BillsVet

7 years ago Washington traded Champ Bailey for Clinton Portis. Who's gotten the better of that deal? Portis has been ineffective and was cut this week; Bailey was re-signed because he's still a very good CB. RB remains the easiest position to acclimate to in the NFL (unless you're the 9th overall pick) and found in abundance. Only the Bills spend multiple first round picks on them. A freaking men. This franchise has no vision, on or off the field, for where it wants to be in 3-5 years. Seems every year is the next one year plan.

I used Tyson Jackson to illustrate a larger point: that top 5 picks should be spent on the marquee positions of QB, LT, and 43DE. Typically, a team is drafting this high because they're bad at all or 2 of these positions. This year, it's a deep draft for defensive lineman, but in a 34 scheme, the DE's are found more easily than a RDE in a 43. What's the difference taking the top 34DE over the 3rd best in a draft this deep at the position? Probably not much and so I'd prefer to use that 3rd on a harder to find position consistent with my team needs. My argument relates to getting the most impact out of the position. Teams don't draft LB's 3rd overall, because the likelihood of finding one later is higher whereas finding a franchise QB, top LT, or great RDE is generally in high demand and taken higher. Unfortunately, there aren't any top shelf LT's or Matt Ryan's to take at 3 this year. They're in no-man's land, which is why I can see them taking Gabbert considering how much the 3rd pick will get paid.

The problem a 3-4 team faces taking a DE this high is return on the investment. KC took Tyson Jackson 3rd a few years ago, and while's he's OK, what kind of impact does a really good 3-4 DE make? Considering the salary, it's not worth it unless you're getting a Bruce Smith. Third is too high for a rush LB, and there aren't any top OT's going third either (not that Nix likes taking OT's). Nix/Gailey/Wannstedt know they don't have the horses to be a 34, nor can they rush the passer with their existing 43 DE's. And as much as Nix says they're drafting for a 34, they used 2 top 75 picks last year on players to fit that scheme. Taking a DE this high is using premium resources on a position they've theoretically already drafted for. This is not an anti-Cam Jordan thing as much as it is a staffing issue. It'd be nice if the Bills were a 4-3 defense and/or there was a QB worthy of the third pick. They might be the former, but there isn't any QB to fit the latter.

I don't think Nix values the OT position like most NFL teams do, but even if he does, it seems like every year Buffalo has more important needs somewhere else on the field. And let's be honest the reason for this is moving from a 4-3 to a 3-4 last off-season. When you look at a guy like Mike Tomlin, he was a 4-3 guy who went to Pittsburgh and kept the 3-4, which is what the Steelers were built for. The Bills created additional needs by deciding they absolutely need a new defensive scheme, which precludes them from improving the 2 most important OL positions: LT and RT. It's one thing to have a huge rebuild ahead of you as an incoming GM and HC. It's another to add to the task, which is my major criticism of the new regime because rebuilding doesn't have to take 3 off-seasons.

Most teams use higher picks on OT's and find their interior OL via the later rounds or even UDFA's. Buffalo's done just the opposite and finds itself with only late round picks, UDFA's, and street free agents for OT's. Erik Pears, Colin Brown, Cordaro Howard, Ed Wang, Jason Watkins and Demetrius Bell all arrived via these routes. They really don't have a starting caliber OT on the roster right now, and that includes Bell. The Bills wanted to be a running team last year and could not do so, in large part due to very little talent at OT. If it weren't for (once again) having so many other positional needs, this team should go OT within the first two rounds. As much as I'd like to see them pick up Tyson Clabo, I agree that Nix isn't high on spending a lot of resources on OT's, draft or free agency.

Not watching the combine?

The point is not Rogers' ability to play as a 3-4 NT, it's Buffalo and what they're doing on the DL. In the span of 1 off-season, they signed or drafted 3 defensive lineman for their new defense with only Dwan Edwards getting regular minutes until hurt in 2010. If they were so high on Carrington and Troup based on their draft position, I'd expect those two to be starting at LDE and NT respectively in 2011. If not, and they've used more high picks or free agent dollars, then those players aren't developing as quickly as they should. It's not "trot out the same DL and hope for a better result."

Why would Williams be a "beast" in the 3-4? As a full time member of the DL, Buffalo yielded 170 yards rushing per game with him playing the nose or almost a 3 tech. He lacks the arm length to handle taller OT's who he'd line up as a 5 tech against. Shaun Rogers, OTOH, while unmotivated at times, is a true 3-4 NT who has played the position 3 seasons and went to a Pro Bowl in 2008 with Cleveland. Not saying Buffalo needs to sign him, but that's the type of player they need. I would guess they're hoping Troup can be the NT, which displaces their best defender in Williams. Either way, the defensive line is a mess of players who are 3-4 or 4-3 types. Buffalo invested some serious resources into their DL last year by signing Dwan Edwards to a 4 yr 18M contract, and then using a 2nd and 3rd on Troup and Carrington respectively. To go back there and use more free agent dollars and/or a high pick is neglecting other areas (OT, LB, TE).

Lonnie Harvey was 342 and he didn't even last through training camp. There's more to playing NT than being the biggest guy on the DL.

Didn't the government finish the census? There's no consensus right now about much of anything. Teams still have a long way to go in determining their draft board, especially with free agency probably not starting as normal this season.

If Bell struggles to run block at LT facing RDE's, how we he fare against stouter LDE's as a RT? Bell is not a powerful blocker in the mold of a Jon Runyan type RT who moves people. He's more of a finesse blocker, and even at that not strong at the point of attack.

San Diego's draft history includs all of 1 pick (Marcus McNeill) used on an OT within the top 3 rounds from 01-07 while Buddy was there. It makes no sense to draft a RB 9th overall and then put former practice squad types, UDFA's, and late round picks at OT blocking for him. A lot of people here said Jackson and Spiller had to fight for their yards, as evidenced by their paltry YPC average. Well, if they're serious about improving the run game, they'd better find a way to upgrade the OT situation. But this is a common theme in Buffalo: add a player at a skill position and then not support them with the linemen to help them. It's happened on both sides of the ball for better than a decade. There may not be a top flight LT available, but this year's crop seems deep from the mid to late first into the second. It's a good time to find a RT and then they can replace Bell next season.

Well, we read a lot on TBD about Nix being a top 5 talent evaluator, which isn't something I've read from NFL folks . Clabo was cut by a few teams, but I'm making the point that the GM isn't as flawless in talent evaluation as many would like him to be. Attributing all the personnel success in SD must include the poor moves, such as signing David Boston and missing on guys they signed off the street, like Clabo.

Ironically, Clabo was signed by the Chargers in 2004 and waived after 6 days. I wonder who their Pro Personnel Director was back then? Clabo-Falcons Website Would be a good signing, but the GM would rather sleep during free agency if that ever comes. Who do the Raiders plan on getting rid of from their OL?

The free agent situation has worsened in Buffalo. During Marv's first year as GM, Ryan Pickett came in for a visit and ended up going to GB. It seemed like Buffalo had a chance to sign him, but it was really a competition between STL and GB. Flash forward a few years and Buffalo is barely getting players in for free agent visits. DT Jimmy Kennedy was a backup for Minnesota who ultimately remained there, despite playing for a team who'd use him as a backup. He came in for a visit and left without signing. I know Buddy talks about not being a fan of UFA, but when he was Pro Personnel Director in SD they signed a few name guys. I just don't think he has the budget and needs a reason not to be a player. Losing for 11 years and hiring people like Buddy and Chan are noticed by players and agents alike. There's a very uncertain future with the owner and very little talent on the team. It's no wonder most players use Buffalo as a bargaining chip.

If you compare SB participants versus WS participants since the 2001 season, the numbers are very similar: 14 SB participants versus 15 WS participants. No one's defined success or competitiveness here, but I'd be the first one to point out that there will always be teams that remain bad-mediocre while other teams are successful more often than not. In the AFCE alone you've got that situation with NE having been at or near the top for a decade while Buffalo fumbles around in the same period. And that's with a salary cap and the worst teams having the best draft picks. Ultimately, it's the people managing these teams who either make more good decisions or do not that lead to on-field success. There's no way to ensure every team has a capable owner and/or GM that consistently make good decisions to put the best team on the field. Bob Kraft hired Belichick in 2000 and not long after RW went with Donahoe/G. Williams. RW followed that up with Marv, then Brandon, and now Nix. Meanwhile, NE still has the same HC whose system is very successful. The NFL can't possibly force RW to hire someone of Belichick or Pioli or Dimitroff's acumen no matter how much they want to.

The only difference here is someone's talking about redistributing quarterbacks and not greenbacks. Ironically, the NFL is perhaps the most socialist of any professional league, and there are still several teams stuck at the bottom while others are perennial successes. You can't legislate teams into success because some people make more mistakes than others.

Play on the field is the major indicator of a player's success, but it's not the only one. No one's looking for a workout warrior who knows the events and if you want to put words in my mouth, go ahead. But if I'm drafting a player 3rd, he'd better be more than just someone who shows up on tape. He'd better have a great work ethic and fit whatever scheme Buffalo is looking to run, particularly on defense. It would also be nice to see free agency transpire before the draft, but we know that may not happen.

The best defensive front 7 prospect available when the combine and individual workouts are over. It's too early to be making declarative statements.

Cam Newton ain't Andrew Luck. Besides, isn't the off-season when teams are deliberately trying to confuse each other? I mean, if Buddy Nix is so adept at confusing teams, aren't others capable of doing the same? If Carolina had a chance to get Luck, then yeah I can see Clausen getting tossed to the curb. But I doubt a team would get rid of Clausen after a season of playing for the worst NFL team just to take Cam Newton who is a project QB that'll need at least a year to acclimate.

When was the last time a team traded out of a top 3 pick? It was 2001 when Butler gave ATL the 1st for the Falcons 5th overall and the first pick in the 2nd. That was 10 years ago for goodness' sake. Unless there's a rookie wage scale in place for the 2011 draft, no team is moving up for any player who could significantly alter their franchise finances. Not even for Cam Newton, who is a project QB and as a top 3 pick would command at least 40M guaranteed.

Last year Marty Hurney spent a 2nd on Clausen, so I don't think they're going to dump him after a season. We're always told here how it takes 3 years to evaluate a player, and in 1 year I don't think Carolina just gets rid of their 2010 2nd round QB. Now, with Ron Rivera on board, I see them taking the best front 7 defender available, be it Bowers, Fairley, whomever. Denver is in the same boat, and was 31st against the run last year. They'll go 4-3 from McDaniels 3-4, and so they need to stock the front of their defense with players. They're not going QB with Orton and Tebow on the roster.

Good thing they re-signed him to that 2 year contract extension in 09 that ran through 2012 and guaranteed him 12M.

But has anything really changed at OBD? I've never seen a franchise where the owner himself publicly defends his Director of College Scouting. What team has to trot their owner out to support someone who's down the totem pole of organizational power who happens to draw up the draft board for 9 years that have been so lackluster? Despite hiring Buddy and Doug Whaley, I'll always have this sinking suspicion that RW or his people are "helping" to make picks on draft day. And if Cam Newton is the pick this year, well, we can all draw our own conclusions. That includes the homerish pollyanas who revel in whatever the team does, despite their woeful track record during the off-season's most important weekend.

Buffalo drafted 8th and 26th in 2006, 12th in 2007, 11th in 2008, then 11th and 28th in 2009. That's six first rounders, of which McKelvin and Wood are the only guys under contract that will probably make the team in 2011. I don't think most Bills fans, especially homers, realize how horrible it is to come away with a backup CB and G/C from 6 first round picks. If RW was committed to finding a real GM from 06-09 and not someone he knew personally, I have a feeling this team wouldn't be watching players like Haloti Ngata or David Harris get the franchise tag from other teams. They'd be in Bills uniforms on Sundays come September. But this is the price you pay when a nonagenarian and his bean counters are making decisions on how to staff a NFL front office and who they select during draft weekend. Four years wasted and another rebuild trudging slowly along.