Will a Bill rush for 1,000 yards in 2010?

[DDD]

The Bills have a great trio of RB's and Gailey loves to run the ball. Jackson and Lynch appear to be the workhorses with Spiller getting 10-15 touches a game. With that trio and only one football, will the Bills have someone that rushes for over 1,000 yards in 2010? And what if the Bills actually had a good O-line. Could two guys get 1,000 yards like Byner and Mack did for Cleveland years ago. Food for thought.

[sllib olaffub]

I'd say, without a doubt. If Spiller gets the starting nod all season, gets 15-20 touces a game, then there's no way he doesn't get 1000 yards this season, unless he gets hurt for a long period of time. 15 touches a game for 16 games would mean he'd need 4.17 yards a carry for 1,000 yard season. That average is about where he'd be at, I think.

Now, if we're a running team to the extent that our talent might dictate, we could see Jackson and Spiller getting 1,000 yard seasons. It wouldn't be hard to imagine us averaging 30+ carries a game, with Jackson getting 15 as well.

 

So, it's possible. I'm inclined to guess, though, that Gailey would use his best runner heavily per game - so Spiller might see 70% of the carries when he's starting, and if he gets hurt or needs a rest then Jackson gets 70%. That's how I imagine it - with our "starter" ending up with 65-70% of the carries by years end.

[ganesh]

Yes. The Bills need to run the ball more often to keep the other team offense off the field. For them to be successful, they need a workhorse RB who can rush for more than 1000 yards. Jackson and Lynch should be able to do that.

[Chandler#81]

Yes. The Bills need to run the ball more often to keep the other team offense off the field. For them to be successful, they need a workhorse RB who can rush for more than 1000 yards. Jackson and Lynch should be able to do that.

 

 

This, and it will benefit us if we're not playing from behind a lot. IMO, for the Bills to be competitive early in the season, we're going to need a few big ST plays/turnovers and have a successful ground game going into the second half. There's still much learning to do for the defense, though I expect more 4-3 than what they're letting on. Without a pass rush and stout run D, we won't be able to establish 'Ground Gailey'.

[yungmack]

The more telling stat will be All Purpose Yards.

[notwoz]

The more telling stat will be All Purpose Yards.

Agreed -- and I expect Spiller to easily top 1K in all purpose yards

[C l u t c H 385]

No.

[Kelly the Dog]

I'd say, without a doubt. If Spiller gets the starting nod all season, gets 15-20 touces a game, then there's no way he doesn't get 1000 yards this season, unless he gets hurt for a long period of time. 15 touches a game for 16 games would mean he'd need 4.17 yards a carry for 1,000 yard season. That average is about where he'd be at, I think.

Now, if we're a running team to the extent that our talent might dictate, we could see Jackson and Spiller getting 1,000 yard seasons. It wouldn't be hard to imagine us averaging 30+ carries a game, with Jackson getting 15 as well.

 

So, it's possible. I'm inclined to guess, though, that Gailey would use his best runner heavily per game - so Spiller might see 70% of the carries when he's starting, and if he gets hurt or needs a rest then Jackson gets 70%. That's how I imagine it - with our "starter" ending up with 65-70% of the carries by years end.

When the Bills and others talk 15-20 touches a game, that includes carries and receptions. It will probably be a bit surprising if he gets 15 carries in a game, but he might. I expect an average of less than 15 carries a game. Like you said, 15 carries at 4.2 YPC for 16 games is 1008 yards. So he has a decent chance I guess of getting 1000. I'm intrigued to see what Gailey will do with the three headed monster. It could be fun. I wouldn't at all be surprised if they split 30+ carries between them every game with various levels for each. Plus a lot of catches, especially Spiller and Freddy, who I assume are going to be in place of a #2 WR.

Edited September 9, 2010 by Kelly the Fair and Balanced Dog

[Clippers of Nfl]

The Bills have a great trio of RB's and Gailey loves to run the ball. Jackson and Lynch appear to be the workhorses with Spiller getting 10-15 touches a game. With that trio and only one football, will the Bills have someone that rushes for over 1,000 yards in 2010? And what if the Bills actually had a good O-line. Could two guys get 1,000 yards like Byner and Mack did for Cleveland years ago. Food for thought.

great question by the way.

 

i hope spiller and lynch each go over the 1k mark. that would be so incredible for me.

[notwoz]

When the Bills and others talk 15-20 touches a game, that includes carries and receptions. It will probably be a bit surprising if he gets 15 carries in a game, but he might. I expect an average of less than 15 carries a game. Like you said, 15 carries at 4.2 YPC for 16 games is 1008 yards. So he has a decent chance I guess of getting 1000. I'm intrigued to see what Gailey will do with the three headed monster. It could be fun. I wouldn't at all be surprised if they split 30+ carries between them every game with various levels for each. Plus a lot of catches, especially Spiller and Freddy, who I assume are going to be in place of a #2 WR.

Given Chan's reputation for getting the most out of what he's got, I've been thinking that's a real possibility. If successful, that will take a lot of pressure off the receivers. But then I catch myself and think, "if I've figured that out, won't all the opposing coaches have figured that out as well?"

[Kelly the Dog]

Given Chan's reputation for getting the most out of what he's got, I've been thinking that's a real possibility. If successful, that will take a lot of pressure off the receivers. But then I catch myself and think, "if I've figured that out, won't all the opposing coaches have figured that out as well?"

I have no idea whether we are going to do this or not, but I imagine we'll see the three backs in there on quite a few plays. And then run out of it the first couple. The Dolphins, who will be reacting to each play we run by our substitutions, will likely keep a basic 3-4 in there to stop the run. If we line up with the three back, then before the snap move Freddy out wide as a WR, they will have to react with a CB. If we then put Spiller in motion the other way and keep Marshawn in the backfield, they may be forced to cover Spiller with a LB. We could then throw to Spiller or just run Marshawn against a spread out defense.

[KD in CA]

Probably not but who cares? I'd rather see all the backs rush for 2,000 total.

[Birch Bigsley]

I hope the Bills rush for over 500 times this season between their 3 RBs. Freddy should get the most carries with Spiller and Lynch having a lesser but equal load. Lynch will be great to throw at defenses in the 2nd half to wear them down. Lynch is brutal and tough. Spiller is a great change of pace back and if he's only been on the field a few times in the 1st half then he will have so much energy and power to dominate in the 3rd and 4th quarters. I think the best bet for one of these guys to go over 1,000 is Jackson cuz he'll probably see the ball more but we'll have to wait and see.

[notwoz]

I have no idea whether we are going to do this or not, but I imagine we'll see the three backs in there on quite a few plays. And then run out of it the first couple. The Dolphins, who will be reacting to each play we run by our substitutions, will likely keep a basic 3-4 in there to stop the run. If we line up with the three back, then before the snap move Freddy out wide as a WR, they will have to react with a CB. If we then put Spiller in motion the other way and keep Marshawn in the backfield, they may be forced to cover Spiller with a LB. We could then throw to Spiller or just run Marshawn against a spread out defense.

A scenario like that certainly puts some doubt into the minds of the defenders. And that half-second to second of doubt is often enough to result in a positive play -- if Trent makes the right read. Let's hope -- GO BILLS

[Ever Since '86]

No.

 

Thanks for your contributions

 

 

 

Spiller goes over 1k... freddy hits 1k barely and marshawn between 800 - 900yds.... bold prediction but if you think about it its more likely to happen then lee getting 1k receiving

[ganesh]

Wouldn't it be cool to see Freddie line up in Shotgun under Center with Lynch to his right and Spiller going Wide Left with Evans to his side and Marshawn runs to the right and catches a ball in for a TD.

[Punch]

Spiller: 1,300 rush yards, 600 receiving yards, 18 total TDs (including kick returns if he does in fact return kicks)

Jackson: 600 rush yards, 450 receiving yards, 4 total TDs

Lynch: 450 rush yards, 150 receiving yards, 8 total TDs

 

Probably wishful thinking, but I'm going with my gut... my beer filled gut.

[Pilsner]

Chan said he won't overwork CJ in the beginning of the season. If he can handle it then he'll probably get a bigger share of the responsibilities. Who knows, Chan might start off giving CJ a large work load to throw off the phins.

 

Here's my prediction of percent of carries and catches for our three backs for the early part of the season.

 

Carries:

 

Spiller 30% Jackson 35% Lynch 35%

 

Receptions:

 

Spiller 50% Jackson 30% Lynch 20%

 

IMO this will be our average but will change from game to game depending on game conditions and opponents defensive schemes.

 

Thoughts or predictions?

[notwoz]

Chan said he won't overwork CJ in the beginning of the season. If he can handle it then he'll probably get a bigger share of the responsibilities. Who knows, Chan might start off giving CJ a large work load to throw off the phins.

 

Here's my prediction of percent of carries and catches for our three backs for the early part of the season.

 

Carries:

 

Spiller 30% Jackson 35% Lynch 35%

 

Receptions:

 

Spiller 50% Jackson 30% Lynch 20%

 

IMO this will be our average but will change from game to game depending on game conditions and opponents defensive schemes.

 

Thoughts or predictions?

Mostly in agreement. My quibbles are around the edges: Receptions? I'd go a little more balanced between Jackson and Spiller. But mostly I'm in agreement.

[McBeane]

Wouldn't it be cool to see Freddie line up in Shotgun under Center with Lynch to his right and Spiller going Wide Left with Evans to his side and Marshawn runs to the right and catches a ball in for a TD.

 

You have a little contradiction there my friend.