Polian is a shrewd GM, and I believe he will avoid getting into cap hell. Having said that, the Colts are a team built to put fans in the seats, make money, and make the playoff every year. There is no expectations that they will make a run, just play consistently well enough to make the playoffs.
If they should get lucky against a NE or Pitt team, it is possible that they could play SD in the AFC Championship game and the weather will favor the Colts Offense.