A Quick Fact About Rounds 4-7 Quarterbacks

[Wizard]

Regardless of whether you are a fan of our first three picks (Spiller,, Troup, and Carrington) or not (I'm not), there are mixed feelings on this board about getting a quarterback still in this draft.

 

Presented below are a few facts to consider when spending a pick on a QB in Rounds 4-7.

 

Between the years 1994 to 2005, there were 85 quarterbacks selected in Rounds 4-7 plus an unknown amount of free agents who were signed after the draft or got invited to a training camp.

 

Obviously, Warner and Romo were "needles in a haystack", as undrafted free agents; otherwise, here are the guys that have had success. Ironically, in my opinion, the best three quarterbacks to come in Rounds 4-7 in this time period were 6th round draft choices.

 

In other words, if you are going to take a QB, take him in Round #6. On the other hand, I only consider (Brady, Hasselbeck, Bulger, and Garrard) clearly having had more successful careers than Edwards at this point in his career.

 

Conclusion: If the Bills are looking for a starter better than Edwards, then the chances of getting him in Rounds 4-7 is 4 (Brady, Hasselbeck, Bulger, and Garrard) out of 85 (guys drafted between 94-2005).

 

The odds: .047 or 4.7% chance the Bills will find a better QB in the draft than Edwards in Rounds 4-7.

 

 

Players That Have Made A Difference In Rounds 4-7.

 

Note: I didn't include QB's from 2006-2009 as a way of giving these players a fair chance of proving themselves as valuable QB pick in Rounds 4-7.

 

 

6 33 199 Patriots Tom Brady Michigan

 

6 34 187 Packers Matt Hasselbeck Boston College

 

6 2 168 Saints Marc Bulger West Virginia

 

4 5 106 Bears Kyle Orton Purdue

 

7 16 230 Patriots Matt Cassel USC

 

6 39 213 Ravens Derek Anderson Oregon State

 

5 24 155 Eagles A.J. Feeley Oregon

 

7 6 212 49ers Tim Rattay Louisiana Tech

4 10 108 Jaguars David Garrard East Carolina

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I'd like to see us take a flyer on Tony Pike.

[John Cocktosten]

I quess we should have taken a QB in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd..........

[RealityCheck]

I quess we should have taken a QB in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd..........

A quarterback or the right quarterback?

[Bob in STL]

Regardless of whether you are a fan of our first three picks (Spiller,, Troup, and Carrington) or not (I'm not), there are mixed feelings on this board about getting a quarterback still in this draft.

 

Presented below are a few facts to consider when spending a pick on a QB in Rounds 4-7.

 

Between the years 1994 to 2005, there were 85 quarterbacks selected in Rounds 4-7 plus an unknown amount of free agents who were signed after the draft or got invited to a training camp.

 

Obviously, Warner and Romo were "needles in a haystack", as undrafted free agents; otherwise, here are the guys that have had success. Ironically, in my opinion, the best three quarterbacks to come in Rounds 4-7 in this time period were 6th round draft choices.

 

In other words, if you are going to take a QB, take him in Round #6. On the other hand, I only consider (Brady, Hasselbeck, Bulger, and Garrard) clearly having had more successful careers than Edwards at this point in his career.

 

Conclusion: If the Bills are looking for a starter better than Edwards, then the chances of getting him in Rounds 4-7 is 4 (Brady, Hasselbeck, Bulger, and Garrard) out of 85 (guys drafted between 94-2005).

 

The odds: .047 or 4.7% chance the Bills will find a better QB in the draft than Edwards in Rounds 4-7.

 

 

Players That Have Made A Difference In Rounds 4-7.

 

Note: I didn't include QB's from 2006-2009 as a way of giving these players a fair chance of proving themselves as valuable QB pick in Rounds 4-7.

 

 

6 33 199 Patriots Tom Brady Michigan

 

6 34 187 Packers Matt Hasselbeck Boston College

 

6 2 168 Saints Marc Bulger West Virginia

 

4 5 106 Bears Kyle Orton Purdue

 

7 16 230 Patriots Matt Cassel USC

 

6 39 213 Ravens Derek Anderson Oregon State

 

5 24 155 Eagles A.J. Feeley Oregon

 

7 6 212 49ers Tim Rattay Louisiana Tech

4 10 108 Jaguars David Garrard East Carolina

 

 

I don't get your point at all. If you like a QB at round 4-7 you take him, just like any other position.

 

Your list of QBs taken after round 3 convinces me that it is worth a shot.

[HansLanda]

that is a poopy list after seeing ratay...I think Nix will go QB next year in the first round.

[DarthICE]

that is a poopy list after seeing ratay...I think Nix will go QB next year in the first round.

 

 

Not unless we have the top pick. So I guess just mail in the season?

[Lofton80]

Take a flyer on Snead and let him develop.

[apuszczalowski]

I agree, but the only reason I agree with not making the pick for a QB now is that these guys are going to be "project QBs" and the bills already have a project in Brohm. If the Qb isn't going to come in and play/make an impact this year, wait til next year and use an early pick on one. The best option now wouold be to make a move for someone like Campbell, Troy Smith, Big Ben (if truly available), or maybe even Brady Quinn (if the Broncos want to move a QB now). Someone who can come in and compete for the starting job this year. The Bills don't need another project QB. They also have some players that can now be expendable after this draft that can be used in a trade like Lynch (if they don't want to go with 3 RB's), Stroud (he's better suited for a 4-3 and doesn't seem happy with the 3-4 change but willing to go along with it), maybe move a LB like Mitchell or even try to move a return man like Parrish.

[Wizard]

I don't get your point at all. If you like a QB at round 4-7 you take him, just like any other position.

 

Your list of QBs taken after round 3 convinces me that it is worth a shot.

 

Then, perhaps a rereading will help. Picking a QB like Tom Brady in Rounds 4-7 happens once every 30 years. If the Bills have 20 6th round picks and take 20QB's, they still probably won't find a starter better than Edwards.

[Thurman#1]

I don't get your point at all. If you like a QB at round 4-7 you take him, just like any other position.

 

Your list of QBs taken after round 3 convinces me that it is worth a shot.

 

 

 

His point is that you have a 4.7% chance of coming up with a good QB. Your odds are much higher at other positions. If you want a QB with a (relatively) high chance of success, get him in the first two rounds, and he'd probably better be in the first five picks if you wait till the second round.

[Bob in STL]

Then, perhaps a rereading will help. Picking a QB like Tom Brady in Rounds 4-7 happens once every 30 years. If the Bills have 20 6th round picks and take 20QB's, they still probably won't find a starter better than Edwards.

 

 

So it all about statistics, scouting and player development means nothing?

 

Glad you are here to clarify.

[Wizard]

So it all about statistics, scouting and player development means nothing?

 

Glad you are here to clarify.

 

Yes...because between 1994-2005 (more than 10 years worth of scouting and player development) 85 quarterbacks drafted in these rounds had chances to be scouted and developed, had time in training camps, as backup quarterbacks and/or starting quarterback under offensive line coaches, film study, weight room work, and quarterback coaches.

 

Yet less than 5% of them turn out to be good or serviceable starters. Brady and Hasselbeck are the most rare exceptions.

 

So, yes, statistics provides support for not taking a QB in rounds 4-7 despite all of the scouting and player development.

[Fastro]

Regardless of whether you are a fan of our first three picks (Spiller,, Troup, and Carrington) or not (I'm not), there are mixed feelings on this board about getting a quarterback still in this draft.

 

Presented below are a few facts to consider when spending a pick on a QB in Rounds 4-7.

 

Between the years 1994 to 2005, there were 85 quarterbacks selected in Rounds 4-7 plus an unknown amount of free agents who were signed after the draft or got invited to a training camp.

 

Obviously, Warner and Romo were "needles in a haystack", as undrafted free agents; otherwise, here are the guys that have had success. Ironically, in my opinion, the best three quarterbacks to come in Rounds 4-7 in this time period were 6th round draft choices.

 

In other words, if you are going to take a QB, take him in Round #6. On the other hand, I only consider (Brady, Hasselbeck, Bulger, and Garrard) clearly having had more successful careers than Edwards at this point in his career.

 

Conclusion: If the Bills are looking for a starter better than Edwards, then the chances of getting him in Rounds 4-7 is 4 (Brady, Hasselbeck, Bulger, and Garrard) out of 85 (guys drafted between 94-2005).

 

The odds: .047 or 4.7% chance the Bills will find a better QB in the draft than Edwards in Rounds 4-7.

 

 

Players That Have Made A Difference In Rounds 4-7.

 

Note: I didn't include QB's from 2006-2009 as a way of giving these players a fair chance of proving themselves as valuable QB pick in Rounds 4-7.

 

 

6 33 199 Patriots Tom Brady Michigan

 

6 34 187 Packers Matt Hasselbeck Boston College

 

6 2 168 Saints Marc Bulger West Virginia

 

4 5 106 Bears Kyle Orton Purdue

 

7 16 230 Patriots Matt Cassel USC

 

6 39 213 Ravens Derek Anderson Oregon State

 

5 24 155 Eagles A.J. Feeley Oregon

 

7 6 212 49ers Tim Rattay Louisiana Tech

4 10 108 Jaguars David Garrard East Carolina

 

Thanks for the stats and the legwork. The stats don't take into account though the organizations that surround the players taken or who was already the QB on the roster when taken. Sometimes, players just luck into better situations that allow them to play and blossom than others.

 

If we were really going to compare, we should look at what the success rate is for other position players. Although I suspect the success rate would probably be higher, it would be interesting to compare. I would guess again it really comes down to whom the scouts think will succceed, the desire and skill of the player, and the competition on the roster. If a scout has identified that a QB is the best player available for the team based on who is available, by all means go for it. I would rather roll the dice and win 5% of the time, than never win at all by not taking a chance.