If the Bills are so bad and Dolphins so awesome why only 3pt spread?

[milehiLou]

if the buffalo bills, echoed by many to go winless this season, are so bad and the dolphins are supposedly superbowl contenders (to some) then why is it that the bills are only getting three points in the betting line? are sportswriters smarter than sportsbook linemakers? is it because like many so many sportswriters repeat, they have a below average offensive line, trouble at the qb position, a new head coach, a new defensive system, no second wr, the weather sucks, bills fans will suckerpunch you for wearing a sanchez jersey?

 

what would the prognosticators be saying if Mike shanahan or bill cowher were leading the team on sept 12? would they then be the sleeper in the afc?

 

i would like any sportswriter to approach eric wood and tell him the bills have a below average offensive line. it wont happen.

 

to say that dick jauron coahched close to the vest would be an understatement, he coached under a hat. he was inept at clock management, terrible at when to use the replay, scared looking on the field, and otherwise unable to close out a game. the jury is out on gailey, but the team seems more ready to take the field then any of the past four walkthrough camp seasons. gailey is looking to redeem himself as an NFL HC, he has alot to prove and i believe a pretty good team to start out with.

[stony]

if the buffalo bills, echoed by many to go winless this season, are so bad and the dolphins are supposedly superbowl contenders (to some) then why is it that the bills are only getting three points in the betting line? are sportswriters smarter than sportsbook linemakers? is it because like many so many sportswriters repeat, they have a below average offensive line, trouble at the qb position, a new head coach, a new defensive system, no second wr, the weather sucks, bills fans will suckerpunch you for wearing a sanchez jersey?

 

what would the prognosticators be saying if Mike shanahan or bill cowher were leading the team on sept 12? would they then be the sleeper in the afc?

 

i would like any sportswriter to approach eric wood and tell him the bills have a below average offensive line. it wont happen.

 

to say that dick jauron coahched close to the vest would be an understatement, he coached under a hat. he was inept at clock management, terrible at when to use the replay, scared looking on the field, and otherwise unable to close out a game. the jury is out on gailey, but the team seems more ready to take the field then any of the past four walkthrough camp seasons. gailey is looking to redeem himself as an NFL HC, he has alot to prove and i believe a pretty good team to start out with.

 

1-Because the Bills, although devoid of overall talent when compared to Miami, havn't lost to Miami at home since 2003

 

2-That's stupid, no one one this board would ever say that to Eric Wood. We would only compliment him and be on our way.

[FightClub]

Because, unlike ESPN, Vegas has money on the line with their opinions and actually pays attention to the progression of the teams when setting the line.

 

An objective, "I have money on this" look at the game is the following:

 

1. You have two near-.500 teams from last year, separated by one game, who split their season series last year

 

2. One of the teams (The Bills) have gotten better, scoring the third most points per game in the NFL in the preseason, while the other, aside from the acquisition of one marquis headcase wide out, is probably worse.

 

3. The team that has improved is at home.

 

I am shocked, being at home, the Bills are not favored here. I expect them to start the season 1-2, but this first game is going to be the win, and in my opinion it's not going to be close, quite frankly.

Edited September 6, 2010 by FightClub

[thebug]

WE WILL WIN THE GAME!

[Bills4L]

There is a difference between what reporters who have no accountability believe and what people putting their money at risk believe. With that said, the bills are home for that game which really means that they are 6 point underdogs. I think the bills will win this game straight up and i don't know how Game 1 in the ralph they don't at the very least cover the spread.

[Big Turk]

if the buffalo bills, echoed by many to go winless this season, are so bad and the dolphins are supposedly superbowl contenders (to some) then why is it that the bills are only getting three points in the betting line? are sportswriters smarter than sportsbook linemakers? is it because like many so many sportswriters repeat, they have a below average offensive line, trouble at the qb position, a new head coach, a new defensive system, no second wr, the weather sucks, bills fans will suckerpunch you for wearing a sanchez jersey?

 

what would the prognosticators be saying if Mike shanahan or bill cowher were leading the team on sept 12? would they then be the sleeper in the afc?

 

i would like any sportswriter to approach eric wood and tell him the bills have a below average offensive line. it wont happen.

 

to say that dick jauron coahched close to the vest would be an understatement, he coached under a hat. he was inept at clock management, terrible at when to use the replay, scared looking on the field, and otherwise unable to close out a game. the jury is out on gailey, but the team seems more ready to take the field then any of the past four walkthrough camp seasons. gailey is looking to redeem himself as an NFL HC, he has alot to prove and i believe a pretty good team to start out with.

 

1) Home teams are usually given an automatic 3 points. Therefore, the Bills are really 6 point dogs.

 

2) Its the first week of the season. Lots of crazy things happen in week 1. Remember when the Bills smashed the Pats 31-0, then pretty much did next to nothing the rest of the year, while the Pats went to the playoffs?

 

3) Put no stock in what happens in the preseason, and not much more into what happens in the NFL before week 4. That's when you start seeing teams separate themselves from the rest of the pack...both in good ways and bad ways.

 

WE WILL WIN THE GAME!

 

Possibly, but in the grand scheme of what it means for our season going forward, it has little to no meaning. Lots of teams win week 1 and then go onto having crappy seasons.

[Buffalo Billy]

If the game was in Miami, we would be 9 point underdogs. That's how home advantage works.

[Thoner7]

Most of you are off base. Vegas spread has nothing to do with the actual predictions of outcomes. Vegas lines are there to level out the payouts when one or another team loses. Its more like a poll than a prediction. We are under dogs because the people betting on the game think we will lose.

Edited September 7, 2010 by Thoner7

[Zulu Cthulhu]

Trust what FightClub said the vegas handicappers know much, much more about football than d-bags on espn and pfw. It's those talking heads claiming the Bills will be horrible and miami is a "contender."

 

The handicappers on the other hand, actually look at facts like miami's road record, personnel pickups, past performance, quarterback tendencies versus various defenses, etc.

 

Use the force and trust the lines, not Peter King

 

Most of you are off base. Vegas spread has nothing to do with the actual predictions of outcomes. Vegas lines are there to level out the payouts when one or another team loses. Its mike like a poll than a prediction. We are under dogs because the people ebtting on the game think we will lose.

 

That's true for the spreads close to gameday thoner but i think the OP was referring to the opening line, which the handicappers set.

[Maddog69]

Bills 39

Dols 17

[Buffalo Billy]

Thoner, I think that has more to do with the "money line" and close-to-gametime spreads than the publicly posted initial lines. Here in Ontario the posted lines don't change no matter how many people bet one way or another.

[The Dean]

If the game was in Miami, we would be 9 point underdogs. That's how home advantage works.

 

 

That's the way it tends to work (home team gets 3 points) but I seriously doubt the Phins would be 9 point favorites opening week, even at home.

[Big Turk]

Most of you are off base. Vegas spread has nothing to do with the actual predictions of outcomes. Vegas lines are there to level out the payouts when one or another team loses. Its mike like a poll than a prediction. We are under dogs because the people ebtting on the game think we will lose.

 

What???

 

The initial lines are set by handicappers based on how likely they feel a team is to win or lose in a given situation. Yes, the line can move if there are too many people betting one way or another. For instance, if the Bills are 3 point dogs, and the majority of the people started taking the Bills, the line would start shifting towards the Bills(ie, 2 point dogs, 1 point dogs, etc) until they found a spot to even it out.

 

To say they have nothing to do with predictions of the outcome of the game is very naive.

[Buffalo Billy]

Dean, it pretty much is that simple. On a neutral site, we would be 6 point dogs. Take a look at the odds for the AFCE teams to make the playoffs, etc. We're like 15-1 to make the playoffs, 25-1 to win the division and 100-1 to win the Super Bowl. They are giving Miami much better odds.

[The Dean]

Dean, it pretty much is that simple. On a neutral site, we would be 6 point dogs. Take a look at the odds for the AFCE teams to make the playoffs, etc. We're like 15-1 to make the playoffs, 25-1 to win the division and 100-1 to win the Super Bowl. They are giving Miami much better odds.

 

 

I understand how the lines are made, and it isn't ALWAYS quite that simple. I think the correct answer to a question on a test about bookmaking would be: Miami would be 9 point favorites if the game were in Miami. What I'm saying is, in reality, I don't think that would be the spread. I think realistically it would be no more than 7 points.

[HumbleAndHungry]

un·der·dog   /ˈʌndərˌdɔg, -ˌdɒg/ Show Spelled[uhn-der-dawg, -dog] Show IPA

–noun

1. a person who is expected to lose in a contest or conflict.

2. a victim of social or political injustice: The underdogs were beginning to organize their protests.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Origin:

dictionary.com

 

 

Both definitions seem to be rather applicable

[Buffalo Billy]

And Dean, that's why you're not a professional line-maker. What you "think" is irrelevant. They do actual, you know, research and stuff with lots of numbers and everything. They determined in a straight up match, Miami should win by 6. Home field is worth 3 points, that's that. 6 + 3 = 9.

[The Senator]

un·der·dog   /ˈʌndərˌdɔg, -ˌdɒg/ Show Spelled[uhn-der-dawg, -dog] Show IPA

–noun

1. a person who is expected to lose in a contest or conflict.

2. a victim of social or political injustice: The underdogs were beginning to organize their protests.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Origin:

dictionary.com

 

 

Both definitions seem to be rather applicable

 

underdog

[Bob in STL]

 

Possibly, but in the grand scheme of what it means for our season going forward, it has little to no meaning. Lots of teams win week 1 and then go onto having crappy seasons.

 

 

Little or no meaning? True, it means one win, just like winning in week 8 or week 16. No difference.

 

However, this game means more because this is a division game. So in your "grand scheme" beating a division opponent should definitely mean more.

[The Dean]

And Dean, that's why you're not a professional line-maker. What you "think" is irrelevant. They do actual, you know, research and stuff with lots of numbers and everything. They determined in a straight up match, Miami should win by 6. Home field is worth 3 points, that's that. 6 + 3 = 9.

 

 

That's a good rule-of-thumb, but an oversimplification of how it really happens, as I understand it:

 

http://www.winnersedgeonline.com/point-spread-made.html

 

Excerpt:

The location in football is said to make an average of a 4-point difference in advantage to the home team in college football. This is misleading to use because some teams have much stronger home field advantages than others. Obviously, paltry attendance for a poor team might result in a NEGATIVE home field rating! It is unusual, but not out of the question. On the other end of the spectrum, a team like Nebraska could have a home field rating as high as 8 points for their great fans and performance at home in the past. The point is to determine what the home field situation is for the teams in question and not use the 4-point advantage as a general rule. The home field advantage is already built in to the line that was opened up on Sunday night. Do not make the mistake of assuming a set 4-point home field advantage as they are all different.