot guy. Nelson was solid lat year. Jones is nothing special and is a guy who is easily replaceable. Edited January 26, 2011 by Bangarang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 (edited) Once again. You need to have another team willing to trade up in order to trade down. It's not as easy as people make it seem. Trading the 3rd pick in the draft and settling for a mid 1st, 3rd, and 4th round pick just for the sake of trading down is retarded. Also, WR is no where near being good enough to ignore an obvious upgrade. Green instantly becomes the best WR on this team and our #1 for many years. Evans disappears in games. Stevie still has mental lapses with dropping the ball. Roscoe is a good slot guy. Nelson was solid lat year. Jones is nothing special and is a guy who is easily replaceable. Once again. I acknowledged the fact that it's not easy to find a trade partner. Why is getting a 5th-25th pick, 3rd, 4th for the 3rd overall such a bad move? Because the "value" of the later 1st 3rd and 4th isnt as great as the "value" of the 3rd, according to some equation? pssh. Think KC is thinking that? Drafting Tyson Jackson #3 overall because he was the best 3-4 de on the board was a mistake. If the player you are drafting #3 overall is an absolute can't miss prospect, I agree with you. Fairley/AJ Green/Peterson/Amakamura are the only can't miss guys in this draft imo. Fairley is the only of those that will help our run d, which IS our biggest problem. Last vs the run. LAST While I agree that our WR's arent amazing, they proved to be able to get the job done for the most part last year. Yeah, there were some drops. But there were also a lot of great catches from several young wr's that are only getting better. All of them have promise. And we still have the worst run d in the league. we may wanna address that. Edited January 27, 2011 by NewEra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The good news this year is that there is a limited number of NFL QB's in the draft, and a cluster of teams right below us who may want to leapfrog each other. Buffalo is sitting pretty. Look: Pick #3-Buffalo Pick #4-Cincinnati - Carson Palmer wanting out of Cincy, will grab Gabbert, the most NFL ready QB Pick #5-Arizona - QB is P1 Need, wants Gabbert, needs to leapfrog Cincy (500 pts. on trade chart=RD2 pick) Pick #7-San Francisco - QB is their P2 Need, (700 pts.=RD2 and either 3rd or 4th rounder) Pick #10-Washington - Rumor is that Snyder wants Newton. (900 pts. =RD2's this year and next) Pick #12-Minnesota - QB is their P1 Need, prefers Gabbert to Newton (1000 pts. = RD2 this year, RD1 next) The most conceivable leapfrog is Arizona, and I'd drop to pick 5 for their 2nd rounder. The simulation of that trade is something like this: 1-Marcell Dareus DE34 Alabama 2-Martez Wilson SILB Illinois 2-Jason Pinkston OG Pittsburgh 3-Luke Stocker TE Tennessee 4-Casey Matthews ILB Oregon 4-Lee Ziemba OT Auburn 5-Colin Kaepernick QB Nevada 6-Mike Blanc DE34 Auburn 7-Julius Thomas TE Portland St Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I think we should trade down until we own all 32 7th round picks. That is truly our drafting wheelhouse. Why waste precious high round picks? Let them go to teams who will put them to good use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Once again. I acknowledged the fact that it's not easy to find a trade partner. Why is getting a 5th-25th pick, 3rd, 4th for the 3rd overall such a bad move? Because the "value" of the later 1st 3rd and 4th isnt as great as the "value" of the 3rd, according to some equation? pssh. Think KC is thinking that? Drafting Tyson Jackson #3 overall because he was the best 3-4 de on the board was a mistake. If the player you are drafting #3 overall is an absolute can't miss prospect, I agree with you. Fairley/AJ Green/Peterson/Amakamura are the only can't miss guys in this draft imo. Fairley is the only of those that will help our run d, which IS our biggest problem. Last vs the run. LAST While I agree that our WR's arent amazing, they proved to be able to get the job done for the most part last year. Yeah, there were some drops. But there were also a lot of great catches from several young wr's that are only getting better. All of them have promise. And we still have the worst run d in the league. we may wanna address that. it's tough man..it's a no-brainer if Fairley is there, but i'm also big on Dareus and though he might not be that sexy of a pick, I think he'll be extremely successful in the NFL. I agree w/you as well that Bowers is best suited for a 4-3...but in actuality we ran a lot of 4-3 last year as well so who knows. Also, if Quinn WOWS everyone in the interviews and in the combine, I would have no problem taking him at #3 either. we'll have a better idea as the combine approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texasjute Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Understanding that we need LOTS of help on defense, I would still like to see us get a highly-ranked OT out of this draft. If there was a trade partner who would give up a second and we could get an OT, DL, and OLB out of the first two rounds, that would be a great way to start the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truth on hold Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 (edited) The good news this year is that there is a limited number of NFL QB's in the draft, and a cluster of teams right below us who may want to leapfrog each other. Buffalo is sitting pretty. Look: Pick #3-Buffalo Pick #4-Cincinnati - Carson Palmer wanting out of Cincy, will grab Gabbert, the most NFL ready QB Pick #5-Arizona - QB is P1 Need, wants Gabbert, needs to leapfrog Cincy (500 pts. on trade chart=RD2 pick) Pick #7-San Francisco - QB is their P2 Need, (700 pts.=RD2 and either 3rd or 4th rounder) Pick #10-Washington - Rumor is that Snyder wants Newton. (900 pts. =RD2's this year and next) Pick #12-Minnesota - QB is their P1 Need, prefers Gabbert to Newton (1000 pts. = RD2 this year, RD1 next) Some of those QB needs will be satisfied in FA with McNabb, Palmer and Kolb. That seriously lowers the odds of any one team giving up much to trade up. Edited January 27, 2011 by Joe_the_6_pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djrocks Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 if we aren't sold on Blaine Gabbert. No other QB is worth it, imo. While I think Newton may become special, it's a gamble I wouldn't want to take. The highest rated players on the board when we select, either, don't fit our system or play a position that we shouldn't be addressing with the number 3 overall selections. Fairley- If he's there, take him. Strong possibility that Carolina or Denver will select him though Bowers- is a 4-3 defensive end. We play a 3-4. While we play SOME 4-3, its not enough to warrant using our 1st round pick on him. I def don't wanna teach another DE how to play LB. Dareus- 4-3 DT/DE. While I believe this is the guy the Bills will choose come draft day, I don't think he is Elite. I believe he will be a good player, but I'd rather draft an OLB/MLB/DE later in the 1st round and add another 2nd round pick (or more). We have Williams. Troupe and Carrington were drafted in round 2 and 3 last year. I believe they are both going to be solid football players. That should be our DL in the coming years. Peterson/Amukamara - Cornerback. If denver passes on Peterson, I doubt we will. I'd personally rather draft Prince. Trade down a few spots and get him. Aj Green- WR. Gonna be a star for sure. We have Evans, Johnson, Roscoe, Nelson, Jones. before the season I hated our WR's. Now I think they are one of our strongest positions. Pass on WR. According to the "experts", anyone else selected would be a "reach" at #3. I know finding a team willing to give up a 1st and 2nd rounder may be difficult, I'd be happy with a 3rd and 4th as well. we need LOTS of help. Getting a 3rd and 4th rounder along with a pick 5-22 or so would benefit us more than #3. If we trade down, we can get 2(or 3 players) instead of 1. I really like the LB/DE that are pegged to be picked 5-50. Von Miller OLB Texas A&M 6-3 237 Aldon Smith OLB Missouri 6-4 258 Akeem Ayers OLB UCLA 6-4 255 1-2 Justin Houston OLB Georgia 6-3 258 1-2 Jeremy Beal OLB Oklahoma 6-2 268 Bruce Carter OLB North Carolina 6-3 235 Martez Wilson ILB Illinois 6-4 250 Greg Jones ILB Michigan State 6-0 240 Robert Quinn DE North Carolina 6-5 268 Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa 6-3 286 Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue 6-4 255 Cameron Heyward DE Ohio State 6-5 288 J.J. Watt DE Wisconsin 6-6 292 Cameron Jordan DE California 6-4 287 Are you guys THAT sold on someone that you wouldn't want to pass him up and trade down to get 2 players? Fairley is the only person in this years draft I'd be content with #3 overall, I just doubt he'll be there. I hope Carolina loves AJ Green and Champ retires and Denver takes Peterson If not, we should trade down. Thoughts? \ you are way off in your understanding of the value of our pick. to stay in the top 10 a team would have to swap firsts and easily include a second round pick and most likely more. anyone after 10 would have to give up their first along with their second third and a player. go look at the trade value chart. the least we would get for dropping down 5 spots would be an additional second round pick after 10 its a bevy of players and picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragonborn10 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It is the best thing to do in every draft virtually every chance you get. See the Patriots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thoner7 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looking at the draft order, 3 teams that like to wheel and deal pick between 9-12 in Dallas, Washington, and Minnesota. If we accepted a trade with Dallas say (who is the highest picking team of the 3), getting their 1st and 2nd for our 3rd, that gives THEM a steal of 350 points, which is equivelant to the 23rd pick in the 2nd round. Now, for the most part that trade chart is followed fairly closely. But, IMO that trade is a GREAT move for Buffalo. That extra 2nd could be a TE, OT, or LB that comes in and starts. Meanwhile the 9th pick in the draft could easily be Quinn or C. Jordan or Carimi. At the end of the day, Quinn or Jordan could actually be better than Dareus anyways! So, while trade partners are hard to find, by giving them a "steal" we may intice a team that likes to trade anyways. Thats a move I would be DYING to make if I am buddy nix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beebe's Kid Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Those points get mentioned every year, and the only people that swear by them are all on message boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 As long as we go defense I think we get a good player and I really like the thought of trading down...... The other player that is growing on me is QB Dalton......2 second round picks this year sound really good...... 1st (in a tradedown) Robert Quinn 2nd QB Dalton 2nd OT Marcus Cannon 3rd Best LB available 3rd Best LB available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 As long as we go defense I think we get a good player and I really like the thought of trading down...... The other player that is growing on me is QB Dalton......2 second round picks this year sound really good...... 1st (in a tradedown) Robert Quinn 2nd QB Dalton 2nd OT Marcus Cannon 3rd Best LB available 3rd Best LB available Are you serious with drafting Dalton in the 2nd round? The guy is beyond average. Doesn't have ideal size. Doesn't have a strong arm. Is a ginger. He's a career backup. Drafting him the 2nd is severely overdrafting. Especially when our 2nd round pick is basically high enough so it's like having another 1st round pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 (edited) Nix said, "To answer the question of third pick, whoever is there that we think is going to be a franchise impact player for us is the guy we'll draft. Where anybody thinks it makes sense [in terms of position], it doesn't matter to me. If it's a guy that we think long-term's an impact guy, no matter what the position, we'll take him." Nix isn't even posturing that they are going to trade that pick or take a player that another team may want. If they think someone (Cam Newton\Ryan Mallet) is "the man" they are going to take him weather Kiper or McShay think he should go 3rd or not. Although trading down would be prudent if Fairely is gone imo, they most likely could have traded down with San Diego last year and didn't do it, so with no sure fire studs that a team would be willing to give up the high cost to trade up to #3 I'm not getting my hopes up for a trade down in 2011. Edited January 27, 2011 by Why So Serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qdawg in philly Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The good news this year is that there is a limited number of NFL QB's in the draft, and a cluster of teams right below us who may want to leapfrog each other. Buffalo is sitting pretty. Look: Pick #3-Buffalo Pick #4-Cincinnati - Carson Palmer wanting out of Cincy, will grab Gabbert, the most NFL ready QB Pick #5-Arizona - QB is P1 Need, wants Gabbert, needs to leapfrog Cincy (500 pts. on trade chart=RD2 pick) Pick #7-San Francisco - QB is their P2 Need, (700 pts.=RD2 and either 3rd or 4th rounder) Pick #10-Washington - Rumor is that Snyder wants Newton. (900 pts. =RD2's this year and next) Pick #12-Minnesota - QB is their P1 Need, prefers Gabbert to Newton (1000 pts. = RD2 this year, RD1 next) The most conceivable leapfrog is Arizona, and I'd drop to pick 5 for their 2nd rounder. The simulation of that trade is something like this: 1-Marcell Dareus DE34 Alabama 2-Martez Wilson SILB Illinois 2-Jason Pinkston OG Pittsburgh 3-Luke Stocker TE Tennessee 4-Casey Matthews ILB Oregon 4-Lee Ziemba OT Auburn 5-Colin Kaepernick QB Nevada 6-Mike Blanc DE34 Auburn 7-Julius Thomas TE Portland St Astrobot, I usually agree with your mocks, but we need more ILBs. We can't assume we'll get any in FA. And why an OG? We have good depth at that position! I want Phil Taylor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Once again. You need to have another team willing to trade up in order to trade down. It's not as easy as people make it seem. Trading the 3rd pick in the draft and settling for a mid 1st, 3rd, and 4th round pick just for the sake of trading down is retarded. Also, WR is no where near being good enough to ignore an obvious upgrade. Green instantly becomes the best WR on this team and our #1 for many years. Evans disappears in games. Stevie still has mental lapses with dropping the ball. Roscoe is a good slot guy. Nelson was solid lat year. Jones is nothing special and is a guy who is easily replaceable. A couple of things. - First you are right that it is never easy to trade down and the bills shouldn't be trading down for anything more then a few spots and for anything less then a 2nd round pick......BUT if they get the slotting system in place that 3rd round pick is gonna look a lot more attractive.....especially to a team looking to take a QB. - Second instead of taking another number 1 receiver what they should be doing is paying out to bring in a starting caliber tight end....people were talking about how the offense became less potent when we lost Evans.....when it REALLY became less potent is when we lost Nelson who was in affect playing the Tight End position....especially in red zone offense. If we fixed THAT area of our recievers then another number one on a wideout would not be needed because you have Evans over the top and Johnson catching underneath...... We need defense so bad it is so obvious.....guys that can make a difference on defense and actually stop a running play....I dont care if its Fairley, Bowers, Darius, or Quinn but we need ONE of those guys with that first pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akm0404 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 When will you guys finally realize that the Bills will never trade down? First, it's hard. It take a lot of creativity, flexibility and smart, dynamic members of your war room ready to wheel and deal. We have a bunch of old fogies who can only think on the first level, who plan out their draft using concrete, inflexible if/then scenarios to keep the pressure down. That is how we are constantly able to run our card up to the podium the minute we are on the clock. Rarely, we can shoehorn in a trade up, because we get our inflexible plan set on one guy, and it's much easier to do the trading up than the trading down. Still a rarity though. And also to the OP who claimed that he'd be happy if the Bills traded the #3 pick for #25 and a 3rd and 4th - hahahahahahhaahha. Thank god you don't run the draft - not that our cast of characters is that much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muggins Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 This has already been discussed in the previous thread where it was shown that trading down in the top 5 is very, very, very rare and even if we did do it we'd likely end up with a raw deal. Please stop making threads like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 (edited) \ you are way off in your understanding of the value of our pick. to stay in the top 10 a team would have to swap firsts and easily include a second round pick and most likely more. anyone after 10 would have to give up their first along with their second third and a player. go look at the trade value chart. the least we would get for dropping down 5 spots would be an additional second round pick after 10 its a bevy of players and picks. Actually, I understand it just fine. I'm saying if there isn't a trade partner that will give us the "value" we should get in return, acquiring an extra 3rd 4th and maybe more would still be worth it. I'm not a believer that the NFL draft is a mathematical equation. The value system is a joke. Your telling me that acquiring a 3rd, 4th 5th and a 3rd next year isn't worth trading down 5 spots? According to the "chart" we arent getting "value". Thats a joke. Each draft the value should be different based on the talent in the draft. Last years #2 shouldve been worth twice as much as #2 this year. In fact, it should be worth twice as much as the number 1 last year. Suh> everyone in this draft. If you can get 3, 4 or 5 players that can help the team rather than 1, it's a good trade. Obv if that one player is the rare superstar that leads the team to the playoffs every year, then it may not be worth it. I just don't see us drafting THAT guy with th 3rd pick this year. It's possible to get a top 5 player anywhere in the 1st round. Its possible to get pro bowlers in Rd 2-7. The more picks the better. F "value" Looking at the draft order, 3 teams that like to wheel and deal pick between 9-12 in Dallas, Washington, and Minnesota. If we accepted a trade with Dallas say (who is the highest picking team of the 3), getting their 1st and 2nd for our 3rd, that gives THEM a steal of 350 points, which is equivelant to the 23rd pick in the 2nd round. Now, for the most part that trade chart is followed fairly closely. But, IMO that trade is a GREAT move for Buffalo. That extra 2nd could be a TE, OT, or LB that comes in and starts. Meanwhile the 9th pick in the draft could easily be Quinn or C. Jordan or Carimi. At the end of the day, Quinn or Jordan could actually be better than Dareus anyways! So, while trade partners are hard to find, by giving them a "steal" we may intice a team that likes to trade anyways. Thats a move I would be DYING to make if I am buddy nix. Agree completely Edited January 27, 2011 by NewEra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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