mannc
-
Posts
15,622 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by mannc
-
-
this FO apparently doesn't think the Bills need a QB, or at least they want you to believe they feel that way.
And therein lies the problem.
-
Every team in the NFL could have drafted Russell Wilson. But only the Bills are idiots for passing.
The problem is, by the begining of the third round, no team in the league needed a quarterback as badly as the Bills did. It is inexcusable that, despite this, Buddy and Co. did not even consider taking a quarterback in the 2012 draft.
-
It's true that lots of posters wanted to draft Wilson in Round 3. I was (half-heartedly) one of them. But my opinion was based entirely on media reports and highlight film. I never saw the guy play an entire game. Like a broken clock, even I'm right twice a day.
Lots of us will make hypothetical draft selections that will pan out. Playing draft guru is like any other game of chance. You win some, you lose some. But professional GMs improve their odds by intensive research by a team of experienced scouts that none of us have the support, time or expertise to replicate.
I'm going to guess that if we knew everything about Wilson that Buddy knew, we wouldn't have taken him either. Now, it might prove true that those reservations were groundless. We'll see.
Remember, even the guru, Bill Walsh, recommended Trent Edwards. Great MLB batters hit .300 and the best NFL GMs aren't much better. I'm not going to condemn Nix for not drafting Wilson. Every single NFL GM - without exception - misses on some picks. It's the nature of the business. I'm nore interested in the totality of Nix's work. And it seems to me that over the past two years we've been acquiring good NFL talent faster than we've been losing it - and more efficiently than the average NFL team.
Well, obviously other teams passed on Wilson, as well, but the Bills had a serious need for a promising young QB prospect. By the 3d round of the draft, was there another team in the entire league as starved for QB help as the Bills? If Nix didn't like Wilson, there is no excuse for not taking Cousins, or Foles, or even the guy from Boise State in a later round. Nix's failure to realize that the Bills had (and still have) a dire need for an infusion of QB talent was inexcusable and probably set the franchise back a year or two in its rebuilding project. Unfortunately, as the T. Jackson trade indicates, Buddy is now realizing this too late. The Seahawks certainly understood this and picked Wilson even though they had two serviceable or better QB's on their roster already, including one to whom they had just shelled out big bucks.
-
So 2 out of 9 turned out to be usable players. That's a 22% success rate.
Now, who would you consider a good drafting team? The Patriots? Lets look at the Patriots 2009 draft.
Patrick Chung - Starter
Ron Brace - 3rd String
Darius Butler - CUT
Sebastian Vollmer- Starter
Brandon Tate - CUT
Tyrone Mckenzie - CUT
Rich Ohrnberger - CUT
George Bussey - CUT
Jake Ingram - CUT
Myron Pryor - 4th String
Julian Edelman - 3rd String
Darryl Richard - CUT
So the Patriots were 2 out of 12. Which is a 16% success rate.
Certainly not a great draft. But then again, the Pats had far fewer holes to fill and they were drafting later than the Bills in every round.
-
So once the season starts and say, Wilson struggles when faced with actual game-planned defenses and has trouble adjusting, do you reserve your right to change your mind? Or are you pretty much convinced that Wilson is a no-brainer after one preseason start?
The people who defend Nix's failure to draft Wilson (or Cousins, or Foles) with our third pick last year keep saying, "But they haven't done anything yet; it's only pre-season." True enough I suppose, but Wilson apparently did enough in the meaningless pre-season to win the job from last year's starter and the presumptive starter to whom the Seahawks are paying an awful lot of money. On the other hand, if us naysayers wait until Wilson wins Rookie of the Year to second guess Nix and company, then the "In Nix we Trust" crowd will say, "Anyone can second guess Buddy with the advantage of hindsight; the draft is a crapshoot." The fact is, a lot of posters on this board wanted Nix to draft Wilson in round 3 and said so at the time, based presumably on his outstanding play at a major program in major football conference, and based on the fact that the Bills needed a promising young QB or two in the pipeline. From all the available evidence those posters were right and Nix was dead wrong. Is it possible that Wilson will flame out and Fitz will prove that his performance this pre-season and the first 6 years of his NFL career was an aberration? Sure, anything's possible, I guess.
-
I can't blame Buddy for 2010.
Why not? Wasn't he the general manager? Let's face it, 2010 was a very poor draft and it started with picking a scatback early in the 1st round. Regardless whether Spiller becomes a decent RB in this league (and after two years, that's far from certain), he was taken way too high. It's exactly the kind of decision that has put this franchise where it is today. Any GM who picks a RB in the top 30 should be fired on the spot. It is just too easy to find good running backs lower in the draft or in FA (see Fred Jackson). Cleveland, for example, was insane to use the third pick in the draft on a RB this year; I was praying that Richardson would be off the board when the Bills picked.
And as someone else pointed out, the 2011 draft is not really looking all that great, especially when one considers that pretty much anyone with half a brain could have selected Dareus with the first pick. And even that pick could be questioned when one considers that the two players selected after Dareus have already made the Pro Bowl, especially when one of them was at a major position of need (WR).
-
None of the rookie QB's have proven a thing yet. Please save the "we should have drafted X QB" talk for later on.
Well, it looks like Wilson has the inside track on the starting job in Seattle, beating out Flynn (who the Seahawks paid a lot of money for) and Jackson. So far, he looks like the kind of QB that would be nice to have on our roster. The point isn't that Wilson could be starting for the Bills this year, or that he's better than Fitz. It's that the Bills had (and still have) a serious need for a QB of the future. Wouldn't you agree that it would be better to have the potential future starter on our roster now, so that he can develop, rather than reaching for one next year? It's not necessarily true that there will be another Russell Wilson available next year, or if there is, that Buddy will be able to identify him.
So let me get this straight:
If TJ becomes a good player and then they are able to draft a qb who has differentiated himself from the pack - that is a bad thing? Every year has kirk cousins, nick foles, and russell wilson's and next year is no different. The Bills are giving Fitz a chance here (whether you agree or not) and have vy in the wings if fitz falters/gets hurt. Why would it be a bad thing to use a first or second on a qb this year? I have felt since the end of the draft this year that will happen. The lines are solid and the depth has been added next year the qb of the future will be added.
I guess one of my points is that we should have added a potential QB of the future this year instead of next year. If Fitz flames out this year, it would suck to have to entrust the starting QB job to a rookie next year. And if Fitz is injured, wouldn't you rather give your QB of the future some experience, rather than seeing VY play out the string?
-
Even though the 2012 draft seems to have been a pretty good one at this very early juncture, there really was no excuse for the Bills failing to draft Russell Wilson or Cousins in the 3d round. (I was hoping for Wilson, myself.) I believe it is a decision that will be regretted for a very long time, regardless whether TJ Graham becomes a solid contributor. If Fitz has another mediocre year, the Bills will be forced to use a first or second round pick on a QB or, even worse, give up a kings ransom to move up and pick Barkley, Jones or whomever else separates themselves from the pack this fall.
-
"Game changer"--This is now used universally and it is incredibly irritating.
"The quarterback position", as opposed to just Quarterback.
"Put the ball on the ground". What's wrong with "fumble"?
-
I'd say this is my scale:
A "B" represents an acceptable draft. Nobody's singing in the streets, nobody's really crying. It's the expected result. For each pick, you get a B for:
First round: Solid starter—a player who starts shortly after being drafted, and solidly holds down the position with minimal complaint. Terrence McGee has been a solid starter for most of his career. Add a (+) for picks 17-32 and a (-) for 1-16.
Second round: Regular starter—a player who starts consistently after being drafted, though doesn't necessarily excel. Scott Chandler would be the fit here.
Third round: Reliable depth—not necessarily a starter, but a regular substitute, and often a player in various packages. Your Chad Rineharts or David Nelsons.
4-7: One regular starter, two depth players, total. I don't grade each pick individually.
Again, those are B-graded drafts. To grade a whole thing, I'd double-weight the first round, so two shares for the first round pick, one for the 2nd, one for the 3rd, one for the balance. If you exceed the scale, you get an A, if you fall short, you start dropping. +s and -s to round it out.
Now to put it into practice:
Round Pick # Player Position College
2 5 Roscoe Parrish C
3 86 Kevin Everett Incomplete
4 122 Duke Preston Center Illinois
5 156 Eric King Cornerback Wake Forest
6 197 Justin Geisinger Offensive Guard Vanterbilt
7 236 Lionel Gates Running Back Louisville
Late picks: D
GPA: 1.5. I'm not grading Everett, and I'm not going to go investigate traded picks. Just what you do on the day.
1 8 Donte Whitner Safety Ohio State: C+ (The pick alone didn't quite rise to the B range; alone I'd give it a B-. Top half of the round costs it the additional mark.
1 26 (from Chicago Bears) John McCargo Defensive Tackle North Carolina State: F
3 70 Ashton Youboty Cornerback Ohio State: D
4 105 Ko Simpson Safety South Carolina
5 134 Kyle Williams[3] Defensive Tackle LSU
5 143 Brad Butler Offensive Tackle Virginia
6 178 Keith Ellison Linebacker Oregon State
7 216 Terrance Pennington Offensive Tackle New Mexico
7 248 Aaron Merz Guard California
Late Rounds: A+. One star, one reliable starter who mysteriously retired, depth from Ellison and Simpson. Pennington briefly started.
GPA: 1.67 (C-)
1 12 Marshawn Lynch[4] Running Back California: B-
2 34 Paul Posluzny Linebacker Penn State: B+
3 92 Trent Edwards Quarterback Stanford: B (Imagine Edwards never started. A reasonably reliable backup for several years who won't blow games for you is pretty average for a third round QB)
4 111 Dwayne Wright Running Back Fresno State
6 184 John Wendling Safety Wyoming
7 222 Derek Schouman Tight End Boise State
7 239 C. J. Ah You Defensive End Oklahoma
Late Rounds: F.
GPA: 2.33 (C+)
1 11 Leodis McKelvin Safety Troy D-
2 41 James Hardy Wide Receiver Indiana F
3 72 Chris Ellis Defensive End Virginia Tech F
4 114 Reggie Corner Cornerback Akron
4 132Supplemental Derek Fine Tight End Kansas
5 147 Alvin Bowen Linebacker Iowa State
6 179 Xavier Omon Running Back NW Missouri State
7 219 Demetrius Bell Offensive Tackle Northwestern State
7 224 Stevie Johnson Wide Receiver Kentucky
7 251Supplemental Kennard Cox Cornerback Pittsburgh
Late Round Picks: A+
GPA: 1.13
1 11 Aaron Maybin Defensive End Penn State: F
1 28 Eric Wood Center Louisville: A
2 42 Jairus Byrd[2] Safety Oregon: A+
2 51 Andy Levitre Guard Oregon State: A+
4 121 Shawn Nelson Tight End Southern Miss
5 147 Nic Harris Safety Oklahoma
6 183 Cary Harris Cornerback USC
7 220 Ellis Lankster Cornerback West Virginia
Late round picks: F
GPA: 2.38
Thoughts?
My thought is that this is about as solid an analysis as one is ever likely to find on this subject. Sincere thanks.
Now what I would like to see is context. I think it's safe to say that OBD's draft performance during these five years was poor, but it's hard to say how poor without knowing how the Bills' competition did, using the same methodology. If such an analysis were to show similarly poor performances by the Jets, Phins, and/or NE, then perhaps the Bills' failure should be attributed to other factors, such as coaching, bad free agent signings, or just bad luck. We all assume, probably with some justification, that the Bills' front office has been a bumbling mess over the past decade when it comes to the draft, but off the top of my head, I can think of a lot of major busts taken by NYJ, MIA, and NE during the same period. The problem is, I'm not sure on this board we could ever get the level of knowledgable analysis of those teams' draft performance that SilverMike has given us here.
-
The very best talent evaluators in the world are wrong more than 50% of the time.
So true. That's why I have never believed in the BPA nonsense. How can anyone have any idea who the best player available is, regardless of position? Better to pick good players at positions of need. A lot of these so called BPAs turn out to be not very good at any position.
-
For those lamenting that TJ was taken too soon, you should look no further than NE's pick in the 2nd round. He was off many board completely, but there were the Pats taking him where they did.
It's easy to say so-and-so will be there later in the draft, but unless you have secret video into every war room in the league, you can never be sure what another team is really thinking.
One think I'd love to see is a Wikipedia page that goes over Kiper's (or any other "expert's") mocks over the last 10-20 years and see how right, or wrong they really were. So many people glace at someone else's research and somehow that makes you an expert.
If you don't trust the Bills brass, just say so and stop citing details that you really don't understand anyway. Taller does not mean better (ask Welker, or Steve Smith). Faster does not necessarily mean better (ask Jerry Rice). You've not met the kid. You've not watched him in practice, so stop acting like you know what you're talking about.
Bill's fans have every right to be upset with this pick or any other pick for that matter. If we've learned one thing over the past decade, it is that wisdom of OBD is no greater than the collective wisdom of TBD. (note that I said COLLECTIVE wisdom). I really don't understand the "in Nix I trust" stuff that seems so popular around here. What has he done to make you blindly trust his player judgment? His first draft in 2010 was an unmitigated disaster and has not yielded a single starter on a 6-10 football team. The jury is still out on 2011. It looks pretty good, but couldn't anyone on this board have picked Darius third? For that matter isn't the same true of the first two picks this year? We seem to be elated when the FO makes a seemingly competent pick.
-
How about our no. 1 for NE's 2 no. 1s (27 and 31)? I would do that, then package some of our later picks to get an additional second rounder--4 picks in the top 60.
-
But if you think that speech on that tape is in any way unique to GW, youre deluding yourselves.
What is your evidence??? Or are you just being cynical?
-
I love this sort of analysis. Nice job. In my mind, one other factor that should be considered is the other players still on the board, especially at the same position, when the pick was made. For example, the Hardy pick is even tougher to swallow when you consider that DeSean Jackson went a couple picks later to the Eagles and Royal to the Broncos after that. And of course, taking Lil' Dante with Ngata still on the board, and Maybin with Orakpo, Matthews and Cushing available. Depressing. I don't recall who else was available when McKelvin was selected.
I just checked. Ryan Clady, maybe the best left tackle in football, was picked by the Broncos immediately after the Bills' undersized nickelback.
-
Here are my criteria for grading:
A 4.0 elite player
B+ 3.25 above average NFL player
B 3.0 avg starter
C+ 2.25 part time starter rotational player
C 2.0 depth player
D+ 1.25 borderline NFL player
F 0.0 out of the league, bust
Here is the 2008 draft with my grades (feel free to share your own thoughts)
Round Overall 2008 NFL draft Player Position Grade Number grade
1 11 Leodis McKelvin B 3.0
2 41 James Hardy F 0
3 72 Chris Ellis F 0
4 114 Reggie Corner C 2.0
4 132 Derek Fine F 0
5 147 Alvin Bowen F 0
6 179 Xavier Omon F 0
7 219 Demetrius Bell B 3.0
7 224 Steve Johnson B+ 3.25
7 251 Kennard Cox F 0
Overall GPA : 1.125 Grade D+
Conclusion: Steve Johnson kept this draft from being horrible. Even so, it was very bad.
I love this sort of analysis. Nice job. In my mind, one other factor that should be considered is the other players still on the board, especially at the same position, when the pick was made. For example, the Hardy pick is even tougher to swallow when you consider that DeSean Jackson went a couple picks later to the Eagles and Royal to the Broncos after that. And of course, taking Lil' Dante with Ngata still on the board, and Maybin with Orakpo, Matthews and Cushing available. Depressing. I don't recall who else was available when McKelvin was selected.
-
What an absolute disgrace. This guy should never be allowed near a football field again. And the Buffalo Bills organization should be embarassed that it ever hired him in any capacity, much less as its head coach. From what we can tell, his act really has never changed. The shocking thing to me is that many of the players appear to have bought into this guy.
-
I live in Portland. He is a horrible NFL QB prospect. His mechanics are awful. Dennis Dixon was a much better passer than Thomas. Everyone in Oregon is shocked he is leaving for the NFL. He played very well in the Rose Bowl and if he led the Ducks to another Rose Bowl win or another BCS championship game he could live off endorsement money in Oregon for the rest of his life. Now he will be lucky to be drafted. I would love to know who is advising him to leave for the NFL.
My theory is that Thomas has been told that if he stays he will have to compete against Brian Bennett, who probably has more up-side, for the starting job next year.
I believe top programs routinely push draft-eligible players out the door to open up room for younger recruits at positions where they are loaded. I would not be surprised if that happened with LaMichael James, as well, although James is obviously a better pro prospect than Derron Thomas.
-
I think it shows how incompetent our coaches are and have been for the past several years and further exemplifies why George Edwards should be gone.
Bills couldn't figure out how to use him and Rex Ryan and the Jets did and it really pisses me off.
The Maybin fiasco is emblematic of an incompetent, disfunctional organization, from top to bottom. Obviously, he never should have been drafted where he was, especially with so many high impact players at the same position taken after him. And after he was chosen he was not utilized properly by a coaching staff that never really gave him a chance on the playing field. One can argue about why he failed to make an impact with the Bills, but it's not arguable that he has been almost immediately successful with a different team, at a position of great need for the Bills. Incompetence, top to bottom.
-
I've always suspected it had to do with players playing out of position and with poor technique. No idea if that's empirically correct, though.
I think it is the result of being physically outmatched on both sides of the line of scrimmage, week after week. They are a finess team that just gets the crap beaten out of them.
-
Kornheiser and Dennis Miller were insufferable. Gruden just thinks every other player is "one of the best in his position in the whole league." I'll take that over those other two clowns.
I never said gruden was the worst MNF announcer ever. And isn't it possible that all three of them are/were insufferable?
-
The ultimate issue, Shaun King said, is Gruden’s inability to tell the truth to the grown men who populate an NFL locker room. Specifically, King said Gruden is “inherently dishonest.”
“From a relationship level I think Jon failed,” King said, echoing things that folks in Tampa publicly have said about Gruden for years. Specifically, Gruden had a reputation within the walls of the building of saying one thing and doing another.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/02/shaun-king-calls-jon-gruden-inherently-dishonest/
"I'm not sure it still exits, but Jon has a major character flaw in that, if he's not the center of attention, that's a problem. It is what it is. Ala the Chucky face. You look at the NFL Films, it's just ironic, anytime that he's mic'd up or filmed, the Chucky Face, you know, it's showcased a lot more than normal."
I just want the phish or some other idiotic team to hire gruden so I won't have to listen to him on MNF. He is absolutely insufferable.
-
It might be a shootout. But again, I predicted this as a loss before the season started, and I still see it as one. So I don't lose either way.
What definitely won't get it done v. NE is kicking a FG on 4th and 6 inches from their 10 yard line.
-
Just judging from the stuff I've read over there this week, the Chiefs must have the dumbest, most back assward fans in the league.
[/quote
Wait till you get a load of RaiderFan.
Did the Bills really reach for T.J. Graham?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Apparently, he's good enough right now that Buddy just traded for the guy who was playing third string behind him. I don't recall anyone calling Wilson the greatest 3d round pick since Montana. Instead, they are saying that the early evidence suggests that the Bills should have taken him instead of Graham. Seems like a legitimate point.