Orton's Arm

On the bright side: One of those picks is in the 6th round. The other three are in the 7th. Compensatory picks can't be traded. Of the four guys the Patriots will be drafting, how many will make the final roster cut? How many will still be with the team in a couple years? To be honest, I'm not too worried about this. Only four picks total were distributed in rounds 3 and 4--where the picks do the most good--and none of those earlier picks went to division rivals.

This is a tough crowd! Since the last video didn't exactly get rave reviews, here's a better one.

Hitler has been a longtime fan of this Bills team. We all know how he felt about the Terrell Owens signing. But what many people don't realize is that he was really pumped up before the Bills/Cowboys Super Bowl.

I agree with part of the above, and strongly disagree with the other part. Our offensive line is a very serious problem; and really needs a LT. By no possible stretch of the imagination is Bell the answer. But that said, the fact that Bills fans are currently toying with the idea of signing Todd Collins to be our starting quarterback tells me all I need to know about our current quarterback situation. (That, and the fact that some of them seem a little convincing when they make the point that Collins may actually be an upgrade over what we currently have.) A good quarterback is a crucial part of winning football games, and right now the Bills don't have one. Haven't had one since Kelly hung up his cleats. If a guy like Clausen can solve that problem, the Bills should do whatever it takes to draft him. Definitely including trading up! Quarterback is both the most difficult to fill position and is also the most important. The argument can be made that all QBs look the same while lying on their backs. And that's true. Trading up in the draft means that we won't fill other holes early in the draft, especially at a premium position like LT. In which case, the Bills should have Clausen sit during his rookie year, and draft a stud LT with their first round pick of the 2011 draft. Sure, there will still be plenty of holes on this team even after the holes at QB and LT have been filled. The Bills would still need a RT, a #1 WR to line up opposite Evans, a NT, and help at several other positions. Of course, some of those needs could be filled with whichever picks weren't used on Clausen or the LT.

Taylor Mays, SS. This team does not need to spend yet another top-15 pick on a DB!!

The Bills are a rebuilding team. Rebuilding teams should not trade away valuable draft picks to acquire aging veterans. The proposed McNabb trade is no exception, and should not be seriously considered.

In the above post, you appeared to put Incognito into the same "crazies" category as Ryan Leaf and Todd Marinovich. Say what you will about Incognito, but you can count on him to play the game with passion and dedication. Not something that's always been said about Leaf or Marinovich!! Offensive linemen can lose you yards all the time. Holding penalties, false starts, letting the quarterback get sacked. I lump personal foul yards in with those other yards. Over the course of a season, does Incognito give up more yards (in sacks allowed combined with penalties) than you'd expect from an interior lineman? My gut says that he does not, but it would be interesting to see quantitative data on that subject. Personal foul yards are harder for fans and coaches to accept than yards lost through holding penalties or other more "normal" means. It's not like there's an obvious need for a guy on your team to head-butt an opposing player and thereby draw a foul. But when all is said and done, a yard lost through a boneheaded (so to speak) personal foul is the same as a yard lost through some other, more "legitimate" means, such as a sack allowed or a false start. Had they chosen it, the Bills could have had an interior line of Levitre, Wood, and Incognito. (Hangartnar would have taken Wood's place at center while the latter player heals.) The question we need to ask ourselves is whether an interior line consisting of two reasonably good players (Levitre and Wood) and one guy who needs to be replaced (Hangartnar) will result in more total "bad" yards (sacks allowed plus penalty yards) than a line with Incognito would have. I think the Incognito line has the edge there. Add in the yards you can gain with better run blocking, and at least to me the decision to keep Incognito is a slam dunk. The only reason I'd see for getting rid of the guy is if it was felt he was undermining the authority of the coaching staff or something.

But but but . . . I thought that if a free agent didn't get at least ten invites on the first day of free agency, it meant that no one was interested in him, period!! I saw it right here on these forums!!! But I'm not too worried about this. What does Bill Parcells know about offensive linemen anyway?

McKelvin had to run it out if the goal was to use up the two minute warning on that particular play. There was no strategic error in calling for him to return it. But once he started encountering Patriots players, he should have gone down quickly. (As opposed to remaining upright as long as possible so they could strip the ball away.)

This.

"A Raiders reject is a good enough offensive lineman for us!" exclaimed a source in the Bills' front office who asked to remain anonymous. "The last time around when the Raiders wanted to get rid of an offensive lineman, it turned into the Langston Walker signing. I mean, sure, maybe we overpaid for Langston a little, but he eventually turned into a stellar left tackle! The Green signing is equally exciting." Said Green, "This is the proudest day of my life. I'm joining a pantheon of offensive line talent that, over the years, has seen such all-time greats as Greg Jerman, Bennie Anderson, Melvin Fowler, Duke Preston, Trey Teague, Jason Whittle, Mike Gandy, Mike Williams, Derrick Dockery, Chris Villarrial, Tuten Reyes, and others. I only hope I will someday be worthy to have my name mentioned in the same sentence as any of them." A nationally syndicated sports analyst recently commented, "It looks like the Bills are committed to maintaining the same standard of offensive line play they've had over the last ten years. No one thought they could do it, but they appear well on their way to pulling it off!"

It's my understanding that the better free agents generally go early in the free agency period, whereas other guys are generally made to wait around a bit before being snapped up. Obviously Incognito falls into the latter category. Let's let the free agency period play out and see where he ultimately winds up, and what kind of contract he's given.

In your thread title, you asked why no other teams have signed him yet. The answer: they wanted to, but he went incognito.

Eli Manning had a very good season in 2009; throwing for over 4000 yards, 7.9 yards per pass attempt, and a QB rating of 93.1. He also played well in the 2007 playoffs and in the Super Bowl; and was named the MVP of that game. I'm not suggesting that Eli Manning is as good as Brady. Eli Manning may have been the better quarterback on the day of that Super Bowl due to a combination of Manning's rising to the occasion and Brady's injury. But that fact aside, I agree that the Giants' defense and offensive line did a better job than their Patriots' counterparts; and that that difference in play was critical in deciding the outcome of the Super Bowl. By no means am I suggesting here that a good quarterback, alone, is nearly enough to give you a good football team. He's simply the most critical and hardest-to-obtain piece of the puzzle; and should be considered the most potentially valuable player acquisition you can make in any rebuilding effort.

While I agree Parcells has often had good QBs, it's not 100% clear how much importance he's actually placed on the position. As someone pointed out, Simms was drafted before Parcells got to the Giants; and early in Simms' career Parcells made him ride the bench for a year in favor of Scott Brunner! Then later (when Parcells was the head coach of the Patriots), they drafted Bledsoe first overall. Okay, that might seem to indicate a high importance on the QB position! But Parcells left the Patriots a few years later because of his lack of input into player personnel decisions. He said that if they want you to make dinner, they should let you buy the ingredients. So we don't necessarily know whether Bledsoe would have been the Patriots' pick if the decision had been up to Parcells. As for Testaverde: the Jets signed him in free agency, for a fairly reasonable price if I recall. The fact that he was once a first overall pick didn't mean much there, any more than the fact that Trent Dilfer had once been a first round pick of the Bucs made him an elite-level free agent signing when the Ravens brought him on board. Testaverde was a seasoned veteran. You knew he'd give you solid play, but you also knew there was a big difference between Testaverde and, say, Joe Montana. With the possible exception of the Bledsoe pick, Parcells has not demonstrated a willingness to use first round picks on the QB position.

That was a while ago. Hitler has mellowed since then.

Agreed. This is a rebuilding team. The idea of trading away early draft picks for aging vets should not be considered. It should never be considered for rebuilding teams!! :wallbash: The college QB I find most interesting is Clausen. While I'm not a big college football fan, a lot of people whose opinion I respect have indicated he's the real deal. If they're right, he's worth taking at #9. If they're right, it could be worth it to pay a substantial price to trade up to grab him. Let's say--for the sake of argument--that Clausen becomes the next Matt Ryan. And let's say we give up a whole draft to get him. Looking back on past drafts, are there any recent ones that you wouldn't trade away, lock, stock, and barrel, to get Matt Ryan? 2007: Marshawn Lynch, Paul Posluszny, Trent Edwards, Dwayne Wright, John Wendling, Derek Schouman, C. J. Ah You. 2006: Whitner, McCargo, Youboty, Ko Simpson, Kyle Williams, Brad Butler, Keith Ellison, Terrence Pennington, Aaron Merz. 2005: Roscoe Parrish, Kevin Everett, Duke Preston, Eric King, Justin Geisinger, Lionel Gates. 2004: Lee Evans, J.P. Losman, Tim Anderson, Tim Euhus, Dylan McFarland, Jonathan Smith If the Bills offered everyone from all four of those drafts to the Falcons in exchange for Matt Ryan, what do you think the Falcons would say? Or do you think they'd be able to suppress their laughter long enough to say anything at all? If trading away four of your drafts for a Matt Ryan looks good in hindsight, it's definitely worthwhile to consider trading away just one draft for a player you're convinced will be the next Matt Ryan. You just have to be right about that prediction!!

Is there any way you can list more than just one interesting non-picked player per draft slot? For example, I'd like to know who's available at #9--or perhaps which players were taken in the top 8--before making any one choice there.

Thanks for your compliment and response! I'll agree that Parcells has done well without always having stellar play from his QB. Phil Simms was a good QB. Not Hall of Fame good, necessarily, but good. As for Drew Bledsoe--the first five or so years of his career, he was playing like a Hall of Famer. I know that sounds really weird considering the kind of play we saw from Drew while he was here. I guess he has a Hall of Fame mode (his first eight games as a Bill) and a mediocre mode (everything else we saw from him). During his first few years in the league, he was often in, or close to being in, his Hall of Fame mode. Which was a big reason why the Patriots got to the Super Bowl under Parcells! Then he spent his next few years with the Patriots in mediocre mode. I agree Parcells got the Jets winning with Testaverde; but a team like that has a ceiling on what it can achieve. And that ceiling will almost always keep teams like that out of the Super Bowl. On the very rare occasions when a team like that does make it in, it will lose. Much like the Stan Humpheries-led Chargers were destroyed by Steve Young and the 49ers in that one Super Bowl. As far as which quarterback I'd draft . . . if I was GM, I'd take a strong look at Jimmy Clausen. For whatever it's worth, his junior stats are comparable to or better than the junior year stats of Peyton Manning. And he put those stats up while in a Pro-style offense; which means they're probably a lot more applicable to the NFL than the stats of someone working out of the spread might be. This is not to suggest Clausen will be the next Peyton Manning. The odds of any quarterback achieving that level of play, no matter where he's picked, are very small. But based on the data I've seen, Clausen appears to be a very strong prospect. I agree with your point about the Bills' woes in the post-Super Bowl era being due to far more than the absence of a quarterback alone. A good quarterback, alone, won't win you games. (Any more than a car with an amazing engine but no wheels will get you from point A to point B.) Not that that metaphor is perfect, because Kurt Warner + Orlando Pace will get you a much better offense than Kurt Warner + Mike Gandy. However, Kurt Warner + Mike Gandy will give you a much better offense than Jon Ogden + Trent Dilfer. The latter is why adding a franchise QB is so important, even though he's merely the first of many pieces that must be assembled for you to have a Super Bowl winner.

The year before Bill Parcells took over the Miami Dolphins, that team had gone 1-15. His first year as GM, they won the division and went to the playoffs. That quick turnaround is frequently cited as evidence that in today's NFL a rebuilding project can be completed very quickly. So let's take a closer look at what Parcells actually did, and what he's achieved as the Dolphins' GM. Upon arriving, he got rid of most of the Dolphins' roster and replaced them with his own players. But (at least for the most part) that was a case of replacing D/D- players with C/C- players. He also acquired a few first-rate players, starting with Jake Long at LT. And he added Chad Pennington at QB. Mixing in a few good or very good players from the previous regime, and he had the tools he needed to put a competitive team out there every week. Add in a little good luck, a few breaks going the Dolphins' way, the faltering of some of the teams projected to finish ahead of them in the division, and some overachieving on the Dolphins' part, and before you know it they had the division title!!! But then they were exposed in the first round of the playoffs; losing to the Ravens 27-9. That proved to be the first in a series of steps which would soon demonstrate that the Dolphins' rebuilding effort was not nearly as far along as that division title would lead one to believe. Chad Pennington--whose steady play at QB had been crucial to the Dolphins' success--soon hung up his cleats. Some of the better players Parcells inherited from the previous regime either became old, injured, or retired. While Henne did a steady job at QB, he was no Matt Ryan. They finished the season 7-9. So where do the Dolphins stand now? They're picking somewhere in the middle of the first round, long after the top two QBs will be off the board. Henne is supposed to be their QB of the future, but the bust rate for 2nd round QBs is over 90%. His QB rating for the 2009 season was 75; and he averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Unless he is able to significantly improve his level of play, it is unlikely the Dolphins will advance to the Super Bowl with him under center. Most Super Bowl champions over the last 10 - 15 years have received elite or near-elite level of play from the QB position. A QB rating of 75 doesn't cut it unless your defense is as good as the one the Ravens had in 2000. At least for the moment, the Dolphins appear to be stuck in the middle of the pack. Parcells elected to make quick improvements. In that he succeeded--perhaps a little too well. Because now the Dolphins' record is good enough--and likely to remain so, over the next few years--that they're unlikely to have access to the top-tier QBs in the draft. Unless Henne proves he's a franchise QB--which seems unlikely--the lack of access to that kind of first-rate QB will really hurt them. While the Dolphins will be a good, solid football team, they are very unlikely to win the Super Bowl unless some current factor radically changes. Neither the horde of C/C- players Parcells brought in when he took over, nor the C/C+ QB he drafted in the second round, are the stuff of which Super Bowl champions are made. What relevance does this have to the Bills? 1) If there's a franchise QB available, and if you don't have one, you draft him. Period. That's what Bill Polian would do; and that's what we should do also. 2) You do not necessarily want to see a dramatic improvement in your team's record in year 1 of the rebuilding program. Having a lousy year, record-wise, can be a good way to get the kind of elite talent you'll find toward the top of the draft. Waiting until year 2 of the rebuilding program to start seeing significant improvement is probably better. 3) A rebuilding program cannot successfully be performed in one year. If you try to do so, part of what you build will consist of solid wood and concrete, but a lot/most of it will be a mere facade. A prop--like you'd see in a movie studio--and not a real building. 4) Go Bills! Squish the fish!!

My post was in response to someone who'd written about Incognito's "character flaws" or something to that effect. My point was than anger is typically a good trait for an offensive lineman to have; because it makes him play better than he otherwise would. I am not one of your "Wood is better than Mack because Wood is angrier" people.

What specific character failings have you seen Incognito display? The worst I've seen written about him is that he sometimes loses control of his anger. But you know what? I want offensive linemen who play with a little anger. The offensive line should take it personally every time the QB gets hit!!! :thumbsup: And I'm tired of the often nonchalant attitude the offensive line has so often displayed over the last ten years about the quarterbacks it's supposed to have been protecting getting killed instead. Better to have an offensive lineman who wants to kill the other team's players than one who's willing to passively accept the destruction of his own quarterback!! Yes, I'll grant that you have to have controlled rage so that it doesn't turn into 15 yard penalties. And that there's often a fine line between rage that helps you be a better player and rage that causes you to do something stupid. Incognito has been known to cross that line on a few occasions. But I can't immediately recall his having done that in Buffalo; and it's not like the team at this point is so rich in offensive line talent that it can afford to let perfectly good players go on the basis of mistakes they might someday make. The interior of the Bills' line should be Levitre, Wood, and Incognito.

With a 3-4 defense you typically need very good players at four positions: NT, RDE, rushing OLB, and CB. Hopefully Maybin turns out to be that rushing OLB (though I have serious doubts on that score). The Bills' secondary is set--no need to draft anyone there for the next few years. Which leaves RDE and NT. This team is too full of holes at this point--on both sides of the ball--to adequately address them all in one off-season. I tend to feel that very good RDEs are rarer, and are taken earlier in the draft, than good NTs. So even though a good NT is critical to the success of the 3-4, it's a position that can probably be filled at #15 or #20 overall either in this or in some future draft. If there's a NT somewhere around there the Bills covet, they could always trade back into the first using their 2nd and 3rd round picks. Realistically, this is a three year rebuilding plan. If the defense lacks a critical piece that it needs--such as NT--until year 3 of that plan, it will just help us in the draft. In the meantime--and earlier in the rebuilding process--the Bills can focus on positions that typically take a little longer to develop, such as QB, as well as offensive linemen to protect said QB. (No sense in getting your guy killed!) As far as potential things that can go wrong with my earlier-described plan, I agree. But of what plan is that not the case? If you don't grab a QB now when one is available, you risk not getting one for years; and consequently being mired in mediocrity. The Bills haven't had a quarterback since Kelly hung up his cleats. (With the exception of Flutie's good season and Bledsoe's stellar half season.) The current Bills team has holes at key positions like QB, LT, RT, RDE, NT, WR, rushing OLB, and probably one or two others. Of the four hardest-to-fill positions--QB, LT, RDE, and CB--the Bills have gaping holes at three. Any rebuilding process is going to take time to get things right, and will leave large holes over the short-term. That's acceptable--the price of doing business in fact--as long as there's a viable plan to have very solid answers in place by the end of year 3.

Yeah, I'd forgotten about some of those guys. Though I was thinking more in terms of guys still playing, which rules out Brad Johnson and Rich Gannon. Also Trent Dilfer was initially chosen in the first round (though never quite living up to his first round status). But that leaves Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Delhomme as QBs who weren't chosen in the first round, are still in the league, and who have done well. Good memory!

The last time someone wrote something along those lines, Brad Butler announced his retirement. The time before that, it was the Eric Wood injury. . . .