Rebuilding

[Orton's Arm]

The year before Bill Parcells took over the Miami Dolphins, that team had gone 1-15. His first year as GM, they won the division and went to the playoffs. That quick turnaround is frequently cited as evidence that in today's NFL a rebuilding project can be completed very quickly.

 

So let's take a closer look at what Parcells actually did, and what he's achieved as the Dolphins' GM. Upon arriving, he got rid of most of the Dolphins' roster and replaced them with his own players. But (at least for the most part) that was a case of replacing D/D- players with C/C- players. He also acquired a few first-rate players, starting with Jake Long at LT. And he added Chad Pennington at QB. Mixing in a few good or very good players from the previous regime, and he had the tools he needed to put a competitive team out there every week. Add in a little good luck, a few breaks going the Dolphins' way, the faltering of some of the teams projected to finish ahead of them in the division, and some overachieving on the Dolphins' part, and before you know it they had the division title!!!

 

But then they were exposed in the first round of the playoffs; losing to the Ravens 27-9. That proved to be the first in a series of steps which would soon demonstrate that the Dolphins' rebuilding effort was not nearly as far along as that division title would lead one to believe. Chad Pennington--whose steady play at QB had been crucial to the Dolphins' success--soon hung up his cleats. Some of the better players Parcells inherited from the previous regime either became old, injured, or retired. While Henne did a steady job at QB, he was no Matt Ryan. They finished the season 7-9.

 

So where do the Dolphins stand now? They're picking somewhere in the middle of the first round, long after the top two QBs will be off the board. Henne is supposed to be their QB of the future, but the bust rate for 2nd round QBs is over 90%. His QB rating for the 2009 season was 75; and he averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Unless he is able to significantly improve his level of play, it is unlikely the Dolphins will advance to the Super Bowl with him under center. Most Super Bowl champions over the last 10 - 15 years have received elite or near-elite level of play from the QB position. A QB rating of 75 doesn't cut it unless your defense is as good as the one the Ravens had in 2000.

 

At least for the moment, the Dolphins appear to be stuck in the middle of the pack. Parcells elected to make quick improvements. In that he succeeded--perhaps a little too well. Because now the Dolphins' record is good enough--and likely to remain so, over the next few years--that they're unlikely to have access to the top-tier QBs in the draft. Unless Henne proves he's a franchise QB--which seems unlikely--the lack of access to that kind of first-rate QB will really hurt them. While the Dolphins will be a good, solid football team, they are very unlikely to win the Super Bowl unless some current factor radically changes. Neither the horde of C/C- players Parcells brought in when he took over, nor the C/C+ QB he drafted in the second round, are the stuff of which Super Bowl champions are made.

 

What relevance does this have to the Bills?

1) If there's a franchise QB available, and if you don't have one, you draft him. Period. That's what Bill Polian would do; and that's what we should do also.

2) You do not necessarily want to see a dramatic improvement in your team's record in year 1 of the rebuilding program. Having a lousy year, record-wise, can be a good way to get the kind of elite talent you'll find toward the top of the draft. Waiting until year 2 of the rebuilding program to start seeing significant improvement is probably better.

3) A rebuilding program cannot successfully be performed in one year. If you try to do so, part of what you build will consist of solid wood and concrete, but a lot/most of it will be a mere facade. A prop--like you'd see in a movie studio--and not a real building.

4) Go Bills! Squish the fish!!

[beerme1]

So what qb do you want the Bills to draft?

[Gotta Dream]

What relevance does this have to the Bills?

1) If there's a franchise QB available, and if you don't have one, you draft him. Period. That's what Bill Polian would do; and that's what we should do also.

2) You do not necessarily want to see a dramatic improvement in your team's record in year 1 of the rebuilding program. Having a lousy year, record-wise, can be a good way to get the kind of elite talent you'll find toward the top of the draft. Waiting until year 2 of the rebuilding program to start seeing significant improvement is probably better.

3) A rebuilding program cannot successfully be performed in one year. If you try to do so, part of what you build will consist of solid wood and concrete, but a lot/most of it will be a mere facade. A prop--like you'd see in a movie studio--and not a real building.

4) Go Bills! Squish the fish!!

 

Very thoughtful post. But Parcells builds his teams on defense and linemen. He won the Superbowl with Phil Simms. Got to the superbowl with Drew Bledsoe. Got the Jets winning with Vinnie Testaverde. All decent QB's but none stunning. He's being helped right now in Miami because the Bills have been so dysfunctional.

 

Bill Polian drafted Peyton Manning. If any knowledgeable GM was given that opportunity, who wouldn't have done that? None of the QB's since 1988 (except maybe Tom Brady) are even near the talent of PM. Certainly none of the QB's this year can be mentioned with them. It would take the Bills tanking, knowing that the best QB in NFL history was going to be available to them during the draft to be able to make that type of move - and it ain't happening

 

You are correct that the Bills mediocrity is killing the their rebuilding effort. Middle of the pack drafting, and draft busts have kept the Bills where they are today. I wouldn't necessarily blame it on the QB - even though they all suck.

[Orton's Arm]

Very thoughtful post. But Parcells builds his teams on defense and linemen. He won the Superbowl with Phil Simms. Got to the superbowl with Drew Bledsoe. Got the Jets winning with Vinnie Testaverde. All decent QB's but none stunning. He's being helped right now in Miami because the Bills have been so dysfunctional.

 

Bill Polian drafted Peyton Manning. If any knowledgeable GM was given that opportunity, who wouldn't have done that? None of the QB's since 1988 (except maybe Tom Brady) are even near the talent of PM. Certainly none of the QB's this year can be mentioned with them. It would take the Bills tanking, knowing that the best QB in NFL history was going to be available to them during the draft to be able to make that type of move - and it ain't happening

 

You are correct that the Bills mediocrity is killing the their rebuilding effort. Middle of the pack drafting, and draft busts have kept the Bills where they are today. I wouldn't necessarily blame it on the QB - even though they all suck.

Thanks for your compliment and response! I'll agree that Parcells has done well without always having stellar play from his QB. Phil Simms was a good QB. Not Hall of Fame good, necessarily, but good. As for Drew Bledsoe--the first five or so years of his career, he was playing like a Hall of Famer. I know that sounds really weird considering the kind of play we saw from Drew while he was here. I guess he has a Hall of Fame mode (his first eight games as a Bill) and a mediocre mode (everything else we saw from him). During his first few years in the league, he was often in, or close to being in, his Hall of Fame mode. Which was a big reason why the Patriots got to the Super Bowl under Parcells! Then he spent his next few years with the Patriots in mediocre mode.

 

I agree Parcells got the Jets winning with Testaverde; but a team like that has a ceiling on what it can achieve. And that ceiling will almost always keep teams like that out of the Super Bowl. On the very rare occasions when a team like that does make it in, it will lose. Much like the Stan Humpheries-led Chargers were destroyed by Steve Young and the 49ers in that one Super Bowl.

 

As far as which quarterback I'd draft . . . if I was GM, I'd take a strong look at Jimmy Clausen. For whatever it's worth, his junior stats are comparable to or better than the junior year stats of Peyton Manning. And he put those stats up while in a Pro-style offense; which means they're probably a lot more applicable to the NFL than the stats of someone working out of the spread might be. This is not to suggest Clausen will be the next Peyton Manning. The odds of any quarterback achieving that level of play, no matter where he's picked, are very small. But based on the data I've seen, Clausen appears to be a very strong prospect.

 

I agree with your point about the Bills' woes in the post-Super Bowl era being due to far more than the absence of a quarterback alone. A good quarterback, alone, won't win you games. (Any more than a car with an amazing engine but no wheels will get you from point A to point B.) Not that that metaphor is perfect, because Kurt Warner + Orlando Pace will get you a much better offense than Kurt Warner + Mike Gandy. However, Kurt Warner + Mike Gandy will give you a much better offense than Jon Ogden + Trent Dilfer.

 

The latter is why adding a franchise QB is so important, even though he's merely the first of many pieces that must be assembled for you to have a Super Bowl winner.

[tonyjustbcuz]

The year before Bill Parcells took over the Miami Dolphins, that team had gone 1-15. His first year as GM, they won the division and went to the playoffs. That quick turnaround is frequently cited as evidence that in today's NFL a rebuilding project can be completed very quickly.

 

So let's take a closer look at what Parcells actually did, and what he's achieved as the Dolphins' GM. Upon arriving, he got rid of most of the Dolphins' roster and replaced them with his own players. But (at least for the most part) that was a case of replacing D/D- players with C/C- players. He also acquired a few first-rate players, starting with Jake Long at LT. And he added Chad Pennington at QB. Mixing in a few good or very good players from the previous regime, and he had the tools he needed to put a competitive team out there every week. Add in a little good luck, a few breaks going the Dolphins' way, the faltering of some of the teams projected to finish ahead of them in the division, and some overachieving on the Dolphins' part, and before you know it they had the division title!!!

 

But then they were exposed in the first round of the playoffs; losing to the Ravens 27-9. That proved to be the first in a series of steps which would soon demonstrate that the Dolphins' rebuilding effort was not nearly as far along as that division title would lead one to believe. Chad Pennington--whose steady play at QB had been crucial to the Dolphins' success--soon hung up his cleats. Some of the better players Parcells inherited from the previous regime either became old, injured, or retired. While Henne did a steady job at QB, he was no Matt Ryan. They finished the season 7-9.

 

So where do the Dolphins stand now? They're picking somewhere in the middle of the first round, long after the top two QBs will be off the board. Henne is supposed to be their QB of the future, but the bust rate for 2nd round QBs is over 90%. His QB rating for the 2009 season was 75; and he averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Unless he is able to significantly improve his level of play, it is unlikely the Dolphins will advance to the Super Bowl with him under center. Most Super Bowl champions over the last 10 - 15 years have received elite or near-elite level of play from the QB position. A QB rating of 75 doesn't cut it unless your defense is as good as the one the Ravens had in 2000.

 

At least for the moment, the Dolphins appear to be stuck in the middle of the pack. Parcells elected to make quick improvements. In that he succeeded--perhaps a little too well. Because now the Dolphins' record is good enough--and likely to remain so, over the next few years--that they're unlikely to have access to the top-tier QBs in the draft. Unless Henne proves he's a franchise QB--which seems unlikely--the lack of access to that kind of first-rate QB will really hurt them. While the Dolphins will be a good, solid football team, they are very unlikely to win the Super Bowl unless some current factor radically changes. Neither the horde of C/C- players Parcells brought in when he took over, nor the C/C+ QB he drafted in the second round, are the stuff of which Super Bowl champions are made.

 

What relevance does this have to the Bills?

1) If there's a franchise QB available, and if you don't have one, you draft him. Period. That's what Bill Polian would do; and that's what we should do also.

2) You do not necessarily want to see a dramatic improvement in your team's record in year 1 of the rebuilding program. Having a lousy year, record-wise, can be a good way to get the kind of elite talent you'll find toward the top of the draft. Waiting until year 2 of the rebuilding program to start seeing significant improvement is probably better.

3) A rebuilding program cannot successfully be performed in one year. If you try to do so, part of what you build will consist of solid wood and concrete, but a lot/most of it will be a mere facade. A prop--like you'd see in a movie studio--and not a real building.

4) Go Bills! Squish the fish!!

[K-9]

Very thoughtful post. But Parcells builds his teams on defense and linemen. He won the Superbowl with Phil Simms. Got to the superbowl with Drew Bledsoe. Got the Jets winning with Vinnie Testaverde. All decent QB's but none stunning. He's being helped right now in Miami because the Bills have been so dysfunctional.

 

Bill Polian drafted Peyton Manning. If any knowledgeable GM was given that opportunity, who wouldn't have done that? None of the QB's since 1988 (except maybe Tom Brady) are even near the talent of PM. Certainly none of the QB's this year can be mentioned with them. It would take the Bills tanking, knowing that the best QB in NFL history was going to be available to them during the draft to be able to make that type of move - and it ain't happening

 

You are correct that the Bills mediocrity is killing the their rebuilding effort. Middle of the pack drafting, and draft busts have kept the Bills where they are today. I wouldn't necessarily blame it on the QB - even though they all suck.

 

No doubt Parcell's has always placed importance on good linemen. There isn't a GM in the league that doesn't. But the three QBs you mention are interesting and suggest Parcells places a big premium on QBs as well. When they were drafted, two by Parcells, they were projected to be blue chip, can't miss stars. Parcells had no problem taking Simms with the 7th pick in the 1st round, nor did he have any problem taking Bledsoe #1 overall. As for Testaverde, while he wasn't a Parcells pick, he was a 1st overall pick as well.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[tonyjustbcuz]

The year before Bill Parcells took over the Miami Dolphins, that team had gone 1-15. His first year as GM, they won the division and went to the playoffs. That quick turnaround is frequently cited as evidence that in today's NFL a rebuilding project can be completed very quickly.

 

So let's take a closer look at what Parcells actually did, and what he's achieved as the Dolphins' GM. Upon arriving, he got rid of most of the Dolphins' roster and replaced them with his own players. But (at least for the most part) that was a case of replacing D/D- players with C/C- players. He also acquired a few first-rate players, starting with Jake Long at LT. And he added Chad Pennington at QB. Mixing in a few good or very good players from the previous regime, and he had the tools he needed to put a competitive team out there every week. Add in a little good luck, a few breaks going the Dolphins' way, the faltering of some of the teams projected to finish ahead of them in the division, and some overachieving on the Dolphins' part, and before you know it they had the division title!!!

 

But then they were exposed in the first round of the playoffs; losing to the Ravens 27-9. That proved to be the first in a series of steps which would soon demonstrate that the Dolphins' rebuilding effort was not nearly as far along as that division title would lead one to believe. Chad Pennington--whose steady play at QB had been crucial to the Dolphins' success--soon hung up his cleats. Some of the better players Parcells inherited from the previous regime either became old, injured, or retired. While Henne did a steady job at QB, he was no Matt Ryan. They finished the season 7-9.

 

So where do the Dolphins stand now? They're picking somewhere in the middle of the first round, long after the top two QBs will be off the board. Henne is supposed to be their QB of the future, but the bust rate for 2nd round QBs is over 90%. His QB rating for the 2009 season was 75; and he averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Unless he is able to significantly improve his level of play, it is unlikely the Dolphins will advance to the Super Bowl with him under center. Most Super Bowl champions over the last 10 - 15 years have received elite or near-elite level of play from the QB position. A QB rating of 75 doesn't cut it unless your defense is as good as the one the Ravens had in 2000.

 

At least for the moment, the Dolphins appear to be stuck in the middle of the pack. Parcells elected to make quick improvements. In that he succeeded--perhaps a little too well. Because now the Dolphins' record is good enough--and likely to remain so, over the next few years--that they're unlikely to have access to the top-tier QBs in the draft. Unless Henne proves he's a franchise QB--which seems unlikely--the lack of access to that kind of first-rate QB will really hurt them. While the Dolphins will be a good, solid football team, they are very unlikely to win the Super Bowl unless some current factor radically changes. Neither the horde of C/C- players Parcells brought in when he took over, nor the C/C+ QB he drafted in the second round, are the stuff of which Super Bowl champions are made.

 

What relevance does this have to the Bills?

1) If there's a franchise QB available, and if you don't have one, you draft him. Period. That's what Bill Polian would do; and that's what we should do also.

2) You do not necessarily want to see a dramatic improvement in your team's record in year 1 of the rebuilding program. Having a lousy year, record-wise, can be a good way to get the kind of elite talent you'll find toward the top of the draft. Waiting until year 2 of the rebuilding program to start seeing significant improvement is probably better.

3) A rebuilding program cannot successfully be performed in one year. If you try to do so, part of what you build will consist of solid wood and concrete, but a lot/most of it will be a mere facade. A prop--like you'd see in a movie studio--and not a real building.

4) Go Bills! Squish the fish!!

 

 

Hey I was with you until you got near the end and from #2 on I just didn't agree with what you were saying or how you put it!! After 10 consecutive years of shoveling crap around and having a losing record and a decade long playoff drought I would welcome a division title and embrace it wholeheartedly!!! I don't care if it seems like a facade or not to you!! If you win the division or make the playoffs anything can happen...but to keep stepping in mushy crap every year like the Bills do you are not going to have happy feet! I think the rebuilding solution is to draft carefully and shrewdly like Polian did when he craftfully assembled the Colts in the mold of the 90's Bills. You also carefully target a few young FA that may not be the big named Julius Peppers...but young players, that have some upside and have not had the opportunity to fully showcase

their talent as marquee starters. I agree, if the QB is there early on you grab him as he's your General and good teams have to have a effective QB leading the offense. You also would draft or grab a FA OLT if you like one to protect your QB's, and maybe find a FA QB as well to play until your Rookie QB gets his NFL Legs and the playbook down. The Bills need to find a NT for the 3/4 defense and need to get one or two more LB's as well....If you can offload some of the players who are non-productive or are more bother than they are worth like Lynch that would be wise...especially if you can get some ammo for them like draftpicks. I agree that it is not a one year and done proposition, but I'll take a good year next year neverless! New England drafts better than the Bills every year even though they draft near the bottom or at the bottom of the rotation every year. So, I don't buy into the theory that if the Bills win now...they will screw up their draft next year. Indy, Pittsburgh, N.England and other winning clubs have a winning climate, attitude, and personnel departments that know how to analyze what pieces of the puzzle are needed, and unlike the Bills they go out and fill the void. Are void is almost a bottomless pit as it our situation becomes more dire each year.

 

Another key to us succeeding isn't just drafting the right players and picking up a few FA's that suit our needs, but it is also retaining the players we value and to make sure that the worthy players are paid and extend their contracts to avoid becoming UFA's and open to the market like Nate Clements, Antwoine Winfield, Pat Williams, Jabari Greer, and many others have been. It's a quick exit out of town and another void to fill on our team...

As long as we're talking the number system.....

 

1. You have to determine what positions need upgrading, starters, and depth players.

2. You have to target players in the draft and FA's that meet the criteria you are looking for.

3. You have to make a financial offer that is reasonable for prospective FA's and lock up your rookies so they don't

miss Mini-camp.

4. You have to ensure you purge any players on the roster that are undesirable before the draft to identify any other

holes you may have.

[aristocrat]

would bill parcells sign jake delhomme to a 2 year deal...draft left tackle first round and def line 2nd round? with jake you get a guy who is a former starter with some playoff experience. could he be the bills kerry collins, lesser kurt warner? we beef up our line and let jake manage the games for us. then next year we move up like the jets did to get our franchise qb and that kid plays behind delhomme for a year or delhomme plays backup to the kid. just a thought

[Albany,n.y.]

No doubt Parcell's has always placed importance on good linemen. There isn't a GM in the league that doesn't. But the three QBs you mention are interesting and suggest Parcells places a big premium on QBs as well. When they were drafted, two by Parcells, they were projected to be blue chip, can't miss stars. Parcells had no problem taking Simms with the 7th pick in the 1st round, nor did he have any problem taking Bledsoe #1 overall. As for Testaverde, while he wasn't a Parcells pick, he was a 1st overall pick as well.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Parcells had nothing to do with drafting Phil Simms.

[Bill from NYC]

Parcells had nothing to do with drafting Phil Simms.

 

You have a great memory. Was that Raymond Berry who actually ran patterns for Simms to decide whether or not to take him?

[K-9]

Parcells had nothing to do with drafting Phil Simms.

 

Brain cramp OMEGA. Simms was WAY before Parcells' tenure when drafted. Thanks for pointing that out.

 

But my major point of Parcells having 1st round QBs to ride to a SB (Simms and Bledsoe) and to the playoffs (Testeverde) remains. Parcells has always placed a high importance on having a good QB.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[JPS]

The interesting thing is the talk how Percells "got by" with these QBs. Testeverde and Bledsoe were #1 overall picks.... Simms, Pennington...all #1 picks. He knows you need talent there, just like everywhere.

[Orton's Arm]

Brain cramp OMEGA. Simms was WAY before Parcells' tenure when drafted. Thanks for pointing that out.

 

But my major point of Parcells having 1st round QBs to ride to a SB (Simms and Bledsoe) and to the playoffs (Testeverde) remains. Parcells has always placed a high importance on having a good QB.

 

GO BILLS!!!

While I agree Parcells has often had good QBs, it's not 100% clear how much importance he's actually placed on the position. As someone pointed out, Simms was drafted before Parcells got to the Giants; and early in Simms' career Parcells made him ride the bench for a year in favor of Scott Brunner! Then later (when Parcells was the head coach of the Patriots), they drafted Bledsoe first overall. Okay, that might seem to indicate a high importance on the QB position! But Parcells left the Patriots a few years later because of his lack of input into player personnel decisions. He said that if they want you to make dinner, they should let you buy the ingredients. So we don't necessarily know whether Bledsoe would have been the Patriots' pick if the decision had been up to Parcells.

 

As for Testaverde: the Jets signed him in free agency, for a fairly reasonable price if I recall. The fact that he was once a first overall pick didn't mean much there, any more than the fact that Trent Dilfer had once been a first round pick of the Bucs made him an elite-level free agent signing when the Ravens brought him on board. Testaverde was a seasoned veteran. You knew he'd give you solid play, but you also knew there was a big difference between Testaverde and, say, Joe Montana.

 

With the possible exception of the Bledsoe pick, Parcells has not demonstrated a willingness to use first round picks on the QB position.