Trade DOWN

[NewEra]

This has already been discussed in the previous thread where it was shown that trading down in the top 5 is very, very, very rare and even if we did do it we'd likely end up with a raw deal.

 

Please stop making threads like this.

 

Every thread on this board was discussed in a previous thread. Get over yourself.

 

Trading down can very well happen if we overlook the point value of the picks. I would definitely trade down anywhere in the top 10 if we could get a plethora of picks. The trades rarely happen because teams don't wanna trade their 2nd round pick. If we only trade down 1-7 spots, I'd be excited about getting 3rd 4th and others in return. Each draft is based on the team needs and the players available, not a pick "point system". In this draft, there are players that will be drafted 4-10 that will help our team as much, if not more that te guy we'd take at 3. Plus we get more picks.

 

Just so it's clear....

 

I understand it's not easy to find a trade partner

 

I understand it's not easy to find a trade partner

 

I understand it's not easy to find a trade partner

 

 

That doesn't make it impossible, and that we shouldn't try.

[tennesseeboy]

Boy there are really some good players that can help us between about 5 and 50 so a good trade down option may be the way to go. Peterson and AJ Green must have some teams chomping at the bit to trade up...but we'll just have to see what is being offered. If not, we should get the best DE, DT, OLB or OT available. Its not that we are short on needs and only two players are going ahead of us.

[dutchboy25]

Look no way we trade down just to play it safe, If its in the teams best interest to do it, yeah but, not just for the sake of doing it. No way ! I wish there was an elite QB or fairley would drop to us but, its just not happening. I know WR is not bad for us but, if AJ Green is a sure stud then we should take him! Period! The Lions did not need another WR when they took Calvin Johnson, the Vikes did not need another RB when they took Peterson but, those were the best players there and they are stars. Evans is just not a #1 WR he gets taken out of games to often. I love our young core and green would make them all that much better. We need D line,O line and a QB more but, Im tired of watching this team reach on our #1 picks for need instead of talent! way to many crap players. WE NEED PLAY MAKERS!!!!!!!!

[muggins]

Every thread on this board was discussed in a previous thread. Get over yourself.

 

Trading down can very well happen if we overlook the point value of the picks. I would definitely trade down anywhere in the top 10 if we could get a plethora of picks. The trades rarely happen because teams don't wanna trade their 2nd round pick. If we only trade down 1-7 spots, I'd be excited about getting 3rd 4th and others in return. Each draft is based on the team needs and the players available, not a pick "point system". In this draft, there are players that will be drafted 4-10 that will help our team as much, if not more that te guy we'd take at 3. Plus we get more picks.

If it is immediately obvious to 99% of Bills fans (where 75% of those only understand the game and the business very little) that we should trade down, how obvious do you think it is to Jerruh Jones and the other teams that people are proposing will trade with us?

Edited January 27, 2011 by mugginns12

[JohnFina]

Everyone (In favor of drafting our 3rd pick)keeps saying we need to take the best DE/ILB/OG available. The problem being if we don't trade down you already know who were going to pick... The last person in the draft we want!! I can see it now with the 3rd pick in the 2011 NFL draft the Buffalo Bills Select... Von Miller OLB Texas A&M... or Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri. I truly pray that we do pick Best Player Available. I know that's what nix is saying, but I am already getting ready to pull my hair out. Typically I'm as positive as they come, but the way we've drafted the last few years, just makes the 3rd overall pick scarier and scarier the more I think about it. Personally, I agree with you guys who are saying to take the best pass rushing big son of a B word available, but we all know whats gonna happen. I'm expecting the worse, hoping for the best... I just pray we don't go QB #3 overall... God Help Us!

[bobobonators]

It is the best thing to do in every draft virtually every chance you get. See the Patriots.

 

With all due respect, the patriots haven't drafted once in the top 5 in the last decade. The closest they came was in 2001 when they picked 6th overall, and they didn't trade down, they drafted Seymour.

 

It's a lot easier to trade down when youre picking 20th than it is when you're picking 3rd. Also the talent drop off from the top 5 to 20 as compared from 20 to 30, etc. should not be understated.

 

I would stand pat at #3 and just pick the best player we feeel is there.

[1B4IDie]

With all due respect, the patriots haven't drafted once in the top 5 in the last decade. The closest they came was in 2001 when they picked 6th overall, and they didn't trade down, they drafted Seymour.

 

It's a lot easier to trade down when youre picking 20th than it is when you're picking 3rd. Also the talent drop off from the top 5 to 20 as compared from 20 to 30, etc. should not be understated.

 

I would stand pat at #3 and just pick the best player we feeel is there.

I respect your position but it's basically February 2011 the draft is in 90 days. We're heading out of the realm of Hypathetical. Who do you want the Bills to take at #3?

Edited January 28, 2011 by Why So Serious?

[bobobonators]

I respect your position but it's basically February 2011 the draft is in 90 days. We're heading out of the realm of Hypathetical. Who do you want the Bills to take at #3?

 

Fairley, Dareus, Bowers. One of those three will be available. I'd be fine with any, in that order too. I'll wait until the combine to see more of Quinn as well.

 

The only pick that I would be a little "eh" on would be AJ Green, though I realize he's an amazing talent.

Edited January 28, 2011 by bobobonators

[jwhit34]

If you look at the trade value chart (link: http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php), the ideal trade candidate is the Patriots, who own the 17th, 28th and 33rd picks:

 

Bills' 1st (#3 overall): 2,200 points

 

Patriots picks #17: 950, #28: 660 and #33: 580 points, respectively, for a total of 2,190.

 

Now, the chances of that happening are probably zilch, but if the Pats really wanted that impact player like Green to pair with Brady they might do it. Remember, although they traditionally trade down, they also amass picks so if they want to trade up they can. They would still have their own 2nd and two 3s.

 

That would be fantastic for the Bills. They would have 4 picks between 17-34. Of course, Green if Green goes to the Pats and is the 2nd coming of Jerry Rice we get to see that twice a year for the next 12 years.

[1B4IDie]

If you look at the trade value chart (link: http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php), the ideal trade candidate is the Patriots, who own the 17th, 28th and 33rd picks:

 

Bills' 1st (#3 overall): 2,200 points

 

Patriots picks #17: 950, #28: 660 and #33: 580 points, respectively, for a total of 2,190.

 

Now, the chances of that happening are probably zilch, but if the Pats really wanted that impact player like Green to pair with Brady they might do it. Remember, although they traditionally trade down, they also amass picks so if they want to trade up they can. They would still have their own 2nd and two 3s.

 

That would be fantastic for the Bills. They would have 4 picks between 17-34. Of course, Green if Green goes to the Pats and is the 2nd coming of Jerry Rice we get to see that twice a year for the next 12 years.

Not likely the difference between aj green, Julio Jones, and Jon Baldwin is minimal one if them will be there At 17 if they want a playmaker.

[BillsPhan]

....While I think Newton may become special, it's a gamble I wouldn't want to take....

Thoughts?

 

I read and respected your entire informational post, especially your research on those players. Don't get me wrong, I'm not dissing your excellent opinion here. But your first sentence of the entire observation I've left in place above just amazes me. We are fans of a team that has not had a true franchise QB in his prime since Jim Kelly retired.....14 years ago next month! I won't waste your time or mine to list the QB's the Bills' deep thinkers have had a chance to draft but passed over since then. Rest assured there have been many Pro Bowler on that list.

 

With Fitzy as the incoming starter and basically NOBODY as his back up, here most of us are on this board still ignoring the chance to draft a franchise QB. Not only Newton, but Gabbert, Locker, Mallett and even a couple others all have a decent to good chance to become this year's Flacco, Ryan, Bradford or even the ever improving Tim Tebow.

 

My take will not change. As long as Buddy drafts the type of quality players you and others list with that number 3 or trading it down, the Bills will be fine. I'm not going to argue how much the Bills need defensive players and a few more offensive linemen. HOWEVER, my humble opinion remains that Buddy should draft the very best QB on his board with that number 3 pick, because I simply don't believe the Bills will ever win a SB without a special QB.

 

It's funny really. Last year at this time when I was calling for Buddy to draft the best QB on his board with his number 9 pick, almost everybody said I was nuts and the Bills would get their franchise QB "next year" with so many good ones that will be available. "Next year" has arrived, and now that Andrew Luck has opted to stay in school, almost everybody is chanting the same crap as they did last year, that no other QB is "worth the reach" at #3.

 

If Buddy would have taken my advice and drafted Tebow at #9, he would be heading into this season as the Bills' starting franchise QB, with his amazing character and amazing drive and desire to continue to make himself into the best QB in the NFL. Instead, he's all that for Denver, who did use their 1st round pick to draft him, and here all of you are again deciding that Cam Newton, who is bigger, stronger and more naturally talented then Tebow, is not "worth the risk."

 

Again, simply amazing. Since Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson rode along for the ride as the starters for the Ravens and Bucs SB winning teams earlier this decade because both of those teams had the best defenses in the NFL those years along with great running games, please take a look at the other SB winners' starting QB's:

2001: Tom Brady (Luckiest 6th round draft choice, or any rounds' draft choice for that matter, in the history of the NFL.)

2003: Tom Brady

2004: Tom Brady

2005: Ben Roethlisberger (1st round draft choice)

2006: Peyton Manning (#1 pick of his draft)

2007: Eli Manning (#1 pick of his draft)

2008: Ben Roethlisberger

2009: Drew Brees (High 2nd round draft choice)

2010: ? (Either Ben Roethlisberger or Aaron Rogers-Aaron was a 1st round draft choice)

 

So throw out Brady, and do we detect a pattern there?

[1B4IDie]

I read and respected your entire informational post, especially your research on those players. Don't get me wrong, I'm not dissing your excellent opinion here. But your first sentence of the entire observation I've left in place above just amazes me. We are fans of a team that has not had a true franchise QB in his prime since Jim Kelly retired.....14 years ago next month! I won't waste your time or mine to list the QB's the Bills' deep thinkers have had a chance to draft but passed over since then. Rest assured there have been many Pro Bowler on that list.

 

With Fitzy as the incoming starter and basically NOBODY as his back up, here most of us are on this board still ignoring the chance to draft a franchise QB. Not only Newton, but Gabbert, Locker, Mallett and even a couple others all have a decent to good chance to become this year's Flacco, Ryan, Bradford or even the ever improving Tim Tebow.

 

My take will not change. As long as Buddy drafts the type of quality players you and others list with that number 3 or trading it down, the Bills will be fine. I'm not going to argue how much the Bills need defensive players and a few more offensive linemen. HOWEVER, my humble opinion remains that Buddy should draft the very best QB on his board with that number 3 pick, because I simply don't believe the Bills will ever win a SB without a special QB.

 

It's funny really. Last year at this time when I was calling for Buddy to draft the best QB on his board with his number 9 pick, almost everybody said I was nuts and the Bills would get their franchise QB "next year" with so many good ones that will be available. "Next year" has arrived, and now that Andrew Luck has opted to stay in school, almost everybody is chanting the same crap as they did last year, that no other QB is "worth the reach" at #3.

 

If Buddy would have taken my advice and drafted Tebow at #9, he would be heading into this season as the Bills' starting franchise QB, with his amazing character and amazing drive and desire to continue to make himself into the best QB in the NFL. Instead, he's all that for Denver, who did use their 1st round pick to draft him, and here all of you are again deciding that Cam Newton, who is bigger, stronger and more naturally talented then Tebow, is not "worth the risk."

 

Again, simply amazing. Since Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson rode along for the ride as the starters for the Ravens and Bucs SB winning teams earlier this decade because both of those teams had the best defenses in the NFL those years along with great running games, please take a look at the other SB winners' starting QB's:

2001: Tom Brady (Luckiest 6th round draft choice, or any rounds' draft choice for that matter, in the history of the NFL.)

2003: Tom Brady

2004: Tom Brady

2005: Ben Roethlisberger (1st round draft choice)

2006: Peyton Manning (#1 pick of his draft)

2007: Eli Manning (#1 pick of his draft)

2008: Ben Roethlisberger

2009: Drew Brees (High 2nd round draft choice)

2010: ? (Either Ben Roethlisberger or Aaron Rogers-Aaron was a 1st round draft choice)

 

So throw out Brady, and do we detect a pattern there?

You are right on.

The good news is Buddy Nix said during Senior Bowl week we are going to draft the player we think is a franchise changing player (Cam Newton, Ryan Mallet) no matter what so called experts (McShay Kiper draftnicks) think they should be drafted.

 

On top of that the 2012 draft class is super weak QB class after Luck you have Barkley that is too tiny to be an NFL QB and then a whole bunch of players that need a lot of work.

 

Ryan Mallet and Cam Newton would have both gone in front of Tebow last year as well as Blaine (which I think is a figment of McShay's imagination) and all three would go after Luck next year.

 

If a QB is "the man" there is no such thing as a "reach".

 

Cam Newton = Tim Tebow + NFL throwing motion - missionary trips.

 

BTW since 1991 there are only 4 QBs that were not drafted in the first 32 picks you have one the Super Bowl Warner, Hostetler (Simms was 1st round) Rypien, and Brady.

And given the likely top teams in the NFL the next couple of years the days of a new sixth round pick winning a Super Bowl are going to be even less likely.

Edited January 28, 2011 by Why So Serious?

[Gugny]

Fairley, Dareus, Bowers. One of those three will be available. I'd be fine with any, in that order too. I'll wait until the combine to see more of Quinn as well.

 

The only pick that I would be a little "eh" on would be AJ Green, though I realize he's an amazing talent.

Exactly, and exactly.