Cash

I'm not the biggest SU fan, but I definitely liked Shamarko a lot. No one is going to be happy with the comparison I'm about to make, but here it is: He reminds me of Donte Whitner, except a little bigger and a better athlete. Very good in run support, physical, big hitter, makes a lot of tackles, didn't really make many big plays at SU. For a guy who was probably the best athlete on the field in most games (or close to it -- I wasn't surprised by his sick combine numbers), I think a lot of us expected more in terms of interceptions, forced fumbles, sacks on blitzes, etc. He only finished with 2 career INTs, both this past year. I wouldn't call Shamarko a disappointment, because he was a good player, and I don't remember him blowing all kinds of coverages or getting run over like Whitner, but his upside at SU was higher than his production turned out to be. Still, I'd absolutely draft him in the middle rounds. He's a good/smart safety and an elite NFL athlete for the position. I think he'll be a good player.

Same methodology for the 2004 draft: Eli Manning - NYG (starter) - please don't start any nonsense about how he was drafted by the Chargers. It was a draft-day trade. Whether the trade occurred before the selections or after is irrelevant. Larry Fitzgerald - ARI (starter) Philip Rivers - SD (starter) Ben Roethlisberger - PIT (starter) D.J. Williams - DEN (backup) Will Smith - NO (starter) Vince Wilfork - NE (starter) Steven Jackson - STL (starter) Chris Gamble - CAR (starter) I don't have time to do the 2nd round, but I will do the 2006 first round: D'Brickashaw Ferguson - NYJ (starter) A.J. Hawk - GB (starter) Vernon Davis - SF (starter) Michael Huff - OAK (starter) Haloti Ngata - BAL (starter) Chad Greenway - MIN (starter) Tamba Hali - KC (starter) Davin Joseph - TB (starter in 2011, missed all last year w/ injury, may be a backup going forward) DeAngelo Williams - CAR (part-time starter) Marcedes Lewis - JAX (starter) Nick Mangold - NYJ (starter) Mathias Kiwanuka - NYG (starter) So 9 from 2004 (8 starters), 8 from 2005 (7 starters), and 12 from 2006 (arguably 12 starters, though I wouldn't necessarily buy the argument). 2005 seems to be a slight dip in terms of 1st-round quality, because you'd expect this number to go down every year you go back. I imagine the biggest dip would be between 5 years back and 6 years back, since most 1st-rounders get 5 year deals.

But does he have a nose for the ball? In his first 3 years (1 as a part-time starter, 2 as a full-time starter), Te'o had a total of 0 interceptions. The 7 in his senior year look really fluky. On the other hand, his pass breakups (per wikipedia) were 1, 3, 2, & 4 in his 4 years -- last year was his best, but those are fairly consistent.

Because no team (that I can think of) has ever drafted QBs in the first round in consecutive drafts, and the Bills are definitely not going to be the first. That is why. If you think that the best available QB prospect is another Blaine Gabbert, you are truly better off drafting no one than drafting him at #8. The Jaguars are STILL talking about building around Gabbert, even with a new coach and GM. Even if that's smoke, there's still the part where the Jags passed on taking another QB last year because they were committed to Gabbert. Now, if the Bills wait even till the 2nd round to draft a QB, and he stinks, then we absolutely could see the Bills draft a QB in the 1st next year. But in the real world, giving up on a 1st-rounder after 1 year simply isn't done. And drafting another QB in the 1st is absolutely a form of giving up on the last guy.

Very interested to see quotes from Nix et al w/ regard to this. I'm guessing it'll be "chance to compete for the job". Can't think T-Jax would've re-signed this early without at least that promise. Also can't imagine the Bills would be dumb enough to sell him as much more than that. But I've been surprised before. Most interesting implication of this is that it gives the Bills leverage/options with respect to Fitz. Is T-Jack really any worse? Bills likely want Fitz to restructure to save cap room and real cash. Cutting him saves tons of cash, but no cap room. With the added leverage of "we're happy to have TJ play caretaker while we develop a rookie", they might be able to get Fitz to agree to a restructure.

Very sad to see McGee go, but I'm not surprised, given the injury history. Still one of my favorite Bills ever. Very solid starting CB, elite kick returner, and had a nose for the endzone. I believe he was the first player in NFL history to have a kick return TD and interception return TD in the same game. McGee's home throwback was the first (and so far only) Bills jersey I bought, after his Pro Bowl performance almost singlehandedly won me my fantasy league. (We play IDPs and count return yards.) Best wishes to Terrance, and I hope he recovers enough to make a comeback.

I don't have much to add, but I do want to thank Dibs for all the effort. Very interesting read and much appreciated!

The grading system appears to be a scale of I, D, G, M, or E. Very clear; definitely no need to explain that.

Good post! Based on Marrone's track record at SU and Crossman's track record in the NFL, I am expecting our special teams to suck next year. Or at least the coverage units. I don't know how much coaching can screw up a really good return man (if Leodis comes back next year, we'll probably find out), and it's hard to imagine coaching having any real impact on FG accuracy.

From the OP's link (bolding mine): PLEASE let that scout not be one of ours.

This (and your other posts in this thread) are wonderful analysis. Thanks so much for taking the time to post them!

Not necessarily. Could easily sign Alex Smith and draft a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round. Especially w/ Russell Wilson tearing it up this year, it's easy (though totally disingenuous) to spin a 3rd-round guy as our potential 8-10 year "franchise" guy.

Doesn't make much sense to pay Fitz $10mil next year AND sign a veteran AND draft a rookie. Two out of those three, yes. I tend to favor this route as well. Moore, Alex Smith, maybe a trade for Matt Flynn... I don't think Moore or Smith would be appreciably better than Fitz (Flynn is a total wildcard, but I wouldn't count on him as an upgrade till we saw it), but they'd cost less than $10mil and would have the added benefit of not being the entrenched starter. If Fitz gets beat out by a rookie next year, and the rookie struggles, it might divide the locker room. If Matt Moore gets beat out, there'll be a lot less veterans to get his back. On the other hand, I don't really like any of the QBs in this draft, which makes me want to start whomever we draft. Either I'm proved wrong, and we've got our guy, or I'm proved right, and we're able to move on and draft a new guy in 2014. Either way, I'd like to get a good idea of what we've got. I don't want another Todd Collins situation where we "groom" him on the bench for 2 years only to find out that he can't actually play. Of course, Collins was sitting behind Kelly, so it made a lot of sense to develop a young QB that way. But I think I would rather throw a rookie into the fire than have him sit behind Fitz or Moore or Smith. The article you linked is talking only about cap savings, not about cash savings. This article (and this one, which the first one links to) talks about the guarantees in his deal, and if they're accurate, there aren't any guarantees against skill left. In other words, the Bills don't have to pay out any more actual cash if they cut Fitzpatrick. There would still be a $10.45 million charge against their salary cap, but they wouldn't have to cut a check. Given the new regime and the very real cash savings of cutting Fitz (Moore or Smith could probably be signed for something in the neighborhood of $5mil this year, including signing bonus), I am expecting him to be cut next month. But the Bills have surprised me before!

No, I'm specifically talking about the short and long term starting QB position, and I think that's what this thread is about. That specific position was almost 100% ignored. The only moves Nix has made that addressed the starting QB (whether competition or outright replacement) were cutting Trent Edwards and giving Ryan Fitzpatrick a contract extension. In terms of acquiring new players to compete for the starting job now or down the road, he has done nothing. (You could argue that Levi Brown was supposed to "develop" into a guy who could push for the starting job, but that's a really weak argument.)

I'll say it. And all his tackles are 5 yards past the line of scrimmage.

Buddy Nix has repeatedly and specifically identified a need for a long-term starter at quarterback, sometimes even while endorsing Fitx as the current starter. (Something along the lines of, "we love Fitz, but he's not young. We want a guy who can step in when he's gone and start for 10, 12 years.") None of your above examples should be considered an attempt to address Nix's own stated need. He didn't bring in Brohm. 7th-rounders are drafted as camp fodder, and it's a pleasant surprise when they make the team. There's no sane way to claim that Levi Brown was a legit attempt to find a franchise guy, any more than buying a Powerball ticket could be considered responsible retirement planning. Thigpen and Young were brought in as veteran backups in case Fitz got hurt. There was no thought of either challenging Fitz for the starting job or being handed the reins once Fitz got old. This was made abundantly clear by the team when each was signed. T-Jack is just weird, because the team wasn't as clear about why they traded for him, and I don't think I've ever heard of a guy being traded for and then being a healthy scratch for all 16 games. If you want proof of the Bills' dysfunction, there you have it. In any case, T-Jack was never given an opportunity to compete for playing time this year, and at 29 years old, couldn't be considered a long-term option. I would put this acquisition into the same category as Thigpen and Young So while Nix has made a few attempts to address the Bills' backup QB situation, he has made only one move to address the Bills' starting QB situation in the short or long term: Namely, giving Ryan Fitzpatrick a contract extension. Other than that, he has completely ignored the starting QB position. He's payed a lot of lip service to addressing that position, but hasn't actually made any acquisitions.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Nix has specifically stressed the need to draft a franchise QB before each of his 3 drafts. And yet he's only drafted a 7th-round prospect who was cut in camp and not offered a spot on the practice squad. And in those 3 drafts, numerous quality starters have emerged. It's not very fair to count Bradford, Newton, Luck, or RG3 against Nix, because he would've had to trade up for them (and Luck essentially couldn't have been acquired at any price), but it is *extremely* fair to count Dalton, Kaepernick, and Wilson against him, particularly since the players he drafted immediately in front of those three have been abject busts so far. So Nix has been a failure in this respect. By his own standards, even. If he says he needs to get a QB in the draft, then doesn't get one because "there wasn't one that we liked at that spot", but it turns out that 2 good starters were available at that spot, he failed at his job. Beyond that, his job is to build a team that wins football games, so he's failed at the overall object of his job.

This is also the scenario that scares me. That's why I'd kinda prefer a QB taken in the 2nd round this year. (Unless Geno Smith drops? I think Geno's pretty good. Nowhere near Luck or RG3 as a prospect, though.) Because if a 2nd-rounder flops, it's not tough to come back and draft a QB in the first the following year. (See Jimmy Claussen/Cam Newton.) NFL teams are extremely conservative and extremely risk averse, and there no way that a team is going to draft a QB at #8 overall, then draft another QB in the 1st round the following year. (Unless the first QB's career was ended by injury or illness or something.) Maybe the NFL's culture will eventually change to a point that that could happen, but we're not close to that now. So if we draft QB at #8, he'd better be good, because he'll get at least 2 and probably 3 years to show that he is.

Interesting. Certainly an impressive highlight reel (the "knee didn't touch" punt return was SICK), he's got ideal size, and he definitely looks like a natural receiver. Physically very reminiscent of Dez Bryant. The concerns: 1.) He's college fast, but not NFL fast. Don't really care about this one. Megatron & AJ Green are probably the 2 best WRs and also the 2 best deep threats in the league right now, and neither has elite NFL speed. Patterson looks fast enough, especially at his size. 2.) He only played 1 season that I can tell, putting up 46 catches for 778 yards and 5 TDs. Those are unimpressive numbers, and not a lot of experience. Anyone who follows college football care to weigh in on why? College WRs numbers don't necessarily translate well to pro success, but to draft a guy in the top 10, you'd like a little more experience at least. Can this guy run routes? Can he learn a playbook? Can he beat press coverage?

Finally, the authoritative word on this story: http://www.nma.tv/manti-teo-notre-dame-football-star-hoaxed-hoaxster/

Well said, as were SJBF's posts upthread. I would add that even beyond the overt lies (we caught each other's eye after the Stanford game, vacationed in Hawaii, etc.), Te'o still comes across poorly in the scenario where he's the victim. His family thought he was going to marry this girl, Te'o talked about her as the love of his life, etc. Now the story is that this was an online-only (and also telephone) relationship. Those two accounts don't jibe well with one other, even though they could technically both be true. If Te'o's the victim, here's what he needs to do: First, provide the type of evidence SJBF is talking about. There should be mounds of it, since Te'o alleged that they would have 8-hour phone conversations and talk on the phone every night. Second, he needs to produce the female hoaxer who was talking on the phone with him every night. Deadspin has given us Tuiasasopo, who seems to be the principle hoaxer, but if Te'o's story is to be believed, there must've been a woman who was just as deeply involved. I'm guessing a mastermind hoaxer of this magnitude would've made all calls on a burner phone, but she would have to have some significant connection to Tuiasasopo. Maybe ND's private investigators already found this woman, and that's why ND is so willing to stand by Te'o? Maybe. But if that's the case, the info will be leaked sooner or later, or the press will find her on their own. Either way, if the female hoaxer exists, she can be found, and if Te'o wants to clear his name, she must be found. Those things would be enough to convince me that his current story is true, and that what he's guilty of is being an idiot and an embellisher. (I.e., embellishing the significance of his online-only relationship by lying about how often they talked on the phone and met in person.) EDIT: A couple people have mentioned this, but it bears repeating: If Te'o was so in love with this girl to the point his family thought they would marry, why didn't he ever visit her grave or her family? I get the reason he never went to the fake funeral, and it's possible that the hoaxers set up a fake address for him to send flowers to, but she fake died in September. He then went 3 months without paying a visit to the "love of [his] life"'s final resting place or family? ND even went to USC after the fake death, right? That's a pretty quick trip up the coast up to NoCal -- why didn't he take it? This doesn't prove anything -- everyone grieves in their own way -- but it seems odd to me, and it doesn't pass the smell test.

I didn't think of the gay angle until people brought it up here. It's the only non-sociopathic explanation I can think of so far. Raymond Burr and his publicist apparently made up a fake wife and child who fake died in a fake plane crash to explain why he could never marry again and would stay single forever. Bingo. Bingo. And claimed to have vacationed in Hawaii. The Dad angle is interesting to me. He claimed to have talked to her over the phone after she got released from Imaginary Hospital. Was Dad lying, or was there a female hoaxer? If so, who is she? If Dad was lying, this makes the twitter necro-beard angle pretty suspect. However, if Dad was duped, that's still very much in play. Obvious troll is obvious. Two ways: 1.) Having a known sociopath on your roster is not good for team chemistry. 2.) The argument in favor of Te'o is that his physical skills aren't the best, but he's such an amazing leader and will definitely be the heart & soul of your defense, that'll make up for it. Te'o boosters frequently refer to the grandma/girlfriend death story to point out his strength of character. But if he made up the girlfriend, that shows not only an extreme lack of character, but the presence of some extremely unpleasant personality traits. And since it's public now, all of his other teammates will know this as well. It'll be very hard for him to be the team leader at that point. Bolded part is key. No acknowledgement of his prior claims to have met her in person at the Stanford game, or to have brought her with him to Hawaii. Te'o either lied in his earlier interviews or he's lying here.

Crossman's ranks: 2005 (CAR): 5th overall/10th weighted 2006 (CAR): 24th/23rd 2007 (CAR): 30th/28th 2008 (CAR): 10th/8th 2009 (CAR): 29th/25th 2010 (DET): 11th/15th 2011 (DET): 29th/31st 2012 (DET): 30th/23rd Pros: Has real NFL experience in the job he's doing for us. Has had some success in his position. Cons: Has had more failure than success. Has presided over some really awful units.. All in all, I have no problems with replacing DeHaven -- our coverage units were bad last year, the punters and kickers didn't seem to be handled well, and I don't give the ST coach much credit for a dynamic returner like McKelvin. McKelvin was an awesome KR/PR in college and very good with the Bills prior to DeHaven. I don't know that Crossman will do any better, but at least he's had a couple good seasons. Maybe he's just been laden with really bad talent on the special teams units? Don't like this hire, but I don't hate it either. Assuming Bobby April's still pissed at the Bills, I don't know who's available who would be a better candidate. I'd also like to point out that Marrone's SU teams were consistently awful on special teams. Just terrible. Won't necessarily translate to the NFL, but it is relevant.

Haven't listened to the interview yet, but read most of the quotes. Very enthused by what I've seen. My reservations about Pettine were 1.) How much of the D was run by Rex Ryan, and 2.) Is he a 3-4 guy? Because if so, that sets us back. #1 won't be answered until we see the D in games, so I won't worry about it till then. But I'm definitely not worried about #2 after Pettine's comments. I feel pretty good about this hire. Pettine has been able to learn from a lot of greats, and hopefully he's ready to come into his own.

Drafted 9th overall. 2nd round, 38th overall 5th round, 154th overall Undrafted in 241 selections 15th overall 9th overall, and isn't it a little early to start calling him a premium player? Carolina's defense wasn't exactly setting the world on fire last year. My point is not that Kuechly sucks. It's that either A.) He hasn't become a premium player yet, or B.) Even having a premium player at MLB doesn't do much for your defense. Obviously having a good MLB, especially in terms of the defensive quarterbacking, is good. But I disagree that it's critical. I'll take Aldon Smith over Patrick Willis 100 times out of 100. Who was the Giants' premium MLB in either of their 2 recent Super Bowl runs? Here's a quick summary of my argument: 1.) I disagree that it's critical to have a premium MLB, but do acknowledge that it's good to have one. 2.) I don't think drafting an interior LB in the top 10 is smart, because most of them don't become premium players (more on that later). I will concede that if your MLB winds up becoming an elite player/defensive quarterback, then that's worth a top 10 pick. 3.) I don't see much evidence that suggests that Manti Te'o will be a transformative player on the level of Ray Lewis, Urlacher, Junior Seau, Singletary, etc. 4.) Therefore, I do not want the Bills to draft Manti Te'o at #8 overall. No prediction on whether they will or not. Lastly, here are the ILB/MLBs drafted in the top half of the first round since 2000. I don't find the list very impressive, but some may disagree. Luke Kuechly Rolando McLain Aaron Curry Brian Cushing Keith Rivers Jerrod Mayo Patrick Willis Lawrence Timmons A.J. Hawk Ernie Sims Derrick Johnson Jonathan Vilma Dan Morgan LaVar Arrington Brian Urlacher