PromoTheRobot Posted October 11, 2010 Share Posted October 11, 2010 (edited) Do you recall how the Bills had to draft Matt Leinert? How about Brady Quinn? Alex Smith? JaMarcus Russel? Yes every year there are draftniks who would bet one of their kidneys that <insert QB here> is the next can't-miss franchise QB. At least 2 every year! And yet we know from history that it is a rare year when more than one QB in a draft ever develops into a decent starter. So If the Bills are going to draft #1, prove to me that we won't wind up drafting the next Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer or JP Losman? Which one of you are going guarantee me that Locker, Luck or Mallett will become a hall-of-famer? BTW, I'm not debating that we need a QB. I'm asking which one is guaranteed not to disappoint us. PTR Edited October 11, 2010 by PromoTheRobot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Hansen Forever Posted October 11, 2010 Share Posted October 11, 2010 We will have to trust that Chan can pick a good one. He passed on all of the "can't miss" QB's this year, and it appears he was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted October 11, 2010 Author Share Posted October 11, 2010 We will have to trust that Chan can pick a good one. He passed on all of the "can't miss" QB's this year, and it appears he was right. I think Nix will be making the final decision though I'm sure Chan will have plenty to say. My point is that even with the #1 pick, a franchise QB is not guaranteed. PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted October 11, 2010 Share Posted October 11, 2010 Do you recall how the Bills had to draft Matt Leinert? How about Brady Quinn? Jimmy Clausen? JaMarcus Russel? Tim Tebow? Colt McCoy? Yes every year there are draftniks who would bet one of their kidneys that <insert QB here> is the next can't-miss franchise QB. At least 2 every year! And yet we know from history that it is a rare year when more than one QB in a draft ever develops into a decent starter. So If the Bills are going to draft #1, prove to me that we won't wind up drafting the next Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer or JP Losman? Which one of you are going guarantee me that Locker, Luck or Mallett will become a hall-of-famer? BTW, I'm not debating that we need a QB. I'm asking which one is guaranteed not to disappoint us. PTR nothing in life is guaranteed. i know you know that. but you still have to go out and take a chance anyways. imo, id personally like to promise you that Mallett is a "cant miss" pick. i could be wrong, but i feel the odds are heavily in my favor with that one. just like you selected a few names from 20+ years of draft history, id say that he has a very good chance to be the next Matt Ryan, Drew Bledsoe, or Philip Rivers. sure, plenty of guys dont live up to the hype, but plenty do as well. as far as your question of "which one is guaranteed to not disappoint us", the answer is an obvious none. even if the QB chosen plays well, people will still be here complaining about him. maybe he threw for 330 yards and 3 TDs today, but that throw on his one INT was unforgivable, etc, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChimp Posted October 11, 2010 Share Posted October 11, 2010 We will have to trust that Chan Ralph can pick a good one. He passed on all of the "can't miss" QB's this year, and it appears he was right. FIXED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Hansen Forever Posted October 11, 2010 Share Posted October 11, 2010 FIXED Okay smartass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted October 11, 2010 Author Share Posted October 11, 2010 nothing in life is guaranteed. i know you know that. but you still have to go out and take a chance anyways. imo, id personally like to promise you that Mallett is a "cant miss" pick. i could be wrong, but i feel the odds are heavily in my favor with that one. just like you selected a few names from 20+ years of draft history, id say that he has a very good chance to be the next Matt Ryan, Drew Bledsoe, or Philip Rivers. sure, plenty of guys dont live up to the hype, but plenty do as well. as far as your question of "which one is guaranteed to not disappoint us", the answer is an obvious none. even if the QB chosen plays well, people will still be here complaining about him. maybe he threw for 330 yards and 3 TDs today, but that throw on his one INT was unforgivable, etc, etc. There is about a 20% chance that a QB drafted #1 overall will amount to anything. That's why I think people will go batschitt if Nix doesn't draft a QB, even if he thinks they all aren't worth a #1 pick. I mean look at the posts now! People are still upset we passed on Clausen and he's been terrible. PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
....lybob Posted October 11, 2010 Share Posted October 11, 2010 The only player you mention who was considered a can't miss guy was JaMarcus Russel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted October 11, 2010 Author Share Posted October 11, 2010 The only player you mention who was considered a can't miss guy was JaMarcus Russel. Alex Smith? Matt Leinert? I seem to recall a lot of drooling over these names. PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPS Posted October 11, 2010 Share Posted October 11, 2010 What if NONE of the 2011 QB prospects carry a franchise grade? I think the marketing folks at OBD will take a QB no matter what and that scares me. What if LT or Derrick Thomas is there? Haloti Ngata? Reggie White? I'll puke (again) if the Bills draft a QB for any other reason than he's the best player in the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsadale Posted October 11, 2010 Share Posted October 11, 2010 Do you recall how the Bills had to draft Matt Leinert? How about Brady Quinn? Alex Smith? JaMarcus Russel? Yes every year there are draftniks who would bet one of their kidneys that <insert QB here> is the next can't-miss franchise QB. At least 2 every year! And yet we know from history that it is a rare year when more than one QB in a draft ever develops into a decent starter. So If the Bills are going to draft #1, prove to me that we won't wind up drafting the next Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer or JP Losman? Which one of you are going guarantee me that Locker, Luck or Mallett will become a hall-of-famer? BTW, I'm not debating that we need a QB. I'm asking which one is guaranteed not to disappoint us. PTR Let's say we just take a guy that we think can play a little. Take a Trent Dilfer in the third round, get him a line to play behind for gods sake. Im still hoping we can find a guy that can play right tackle before the years over. We should have jammed Calloway onto the practice squad imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cash Posted October 11, 2010 Share Posted October 11, 2010 Do you recall how the Bills had to draft Matt Leinert? How about Brady Quinn? Alex Smith? JaMarcus Russel? Yes every year there are draftniks who would bet one of their kidneys that <insert QB here> is the next can't-miss franchise QB. At least 2 every year! And yet we know from history that it is a rare year when more than one QB in a draft ever develops into a decent starter. So If the Bills are going to draft #1, prove to me that we won't wind up drafting the next Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer or JP Losman? Which one of you are going guarantee me that Locker, Luck or Mallett will become a hall-of-famer? BTW, I'm not debating that we need a QB. I'm asking which one is guaranteed not to disappoint us. PTR There is no sure thing. Every single QB in the draft has some level of risk associated with him, and there's a chance that he'll be a bust. But you miss 100% of the shots you don't take. I'd rather have a 50% chance at a franchise QB for 10+ years than a guarantee of mediocre QB play. The bottom line is that it's so important to have a great QB, and the reward is so great, that teams are willing to take a lot of risk to try to get one. This is one of the main reasons QBs bust at a higher rate than less important positions. The potential payoff justifies the risk. The two positions least likely to bust are safety and guard, because they're relatively unimportant. Teams won't take a S or G in the first round unless they're extremely confident he'll be a good starter. So neither I nor anyone else can guarantee you anything, but we can hope, and it's a pretty realistic hope, because all 3 of the guys you mentioned have a lot of upside. They all have some red flags, too. I think Luck has the fewest red flags by a decent margin, but I still wouldn't dream of calling him a guaranteed Pro Bowler. (Which is a more fair criterion than Hall of Famer. There's only 23 QBs in the Hall of Fame.) Even Peyton Manning, arguably the closest thing to a guaranteed QB prospect in NFL history, had some uncertainty around him when he was drafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Posted October 11, 2010 Share Posted October 11, 2010 I think Nix will be making the final decision though I'm sure Chan will have plenty to say. My point is that even with the #1 pick, a franchise QB is not guaranteed. PTR You are 100% correct and it can put us back another 3 years or so waiting for a QB to develop and worse if it is the wrong one. We could take Tim Couch and then Brady Quinn and be the Browns etc.... Remember those QBs were all the rage. We need a QB and if you hit the right one your franchise is set for more than a decade as a great QB covers up so many other deficiencies. But what scares me is that are more misses than hits on all of those QBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobChalmers Posted October 11, 2010 Share Posted October 11, 2010 There is about a 20% chance that a QB drafted #1 overall will amount to anything. That's why I think people will go batschitt if Nix doesn't draft a QB, even if he thinks they all aren't worth a #1 pick. I mean look at the posts now! People are still upset we passed on Clausen and he's been terrible. PTR Actually, at #1 overall it's more like 50/50 that they turn out very well. Obviously there's only one Peyton Manning or John Elway every 10 years or so, but about half of the others have been really good too. There's a list of all the draft picks by position out there if you search for it - I did a couple weeks back - sorry I don't have the link handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted October 11, 2010 Share Posted October 11, 2010 Nix will covet Mallett. Doesn't mean we'll lose every game to guarantee we get him, but he'll be the one Nix will want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreReed83 Posted October 11, 2010 Share Posted October 11, 2010 That term "Franchise QB" is thrown around WAAY too often. I still only consider 4 or 5 QB's even worthy of having that title (Peyton Mannning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Philip Rivers). 2 of them playing in San Diego when Nix was there. Just sayin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lets_go_bills Posted October 11, 2010 Share Posted October 11, 2010 All we can do is hope the QB we draft turns into the next Peyton Manning. I think Luck is the best of the bunch. Locker is a great athlete but very raw and unpolished as a passer. Mallet has the physical tools but struggles with his footwork, decision making and accuracy. Luck has it all, he's the prototypical pocket passer with all the intangibles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted October 11, 2010 Share Posted October 11, 2010 (edited) All we can do is hope the QB we draft turns into the next Peyton Manning. I think Luck is the best of the bunch. Locker is a great athlete but very raw and unpolished as a passer. Mallet has the physical tools but struggles with his footwork, decision making and accuracy. Luck has it all, he's the prototypical pocket passer with all the intangibles. A 69% completion ratio and 170 QB rating = 'stuggling'? You need to stop reading (and quoting) scouting reports, and start looking at stats and watching these guys play. Edited October 11, 2010 by The Senator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Hansen Forever Posted October 11, 2010 Share Posted October 11, 2010 All we can do is hope the QB we draft turns into the next Peyton Manning. Except Peyton wasn't that good out of the starting blocks, he had to mature first. We need another Marino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. K Posted October 11, 2010 Share Posted October 11, 2010 Let's say we just take a guy that we think can play a little. Take a Trent Dilfer in the third round, get him a line to play behind for gods sake. Im still hoping we can find a guy that can play right tackle before the years over. We should have jammed Calloway onto the practice squad imo. We've already got Trent Dilfer playing for us. His name is Ryan Fitzpatrick. Or maybe he's Rich Gannon. Or Brad Johnson. You get what I'm saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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