FightinIrishBills Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 There are a lot of dismal projections for the Bills 2010 season based not just on the team's seemingly inept offense, but also due to its sieve-like rushing defense. There seemed to be a simple formula for beating the Bills last year: run the ball. A LOT. No one would disagree that while the passing defense showed a lot of spark, the team was killed by the run (30th in rushing yards allowed is a testament to that). However, not only as an eternally optimistic Bills fan but also as someone who is skeptical of the hive mind of sports media, I wondered if the run defense is truly as dreadful as the numbers read, or if those numbers looked a lot worse because we were playing against teams with exceptional rushing attacks. For instance, the Jets' 1st ranked rushing certainly proved a test for any team last season. If, based on team rushing statistics, the Bills had to face a lot of teams with solid (top 10) ground games, then those rushing defense stats would look a lot worse than if they had to play weaker rushing teams. Here are last year's opponents and their rushing offense rankings (via NFL.com), listed by week played: 1.) New England (12th) 2.) Tampa Bay (23rd) 3.) New Orleans (6th) 4.) Miami (4th) 5.) Cleveland (8th) 6.) New York Jets (1st) 7.) Carolina (3rd) 8.) Houston (30th) 9.) BYE 10.) Tennessee (2nd) 11.) Jacksonville (10th) 12.) Miami (4th) 13.) New York Jets (1st) 14.) Kansas City (11th) 15.) New England (12th) 16.) Atlanta (15th) 17.) Indianapolis (32nd) The mean rushing ranking for the Bills' opponents was 10.875, so round it up to 11, while the median ranking is 9. Most critically, the Bills played teams with top 10 rushing offenses in 9 out of 16 games (and if you include top 15 rushing teams, that adds another 3 games). Looking at our opponents' top rusher in each game, did the Bills get pounded by the top rushing teams? Were they getting hammered by the weaker rushing teams as well? (RBs listed by week) 1.) Maroney- 32 yds 2.) Ward- 32 yds 3.) Thomas- 126 yds 4.) Brown- 115 yds 5.) Lewis- 117 yds 6.) Jones- 210 yds 7.) Williams- 89 yds 8.) Moats- 126 yds 9.) C. Johnson- 132 yds 10.) Jones-Drew- 66 yds 11.) Williams- 115 yds 12.) Jones- 109 yds 13.) Charles- 143 yds 14.) Maroney- 81 yds 15.) Snelling- 68 yds 16.) Hart- 28 yds It's more of a mixed bag here. Ryan Moats of the Houston Texans is the obvious aberration here, coming from the 30th ranked rushing offense and putting up over 100 yards against the Bills. But in 7 of the Bills 9 games against top 10 rushing offenses, opposing RBs rushed for over 100 yds. Meanwhile, of the Bills' four opponents ranked in the league's bottom 15 rushing attacks, only one RB (Moats) carried for over 100 yards. The Bills had to play against some of the league's best rushing attacks last year; furthermore, these teams tended to perform up to their level as top 10 rushing teams against the Bills. We played teams that had solid RBs and it showed on the field. And again, excepting Moats, the bottom ranked rushing teams weren't pounding us on the run. Compounded by the team's seemingly endless rash of injuries (especially on defense), the Bills had a dreadful time stopping the run against the league's best rushing teams. But the whole point of this exercise was to show that the Bills had a tough road a hoe in defending against the run, based on their opponents. While it might be useless trying to account for the unique combination injuries, bad coaching, and poor play, what can be determined is that the Bills had to play against tough run offenses. Conclusion? The Bills certainly performed poorly as a unit defending against the run, but perhaps the Bills weren't as bad in this category as it appears, insofar as they played quality rushing teams. And while nobody's dancing in the streets over the Bills' defense this year, hopefully their opponents won't turn out to be quite so difficult in the aggregate as rushing teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hossage Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 I think the combination of our injuries, lack of time of possession, and our soft defensive scheme made what could have been an effective run defense fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 Nice post. Must go get some Immodium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FightinIrishBills Posted August 3, 2010 Author Share Posted August 3, 2010 I think the combination of our injuries, lack of time of possession, and our soft defensive scheme made what could have been an effective run defense fail. I think the stat against top rushers is misleading, because many teams use more than one back. True on all accounts. I took a look at the combined rushing stats of all of the teams with RBs under 100 yards, and here's what I found: Combined rushing yards: Pats (Week 1): 57 yds Bucs: 57 yds Panthers: 116 yds Jags: 86 yds Pats (Week 15): 112 yds Falcons: 157 yds Colts: 28 yds The combined yards, when considering the Atlanta game, somewhat undermine my conjecture that the Bills didn't let up as much against weaker rushing teams. However, it also gives the Panthers, another top 10 rushing team from last year, over 100 yds rushing against us, making it 8 of the 9 teams we played against with top 10 rushing attacks that performed so well. I think the point still holds up that we faced an extremely difficult slate of rushing teams last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobDVA Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 Nice post. Must go get some Immodium. And if we are good against runs this year, we can call our defense the Immodium D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notwoz Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 And if we are good against runs this year, we can call our defense the Immodium D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Lightning Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 True on all accounts. I took a look at the combined rushing stats of all of the teams with RBs under 100 yards, and here's what I found: Combined rushing yards: Pats (Week 1): 57 yds Bucs: 57 yds Panthers: 116 yds Jags: 86 yds Pats (Week 15): 112 yds Falcons: 157 yds Colts: 28 yds The combined yards, when considering the Atlanta game, somewhat undermine my conjecture that the Bills didn't let up as much against weaker rushing teams. However, it also gives the Panthers, another top 10 rushing team from last year, over 100 yds rushing against us, making it 8 of the 9 teams we played against with top 10 rushing attacks that performed so well. I think the point still holds up that we faced an extremely difficult slate of rushing teams last year. Good post. But I'd like to see 4th quarter statistics. It seemed we could not get off the field at the end of any game. We got pushed around when we really needed a stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalonian-at-Heart Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 I'd run on a team that can't score too. Our lack of offense is a big reason for teams running the ball on us, as much as our porous defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 Wow. A lotta work went into that post. Great job. I'm more focused on the road ahead these days but thanks for the research. Very impressive. It seems to me like the Bills must have had the most 3 and outs in the league last year. A conviction that I hold which I haven't attempted to prove statistically is that a huge reason for the Bills softness against the run had to do with the offense constantly relinquishing the ball and thus allowing our opponents to wear down our defense. Many here noticed that seemingly every week our defense would battle valiantly only to be worn down at the end of games by our offense's inability to sustain drives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lenigmusx Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 Wow. A lotta work went into that post. Great job. I'm more focused on the road ahead these days but thanks for the research. Very impressive. It seems to me like the Bills must have had the most 3 and outs in the league last year. A conviction that I hold which I haven't attempted to prove statistically is that a huge reason for the Bills softness against the run had to do with the offense constantly relinquishing the ball and thus allowing our opponents to wear down our defense. Many here noticed that seemingly every week our defense would battle valiantly only to be worn down at the end of games by our offense's inability to sustain drives. This is one of the many reason that I maintain we are not a 5-11 team this year. If we run the ball and are less predictable on offence, which will be the case, there is no doubt that we will hover around 8-8 and if we get breaks 10-6 could happen. We are not the worst team in the division as so many have stated though. I honestly believe the overblown JETS could be bottom feeders esspecially if Revis sits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 I'd run on a team that can't score too. Our lack of offense is a big reason for teams running the ball on us, as much as our porous defense. I also believe a lot of those yards came in the 3rd and 4th qtrs, where teams punished us for being small up front. Having a bad offense was an added bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Hansen Forever Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 Nice post. Must go get some Immodium. Kaopectate works much better, and your poop doesn't turn black! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 Compounded by the team's seemingly endless rash of injuries (especially on defense), the Bills had a dreadful time stopping the run against the league's best rushing teams. But the whole point of this exercise was to show that the Bills had a tough road a hoe in defending against the run, based on their opponents. While it might be useless trying to account for the unique combination injuries, bad coaching, and poor play, what can be determined is that the Bills had to play against tough run offenses. Conclusion? The Bills certainly performed poorly as a unit defending against the run, but perhaps the Bills weren't as bad in this category as it appears, insofar as they played quality rushing teams. And while nobody's dancing in the streets over the Bills' defense this year, hopefully their opponents won't turn out to be quite so difficult in the aggregate as rushing teams. Stats are stats, etc. IIRC, they "led" the league on 3rd down rush yards allowed - something like 5.6 ypc. Run or pass, the opposition held the ball against them when it mattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cereal Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 It seems to me like the Bills must have had the most 3 and outs in the league last year. Anyone have the actual stat on this? Now I'm curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastRochBillsfan Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 Well, whatever the reasons we sucked against the run, and as bad as everyone wanted the o-line fixed, at least we got some people in here that should help us stop the run a little better. I think the combination of our injuries, lack of time of possession, and our soft defensive scheme made what could have been an effective run defense fail. Dude, I don't mind reading your stuff at all, but your avatars gotta go! (I can't be the only one creeped out by the ketchup bottle, can I ?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thoner7 Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 So all we have to do is hope we dont play any good teams. Then we could make the playoffs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FightinIrishBills Posted August 3, 2010 Author Share Posted August 3, 2010 Hey everyone, thanks for the thoughtful replies. I believe that you're all right--there are a lot of different reasons why the Bills got run all over last year, not least of which was our anemic offense being able to sustain a long enough drive. But I believe quality showed itself, and the Bills had the misfortune of playing some very powerful run games. That shouldn't be too consoling a thought. If the Bills are to be legitimate contenders at some point, they have to be able to both hold onto the ball and contain the opposing team on the ground. However, I think it is also important to look at what our opponent's strengths are and to account for that as well as the Bills' weaknesses. My only hope is that in spite of the stats shown here, topped with the awful injuries and the poor coaching, we still went 6-10. I also think that maybe we don't need to have a top-flight rushing defense to at least be competitive (though, looking at the correlation between rushing defense ranking and playoff teams, it definitely helps). If we can field an offense that can rattle off more big plays from time to time, we can still pull out wins against top rushing teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Projay89 Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 And if we are good against runs this year, we can call our defense the Immodium D. I want that t-shirt!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Projay89 Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 Hey everyone, thanks for the thoughtful replies. I believe that you're all right--there are a lot of different reasons why the Bills got run all over last year, not least of which was our anemic offense being able to sustain a long enough drive. But I believe quality showed itself, and the Bills had the misfortune of playing some very powerful run games. That shouldn't be too consoling a thought. If the Bills are to be legitimate contenders at some point, they have to be able to both hold onto the ball and contain the opposing team on the ground. However, I think it is also important to look at what our opponent's strengths are and to account for that as well as the Bills' weaknesses. My only hope is that in spite of the stats shown here, topped with the awful injuries and the poor coaching, we still went 6-10. I also think that maybe we don't need to have a top-flight rushing defense to at least be competitive (though, looking at the correlation between rushing defense ranking and playoff teams, it definitely helps). If we can field an offense that can rattle off more big plays from time to time, we can still pull out wins against top rushing teams. ...whats a big play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agardin Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 Anyone have the actual stat on this? Now I'm curious I tried to find the stats for three and outs and couldn't but they were the worst in overall 3rd down conversions which essentially causes the same problem, namely a defense that is always on the field because the offense can't sustain drives. If the Bills were to move to even the middle of the pack for this stat the defense would be able to rest and still be able to play in the fourth quarter as opposed to being completely gassed and run over. 3rd down conversions http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third...-conversion-pct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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