mannc
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Posts posted by mannc
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Don't forget, teams typically have more DBs on the roster than WRs, so it's hardly surprising or a sign of the apocalypse that the Bills have drafted a lot more DBs. DBs also tend to be a team's key special teams performers, so there's that. The quality of the WR picks is certainly open to question though.So many DBs?? Wtf
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Go back and look at the team's statements when it was announced that Watkins had had surgery-- the same day it was announced that the defensive end they selected with their first round pick, instead of a WR, also needed surgery: Sammy will be ready for training camp and will be 100% for the start of the season. People get tired of hearing that all is well and then finding out it's actually a worst case scenario, especially when the purported good news is calculated to take the heat off OBD.One takeaway of mine: far too many people on this board are willing to buy the company line when the team says that a player only has a flesh wound and that pain management is the issue. That was never the case with Watkins. Sadly, the added effect of the team's patent BS is that it has aroused legions of pitchfork-wielding, mouth-breather fans to proclaim that Watkins is soft and a bust. Anyone who looks around at guys with this type of injury -- Kevin Durant, Julio Jones -- realizes a player will be 100 percent in time. The operative phrase, though, is "in time" -- time that the Bills didn't want to give to Watkins.
PS -- some of us owe an apology to Manish Mehta, who was absolutely right all along: https://mobile.twitter.com/MMehtaNYDN/status/775331784213094402
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No, I think there was a groin and something else, as well, maybe a shoulder.It was ribs, calf and foot now, right... did I get them all?
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I would say you're the one who's speculating. It would be hard to even list all the injuries Watkins has had in his 2.5 years in Buffalo.This response above is nothing but a fans speculation and hyperbole. This kid is young and somewhere will rip this league up for quite awhile. Same kind of speculation but more realistic of Watkins future than "will be plagued by injury his whole career." which is based on nothing.
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Did you read my post?You make no sense! Watkins A) is injured. How do you predict that!!! B) is always open and doesn't get many targets.
Where am I copping out? Who is your team? I'll find 3 examples of draft misses from last year alone.
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Maybe, but Sammy is looking a lot like a guy who is super-talented, but will be plagued by injuries his whole career. The guys you mention are all a lot bigger and have had one major injury from which they quickly bounced back, while Sammy has seemingly had one injury after another. Hard to have much faith in his ability to stay healthy the rest of his career.I would want that new GM fired immediately, Watkins will heal and be an elite WR for close to a decade.
Julio, Aj Green, Dez have all been though injuries and no one cares because they are back out there killing it.
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This is a cop-out. The NFL is a bottom-line business. It makes no difference how highly rated Watkins was before the draft--he has been a poor return on investment, especially in the context of the 2014 draft, and that is what Whaley should be judged on, even if the poor return is due largely to injuries. Injuries are a risk for all players and that's one more reason it's a bad idea to use three premium picks on one player who's not a QB--too much investment tied to the health and productivity of one guy.Watkins was clearly the class of that draft. Go back and look at the draft coverage. Julio Jones comparisons, etc. Nobody had grades like he did that year. You can argue who is better now but I loved that we were getting a premier WR and injuries happen man. Nobody knew OBJ and Landry would be studs. Maybe Evans but he didn't have Sammy's speed or pedigree.
If ever there was a year to not panic and just let the draft come to you, it was 2014. But Whaley just couldn't do it. There was still a huge amount of talent left on the board, and not just at WR. For example,lots of speculation that the Bills loved Aaron Donald and that he would be their pick if they stayed put.
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There were actually 8 picks in the first five rounds devoted to the position if you include the extra first and fourth used to obtain WatkinsYear Rd Player Pick Pos
2014 1 Sammy Watkins 4 WR 2013 2 Robert Woods 41 WR 2013 3 Marquise Goodwin 78 WR 2012 3 T.J. Graham 69
WR
2010 4 Marcus Easley 107
WR
2008 2 James Hardy 41 WR
First off there are only 6 of them, and secondly it's bust central. We deserve this.
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That's what a number 1 receiver looks like. And he coulda been a Bill...
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No.isn't this a contradiction?
Well, Carp's not particularly sharp to begin with.Might kick start our short yardage problems by converting some 2 pt conv's. Conversely it would make Carp less sharp by getting less kicks in.
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Math 201: Extra points/two point conversions are not independent events. Prior events and expected future events impact the risk/reward balance.
I'm not sure what your point is. I never suggested the Bills should go for two every time. For example, if a one-point conversion would break a tie or create a two possession lead late in a game, then you kick. But going for two should be the default option. Do you have any evidence that would refute that idea?
This team has been epically bad in short yardage for what seems like forever. That and they just suck in the red zone.
Several people have made that point, but I have not seen any evidence that it is true. With Tyrod at QB and a better than average run game, it certainly shouldn't be true. And I don't know how relevant "Red Zone" performance is to the team's ability to convert from the two-yard line.
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At the beginning of last season, one-point conversion kicks essentially became 33-yard FG attempts. Presumably, one of the reasons for this change was to encourage more teams to go for two, but most teams have not been paying attention and the number of two-point attempts has not gone up nearly as much as the rule change would support.
This is especially true of the Bills. Since the new rule went into effect, Carpenter is 42 for 49 on the longer one-point conversions, for an 85.7 percent success rate. (In 2015, the success rate for the league as a whole was 94%.) Meanwhile, the league-wide success rate for two point conversions since the beginning of the 2015 season is 51.4 percent (55 out of 107). (The Bills don't have enough two-point attempts for it to be statistically meaningful.) It is my supposition that with the best running QB in the league and above average running game, the Bills should be able to easily exceed the league average at two-point conversions, especially if they worked hard to install effective two-point conversion packages. But even if they were only average, the result would be a few more points over the course of the season, and possibly another win or two. Do I expect the Bills to start going for two-point conversions? Of course not, just like I don't expect Rex to go for touchdowns on fourth and goal from the one, but I think they should.
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My point being that your blind reliance on "analytics" ignores the situational specifics that you just described.
No, I've never advocated "blind reliance on analytics". You suggested that Rex should have ignored the math because the Bills are a lousy short yardage team, which I disputed.
I recognize that every situation is different, but the math in favor of trying to score the TD here was overwhelming and the situational specifics favored it even more. According to most analytics logarithms, you should go for it on fourth and one, no matter where you are on the field, but most especially on the goal line, since failing to convert there leaves your opponent backed up into its own end zone.
And while we're at it, we should have a debate about whether the Bills should ever kick an extra point, given Carpenter's struggles and the team's ability to come up with difficult to defend two-point conversion packages due to Tyrod's running ability.
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Let's put it this way, even if momentum exists, the loss of said momentum by boldly going for 7 points there and failing, would be negligible when you consider the fact that the Cards would be backed up on their own goal line in a loud, hostile stadium, not to mention the 7 points (and, presumably, positive momentum) that you stand to gain by punching it in, like a real football team.Thanks for posting this interesting article.
I can't say how long it would have lasted because they didn't get it. But it also comes and goes and swings back and forth in games.
As far as this article showing that the myth is "thoroughly de-bunked", not so fast. From your article:
What did the statistics and analysis say about the he 2016 Bills vs the 2016 Arizona Cardinals in the 1st quarter?
This article is based on stats from 2 - 17 years ago.
Football is not played in a vacuum. It's played by people on the field and the emotions and state of mind of the players ON THE FIELD in the moment. Making decisions in real football games would be akin to figuring out which number to play in roulette by watching that board showing the past 10 numbers landed on IMHO. It's apples to oranges. Different teams, different situations, heck, the way the NFL is, different rules.
Just curious, do you think momentum and emotions n played ZERO part in the world's biggest comenback by Frank Reich and the Bills? Or it all be explained by statistics and analysis?
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The Bills are in fact a good rushing team and have the best running QB in the NFL--they should be very difficult to stop in that situation, certainly more difficult to stop than the average NFL team.The analytics judge the bulk limit, which tells you absolutely nothing about an individual situation, or an individual team, for that matter. What are the analytics for going for it on 4th and goal from the 1 for a team that ranks in the bottom third of the league rushing, and relies on a QB dive with their backup QB to convert previous 4th and 1 situations?
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Of course, I didn't mean to suggest Prescott isn't good; he is. I'm guessing the Bills would have taken him if the Cowboys hadn't.Yup. Makes a huge difference when you have a great line, and running game, and stud WR and reliable TE and your defense is dominating, huh?
He's hitting his throws and making good decisions though.
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I'll find the link. A couple questions though: If AZ seized the momentum by generating a 4th and 1 stop (probability, around 35-40%), how long would that momentum last? Until they have to punt from their own end zone? The rest of the quarter? The remaining 50 minutes of the game? And if the Bills scored a TD on 4th and goal (60-65%) chance, wouldn't that generate a lot more "momentum" than a sorry-ass 18-yard FG?? I call BS on your momentum argument.How exactly has "the momentum myth" been thoroughly debunked?
i've been watching football a long time and have seen momentum shift in games many many many times.
A couple of examples for our own Bills. In 2013, Bills vs Bengals. Bills get 4th and 1 down on the Bengals 1 just before the 1/2. Thaddeus Lewis at QB. Bills go for it and get stuffed. Fired up Bengals drive 99 yards for the TD. We end up losing.
In a playoff game vs the Titans, Bills QB fumbles football out of back of EZ for a safety. Titans fans and players are super fired up and take the kick and score a TD. Thier ONLY TD of the game.
Analytics and stats work much better in baseball because it's one on one, batter vs pitcher. In football there it's 11 on 11 and the players change frequently.
So, I disagree with your assertion that momentum is a myth. Can you point to any evidence supporting your theory?
My opinion is that momentum is viewed as unimportant is made by people with thier head up thier stat sheet.
Emotions and momentum are super important in football IMHO.
Here you go: http://grantland.com/features/bill-barnwell-theory-momentum-football/
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He's also playing behind the best O-line in the NFL, by a lot.Very likely not. Prescott had a lot more experience.
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And the "momentum myth" has also been thoroughly de-bunked by statistical analysis. At any rate, I'm not sure how backing the other team up to their one-yard line would shift the momentum to the Cardinals anyway.No. See my comment about shifting momentum. The emotional part and momentum are huge in football. They don't call it the Big Mo for nothing.
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This is why analytics was invented, and the math isn't even close. Going for it is the right call, regardless of what most coaches and fans would have done. In fact, the math says in that situation you go for the TD on 4th down anywhere inside the other team's 5-yard line.Just the varied responses and the basically 50-50 vote of posters wanting to kick and wanting to go for it shows that it was not a no brainer decision. Especially because fans are more willing to want to go for it than coaches, in general.
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But the fact that the defense was playing well was offered as a reason to kick; doesn't it (at least) equally support going for the touchdown?nope. don't trust anything yet
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If the defense is playing so well, wouldn't it be great to pin AZ back on its own one-yard line, even if you don't score the TD? Wouldn't you trust the D to force a punt, then get the ball back in AZ territory?Take the points. our defense was playing well, it's the first quarter, our offense appears to be working pretty well since we were able to get down there.
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I thought we were a ground and pound, run-oriented offense? Should have been a no-brainer.There were a lot of reasons. At that point we hadn't run well all season. The defense was playing well so three points means more in a game like this. The mental let down if they don't score could have led to a bigger let down. Again, I would have went for it. But I think it was a 55-45 decision.
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Then half of them would be wrong. What do you think made this one a tough call?I think half the coaches or more would have kicked the FG in that situation.
Around the league Week 4
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by mannc
Unwatchable. Bortles looks very mediocre, as does Luck.