Let the speculaiton begin - Cam Newton

[Guest three3]

But if we think he is worthy of a #3 pick, and Arizona thinks hes worthy of a #5, then how much of a "reach" is it?

 

And more importantly, who is determining these exact players' values for you to say he's a reach there? Especially if 2 teams would pick him around the same spot? Does it need to be a 32 team consensus?

 

 

 

You originally said that if we want him, we should trade back to #10. If we do, and he goes at #5, then what? We end up settling for a player we werent that excited about just to pick up an extra 3rd round pick?

 

Doesnt make much sense to me. Sounds like we're being too tricky and shooting ourselves in the foot.

 

 

he is not worthy of the 3rd pick. i think most of us agree with that statement. i hope buddy nix agrees with us. most intelligent football observers have cam slotted around the 10th to 15th pick. why take him at 3 or even 5 when his real value is 10 to 15? you are not maximizing the value of your picks if you spend a top 5 on cam.

 

and if we trade back to 10 only to see arizona take him at 5 then so be it. let arizona risk such a high value pick on a player who, most of us agree, should not be taken in the top 5. so we are stuck with the 10th pick at that point. that's where buddy picks up the phone(i'm assuming ralph will break down and pay the long distance charges on draft day) and flips #10 into a lot more picks or goes with plan B: pick another player worthy of a top 10 selection

[RuntheDamnBall]

he is not worthy of the 3rd pick. i think most of us agree with that statement. i hope buddy nix agrees with us. most intelligent football observers have cam slotted around the 10th to 15th pick. why take him at 3 or even 5 when his real value is 10 to 15? you are not maximizing the value of your picks if you spend a top 5 on cam.

 

and if we trade back to 10 only to see arizona take him at 5 then so be it. let arizona risk such a high value pick on a player who, most of us agree, should not be taken in the top 5. so we are stuck with the 10th pick at that point. that's where buddy picks up the phone(i'm assuming ralph will break down and pay the long distance charges on draft day) and flips #10 into a lot more picks or goes with plan B: pick another player worthy of a top 10 selection

He's worth as high a pick as anyone will spend on him. The trick is to exploit that if YOU wouldn't spend that much on him and you're in a position of power.

[DrDawkinstein]

he is not worthy of the 3rd pick.

 

Says you and your unresearched opinion.

 

i think most of us agree with that statement.

I dont and I know of others who dont as well.

 

i hope buddy nix agrees with us.

Thats for him to decide after watching all the film possible, discussing it with his Scouts and Coaches, and watching Cam personally at the Combine and interviewing him 1-on-1

 

most intelligent football observers have cam slotted around the 10th to 15th pick.

Who and based on what criteria?

 

why take him at 3 or even 5 when his real value is 10 to 15? you are not maximizing the value of your picks if you spend a top 5 on cam.

 

What "value"? So we should take a CB at #3 over Newton because it's "widely believed" by a bunch of draft "experts" that CB is the pick with the most value there?

 

And who are we trading down with?

 

Sorry, not a fan of this plan at all. Only thing you are setting yourself up for is getting screwed when your player isnt there.

 

If they want to take a DL at #3, and then trade BACK INTO the 1st round and get Cam at #10, then that's fine. But trading down just because Mel Kiper says that pick is only worth so many points is just a ridiculous way to run a team.

[nucci]

Todd MCBeth on ESBN today did not have many good things to say about Newton as an NFL QB. He said he is not accurate in the pocket and Auburns offense is not similar to the NFL. He also questioned Newton's maturity

 

My brother frequents several sports bars and he gets alot of good info. He says the Bills will take Newton in the first round. I hope he is wrong, but he usually right

[Maddog69]

He's worth as high a pick as anyone will spend on him. The trick is to exploit that if YOU wouldn't spend that much on him and you're in a position of power.

 

EXACTLY.

All it takes is for one team to have a higher grade on a guy than everyone else and then the pundits scream "reach" while the team with the high grade on him is thrilled to have him.

 

In the case of Newton, if the general consensus is that he is rated between 10-15 on most boards, what if that Bills automatically eliminate 5 of those players due to injury, character, drugs or whatever other reason? Then Newton could be #5 on their board. Would taking him at 3 be such a stretch?

 

I am not saying I think he is worthy of the 3rd pick. I have no clue. Just saying that these rankings are very subjective.

[Guest three3]

He's worth as high a pick as anyone will spend on him. The trick is to exploit that if YOU wouldn't spend that much on him and you're in a position of power.

 

just because someone reaches for a player at #5 does not mean that is the player's worth. the number a player is taken at is not the definition of the player's worth. just because ryan leaf was taken at #2 overall by the chargers it does not mean that he was WORTH taking at #2

Edited January 14, 2011 by three3

[Scraps]

Todd MCBeth on ESBN today did not have many good things to say about Newton as an NFL QB. He said he is not accurate in the pocket and Auburns offense is not similar to the NFL. He also questioned Newton's maturity

 

My brother frequents several sports bars and he gets alot of good info. He says the Bills will take Newton in the first round. I hope he is wrong, but he usually right

 

Did you brother have the Bills picking Maybin?

[DrDawkinstein]

just because someone reaches for a player at #5 does not mean that is the player's worth. the number a player is taken at is not the definition of the player's worth. just because a team reaches for a player does not mean the the player is all of a sudden worthy of such a high selection. just because ryan leaf was taken at #2 overall by the chargers it does not mean that he was WORTH taking at #2

 

Unfortunately, there is no way of knowing how a player will actually do until at least a few years AFTER he is drafted. And by then, his perceived "worth" on draft day is completely irrelevant.

 

Based on your previously stated criteria for these values (that being, "the experts say so"), Ryan Leaf WAS INDEED worth the #2 pick. A LOT of draft experts had him ranked that high, and some even had him over Manning at #1.

 

So again, what does that say about your "values" and their significance? They dont mean anything, that's what.

 

 

These "Pick Position Values" and "Player Rankings" are completely fabricated by the talking head draft "experts" (lol) for no other reason than the fact that they have 4 months of down time and MUST come up with something to talk about between January and the Draft.

 

Once the draft gets rolling, these rankings go right out the window. Im sure youve watched a draft before, so you must have seen exactly what Im talking about.

 

We have this discussion every offseason on the board, and every year it's proven that these arbitrary numbers and values are completely worthless.

 

There are only 32 people whose opinions actually matter, and they are the GMs of the NFL. And right now, NO ONE has ANY idea what they are thinking.

Edited January 14, 2011 by DrDankenstein

[Dr. Fong]

Just say "no" to a QB in round 1. I don't care who it is. Both lines have been neglected for far too long. A new QB won't fix that.

[offyourocker]

Not sure of the validity of this but I live in Charleston SC. They have a sport talk show I was listening to yesterday. They cover the Gamecocks, SEC in general and the Panthers pretty heavily. One guy was saying that there is no doubt the panthers were going to pick Newtown. He stated that he has solid contacts with Panthers.

[Maddog69]

Just say "no" to a QB in round 1. I don't care who it is. Both lines have been neglected for far too long. A new QB won't fix that.

several first, second and third round picks have been used on both lines recently (Maybin, Wood, Levitre, Troup, Carrington)

 

Throwing picks at the lines doesn't necessarily fix the problem. But you cannot argue that they have not tried.

 

The cannot afford to "just say no" to anybody in round 1. They should and will take the best available player, whether that be QB, OL, DL, LB or whatever. The only think I feel pretty confident about is that they won't take a RB (1: there are any that are that highly rated and 2. I think they learned from last years mistake)

Edited January 14, 2011 by Maddog69

[Ramius]

"Draft value" is meaningless. Ask how the Colts feel about not getting appropriate value when they "reached" for Dwight Freeney. I'll see if i can dig up my spiel on draft value from a few years back.

[....lybob]

my Hope is that Gabbert goes 1st to Carolina, next Peterson to Denver- Then Ari, SF, and Ten start tripping over themselves to get our pick for Cam Newton- we get extra picks and still get Fairley or Dareus.

[VABills]

Does Cam Newton = Vince Young?

[Scraps]

Does Cam Newton = Vince Young?

On the big stage, Vince Young was far more impressive to me.

[Endless Ike]

So Nix wants to go back on his word and draft a one-year wonder? Or... he'll draft a guy who played in the Big 10 with the 87th best YPA in college football this year. Them's the options at #3?

 

Yuck.

 

 

1) Mallett is NOT a one year wonder

 

He threw for 30 TDs in 2009

 

2) Missouri is not in the Big 10 (not yet, anyway)

 

Maybe you shouldn't talk about prospects or college football in general since it's pretty obvious you don't have a !@#$ing clue.

 

my Hope is that Gabbert goes 1st to Carolina, next Peterson to Denver- Then Ari, SF, and Ten start tripping over themselves to get our pick for Cam Newton- we get extra picks and still get Fairley or Dareus.

 

 

God, this is wrong in about 5 different ways, but keep hoping for that...

Edited January 15, 2011 by Endless Ike

[Bills99999]

WHOA WHOA WHOA

 

I saw that clip too and McShay had plenty of good things to say about Newton. He did a Pros and Cons list. Not just bad things.

 

The Cons were:

1. His current accuracy (not his arm) is a little less than where it needs to be, which McShay said could be worked on and developed through better footwork over the next few years.

2. That his Mental makeup was a large unknown at this point. But that NFL GMs would be working hard to get into his head and see where he is at right now. So it might turn out that the kid is focused and looking forward to working hard at a career in the NFL.

 

As for your constant mentioning of this "Sports Bar Brother"...

 

 

I guess I am so anti-Newton that I just heard what I wanted to hear.

 

As far as my brother goes, he is almost always right. He is not a sports gambler, but if he were, he would make huge money. My brother is on disability, so he has plenty of time to study sports and talk to other drunks in sports bars who have nothing better to do. I talked to him about posting here, but he says posting on forums is for chumps. He called me a chump

 

 

Are those sports bars packed with NFL scouts and GMs?

 

 

No, but alot of these guys personally knowscouts and GM's

 

not really. you want to see how players perform under the ultimate collegiate pressure, the brightest spotlight. that's what matters. does he crumble under pressure or step up and play his best game when all the chips are down. cam did neither.

 

 

If Oregon had Auburn's DL, it would have been a completely different game

 

No, its incredibly short-sighted, lazy, and down right ignorant to try to judge a player based ONLY on one game. No matter the importance of that game.

 

If you want to make it a part of the entire package of research, fine.

 

My point is that there are a large number of posters who only saw Newton once this year in that Championship game, and are forming their entire opinion off of it.

 

 

I only saw him play twice, but I did see a picture of his laptop

[Mr_Blizzard]

The Buffalo Bills will take a hard look at Newton with the third overall choice.

 

Bills head coach Chan Gailey supports Ryan Fitzpatrick as his leader moving forward. But Bills general manager Buddy Nix might not agree, and owner Ralph Wilson will make the final call. If Wilson demands a quarterback, then the Bills will draft a quarterback. The options would appear to be Newton or Missouri's Blaine Gabbert.

 

No

[Bills99999]

Did you brother have the Bills picking Maybin?

 

No

 

That pick was WAAAAAY out of left field

 

Nostrdamus and Miss Cleo missed it too

[RuntheDamnBall]

just because someone reaches for a player at #5 does not mean that is the player's worth. the number a player is taken at is not the definition of the player's worth. just because ryan leaf was taken at #2 overall by the chargers it does not mean that he was WORTH taking at #2

He was worth that, in that draft. It's like your house. If someone gave you $500,000 for it, even if you think it's worth $100K, it's worth $500K on that day. Now, when the sucker who bought it tries to sell it on the open market, it's of course not worth that. But you have to look at the draft as a scenario where you're willing to spend certain assets to obtain others, and if you can benefit from the people who are really overvaluing something in your opinion, you jump at the opportunity. Likewise, if you see an undervalued asset, you take it, even if it doesn't look good to others, because you know better.

 

Gauging that is the hard work.

 

1) Mallett is NOT a one year wonder

 

He threw for 30 TDs in 2009

 

2) Missouri is not in the Big 10 (not yet, anyway)

 

Maybe you shouldn't talk about prospects or college football in general since it's pretty obvious you don't have a !@#$ing clue.

I messed up on Missouri - got my black and yellow confused and was thinking Iowa when I wrote that. Obviously a bad brain fart on my part. I'm not going around telling other people they don't have a !@#$ing clue, though. Regardless, Gabbert's YPA sucked this year. Care to argue this?

 

As for point #1, I was talking about Cam Newton (the primary topic of this thread and the guy mentioned by the person I was responding to), not Ryan Mallett (I am a Mallett fan). So maybe we both don't know what the !@#$ we're talking about! Lighten up, Francis.