Lofton80

Here is a post from KFFL on the topic. Does not look good for Bills based on this projection. Jennings being on IR and Big Pat not making Pro Bowl hurt us. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For the fifth consecutive year and sixth overall, I’ve attempted to project all of the compensatory draft picks the NFL will award. During the past three years, I’ve averaged 24.7 out of 32 exactly correct (going to the correct team in the correct round) and have been off by only one round on an average of 4.0 more. As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula. Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1993, I’ve determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with small adjustments for playing time and postseason honors. A simple method of determining for which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is this -- for every player signed, cancel out a lost player of similar value. For example, if a team signs one qualifying player for $2 million per season and loses two qualifying players, one who got $1.8 million per season and one who got $4 million per season, the team will be compensated for the $4 million player. It is possible for a team to get a compensatory pick even if it doesn’t suffer a net loss of qualifying free agents, although those type of comp picks come at the end of the seventh round, after the normal comp picks and before the non-compensatory picks that are added if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. There have been eight of these type of comp picks awarded, and in each case, the combined value of the free agents lost was significantly higher than the combined value of the free agents signed. In all eight cases, those teams lost the same number of qualifying free agents as they signed. No team has ever been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than they lost, no matter how significant the difference in combined value. I should note that my comp pick formula is merely an attempt to project the results of the actual (secret) formula, which I’m sure is more precise and complicated than my simple simulation. I don’t pretend to know the actual formula. But I think previous results indicate that my formula is a pretty good simulation. In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was voided after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released by his old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which ended on July 22 last year); if he signs after June 1, he must have been tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; he must sign for at least a certain amount of money per season; and he cannot have been permanently released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time, unless he was claimed off waivers by another team. Last year, the lowest-paid player who qualified for the NFL’s comp equation was Bobby Hamilton, who signed for $685,000 per season and started 15 games. The highest-paid player who did not qualify was Cornell Green, who signed for $710,000 per season and played only one play – and that was on special teams. To determine the approximate cutoff points for this year’s comps, I raised last year’s cutoffs by the same percentage as the increase in RFA tenders from 2004 to 2005, which was 4.5 percent. That means a player whose playing time in 2005 was equal to Bobby Hamilton’s in 2004, and who signed for about $715,000 per season, should qualify for the equation. But a player who signed for about $742,000 and almost never played (for reasons other than being on Injured Reserve) should not qualify. Determining whether players who signed for less than $800,000 per season qualify for the equation is one of the most difficult tasks when trying to project the comps. There were nine players on the bubble this year, including one whose case is the first of its kind. Kyle Vanden Bosch signed a one-year contract for only $480,000, but he started all 16 games and made the Pro Bowl. For years, I’ve wondered whether a Pro Bowl player automatically would qualify for the comp equation regardless of his salary, and now we should find out. I’m projecting that Vanden Bosch will qualify. The eight other bubble players are Anthony Thomas ($1.0 million, cut after eight weeks), Todd Peterson ($790,000, 16 GP/16 GS as kicker), Keith Burns ($790,000, played almost exclusively on special teams), Shad Meier ($770,000, played less than 30 plays all season), Stockar McDougle ($750,000, 8 Games Played/2 Games Started), Matt Lehr ($710,000, 15 GP/15 GS), Antowain Smith ($690,000, 16 GP/7 GS) and Roberto Garza (signed for $594,000 but renegotiated to $1.585 million in December, 16 GP/7 GS). I’m projecting that Vanden Bosch, Burns, Meier, McDougle, Lehr and Garza will qualify but Thomas (cut too soon) and Smith (salary too low) will not. Other than determining which players do or do not qualify for the equation, the most difficult thing about projecting the comp picks is determining the value range for each round. Last year, regardless of playing time or postseason honors, third-round comp players got at least $5.167 million per season, fourth-round comp players got $4.167 million to $5.5 million, fifth-round comp players got $2.6 million to $3.589 million, sixth-round comp players got $1.967 million to $2.91 million, and seventh-round players got $1.75 million or less. When determining the approximate ranges for this year’s comps, I again used a 4.5-percent increase over last year’s levels and adjusted for playing time and postseason honors. As I alluded to earlier, the NFL adds non-compensatory picks if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. The non-compensatory picks are given, in order, to the teams that would be drafting if there were an eighth round. If there are 28 true comps, for example, the NFL would give additional picks to the teams that would have the first four picks in the eighth round, if there were one. This year, I’m projecting that there will be only 25 true comp picks awarded, so there should be seven non-compensatory picks awarded, to Houston, New Orleans, Green Bay, San Francisco, Oakland, Tennessee and the New York Jets, in that order. Here are the projected picks, along with the compensatory player, their games played/started and their average contract value – THIRD ROUND N.Y. Jets (LaMont Jordan, $5.51 million, 14 GP/14 GS) FOURTH ROUND Denver (Reggie Hayward, $5.0 million, 15/15) Pittsburgh (Kendrell Bell, $4.974 million, 16/14) Baltimore (Gary Baxter, $5.004 million, 5/5 IR) Pittsburgh (Plaxico Burress, $4.167 million, 16/15) Baltimore (Edgerton Hartwell, $4.375 million, 5/5 IR) FIFTH ROUND Philadelphia (Derrick Burgess, $3.491 million, 16/12, Pro Bowl) Green Bay (Marco Rivera, $3.80 million, 14/14) Pittsburgh (Oliver Ross, $3.50 million, 12/11) Tampa Bay (Dwight Smith, $3.04 million, 15/15) Tennessee (Andre Dyson, $3.501 million, 10/6) Baltimore (Casey Rabach, $2.825 million, 16/16) SIXTH ROUND Philadelphia (Jermane Mayberry, $3.009 million, 11/ New England (David Patten, $2.60 million, 9/7 IR) New England (Joe Andruzzi, $2.194 million, 13/13) Indianapolis (Rick DeMulling, $2.275 million, 14/5) SEVENTH ROUND Baltimore (Bennie Anderson, $1.706 million, 16/15) Tampa Bay (Chartric Darby, $1.0 million, 14/14) St. Louis (Tommy Polley, $800,000, 16/15) St. Louis (Matt Lehr, $710,000, 15/15) Tampa Bay (Keith Burns, $790,000, 15/1) Detroit (Stockar McDougle, $750,000, (8/2) Buffalo (net value; lost $9.49 million, 19/19, IR ; signed $3.409 million, 26/23) Seattle (net value; lost $12.167 million, 47/43; signed $7.001 million, 40/35) Washington (net value; lost $10.075 million, 24/21; signed $5.425 million, 25/23 IR) Houston (non-compensatory) New Orleans (non-compensatory) Green Bay (non-compensatory) San Francisco (non-compensatory) Oakland (non-compensatory) Tennessee (non-compensatory) New York Jets (non-compensatory) Eleven of the comp picks I’ve projected appear to be on the borderline between two rounds, or at least close to the borderline. So it wouldn’t surprise me if the comp pick for Jordan is in the fourth round; if the comp picks for Baxter, Hayward and Bell are in the third round; if the comp pick for Rivera is in the fourth round; if the comp picks for Smith, Dyson and Rabach are in the sixth round; if the comp picks for Mayberry and Patten are in the fifth round; or if the comp pick for Anderson is in the sixth round. Here are the qualifying players lost and signed (in order of value) for the 15 teams that I’m projecting will receive true comp picks – BALTIMORE Lost – Gary Baxter, Edgerton Hartwell, Casey Rabach, Bennie Anderson, Travis Taylor, Marques Douglas. Signed – Keydrick Vincent, Tommy Polley. BUFFALO Lost – Jonas Jennings, Pat Williams. Signed – Bennie Anderson, Kelly Holcomb. DENVER Lost – Reggie Hayward, Kenoy Kennedy, Donnie Spragan. Signed – Stephen Alexander, Keith Burns. DETROIT Lost – Stephen Alexander, Mike McMahon, Stockar McDougle. Signed – Kenoy Kennedy, Rick DeMulling. GREEN BAY Lost – Marco Rivera, Bhawoh Jue. Signed – Adrian Klemm. INDIANAPOLIS Lost – Rick DeMulling. Signed – none. NEW ENGLAND Lost – David Patten, Joe Andruzzi, Adrian Klemm. Signed – Monty Beisel. N.Y. JETS Lost – LaMont Jordan, Kareem McKenzie, Jason Ferguson, Anthony Becht. Signed – Derrick Blaylock, Lance Legree, Barry Gardner. PHILADELPHIA Lost – Derrick Burgess, Jermane Mayberry, Ike Reese. Signed – Mike McMahon. PITTSBURGH Lost – Kendrell Bell, Plaxico Burress, Oliver Ross, Keydrick Vincent. Signed – Cedrick Wilson. SEATTLE Lost – Ken Lucas, Chike Okeafor, Orlando Huff. Signed – Andre Dyson, Bryce Fisher, Chartric Darby. ST. LOUIS Lost – Bryce Fisher, Tommy Polley, Matt Lehr. Signed – Chris Claiborne. TAMPA BAY Lost – Dwight Smith, Cosey Coleman, Chartric Darby, Keith Burns. Signed – Anthony Becht. TENNESSEE Lost – Andre Dyson, Shad Meier. Signed – Kyle Vanden Bosch. WASHINGTON Lost – Fred Smoot, Antonio Pierce. Signed – Casey Rabach, David Patten. If I’m wrong about any of the eight bubble players, that could affect the comp picks. Here’s what would happen in each case – If Kyle Vanden Bosch does not qualify but Shad Meier and Antowain Smith both do, Tennessee will get seventh-round comp picks for Meier and Smith instead of a non-compensatory seventh-round pick, and the New York Jets won’t get a non-compensatory seventh-round pick. If Kyle Vanden Bosch does not qualify but either Shad Meier or Antowain Smith does (but not both), Tennessee will get a seventh-round comp pick for that player instead of a non-compensatory seventh-round pick. If Kyle Vanden Bosch, Shad Meier and Antowain Smith all do not qualify, there is no change in the comp picks I’ve projected. If Kyle Vanden Bosch and Antowain Smith qualify but Shad Meier does not, there is no change. If Kyle Vanden Bosch qualifies but Shad Meier and Antowain Smith don’t, Tennessee won’t get a fifth-round comp pick for Andre Dyson, and Detroit will get a non-compensatory seventh-round pick. If Anthony Thomas and Roberto Garza both qualify, or if both do not qualify, there is no change. If Anthony Thomas qualifies but Roberto Garza does not, Chicago will get a seventh-round comp pick for Thomas, and the New York Jets won’t get a non-compensatory seventh-round pick. If Roberto Garza qualifies but Todd Peterson and Matt Lehr don’t, Atlanta will get a seventh-round comp pick for Jay Feely ($867,000, 16 GP/16 GS as kicker), and St. Louis won’t get a seventh-round comp pick for Matt Lehr. If Mett Lehr does not qualify but Roberto Garza and Todd Peterson do, or if none of the three players qualify, St. Louis won’t get a seventh-round comp pick for Lehr, and Detroit will get a non-compensatory seventh-round pick. If Todd Peterson does not qualify but Matt Lehr and Roberto Garza do, there is no change. If Keith Burns does not qualify, Denver will get a fifth- or sixth-round comp pick for Kenoy Kennedy ($2.80 million, 16 GP/16 GS), and Tampa Bay won’t get a seventh-round comp pick for Burns. If Stockar McDougle does not qualify, Detroit won’t get a seventh-round comp for McDougle, and Miami will get a net value comp pick in the seventh round (lost $8.567 million, 42 GP/41 GS; signed $3.233 million, 48 GP/34 GS). If a combination of the other scenarios for bubble players results in more than seven non-compensatory picks being added, the order of teams that would receive those picks after the Jets is Detroit, Arizona, Buffalo, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Cleveland. This year’s compensatory picks should be awarded sometime around March 26. After they’re announced, I’ll review what the NFL did and where my projections were incorrect (although I’ve already presented some other possibilities).

Moodrak always claims he is a scout and would be happy exclusively scouting college kids. John Guy and Jauron are helping Marv as much as TM. Fewer Eagles and Steeler FA's being looked at this year.

Guesswhoz21 is spot on. Fat guys are not part of cover 2 scheme. DT's usually go about 300-310. Bunkley looks like a good fit.

I clearly think Marv wants to trade Moulds. After TO, the market is thin for receivers and the draft has only one legitimate round #1 WR. Getting a #2 pick for him would be a windfall. Marv knows this team is two years away and keeping a disgruntled Moulds around is no good for the team. He also knows if he cuts him it sends a bad message to potential free agents. Keep him until the market settles and tell his agent to find a trade partner preferably in a different division who has cap room (Minnesota ?, Chicago? ). Worst comes to worst, Moulds avgs 7 yards a catch for the 2006 Bills.

Peters - Neal- Mangold- Villireal- Fabini would be an upgrade over last year.

Agree on the Neal pickup. As for the others, how many backups do we need?

My take on the Andre Davis pickup was to use that speed to stop teams from crowding the line. Josh Reed, Moulds, Aiken, Campell cannot run by anyone. Davis, Evans and Roscoe can stretch the field. Now getting them the ball is another issue.

Tough lunch pail kind of player. Speaking of which what happened to Runyan?

Isn't Bowen a safety?

Spikes has to be in the plans. Simply has to be.

One thing I like about Vince Young is he is a great leader. The comebacks vs USC and Ohio St on the road were against premier teams on huge stages. Delivering victories in crunch time is a rare commodity in a QB. I admit taking a QB again is crazy but I do like Vince Young. Cinci did it with Carson Palmer after burning a 1 on Akili Smith and I'd say it worked out well.

Agree that that is the best case scenario, draft is deep where hitting 5 or 6 in the top 100 would be a great building block, just want to see a veteran center and a veteran safety out there.

Seymour was drafted, they went out and got Vrabel, Brian Cox, Antowain Smith, Marc Edwards and others the first year they one. They did add Harrison, Colvin(FA) and Dillon (trade). point was they don't make big early splash in FA ala Snyder and survive.

I suspect Marv is attempting to follow the Belechek/Pioli model with the emphasis on hard working, character players. I took this off the Patriots board as they are flipping out over all the players they are losing. I think Mike32282 is close to what Marv is attempting to do. PATRIOTS OFFSEASON SURVIVAL GUIDE (One man's opinion) The recipe that has worked for the Patriots for the past several years....DOES not usually offer us, the "patriot" fan much excitement in the days of free agency....or the draft. This you MUST get used to. Do NOT expect many "star studded", or big name free agency signings for huge cash....from the Belichick led Patriots. DO expect a few LATE signings of FA players who's names you do not quickly recognize, that get signed for average/league minimum money. YOU may not know their names.....but odds are Belichick and Pioli....HAVE BEEN WATCHING them all year.....they may do well here....or they may be a bust.....but they are very low risk financially for the most part. During this time of year....EXPECT to watch the talking heads on ESPN/other Sports stations.....briefly talk about the FA moves by the Patriots, scratch their heads, look at each other blankly.....and then move on to the next team.....that just signed a "HUGE, BIG NAME star" to their roster for 100 million over 4 years....... DO not EXPECT to read anything in the newspapers or free agency/rumor websites about possible trades or aquisitions by the Patriots......IF you don't expect this.....you won't be disappointed everyday....when every other team has "moves" listed......and the Pats column is blank....... DO I AGREE with every player move he has made......OF course not.........BUT I have gotten used to the Belichick style and method in terms of the FA and draft process......and quite often......you have to just sit back, wait, and watch......

Arizona typically does not even spend to its cap so matching is no guarantee. That said, this guy doesn't warrant a huge deal.

Intriguing but Ralph would have to pony up two first round contracts himself. Minnesota may be a dance partner as well. Childress indicated backup Brad Johnson would ascend to the starting role in 2006 but he hoped to acquire a young quarterback to develop for the near future. Childress also did not rule out packaging several draft picks -- they now own the 17th, 48th and 51st picks -- to move up in the first round and select one of the draft's three premier quarterbacks: USC's Matt Leinart, Texas' Vince Young and Vanderbilt's Jay Cutler. "You look at all those eventualities and see if you feel like there is something," Childress said.

I much prefer they chase starters than someone who was out of the league and someone who has "seen time".

They make take Ngata and use a rotation. May take a player like Hawk realizing that Fletcher may be near end of contract. Best scenario is a trade back and have a chance to grab three players in top 50.

Character issues = no go with Marv

I love the pick but if we still need OLine guys by draft time we have to trade back.

Paup was done when he left here no where's near the MVP level we saw. Odomes? Reich? Bannon's best moments here were as a guard on goal line offense.

Could not agree more, he has a lot to prove for those dollars.

7 million for 2 years, not bad for an old guy.

I found this post from another message board interesting. "The fact is, despite a difference in local revenues Wilson will make a profit this year. The NFL shares 80+% of all revenue among teams, higher than any other league. Because of the TV money, all the player costs are more than covered before he does a thing. The only thing sharing more revenue would do is put more money in his pockets, not make his team more competitive. He is just making excuses for being cheap, because each team receives enough money through television to cover all of it's player payroll costs. While Buffalo obviously does not have the corporate base of support that other communities do, they could be far more aggressive in marketing their team. Besides the obvious sources of revenue like naming rights, there are other avenues to explore. Bob Kraft built his own TV station and provides his own programming. He is building a hotel and mall on the land around the stadium, and is using the stadium and team to market in other areas, like trade shows, conferences and such. Why should he share that revenue with Ralph Wilson? Why should he work so hard at maximizing his revenues so Wilson can sit around doing nothing and take a cut? What is stopping Wilson from exploring his own alternate avenues of generating revenues? Each owner has a different situation. Guys like Irsay and Rooney inherited their teams, from their fathers, who bought the teams decades ago for comparatively short money. Irsay is getting a brand new stadium built almost completely on the public dime. Paul Brown had a stadium built and maintained by the public. McNair in Houston paid well over $700M for his team. Kraft paid around $200M for the team and stadium, then invested another $350M in a new stadium. Jeffrey Lurie and Dan Snyder paid big dollars for their teams. These teams have a lot of debt. Large markets generally bring in more revenue. This is also why it costs more to purchase a team in a large market than a small one. This is America, and if one owner does a better job marketing locally and is making more money then good for him. Nobody is losing money. Besides, there is no evidence that small-market teams are at a competitive disadvantage. I defy anyone to make the case. Here is the breakdown of playoff teams last year based on market size: Giants (1) Chicago (3) NE Pats (5) Washington (8) Tampa (12) Seattle (13) Denver (18) Pittsburgh (22) Indy (25) Charlotte (27) Cinncinnati (34) Jacksonville (52) Here is a list of teams in a top ten market, that did not make the playoffs: Jets (1) Philadelphia (4) San Francisco (6) Dallas (7) Atlanta (9) Houston (10)

I am no fan of Brown but his comments are intriguing. Bengals owner Mike Brown got a shock when he arrived for work on Thursday. A printout from NFL headquarters outlined more details of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, which the league owners passed in a 30-2 vote in Dallas on Wednesday. Brown and Buffalo Bills owner Ralph Wilson were the only dissenters. Brown, who said the CBA is "tremendously costly" for low-revenue teams such as the Bengals, learned about the noneconomic features of the deal, which favors the players. Draft picks in rounds 2 through 7 can't sign a contract exceeding four years. And the loyalty clause Brown had built into player's contracts is dead. Players can no longer be subject to forfeiture of part of their signing bonuses for making derogatory comments about the team, coaches or management. "Now that has been given back in the negotiation," Brown said. "We did not know the details of that at the time we voted. "I think it's wrong to vote yes on a deal when you don't know what's in it. We did not know the noneconomic features of this deal. All of these noneconomic terms were considered of lesser weight than the (finances). The whole package should have been in front of us." Here's a more in-depth Q&A with Brown from the Dayton Daily News Q&A with Mike Brown Q. What makes it (the new deal) so challenging for the Bengals? A. The deal is tremendously costly. The high-revenue teams — although they were willing to shift money to the low-revenue teams — were not prepared to shift money in proportion to the amount the shifting costs onto us. This is a system that is based on the average. Teams pay player costs at the average. So if you're a high-revenue team (such as Dallas and Washington), you're paying less as a percentage of your income than you are if you're a low-revenue team. The low-revenue team will pay well in excess of 70 percent of its revenues to player costs. The high-revenue team will pay around 40 percent. Q. The big-market clubs seem to maximize their revenue potential. Do you? A. We think we do a good job within the constraints of our market. They (big-market teams) have a much greater amount of disposable income to appeal to than we have. If you go to some of these large markets, it's a multiple of 10 times or more than what we have in the Cincinnati market. So they should be able to make more, and they do. Do I think it's because they work harder? No. We work just as hard in the small markets. Q. What is disposable income? A. It would be the income available to spend on the products we sell, which is everything from tickets to (luxury) boxes to sponsorships, radio rights, and on and on.