Bush has 178 EV wrapped up, Kerry has 153.
Throw in the EV that is leaning (more strongly than tossups) towards either candidate.....Bush has 249, Kerry has 203.
Then you have the tossups......Bush leaning ones are Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio. Kerry leaning ones are Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. New Mexico is a virtual dead heat.
Bush's objective is to win Florida and Ohio. Both have polled favorably for the Prez. And he certainly could still grab Pennsylvania. Kerry has about a 2 point lead in PA.
There could be a 269-269 tie.....Bush wins Florida and Ohio.....Kerry has to win Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. I don't think Kerry is going to win all of those 8 states.
The left-leaning Zogby tracking poll has Bush up by 4 points today.
Kerry is in the thick of things, but he has a lot of work to do to win the election.