mannc
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Posts posted by mannc
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I just don't agree. In that garbage draft they had a chance to come away with the best player. They took the wrong guy. The cost to get the best player was a 2nd round pick in a terrible draft. That pick was probably the equivalent to a 3rd-4th in most drafts. There were like 19 players with a 1st round grade. Everyone got pushed up. There was 1 impact player at and impact position. They took the wrong guy. If they took Ansah everyone would race about how little they paid to make that move. Ansah and a 2nd in that draft is way, way better than the 12th pick and 2 seconds.
Exactly my point. The Dolphins didn't pick Ansah because they were unable to tell who the best available player was; it's possible that the Lions would have preferred Jordan to Ansah too, but they didn't panic. There was nothing to distinguish the first 12 players in that draft and therefore little reason to give up anything of value to move up, unless you were arrogant enough to believe you alone could pinpoint the "best player". Of the first six picks, four have been major disappointments and in fact, the best player in the draft was picked 13th by the Jets. There is every possibility that Jordan would have been available at 12 anyway. It was an arrogant move and it blew up in their faces.
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Except that the "draft value chart" is not worth the paper it's written on. In some years moving up into the top 3 is cheaper because there is not much separation between the prospects, while in other years there is a big drop off. The Dolphins would have been better off keeping their 12th pick and their second rounder, regardless what "the chart" said. They had two chances to land impact players and instead they put all their marbles on a guy who obviously was far from a sure thing--exactly why trading up is generally a mistake. I would call it arrogance, or maybe just stupidity.This missed my point though (at least I didn't see it). You make the value play. The cost is what determines if it was the right decision.The Dolphins went from 12 to 3 and it cost them 1 of their 2 second round picks. The Redskins went from 6 to 2 and it cost them 2 additional first round picks and a second.
If the Dolphins took Ziggy Ansah instead of Dion Jordan it would have been a fantastic move. The player they chose made it a bad move. The decision to move up based on the value was a good one.
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Take a good look at the current QB landscape. The NFL may want that kind of a wide open game, but they don't have the horses they used to have. There are only a few true franchise QBs left who can beat you consistently with their arms in the league and there's only one a couple of them under 35. The NFL running game is going to make a comeback.
There is absolutely zero evidence for this statement. Passing yards are going up, not down. By my count, there were six sure-fire HOF QBs working in the league last year, at least eight more bona fide veteran franchise QBs, and four or five young rising stars. Show me an era that can top that.
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After coming out strongly against the trade, I am coming around to this view. Look how helpless the offense was last year when Sammy was sidelined (or simply ignored). Like other stud WRs, he opens up the whole field and makes his teammates better. It's why high-end WRs are the second most valuable players in the game today.Yes, it was a good trade.
I thought Watkins was the best player in that draft class.........and my guess is that OBJ will fade and Sammy will be the better player over the long haul.
It's interesting to note that Watkins didn't overwhelm in the 40 pre-draft but was arguably the fastest receiver in pads in the NFL last year.
His skill level is under-appreciated nationally because he plays on a bad team that has been one of the worst passing teams in the league in his first couple seasons.
Their mistake at the WR position has been passing over talented players at the position while reaching for need with the picks they've had since.
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You mean, like Andrew Luck? And I would be shocked if Hogan goes before late third or fourth round, and possibly as low as 5 or 6.Both are labeled "smart QB's" that played in a pro style offense, have ideal nfl size,
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One important difference is that Hogan was a four year starter who has done nothing but win. Edwards lost far more games than he won. Hogan is also highly mobile and highly durable--both important qualities lacking in TE. But feel free to keep comparing them because they went to the same school almost a decade apart.Haven't we already done this before? The most nfl ready QB from 2007 apparently was Trent Edwards from... Stanford
I don't want anymore smart mediocre QB's. We should try something different and go for the dumbest QB in the draft
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Best: Joey Bosa
Bust: Derrick Henry
Sleeper: Cardale Jones and Kevin Hogan
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On the other hand, maybe the lesson is not to waste a top 5 pick on an offensive lineman. Five of the "bottom 11" are O-lineman. Maybe it's just a difficult position to project.NFL.com has an interesting article ranking the top 5 picks of the draft since 2012. To demonstrate how difficult this is, there's only a 50% hit rate...on TOP 5 picks.. amazing. Clearly not very good. And we all know that if any of these players were passed over in the top 5, they would have been picked in the #6-10 slots and the team grabbing them there would have been graded an "A++" having scored the "steal of the draft" at the time...
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Ah the old "you can't even touch the QBs" stuff comes out.
How can anyone watch football nowadays and not see QBs regularly getting lit up every week? Look at the AFCC game--Manning got pummeled and Brady got hit 17 times. I would bet starting QBs miss more time due to injury now than they did in Kelly/Elways time. Big Ben is a load and he has missed a bunch of games. Bledsoe's career, for all intents and purposes, ended on a huge hit. EJ was hurt 3 times in his rookie season alone--he's a big dude. Romo has broken the same bone twice.
My guess is that if Kelly had to throw over 600 times a season, he would missed games in today's NFL. Players are bigger and faster than 30 years ago.
Exactly. If "you can't even touch the QB these days", then show me the statistics demonstrating that QB injuries are down significantly over 10 or 20 years ago. I would love to see some of the "tough guys" who bemoan the "pussification" of the league strap on the pads and see just how soft the game has gotten. What has been prohibited is the cheap shots that are dangerous and add nothing to the game. That the refs sometimes get carried away and flag clean hits does not change that fact.
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I want no part of Ragland in the first.Reggie Ragland will be a bust IMO
Crush is Noah Spence
CBF
Sleeper pick is Bralon Addison of Oregon, who ran a pretty slow 40 and will probably be available in round 6 as a result. He can play, and as a bonus, he is an excellent PR.
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So where do you see him going? Rd 3? Could he sneak into the second or are teams too scared off by what they saw this season at OSU?nothing mysterious about it. He struggled in the up tempo RPO offense that is fit for a quick decision-making, running QB. They had a new OC this year and didn't run it as much in 2014, and didn't run it at all in the playoffs. He was not recruited by Meyer and not a fit for the offense he wanted to run. It's a good thing as it relates to the NFL. If he lit it up in that offense this year it would not tell us anything more about his potential in the NFL. It doesn't mean he wasn't the best QB on the team. He did win the starting job in camp. And he didn't struggle in every game. He had some good games. They refused to call the deep pass - which was egregious. There was a lot wrong with how the offense was called most of the year. It didn't gel until the last two games when they moved the OC to the booth.
The scouts all know this and urban will readily admit it. He will say anything now to get his guys drafted as high as possible; it helps recruiting. He will insist that it is fault that Cardale's growth wasn't apparent on the field.
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Some good points here. And don't forget, college programs don't have years to develop QBs--even the best ones are only around for a couple years, so you need a plug-n-play system. The top NCAA programs can't afford a "down year" while they suffer the growing pains of a "rookie" QB.There are other factors as well. Colleges also run these offenses because there is a lack of NFL caliber talent on opposing defenses . That's why those offenses don't work in the NFL , high talent level and fairly even distribution of talent among the 32 teams. That's not true in college so it's easy to win games with a " gimmick" offense that most defenses will not have the elite speed / quickness to deal with. You don't need to run a pro style offense, so why do it? Even if there were more pro caliber QBs , I still think you would see these offenses remain popular at the college level. And most colleges cannot identify pro caliber QBs that soon anyway. NFL scouts have a hard enough time. The overall game is different, and the uneven talent distribution among teams makes the college style offense popular because they are effective at that level regardless of whether you have an eventual pro at QB.
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Wanna bet? Where else are they going to come from? High school? CFL? The US Marines? There is no evidence whatsoever that the league is "dying" due to poor QB play. It's an opinion held, if at all, only in places like Cleveland, Buffalo and Miami.That is exactly the point to this thread - the NFL can no longer rely on college playing time as the only feeder of talent into the QB pool.
In fact, I would argue that QB play is now at its all time best, with at least five future hall of famers (without even including P Manning), young stars on the rise like Luck, Newton and Wilson, and promising first and second year players like Mariota, Winston and Bortles--not to mention solid vets like Rivers, Palmer and Ryan. And I think the incoming crop in this year's draft looks pretty good--maybe no obvious superstars but deep in interesting mid-round prospects like C Jones, Hogan and Hackenberg.
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you are arguing with some one who is doing nothing other than hating on someone, with no stated basis for his opinion. That which is stated without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.It isn't about what he is today as a obviously raw prospect with great potential.
Cardale Jones is a huge guy, who's mobile, has a cannon arm, nice touch on the ball, and performed at his very best on the biggest stage there is. He might not be a first rounder, but I can't think of a better guy for the Bills to take a shot on as a developmental prospect. The fact that he mysteriously struggled at times this year--like the entire Buckeye team--should be viewed as fortunate for teams that will now have a shot at him in the middle rounds.
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I absolutely expect the team to take a shot at a QB this year, and frankly I'll be annoyed if they don't.
I would prefer to see them go after a guy like Doughty (or maybe Brandon Allen), who I think has a shot to be the type that will get drafted in round 5, sit for two years, and potentially compete for a starting job.
Well, let's face it: Nothing about Whaley's record suggests that he knows how to scout, evaluate or prioritize QBs, or offensive linemen, for that matter. That's my biggest criticism of him.
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To be honest, I don't have much of an opinion on Prescott (would much rather roll the dice with Cardale, FWIW), but I deninitely want to see this team take a shot at a QB in this draft, even if it means over drafting someone by a round or two. People act like high picks at other positions are guaranteed starters and it's just not true. It's all a game of chance, but it's possible to tilt the odds in your favor.Not the same thing
EJ at least showed an NFL QB's skill set in college. Prescott has looked more like a fullback playing out of position IMO.
Also, timing had a lot to do with the EJ pick. The team didn't have anything resembling a potential franchise QB, so they took a shot.
To do the same thing with an early pick this year is fine, but it should be used on a guy that shows an NFL skill set; to me, that's not Prescott.
As to Kouandjio, you're right--we can't KNOW for sure. I mean, I have a few friends that scout for NFL teams, but that doesn't mean that their grades are the final word on the guy.
The point is more directed at the player in question, which is Prescott. I think he's a day 3 guy at best (I had Kouandjio as a guy that had value in round 3 or later FWIW), and I would be extremely disappointed in my GM if he were picked earlier than that.
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What about taking a QB as flawed as EJ in round 1?I would fire a GM for taking a shot on a QB that is as flawed as Prescott with a 2nd round pick, provided that it ended as poorly as I think it will.
And yeah, I hated the Kouandjio pick. Never liked him as a player, but he was on a lot of boards in the top-50, so that's far less egregious to me.
Btw, I don't care that other teams supposedly had CK high on their boards too. It's the gm's job to get it right. And of course no one can really prove where other teams had him slotted. As I recall, plenty of teams had him on their DND list due to medical issues.
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Really? You would fire a GM for taking a shot at a QB in round 2? How long would you wait to see if Prescott is actually any good? What about a GM who wastes a round 2 pick on a right tackle with a bad medical history who can't even sniff the field after 2 years, despite crying need at the position? Is that a firing offense? If my GM is going to roll the dice, I want him to do it with a QB.If an NFL team takes Dak Prescott in round 2, then they deserve what they get.
He doesn't look like anything above a middle-of-day-3 pick to me, and I would have my trigger finger ready to fire my GM if he spent a day 2 pick on him and it didn't work out in my favor quickly.
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Great WRs make a big difference even when they don't have great QBs throwing them the ball--Josh Gordon, D'Andre Hopkins, Sammy, AJ Green and Steve Smith come to mind. And they make everyone around them better by forcing the defense to defend the whole field.I put a DT like Dareus who can be a double digit sack guy in the pass rusher category.
A typical 4-3 DT........good versus the run and the pass but not a great finisher as a pass rusher.......I value less.
I do put impact CB below an impact WR.......because the top priority of any organization should be maximizing QB play........but if you don't have a good QB you can't use a good WR........a good pass rusher always gets to rush the passer and the second priority of any organization should be to disrupt the opposing QB.
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Great post and a great list. I might put interior d-linemen ahead of CB, because really good ones can seriously disrupt an offense, in the running and the passing game. Jurrell Casey of the Titans comes to mind, and MD at his best. IMO, good corners are easier to find and don't impact a game in the same way. I also might rank playmaking receivers even with or higher than pass-rushers, because they open things up for the entire offense. Look how hopeless the Bills' offense was this year when Watkins was out.
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Great post and a great list. I might put interior d-linemen ahead of CB, because really good ones can seriously disrupt an offense, in the running and the passing game. Jurrell Casey of the Titans comes to mind, and MD at his best. IMO, good corners are easier to find and don't impact a game in the same way. I also might rank playmaking receives even with pass-rushers, because they open things up for the entire offense.
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Wait, you aren't suggesting that you have the first clue about "legalities" are you?...do you measure their 40 yard dash time? or how much they weigh, too?
it's an entirely different situation and set of legalities.
How is it stupid to divulge? He was calling out a team for asking a clearly ignorant and probably illegal question in an interview. You aren't saying that Apple was bound by any sort of confidentiality, are you?Stupid, stupid thing for someone to ask, but equally stupid for Eli to divulge the team. Poor judgment on his part.
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You're wasting your time. It's hard to argue with someone who just makes pronouncements with nothing to back it up.Drafting defense in the 1st is fine. I thought we were talking about taking a developmental guy?
The Bills haven't drafted a QB in 3 years.
You're a hard person to talk to. Just building straw men and getting easily offended.
The ability to always find an excuse not to draft a QB is a huge reason we have been on the outside looking in for 16 years.
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Ceilings are kinda silly. A lot of guys have high ceilings but it's rare that they come close to reaching them.
Also, Mayock had Blaine Gabbert ranked high than Cam Newton. It must have been about ceiling. Never forget.
That Florida game was awful but it was by far the worst game of the year. Is the Big 10 really that much superior than the ACC? CH had 156 or less yards passing in 7 games this year.
Still, like EJ, he has intrigue because of the physical skills. Honestly, unlike EJ, his best shot to succeed is to fall in the draft. He won't be rushed on the field and been given up after a few games.
As strange as it sounds, falling in the draft might be the best thing for Qbs in the long run.
I take back what I said. I thought you were referring to Kevin Hogan, not Hackenburg. (Don't ask why I thought CH referred to Hogan; I was probably thinking of Chris.) Your reference to the Big 10 made me realize my mistake. I stand by what I said about EJ, though. And the ACC was worse a few years ago when he was there than it is now..
Please draft Reggie Ragland…
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Exactly. No one is saying the Bills don't need LBs; the issue is whether you need to spend a first (or even a second) round pick on an ILB when there are perfectly good ones to be found in later rounds and in Free Agency for not much $$.