Bills Weather Conditions for Home Games (Stats)

[SouthernMan]

For a while, I’ve been wondering how much the reputation for adverse weather at Bills home games is exaggerated or real.

 

This thought came about because it seemed to me like almost every time I’ve watched a November of December from Orchard Park in the past few years, the broadcast team makes a comment about the “unusually balmy weather”.

For those of you who record and save all the games, go back and check them out. I’ll bet the weather is typical northeast autumn weather for the most part. Yeah, there’ve been a few games that were frigid, windy, snowy, rainy, etc. – but is it typical? Is is that much worse than about 10 other northeastern teams that play outdoors? I beleive I've seen more snowy conditions in New England and Denver.

 

Lately, there’s talk around here at TSW and the local WNY gin mills about drafting a QB that can handle cold weather conditions in Orchard Park, and who’s not from California or some such place where they operated in ideal conditions at teh college level.

 

How much of a factor should weather play in the decision, especially considering the inclusion of a December home game under the big top in Toronto?

 

I’ve compiled data from a web site that gives temperatures and conditions for each game from 2002-2009.

 

http://nflgateway.com/schedule.php?team=Bi...amp;season=2003

 

The weather descriptions are not all that comprehensive, and there were probably some windier than usual days not accounted for, but it gives some idea about what it was like. The weather conditions are approximate and as described on the web site, so don’t jump up my ass if they’re not exact or you remember it differently.

 

I don’t know if this was a forecast or actual conditions. It may also be that when conditions were given as “rainy”, there was a short shower for a few minutes at some point in the game. I don’t know all the details.

 

The idea of collecting this info is to get actual data and see if it would prove or disprove the preconceived perception that Bills home games frequently being played in blustery, blizzard conditions. I think you’ll find this interesting.

 

Here are the findings for home games between 2002-2009:

 

Sept. – total of 14 home games, Sunny (7), Cloudy (7 ),

avg Sept temp: 70

 

Oct. - total of 15 home games, Sunny (7), Cloudy (6 ), Rain (1), Windy (1),

avg Oct temp: 54

 

Nov. - total of 16 home games, Sunny (5), Cloudy (11 ),

Avg Nov temp: 48

 

Dec/Jan – total of 19 home games, Sunny (4), Cloudy (7), Windy (1), Rain (3), Snow (4),

avg Dec/Jan temp: 39

 

 

64 home games from 2002-2009

Average temp at Bills game: 52 degrees

Cloudy: 31 times, or 48%

Sunny: 23 times, or 36%

Rain: 4 times, or 6%

Windy: 2 times, or 4%

SNOW: 4 TIMES, or 6% !!!

 

The 2 Toronto games from 08 and 09 were counted as Sunny, with a temperature of 72 degrees.

 

There were only two January games, so they were lumped into the December stats.

 

I believe wind is probably a bigger factor than cold or snow. The Toronto games will reduce that effect as compared to pre-2008 stats. I just don't see that Bill's home conditions are all that unusual that it plays a huge part in drafting decisions.

 

Draw your own conclusions.

[Tortured Soul]

I immediately looked up the 2007 game at Cleveland for their description. It says 30 degrees and clear.

 

The game was played in a Blizzard with driving winds and a white field throughout.

[murra]

I think it is a very good idea to do a study to put to rest the cold weather myth, but I think you've gone about it a bit wrong.

 

First of all, increase your sample size. Why limit it to 6 seasons? In order to explain glaring tenancies (especially considering that there are fewer games in january than the other months) you need to make sure you've tracked down enough data to overlook the few home games shown in your collection.

 

You also need to use comparative data, since that is what your trying to prove. Saying that 6% of games occurred in snow conditions doesn't mean anything to me. Sure 6% is alow number, but is that relatively high? I have no idea. I think you're on the right track, but let's try and get a more definitive conclusion out there.

[NY Nole]

Wind is definitely the biggest factor at Bills games. It can be 70 degrees and sunny at RWS and still feel like 30 with the wind chill.

[murra]

I immediately looked up the 2007 game at Cleveland for their description. It says 30 degrees and clear.

 

The game was played in a Blizzard with driving winds and a white field throughout.

 

Because of this I think to definitively study the weather rates at Bills games would take a lot of work.

[SHOUTBOX MONSTER!]

I immediately looked up the 2007 game at Cleveland for their description. It says 30 degrees and clear.

 

The game was played in a Blizzard with driving winds and a white field throughout.

 

And I didn't realize that the Giants game the next week was a comfortable 52 degrees.

[SouthernMan]

I think it is a very good idea to do a study to put to rest the cold weather myth, but I think you've gone about it a bit wrong.

 

First of all, increase your sample size. Why limit it to 6 seasons? In order to explain glaring tenancies (especially considering that there are fewer games in january than the other months) you need to make sure you've tracked down enough data to overlook the few home games shown in your collection.

 

You also need to use comparative data, since that is what your trying to prove. Saying that 6% of games occurred in snow conditions doesn't mean anything to me. Sure 6% is alow number, but is that relatively high? I have no idea. I think you're on the right track, but let's try and get a more definitive conclusion out there.

 

It was 8 seasons, and that was all that was available from that web site, ok?

 

This was not a serious scientific study, so get your head out of the clouds professor.

 

I didn't attempt to give any "definitive conclusion". I was simply providing some info I thought might be interesting when compiled and viewed collectively. To do a real study and comparative analysis, it would be necessary to get full details about the conditions, and then compare with other team's home conditions. Really, I don't care all that much that I would spend more than a few minutes looking into it.

 

My bottom line was this: in my opinion, and my opinion only, the weather conditions are not as big a factor as the reputation would have one believe. It's subjective and somewhat inconclusive.

 

And yes, you can maybe cite home games with more snow than the web site suggested. I think I said that it was not definitive and detrails were sketchy - just a basic outline. But over the past 8 seasons - how many "snow days" have the Bills really had where the snow was a factor in the running or passing game? I'd be surprised if it was more the 5 or 6 times. Over 8 seasons? Big deal! In my estimation, hardly worth being at the forefront of Buffalo homes game conversation.

I guess it's just too easy to overlook the high number of perfect weather days in September and October. Who wants to hear that about Buffalo?

 

The only thing that is for certain is that some TSW readers with nothing better to do will nitpick the post and try and find flaws to show how detailed and astute they are. I'm not a statistician. Get over yourself.

[stuckincincy]

It was 8 seasons, and that was all that was available from that web site, ok?

 

This was not a serious scientific study, so get your head out of the clouds professor.

 

I didn't attempt to give any "definitive conclusion". I was simply providing some info I thought might be interesting when compiled and viewed collectively.

 

Thanks for the info, DML. I'm not a fan of picking a QB for cold weather. Or for wind. It's the same for both teams. Both cases - especially the latter - make the competing teams shorten up their pass strategy.

 

Rather than pick and choose QBs for the possibility of inclement weather, I prefer to spend time on my run plans when it gets bad.

[Tortured Soul]

And I didn't realize that the Giants game the next week was a comfortable 52 degrees.

It started that way. I remember tailgating without a jacket. Then, five minutes into the second quarter, the heavens opened as if God was angry at Trent Edwards.

[Lori]

And I didn't realize that the Giants game the next week was a comfortable 52 degrees.

It was, when the game started. That's how Edwards managed to throw those two first-quarter TD passes. Started raining in the second quarter, and it was sleeting by the end of the game. That's the day my canopy tent died.

 

The description from the gamebook:

Game Weather: Rain and wind Temp: 52° F (11.1° C), Humidity: 32%, Wind: SSE 23 mph

Outdoor Weather: Forecast: high temp 55, but falling through day. Wind gusts to 36 at game time, poss. to 50 mph during game.

 

That site's description of the 49ers game from 2008, the one that a coworker called the most miserable gameday-weather experience he's ever had: 38°F and Mostly Cloudy

 

And the official gamebook: Game Weather: Mostly cloudy Temp: 38° F (3.3° C), Humidity: 69%, Wind: ESE 15 mph

Outdoor Weather: Forecast: periods of rain and snow, winds steady at 15-20 mph, Wind Chill: 29

 

The Cleveland blizzard: Game Weather: Cold Temp: 30° F (-1.1° C), Humidity: 93%, Wind: NorthWest 32

mph

Outdoor Weather: snowing /blowing, Wind Chill: 16

 

In other words, the linked site only included the first line of the weather description. Since the snow and 30+mph wind in that Cleveland game wasn't mentioned under "game weather," they missed it.

[Never NEVER Give-up]

Quick - send the study to Shanahan's wife & daughter!!!!!!

[bills_fan_in_raleigh]

I can tell you the stats are wrong at least on the Windy front. For example Oct 31 ,2004 against cardinals 45 degrees , rain going sideways, One punt went like 10 yards backward on first try. Two weeks earlier the game against Fins was also Windy

 

Cleve Game cited with the Blizzard.

 

NO Game this year a bit of a breeze I think the winds were 20 - 40MPH

 

Just 4 samples of games I have attended over the last 6 years

[CarolinaBill]

I think the whole point, generally, is that the snow aspect is not as bad as advertised, so the whole, cant get a cali qb, or southern qb, is bogus, we haven't taken good qbs lately, edwards was a loser in college and always hurt, losman was a workout warrior and a 1st rd reach. We shouldnt shy away from a player like clausen just because hes from cali (but played in cold weather @ND), there needs to be a better reason

[C.Biscuit97]

For a while, I’ve been wondering how much the reputation for adverse weather at Bills home games is exaggerated or real.

 

This thought came about because it seemed to me like almost every time I’ve watched a November of December from Orchard Park in the past few years, the broadcast team makes a comment about the “unusually balmy weather”.

For those of you who record and save all the games, go back and check them out. I’ll bet the weather is typical northeast autumn weather for the most part. Yeah, there’ve been a few games that were frigid, windy, snowy, rainy, etc. – but is it typical? Is is that much worse than about 10 other northeastern teams that play outdoors? I beleive I've seen more snowy conditions in New England and Denver.

 

Lately, there’s talk around here at TSW and the local WNY gin mills about drafting a QB that can handle cold weather conditions in Orchard Park, and who’s not from California or some such place where they operated in ideal conditions at teh college level.

 

How much of a factor should weather play in the decision, especially considering the inclusion of a December home game under the big top in Toronto?

 

I’ve compiled data from a web site that gives temperatures and conditions for each game from 2002-2009.

 

http://nflgateway.com/schedule.php?team=Bi...amp;season=2003

 

The weather descriptions are not all that comprehensive, and there were probably some windier than usual days not accounted for, but it gives some idea about what it was like. The weather conditions are approximate and as described on the web site, so don’t jump up my ass if they’re not exact or you remember it differently.

 

I don’t know if this was a forecast or actual conditions. It may also be that when conditions were given as “rainy”, there was a short shower for a few minutes at some point in the game. I don’t know all the details.

 

The idea of collecting this info is to get actual data and see if it would prove or disprove the preconceived perception that Bills home games frequently being played in blustery, blizzard conditions. I think you’ll find this interesting.

 

Here are the findings for home games between 2002-2009:

 

Sept. – total of 14 home games, Sunny (7), Cloudy (7 ),

avg Sept temp: 70

 

Oct. - total of 15 home games, Sunny (7), Cloudy (6 ), Rain (1), Windy (1),

avg Oct temp: 54

 

Nov. - total of 16 home games, Sunny (5), Cloudy (11 ),

Avg Nov temp: 48

 

Dec/Jan – total of 19 home games, Sunny (4), Cloudy (7), Windy (1), Rain (3), Snow (4),

avg Dec/Jan temp: 39

 

 

64 home games from 2002-2009

Average temp at Bills game: 52 degrees

Cloudy: 31 times, or 48%

Sunny: 23 times, or 36%

Rain: 4 times, or 6%

Windy: 2 times, or 4%

SNOW: 4 TIMES, or 6% !!!

 

The 2 Toronto games from 08 and 09 were counted as Sunny, with a temperature of 72 degrees.

 

There were only two January games, so they were lumped into the December stats.

 

I believe wind is probably a bigger factor than cold or snow. The Toronto games will reduce that effect as compared to pre-2008 stats. I just don't see that Bill's home conditions are all that unusual that it plays a huge part in drafting decisions.

 

Draw your own conclusions.

 

 

good stuff. The weather factor is completely overrated. There is one game a year where there is terrible weather. In those games, it doesn't matter who your QB is because they are gonna struggle to throw the ball. Losman and Edwards (each had a game against Miami) had good games in the snow. The reason they failed was because they weren't good enough, not because of the weather or that they were from Cali.

 

And while the league is becoming a passing league, with the wind at the Ralph, we should have a run first type mentality. That's why I like Lefevour. Like Flutie, he can make plays with his legs for those days when both QBs are gonna struggle to complete passes.

[Just Jack]

I would remove the Toronto games from your calculations, even though they are "home" games, they were still indoors.

[Beebe's Kid]

It was, when the game started. That's how Edwards managed to throw those two first-quarter TD passes. Started raining in the second quarter, and it was sleeting by the end of the game. That's the day my canopy tent died.

 

The description from the gamebook:

Game Weather: Rain and wind Temp: 52° F (11.1° C), Humidity: 32%, Wind: SSE 23 mph

Outdoor Weather: Forecast: high temp 55, but falling through day. Wind gusts to 36 at game time, poss. to 50 mph during game.

 

That site's description of the 49ers game from 2008, the one that a coworker called the most miserable gameday-weather experience he's ever had: 38°F and Mostly Cloudy

 

And the official gamebook: Game Weather: Mostly cloudy Temp: 38° F (3.3° C), Humidity: 69%, Wind: ESE 15 mph

Outdoor Weather: Forecast: periods of rain and snow, winds steady at 15-20 mph, Wind Chill: 29

 

The Cleveland blizzard: Game Weather: Cold Temp: 30° F (-1.1° C), Humidity: 93%, Wind: NorthWest 32

mph

Outdoor Weather: snowing /blowing, Wind Chill: 16

 

In other words, the linked site only included the first line of the weather description. Since the snow and 30+mph wind in that Cleveland game wasn't mentioned under "game weather," they missed it.

 

The SF game was bad, but no where near the Giants game. The game against the Giants was the most miserable weather I have ever experienced at a game. The rain was blowing sideways, and it was freezing by the 4th Qtr. Wretched!!

 

The QB for the weather thing is a ridiculous argument. It will be made forever, because we want to believe that we have more resilience for the elements, but truth is, where one is from really has no bearing on that. A QB will not make any better throws because he is from Sheboygan, WI.

 

Playing in weather comes down to being able to make adjustments. You have to be able to make decisions while factoring in the weather, and know your athletic ability. That's it. There are warm weather QBs that did well in the elements, and many QBs from areas on inclement weather that flamed out.

[crazyDingo]

I immediately looked up the 2007 game at Cleveland for their description. It says 30 degrees and clear.

 

The game was played in a Blizzard with driving winds and a white field throughout.

Outstanding.

[Rubes]

Quick - send the study to Shanahan's wife & daughter!!!!!!

 

That was pure LOL.

[murra]

It was 8 seasons, and that was all that was available from that web site, ok?

 

This was not a serious scientific study, so get your head out of the clouds professor.

 

I didn't attempt to give any "definitive conclusion". I was simply providing some info I thought might be interesting when compiled and viewed collectively. To do a real study and comparative analysis, it would be necessary to get full details about the conditions, and then compare with other team's home conditions. Really, I don't care all that much that I would spend more than a few minutes looking into it.

 

My bottom line was this: in my opinion, and my opinion only, the weather conditions are not as big a factor as the reputation would have one believe. It's subjective and somewhat inconclusive.

 

And yes, you can maybe cite home games with more snow than the web site suggested. I think I said that it was not definitive and detrails were sketchy - just a basic outline. But over the past 8 seasons - how many "snow days" have the Bills really had where the snow was a factor in the running or passing game? I'd be surprised if it was more the 5 or 6 times. Over 8 seasons? Big deal! In my estimation, hardly worth being at the forefront of Buffalo homes game conversation.

I guess it's just too easy to overlook the high number of perfect weather days in September and October. Who wants to hear that about Buffalo?

 

The only thing that is for certain is that some TSW readers with nothing better to do will nitpick the post and try and find flaws to show how detailed and astute they are. I'm not a statistician. Get over yourself.

 

There is something wrong with you. Learn how to take advice without crying about it.

 

I wasn't nitpicking BTW, I was giving suggestions as to how to actually go about making this argument better, because I was interested in seeing the results. In the real world people don't give you a standing ovation over every little thing. Grow up.

[evilbuffalobob]

I've been to about 20 games in Buff over the years, over any/all months and over half of them were either in frigid cold, windy, or wet. Please don't become a scientist.