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Everything posted by folz
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Playoffs are Here! Be Courteous to and Cautious of DEBBIE Downers
folz replied to theRalph's topic in The Stadium Wall
There is a difference between "expectations" and "aspirations." We aspire to win a Super Bowl. It is our goal. We work together to put everything towards that goal. But, we also understand that there are a lot of variables and unforeseen circumstances that may keep us from that ultimate goal. If it doesn't happen, we reassess, reload, and try again with our full effort. We don't see it as failure, but growth...and we learn to appreciate all of the good and fun moments along the way. The big plays, the big games, the individual and team records being set, the overcoming adversity, the personal stories, the love of competition, the camaraderie, etc. We expect to win a Super Bowl. So, if we don't, then everything has been a failure. The players aren't good enough, the coaches aren't good enough. There is nothing to look back fondly on because it all came to nothing, it didn't go as we wanted or expected it to go, so the rest of it is meaningless. [That may be a bit of an over exaggeration, but that is the mentality that expectations create. If expectations are not met, then there is nothing but failure and disappointment. btw, the Universe very rarely brings us what we expect, so sometimes it's best to not expect anything and just enjoy the ride.] Plus, most of the negative posters "expected" an 8-10 win rebuild season, no AFC East title, possibly no playoffs for some. The team goes 13-4, gets its 5th AFC East title in a row, and snags the #2 seed in the playoffs. So, their expectations for this year have already been surpassed actually. But does anyone get any credit for that other than Josh? No, now expectations have been revamped to if they don't win the Super Bowl... -
Well, they generally don't discuss fumbles with QBs, you usually only hear about the interceptions. No one talked about Lamar's fumbles last year when they were dinging Josh for his INTs. Plus Drew wasn't a running QB, so didn't think it was that significant. But to satisfy your post: Brees averaged 2.1 fumbles lost per season in his career. Over the 12-year stretch of unbelievable numbers (his prime), he averaged 2.4 fumbles lost per season. So, that makes an average of 14.9 turnovers per season across his career. And 17.4 turnovers per season during his prime (which, yes, is closer to the "18 turnover average" that you noted). But, just for comparison to some of the recent great QBs, here are their average turnovers (INTs + FMBs) per game-started: Rodgers 0.65 TOs/game started Brady 0.78 " " Mahomes 0.78 " " Jackson 0.79 " " Burrow 0.88 " " Brees 1.00 " " Allen 1.00 " " Manning 1.01 " " Favre 1.68 (added Brett for comparison since he's considered the most INT-prone QB) And again, that is not weighing in number of passing attempts per game. Obviously Lamar's total is low due to the fact that he throws the ball a lot less than all of the other guys on the list. And it makes Rodgers' TO numbers even more impressive since he is more of a gunslinger-type QB like Manning, Brees, Allen, and Favre. And let's face it, Rodgers, Brady, and Mahomes have been the best ever at limiting TOs while still having unbelievable stats. Is it that Brees was so bad with turnovers (in comparison to his stats)? Or is it just because you're comparing him to a few unicorns. And we'll see if Mahomes can even maintain that pace. His interceptions have gone up significantly the last 4 years, while his overall stats have been down for the last two years. Over the last 4 years Mahomes has averaged 14.25 turnovers/season. Not that different from Brees' 14.9 per season career average. Peyton Manning averaged 15.76 turnovers per season. Josh is currently averaging 15.70 turnovers per season.
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First of all, Brees averaged 12.8 interceptions per season (in seasons when he was the starter). In the prime of his career (a 13-year stretch of big numbers), he averaged 15 INTs per season. I also think you forgot to weigh in the fact that Drew Brees had more attempts per game than any other QB in history. More attempts = more interceptions. For example, Lamar throws 10 passes fewer per game than Brees did (that would be 170 fewer attempts per season---with 17-game seasons). Brees is actually 12th all-time in TD/INT ratio. Ahead of guys like Peyton, Hurts, Allen, Ryan, Luck, Stafford, Young, Montana, Marino, etc. Yes, he threw a lot of INTs, but on a lot of attempts and along with a TON of yards and TDs. We are talking about Lamar getting 4,172 passing yards (with 915 rush for 5,087 yards total). Brees had 12 seasons with 4,300+ passing yards, 8 season with 4,600+ passing yards. He had 5 seasons with 5,000+ passing yards and was only 178 yards away from having seven 5,000 yard passing season (only Mahome and Brady were able to do that more than once---two times each, compared to Drew's 5). Not taking anything away from Lamar, but Brees had 4 seasons with more total yards than Lamar has this year (and was only 19 yards away from having a 5th season with more yards than Lamar's 2024). Over a 9-year span, Brees averaged 37 TDs per season. Yes, he only went over 40 TDs twice, but 37 a year is nothing to sniff at. That is all way too much high-level consistency to have his career be summed up as padding stats/turnover machine. How do you pad stats across 12 NFL seasons? I don't know if he ever deserved the MVP over the other guys, but let's not just dismiss how great he was.
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Could it just be that they want to make sure that Trubisky is healthy for the playoff run too? Give Josh one series to keep his consecutive streak alive. Play Mitch for a couple of series (or to halftime) for a little warm-up. Then get him out (avoid injury) and play Mike white the rest of the way. Plus, McD did say they want to see what they have in some of their younger/PS players. Maybe they want to see more of Mike running their offense, just to know what he's capable of here (though they did already give him an extension, so they must like something that he's bringing to the table).
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So, the most likely path for Buffalo at this point would seem to be: Wild Card: Denver @ Buffalo Divisonal Round: Baltimore @ Buffalo AFC Championship: Buffalo @ KC Super Bowl: Buffalo vs. Detroit/Philly/Minn [Denver has the best shot currently of taking the #7 seed; Baltimore most likely wins the North for the #3 seed; I don't see the Chargers beating the Ravens in the Wild Card or Pitt/Houston beating KC in the divisional round---but then it's the playoffs, anything could happen.]
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I've argued for Josh's MVP case on and off over the past year. But, yeah, I think I've finally given up caring about MVP totally at this point. When careers are over and done with, how often is it talked about that a player was the MVP of the league? A little bit more now, but honestly, I barely knew the award even existed until like maybe 7-10 years ago (thanks social media---sarcasm). And I've been watching football for almost 50 years. It's just one more thing for the talking heads to fill air time with and for people on social media to fight about. But, we don't remember (or really care) how many MVPs someone has. Do we think of Drew Brees as a lesser player than he was because he never won an MVP? Are Brian Sipe, Ken Anderson, Boomer Esiason, Rich Gannon, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan seen as better than some of their better contemporaries because they won an MVP? No. We don't remember MVPs, we remember big games, big moments, amazing plays, big playoff wins, and yes, Super Bowls. Get your Super Bowl(s) Josh and nothing else matters. Not to mention that it has become a completely pointless award when voters alter the criteria each year to suit their personal biases. If there is no integrity to the standards for winning the award, then why should I care what these 32 people (or whatever) have to say? As Bills fans, we just have to accept that some people will never give Josh his full laurels (for whatever reason), at least until he wins a Super Bowl, or maybe when his career is over. It is what it is and who cares. We know who Josh is, his teammates know who Josh is, his coaches know who Josh is. Almost makes it even more special, more personal. He's OUR guy. The Bills (and the mafia) against the world.
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Thought I would look up, out of curiosity, the combined stats of both players for the three MVP seasons in question [Lamar's 2 MVP seasons (2019, 2023) and this year], just to see how close their stats are. [Not that anyone thought Josh should have won MVP in 2019.] Combined stats for 2019, 2023, and 2024 (total yards, total TDs, turnovers). Lamar Jackson: 13,639 yards 115 TDs 47 TOs Team record: 37-10 Josh Allen: 12,691 yards 122 TDs 56 TOs Team record: 34-15 I still love that the two most doubted QBs in a presumed all-time draft class are now the ones in arguments over who is the MVP. Though I'm also happy that Baker and Sam are having a resurgence of their careers.
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"Be the best you with us." Those aren't empty words from coach. How many guys were after-thoughts on other teams, but are thriving with us and major contributors to the team: Mack Hollins, Ty Johnson, Jordan Phillips, Taylor Rapp, etc. How many guys have big or quirky personalities that are allowed to be themselves: Dion Dawkins, Spencer Brown, Mack Hollins, Keon Coleman, Dawson Knox, Ed Oliver, Von, Jordan Phillips, Josh, etc. Mack is the epitome of why players like being in Buffalo. So glad he's a Bill.
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Random talking head says something about the Bills
folz replied to Simon's topic in The Stadium Wall
You are obviously rewriting history a bit here. We have not had this conversation every year of Sean's tenure. 2017: New coach, lack of talent, breaks the playoff drought with Tyrod Taylor as his QB. Yes, the playoff game against JAX was sad (offensively), but no one (even you, I would wager) was talking about firing him after that season. We knew we weren't going anywhere in the playoffs with Tyrod and that team. 2018: Beane comes on board and cleans house to get the cap straight. We draft Josh. But, it's a rebuild year. An even worse roster than 2017 (outside of Josh). No money, no cap, very little talent. We all accepted that season as a painful, but necessary step towards the future. Sure, people knock him for starting Peterman...but come on, Peterman played 2 quarters of football before Sean changed his mind. And as raw as Josh was, it wasn't a bad organizational decision to ease him in (just didn't work out because Nathan wasn't up to the task). Again, no calls for him being fired. 2019: The team has 10 wins and makes the playoffs. We lose in the wildcard round to Houston. But no one really questioned his coaching in that game. And if they did, they were foolish. Did McDermott throw the crazy lateral fumble? Did he take 7 points off the board when the refs intervened to forgive a Houston mistake? Did he make the blindside block in OT that was flagged, pushing us out of field goal range (could have been the game winner)? Did he miss the easy sandwich sack and let Watson get away to make a play? We were a team on the rise with a very good, but still raw QB. And our young team made some mistakes on the field to let Houston back in it. It was disappointing, but no one was calling for Sean's head. 2020: Diggs comes on board, Josh becomes Josh, and the offense takes off. The team goes 13-3, winning two playoff games en route to the AFC Championship Game. We lose to a much better, more talented, more veteran/seasoned KC team. And, let's not forget, our two best WRs were playing hobbled and the refs let the KC DBs manhandle our WRs, while the Bills defense was not allowed the same courtesy. Yes, the disappointment was high...and the defense may have been held accountable by some. I'm sure there were some who questioned McDermott at this point, but there were no major conversations about firing him (in the national media or amongst Bills fans). 2021: Here is where the issues began. Expectations were so high (Super Bowl or bust) and then 13 seconds happened. 2022: Some still can't forgive Sean for 13 seconds, so they ignore everything that happened to the team that year (as if it wouldn't affect the team/players). There are very few teams ever that could have gone through what that team did and still have a 13-3 record and win a playoff game. But rather than Sean getting praise for holding that team together, he is blamed for everything (why? 13 seconds). 2023: It is understandable that there were questions this year with the way the offense played early in the year (and our record at that time). But, Sean did right the ship, fired Dorsey/promoted Brady, the team wins 6 of its last 7, wins the AFC East, makes the playoffs, wins a playoff game...and then with a heavily depleted defense loses to the eventual Super Bowl winner by 3 points. But again, it's all Sean's fault. Why? 13 seconds. Yes, the conversation has been had for the last 3 years (not the last 7 years as you stated). And it really isn't as bad as some of you guys make things out to be...it's just some of you will never forgive him for the 13 seconds game. That's really all that it comes down to. And there is no guarantee that if he made different coaching decisions in that game that things might not have still turned out the same anyhow. You guys think everything is Josh...but that is so short-sighted. Yes, we have one of the best QBs in the league, but that doesn't guarantee Super Bowl appearances or SB wins every year. Just ask Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees or Peyton Manning or Dan Marino, etc., etc. And some of you guys totally ignore things like culture, motivation, player acquisitions, player development, stability, organizational standards, etc., etc. as if none of that matters...and which Sean has been excellent at (among many other things). Ask the Jets about player development, for one, and how important that is. I mean, how many games have we lost due to bad coaching or massive coaching blunders? Be honest. Very, very few. And how many great, Super Bowl winning coaches could we point out games in their careers (and in the playoffs) where they made calls that were questioned after because they lost the game (every single one I'll bet you). But yeah, it's just because he broke the drought. And obviously us life-long Bills fans who support Sean don't care about ever winning a Super Bowl 🙄. Our support has nothing to do with his 86-44 record, .662 win %, 5 AFC East Titles, playoffs 7 out of 8 years, 5-playoff wins, a perfect playoff game, a great team culture, great interaction between the team and fans, and all of the fun the last 8 years have been. But, I guess none of that matters to some of you guys because of 13 seconds. -
Random talking head says something about the Bills
folz replied to Simon's topic in The Stadium Wall
Don't know why anyone watches Colin Cowherd. He just continually has bad take after bad take, week after week, year after year. Plus he's smug. He's been down on Sean for a long time and the timing of this discussion is just so poor with how the Bills have been playing. IF, BIG IF, the Bills lose to an inferior opponent early in the playoffs, fine have this conversation. But it is ridiculous to me to be talking about it at this point. -
Per BuffaloBills.com: In the game against New England, the Bills tied the franchise record for most rushing touchdowns in a single season with 29. The team had 29 rushing TDs in 2016. Obviously, they will most likely break the record this Sunday. Cook is the first Bills RB with 40+ yard TD runs in consecutive games since Mike Gillislee in 2015. James Cook has surpassed 100 rushing yards for the second straight game. Cook is the first Bill to do so since Josh Allen in 2018 and the first Bills RB since LeSean McCoy in 2016. All I have to say is that I hope to see a heavy dose of Cook in the playoffs. Though I do have to say that for the most part I have liked the way that Brady has deployed the three running backs this season (using each man to his skillset, plus they should all still be fresh). But there are times (like in this past New England game) where I wish Brady used Cook a bit more, be it running or receiving out of the backfield (not necessarily over the other backs touches, but over some of the downfield passing---opponent dependent, of course).
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Weapons of Mass Production on The Bills Offense
folz replied to T master's topic in The Stadium Wall
To be honest, Ty was a guy that I didn't think much of after his time with the Jets. He made a few nice plays for us last year, but with the team drafting Davis, he was definitely an after thought to me and I wouldn't have been upset if he got lost in the numbers. But I was wrong. I don't care what his overall stats look like (though no one is turning up their nose at 5 TDs), the kid has been ballin' and I'm glad he is a Bill. As for Dawson, didn't kick up any fuss when Kincaid was drafted, instead, took him under his wing and continued to grind. Glad to see he's getting his moments to shine also, with so many other weapons. EVERYBODY EATS RIGHT? top receiver/top rusher Players who scored a TD (other than Allen) week 1 Coleman/Cook Shakir, Hollins, Cook week 2 Shakir/Cook Cook week 3 Shakir/Allen Cook, Davis, Johnson, Shakir, Coleman, Kincaid week 4 Shakir/Cook Johnson week 5 Coleman/Cook Cook, Coleman week 6 Davis/Davis Knox, Hollins week 7 Coleman/Davis Davis, Cook, Cooper, Johnson week 8 Shakir/Cook Cook, Coleman, Kincaid week 9 Davis/Cook Davis, Hollins, Morris week 10 Hollins/Cook Cook week 11 Shakir/Allen Cook, Samuel week 12 Knox/Cook Cook, Davis, Hollins week 13 Shakir/Allen Shakir, Hollins, Johnson week 14 Johnson/Cook Cook, Shakir, Davis -Fourteen players have caught a pass from Josh this season (including himself) -Eleven different players have caught a TD pass from Josh this season -Josh has eight games where he has hit 9 or more receivers in the game -Josh has three games where he hit 10 different receivers (and he does not have a game where he has hit fewer than 7 different receivers) How could the players not buy in? Everyone is getting their moments to shine, while the team is winning. -
Where would Jim Kelly in his prime rank amongst todays QBs?
folz replied to Victory Formation's topic in The Stadium Wall
I guess the next question would then be, where would Lamar stack up back in Jim's day? Is Lamar better than Montana, Elway, Marino, Young, and Favre? If not, then he might not have his MVPs either. Yes, Lamar won his in a league with Mahomes and Allen (though he probably shouldn't have won the 2nd one last year), but it seems like a pretty random way to make a comparison. Too many other factors involved. -
I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better
folz replied to JerseyBills's topic in The Stadium Wall
Thought I'd look at the numbers of with and without Amari. My initial instinct was, of course he helps, but the boys were doing pretty good without him too (they scored over 30 points 5 times without Amari being on the field). But then I looked at the numbers. Six Games with Amari: 220 points and 2,502 yards of offensive Eight Games without Amari: 225 points and 2,598 yards of offense Per game that looks like: With Amari: 417 yards/game and 36.66 points/game. Without Amari: 325 yards/game and 28.13 points/game. Now some of the improvement is obviously just the offense as a whole getting better as the year goes on (there were a lot of new pieces at the start of the year and along the way that needed to get acclimated). And hard to say one way or the other that the Baltimore and Houston games would have gone differently if Amari was on the field. But, it's also pretty hard to look at those stats and not say that Amari has had a HUGE impact on the offense. Now, having said that and acknowledging that trading for Cooper shows that the team believed, as many of you did, that we did still need a WR1 (even if he wasn't going to be catching 80-100 balls in this offense), can't some of you guys acknowledge that Coleman, Shakir, Hollins, and the use of the TEs and RBs in the passing game has all turned out better than what you expected too (with or without Amari in the conversation)? It seems that most of us were all a little bit right and a little bit wrong in our preseason assessments of the WR room/passing offense, imo. -
I went with the deep shot to Keon. Fastest 50 air yards in NFL history and dropped right in the bucket, after directing his receiver, while running to/dancing at the sideline, as he's getting pummeled by a defender. Not many guys in the history of the league are making that pass. But the fact that you can even point out that many unbelievable throws from just one game is insane and shows just how lucky we are as Bills fans right now. Some QBs would be hard-pressed to come up with 8 better highlights across their whole season, let alone from one game.
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Where would Jim Kelly in his prime rank amongst todays QBs?
folz replied to Victory Formation's topic in The Stadium Wall
No question about Marino. But, he is probably the greatest pure passer the league has ever seen. Also, you have to look at offenses when comparing stats. Miami never had a run game. It was pass all day long with Marino. The Chargers were nicknamed, "Air Coryell," because they were throwing it all over the yard. And Moon was in the run-and-shoot offense. The league was in a transition to a higher passing league and those three teams were at the forefront of it. Yes, Kelly ran the no-huddle, K-Gun. But that was fast tempo, not necessarily a pass-first offense. A lot of the offense still ran through Thurman. Sometimes it's more about the eye test, how they performed in the big games, were they a winner, did they elevate teammates, etc. rather than just stats. I mean, are you actually trying to argue that Jim Everett was equal to or a better QB than Jim Kelly? In one fewer career seasons, Kelly had 37 more wins, 34 more TDs, and 9 more playoff victories than Everett. Does that not count when talking about greatness? Also, Jim lost two years of stats playing in the USFL. I know the competition wasn't as high in that league, but they were embracing the pass first mentality. In that type of offense, Jim had 9,842 yards and 83 TDs in 2 seasons (that's an average of 4,921 yards and 41.5 TDs per season). Again, lesser competition, but it's obvious that Jim was also a prolific passer when called upon to do so. -
Where would Jim Kelly in his prime rank amongst todays QBs?
folz replied to Victory Formation's topic in The Stadium Wall
Yeah, it's one of those sports opinions that can never be answered, so everyone can stand firm on the stance they've taken. As others have stated, the rule changes have seriously inflated numbers. So, it's hard to compare stats. But to me, the biggest change is protecting the QB. If you didn't have the fastest release in the world back in the day (Marino), you got absolutely pummeled as a QB. That not only makes it more difficult to get your passes off, or to run as a QB, but it also shortened many QBs careers (Kelly being a prime example), with concussions or other injuries. Back in the day, if a QB was 34-35, he was OLD...and there weren't many of them around that age. Brady played to 45. For instance, I still think Mahomes would be a great QB back in the day, but he wouldn't be able to pull off all of the cutesy things that KC does, or do his tip-toeing the sideline, etc. without getting blown up. He has already had a few injuries in his career. How durable would he have been back then, would his career have been shortened? Are there other QBs today that couldn't take the punishment back in the day? Yes, I'm looking at you Tua. Would any of the greats from the 90s not be able to be great in today's game? No, I don't think so. If you put Kelly, Elway, Marino, Montana, Young, Aikman in today's NFL, they are all still studs. Yes, there are more mobile QBs in today's NFL, but guys like Stafford, Rodgers, Goff, Burrow, Brady, Manning, Brees, etc. prove that pocket passers can still do just fine in the league today. In a lot of the greatest QBs of all-time lists, Jim Kelly probably averages around #20. When all is said and done, who from this era would rank higher than 20 on an all-time list? I'm going to say definitely Mahomes and Allen (even though Josh hasn't made a SB yet, it's coming); if Jackson keeps up his production throughout his career, I'd say yes. His playoff performances currently would have me saying no. Maybe I haven't watched enough of Burrow, but I just don't see him in the upper-tier with the other three guys yet. Yeah, he's got swag and a Super Bowl appearance...but I'm not totally sold yet (as far as him being an all-time great). Though his demeanor may be closest to Kelly of the current QBs. Rodgers in his prime, obviously ahead of Kelly. But if you are talking prime Kelly vs. old Rodgers (today), no. Wilson has a chance to be ahead of Kelly due to the Super Bowl win (and depending on how he finishes his career). But given a choice, I'm not taking him over Kelly. Does Herbert have a killer instinct? Big arm, yes, but can he carry a team? Goff, Stafford, and Hurts. Hmmm...I don't know, I don't think I'm taking any of them over Kelly. I'm not sure they have the same level of toughness and leadership that Kelly did, or the consistent ability to elevate the rest of the team.. So, as it stands, I think Mahomes, Allen, and Rodgers will all be ahead of Jim when all is said and done. Lamar also has a very good chance of doing so. Maybe Stafford and Wilson because they have rings, but I don't think they're better QBs than Kelly (i.e., I would chose Kelly as my QB over either one). Maybe Burrow has a shot in the long run, but he has a lot more to prove still. That's pretty much it for me (obviously we don't have enough info yet on guys like Stroud and the rookies to assess them yet). So, I'd put prime Kelly in a 3-5 range currently. The guys that said Kelly didn't have a good arm and Kelly would be a backup in today's game obviously have no clue. -
Roster moves - includes release of Toohill
folz replied to Desert Bills Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall
Yeah, wouldn't be surprised to see Toohill back on the PS. I thought he played well in spot-duty. Granted I wasn't watching him on every snap he took, just noticed him when he made a play. He played 22.35% of the defensive snaps over 13 games. He had 14 tackles; 2 TFLs; 1 sack; 1 QB hit; 2 Pressures; 1 batted ball; 1 Pass defended; 1 Fumble Recovery. -
Lamar won MVP last year, Josh will probably win this year. Josh had the better statistical year last year, Lamar is having the better statistical year this year. I guess it all balances out. It's actually pretty amazing how even their stats are across the two seasons thus far (outside of Josh having a sizable edge in TDs). 2023/2024 seasons combined Lamar: 8,822 Total Yards 66 Total TDs 10 INTs 20 Fumbles 67.6% comp. QB Rate: 111.7 QBR: 70.35 4th Q Comeback: 2 Game win drives: 2 Josh: 8,716 Total Yards 81 Total TDs 23 INTs 12 Fumbles 65.6% comp. QB Rate: 97.85 QBR: 74.45 4th Q Comeback: 2 Game win drives: 4 Just for reference: Mahomes: 7,531 Total Yards 50 Total TDs 25 INTs 7 Fumbles 67% comp. QB Rate: 91.8 QBR: 63.55 4th Q comeback: 6 Game win drive: 7 Mahomes is behind the other two in almost every statistical category, except the 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives. But, I guess that is what makes Mahomes, Mahomes. Though he's probably had many more opportunities than the other two over the last two seasons also, with as many close games as the Chiefs have played. I'll taut Josh over Lamar every day when it comes to MVP talk, or who you'd rather have as your QB, but it is pretty amazing that these two guys, who were the most doubted and ridiculed QBs in their draft class, are now tops in the league. Big props to both guys. And we're just lucky to be around to see it.
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12/15/24 Week 15 Bills @ Lions Game Post Game Thread
folz replied to BuffaloBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
So, let me get this straight. We get a big win in a game against the team that everyone has been saying is the best team in the league. On the road. In their building. With them coming off of a mini-bye with extra time to prepare. A team who is averaging 34 points a game and has scored over 40 points 5 times this season. Heck, they've scored over 50 points twice this year. They have a 183+ point differential on the year. 183! And against this juggernaut offense, we are missing 3/4s of our secondary, and then lose Cole and Milano during the game. And people are complaining about the head coach and the defense? 🤦♂️ Guys, we won. Go Bills!- 697 replies
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Defense is built to stop average and below offenses.
folz replied to TD716's topic in The Stadium Wall
Believe me, I do understand where you guys are coming from in a way, I just think that too many people ignore too much context. To the bolded: -Well, we won the Colts game and held them to 24 points despite the yardage. Their season average was 28.2 points/game. -The Texans season average was 24.1 points/game. They scored 22 points against us. And it took a bad fumble by a raw Josh Allen, an overturned TD by the sky refs on a mistake by the Texans, and a lucky, miracle play with Watson escaping the sandwich sack for them to win (in overtime, btw)---not sure that I can put any of that on coaching. -I know you won't agree, but no NFL team in history would have won that Bengals playoff game if they had been through what the Bills had been through that season and the amount of injuries they had on top of it (well maybe the Brady/Belichick Pats would, but that's it). The Bengals season average was 26.1 points per game. We allowed them 27. -The AFC championship game vs. the Chiefs, we just weren't ready yet, as a team. Didn't help that our WR corps was severely banged up and the refs let KC maul our receivers, while our defense couldn't breathe on their receivers. But either way, KC was the better team at that point. Their season average was 29.6 points/game. we gave up 38 points. -The other two Chiefs games, our defense was ravaged by injuries. So, the fact that at the end of regulation of both games combined, the Chiefs had only 3 points more than us is actually pretty impressive (despite the losses). So, when you really break things down, it always comes down to the same thing...it's not really McDermott or his defense in the playoffs...it's just the damn Chiefs. And yet, we have played them more closely than any other team in the league, with a 4-4 overall record and two of their wins (in the playoffs) being intensely close, last second wins against a decimated Bills defense. Maybe...MAYBE...we could have pulled out the 13 seconds game with different decisions by the coach, but honestly, how many of the other playoff losses were really due to bad coaching? Think about this. Our playoff record under McDermott is 5-6. At the end of regulation in 4 of the 6 games combined, the Bills were down by 10 points. 10 points over 4 games (obviously two of those games went into overtime). Do you realize how close Sean is to a 9-2 playoff record? 10 points across 4 games. Subtract the JAX game and it's 3 points total over three games (HOU, KC, KC) for an 8-3 playoff record. I just believe that we are closer than some of you guys think. We just need a year where some of the bounces go our way. [Obviously his record wouldn't be 9-2 or 8-3 if he won those games because the Bills would have played further games, so more wins and/or losses would have been added to that.] Didn't call any of those QBs elite. The bar that was set by the posts I was responding to (including this thread's OP) was above average. To me that meant say a top 16 QB. I would argue that most people would put those guys in the top half of the league for most of their careers. You could question Purdy because he's so young, but did you see his stats from last year? In fact, in 2023, Tua led the league in passing, Dak was 3rd, and Purdy was 5th. Even Carr was still 13th. How about passing TDs last year? Dak was #1, Purdy #3, Tua #5, and Carr #10. Are you really telling me those QBs are average at best? Have you seen some of the other QB play in this league? The only QBs I called elite were Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers, Jackson, and Burrow. And Sean still has 8 wins against those QBs (with three of the losses to those QBs being by the narrowest of margins---two in OT and one by 3 points). -
Defense is built to stop average and below offenses.
folz replied to TD716's topic in The Stadium Wall
First of all, no defense is perfect (except maybe the '85 Bears and the '00 Ravens). And news flash, every defense will look worse against the better QBs who have good offensive lines than they do vs. the average or worse QBs. I actually just posted about this in another thread a few days ago...dispelling the fallacy that McD can't beat the better QBs. I'll condense some info from that here: -Here are some above average QBs the Bills have beaten over the last 6 years: Tua (10 times), Mahomes (4 times), Jackson (twice), Rodgers (twice), Herbert (twice), Goff (twice), Prescott (twice), Carr, Wilson, Big Ben, Rivers, Ryan, Murray, Purdy. -Sean's record vs. Above-average quarterbacks over the last 6 seasons is 32-20 -He's 16-15 vs. like top 10 QBs in their prime [last 6 years] -He's 8-11 vs. elite QBs [last 6 years] [Mahomes, Jackson, Rodgers, Brady, Burrow---that's IF you include Burrow (2 losses) as elite]. And two of the losses to Mahomes and one to Brady were by the thinnest of margins (13 seconds/OT; 3 points; and a bad ref call in another OT game). Could just as easily be an 11-8 record. 2019 The Bills were 2nd in points allowed 2020 The Bills were 16th in points allowed 2021 The Bills were 2nd in points allowed 2022 The Bills were 2nd in points allowed 2023 The Bills were 4th in points allowed 2024 The Bills are 8th in points allowed [Obviously, a bad defensive philosophy] League average of points per game over the last 6 years is 22.9; Bills have allowed 19.4 pts/game over that same span. In the Bills' 11 post-season games under Sean McDermott, the opposing teams have averaged 23.45 points per game. The Bills have allowed three 30+ games by an opponent in eleven playoff games. [For reference, over the last 3 NFL post-seasons, the average score for the winning teams across all games was 30 points.] I have no problem with people discussing issues with the defensive line, or if we should blitz more, or use more man-coverage vs. certain teams, or what type of player we could draft to improve the defense, etc. But these posts about our defense sucks, Sean sucks, change everything, etc. seem a bit off the mark to me. There is no new blueprint to beat Sean's defense. Everyone knows how to do it, the question is can you do it with what you have. There are two ways to beat Sean's defense, imo: 1. Dink and dunk down the field, with quick short passing routes (to neutralize the D-line), and sprinkle in some short to medium runs. But this means you must play mistake-free football across numerous, long-sustained drives for 60 minutes, with consistent execution and yac. Not easy to do. 2. Get great protection from your O-line, have a QB that can make all of the throws, and excellent WR play. You can beat Sean's Defense (as the Rams did and KC has done) in this way (second-level/intermediate passing game). But again, it's tough and you need your offense hitting on all cylinders. Other than the short throws, the windows in Sean's defense are throws that not every QB can make, and not every WR can consistently come down with. Those deep outs or deep seams that take longer to develop (like the ones Stafford was hitting Nacua and Kupp on). So, your O-line needs to be playing their best to give the routes time to develop. You need to have a top-tier QB that can consistently make those types of throws, and again, your WRs will need to make some tough catches on the deep sidelines, or deep over the middle (where they could get their head knocked off). Not every team has the personnel to do that. And those that do still need to be having a near-perfect day to execute it consistently. And as we know in the NFL, not every team has their best every game or even every drive. And even if you can do all of that...you still have to outduel Allen. Can Sean's defense be had. Yes, every defense can on the right day by the right team. But over the long haul, it's been pretty darn good. No other team has been as consistently at the top of the defensive rankings over the last 6-8 years as the Bills. As far as the playoffs, yes, it's tougher because these are the better teams in the league. So, it really comes down to execution. Does the team you're playing have the personnel to beat you? If they do, are they at their best today? If yes, then it's just who makes those few extra plays, the offense or the defense (like the Nacua toe-drag catch in the Rams game, or the Kelce play in the 13-seconds game, etc.). Now, do I wish Sean had a better change-up for when a team is being that successful? Yes, but I don't really know what that would be. It's hard to just switch to an entirely different style if you don't have the right personnel or the practice at it (I mean, you can switch from zone to man coverage, but you aren't going to do something completely different/out of the blue). Seems you just need some guys on your defense (players on the field) to come up with a couple more plays than the offense does at the right moments. Four of our six playoff losses were by one score. We are talking about just a couple of plays a game going the other way. I know those losses are hard to swallow, but we are still just too close in my opinion to be wanting to blow things up in any way. Let's at least see how these playoffs go first, especially if we can finally go into them healthy. Let's not kid ourselves that there is some perfect defensive scheme out there that will consistently and perfectly be able to match up against say a high-flying KC team one week and a dominant running team like Baltimore the next week. We always hear them say, in regards to QBs, they took what the defense gave them. Because every defense has to concede something each week. That is why there are game plans. You try to take away what they are best at and you concede areas where they are weaker or less-threatening. Like the Bills will concede some rushing yards to shut down a passing attack. No defense can cover everything. If a very-talented offense is executing perfectly in all areas, just having one of those days...there isn't much more you can do than try to steal a couple of plays and outscore them, no matter what defense you are running.