Dr. Who

Well, devil, I don't think there is a DE that fits your criteria outside of Latu. I don't think Verse is that fella, and I sure don't think it's Chop or the Mizzou Robinson. The defensive difference maker you are looking for won't be there at #28. I don't think you're finding him in this draft, frankly. Edge is about the worst position, in terms of numbers and quality. Reaching at the bottom of the first for an answer to lack of a dominant defensive presence is not an answer if its driven more by contemplation of a bare cupboard after 2024 than intrinsic value of the available players. Also fast, with good hands, and fashion sense.

Dammit, be quiet man. It's our secret.

What do you make of the news that the Bills have a private work out with Troy Franklin? I had dropped him a round after his terrible Combine and coming in lighter and shorter than expected. Apparently he was ill right before or at the Combine, and is back to 180 lbs.

Interesting, I had not heard that. It might work out for us, then.

He had a disastrous Combine, and smaller than publicized. Maybe he persuades with a good workout. Round 2 for me at this point.

PFN updated their board for St. Patty's Day. This is my favorite so far. Traded back a bit to pick up a third. Don't care if folks don't like the double dip, etc. etc., it would be a great draft. BUF 30. Adonai MitchellWR Texas 60. Ladd McConkeyWR Georgia 93. Javon BullardS Georgia 128. DeWayne CarterDT Duke 134. Tanor BortoliniOC Wisconsin 144. Jordan JeffersonDT LSU 160. Cedric JohnsonEDGE Ole Miss 163. Jaylon CarliesS Missouri 189. Isaac GuerendoRB Louisville 200. Dylan McMahonOG NC State 204. Nehemiah PritchettCB Auburn 248. Anim DankwahOT Howard

That tried and true method gets you a consistent playoff team. It doesn't really get you to Conference championship games or the Super Bowl. The edge players at #28 are at best typical late first round prospects (I don't think they are even that, really.) Unless you are talking about Sweat, who is a second round fella, the first round DTs mainly play the same role as Ed Oliver. You can get solid DTs in the second, and some decent ones later. I think the value on the D side late first is more likely to be at CB. If Cooper Dejean is sitting there, I can see Beane pulling the trigger, though he's a safety in the NFL. Still believe WR is the best option, and still think the ruthless cutting away of overpriced veterans with solid history in the locker room suggests Beane is moving out of his comfort zone.

He's a whippet. We need a fast German Shepherd.

That also depends, of course, on what the trade offer is, but everyone typically assumes getting a third back, which we lack. I've read online some of that rumor about Mitchell. Obviously, I don't have inside information, and I assume Beane will exercise due diligence. Wisdom has to make a judgment that takes into consideration multiple factors, and it could just as easily decide to take a risk on some questionable aspects if there is a feeling that it is not a matter of set character, or if the degree of talent and potential still has a strong capacity to pay off. There's an art to it, beyond anything that can be purely quantified. On the outside, I think Mitchell can be as good as anyone at WR in this draft, so there would have to be substantial red flags to drop him from consideration in the first for me.

There's another thread where some bright folks talk about this, but part of hitting on a first rounder is the cost control at a position. If you hit on a future WR1, you're essentially saving 25 to 30 million on the cap that can be distributed elsewhere in constructing the team. You're not getting that kind of savings taking a Center in the first round. I also pointed out in another thread that there are at least 5 solid Center choices that can start in the NFL. You don't have to take Powers-Johnson to get a superior Center, and he's the only one likely to be chosen in the first. Frazier and Van Pran may go in the second. You could possibly get Limmer or Bortolini day 3, but for sure, you don't have to take a Center on day 1. Just because the position would make a significant difference doesn't mean it has to be addressed at the top of the draft. That is foolish management of draft assets.

I wouldn't trade up just because of KC, even though they are a significant rival in the Conference. You'll have to trade up to get Thomas, imo. You might be able to wait it out for Mitchell, but I think there's a drop off after him. I like Legette. Some might like Coleman. You could wait on them or go for Rice or Walker later. This is all assuming your target is a big X type receiver. The larger point is that I surmise if you want one of the round 1 WRs and you are sitting at #28, folks will know, and act to get ahead of you if the player is sufficiently prized. You can always gamble, or if there are enough players at a position that you value more-or-less the same, just pick whose there.

They might shift emphasis to the Oline, that would make sense, and there could be value there. But just as I don't think signing Samuel means WR is no longer a need for the Bills, I don't take signing Brown as automatically ruling out WR as both a need and a likely possibility for the Chiefs. I don't believe Beane can trust them to stay put, and I just would presume they will move up if the WR they want is within striking range. There's still calculation and speculation involved, and you could get it wrong. The poker analogies aren't inapt. Maybe KC wants Worthy, and waits it out, for instance. Beane could move up for nothing, though most teams will probably surmise WR is a target for us, and so multiple teams might consider getting ahead of us if the right player is coveted. For me, it's Thomas and Mitchell that are the fellas you think about. If you want someone else, stay put or even trade back into the early second.

Is it? If Justin Fields was any good, the Chicago Bears, a major market, wouldn’t have gotten rid of him. I don’t see Justin Fields being a star. Is Field better than Kenny Pickett? Probably, but there is a lot of who cares? None of these guys are going to be the next Ben Roelisburger. The Pittsburgh Steelers are chasing a new franchise quarterback like the Buffalo Bills did when Jim Kelly retired. I don’t see anything the Steelers did that is better than what they had in Ben Roelisburger. It’s going to eventually cost Mike Tomlin his coaching job, like it did with Bill Belichick when Tom Brady left the New England Patriots. You can’t win without an elite NFL franchise quarterback and unfortunately there is a short supply of franchise quarterbacks to go around. I think all these Steelers moves are a whole lot of nothing at the end of the day. The Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots are going to have some losing like other teams in the NFL with no franchise quarterback. It’s about time to let the Patriots and Steelers fans have to go 13 years without playoffs. The Patriots and Steelers haven’t been scary bad in a long time, and it’s time they start losing like everyone else in the NFL. Go Bills! Let’s Go Buffalo [Grammar and paragraphing is courtesy, see how that works? It also increases the chance that folks will read what you have to say.]

I can see Beane anticipating KC jumping us, and moving up to fend it off. Plan B is okay by me if they land Legette, but it ought to be plan B.

Newton is good. He's going to split time with Ed Oliver. Take the same draft and replace Newton with Mitchell, and it's excellent, and has more transformative capacity. Also, I keep seeing Lloyd around that pick. I'd rather grab Braelon Allen, but he's probably gone before then. I'd prefer Isaiah Davis or Dylan Laube at #134 if that was an option.

I don't think there are any first round safeties, but McD would love Cooper Dejean, and in a vacuum, I'd like him, too. It is a myth that there are three first round value DEs. It's one of the worst position classes in the draft. I don't think either of the Robinsons are true first round values. Latu, you should take, but he won't be there. The first round DTs mainly play the same position Ed Oliver does. It's not a good match, and not good value. Newton is good, though. I think they will try to grab Thomas or Mitchell if they can. A trade up would not shock me, especially if it is a small jump. A trade back should be the fall back option, but I think it represents a fail on Beane's part. He should go get the potential WR1, though trading back and picking up a third could work out.

Okay, there's no way Jordan Jefferson is there at #248. The model is way messed up to let that happen. I don't really like Kinchens. I'd rather take Bullard or Cole Bishop there, though #60 is too rich. But nice job, and I'll forgive it, because you somehow ended up with Thomas. If that happens, I'm going to imbibe a celebratory Guinness. If they take D in the first, I'm going to have a consolatory Guinness. I'm prepared, either way . . .

Alright, that is more rational, but I rather doubt you're going to ply away a WR close to Diggs' talent from another team. It would be expensive. Diggs may or may not want to be here. I think he likes to win, and he certainly wants to get paid. I still think it's more plausible that he was playing hurt, rather than quiet quitting the second half of the year. And also, he might be physically dropping off, and lashing out because he is unhappy about it. I dunno, but speculating discontent when no one knows the real story is pretty much fan fiction.

I know you like this sort of thing, but trading Diggs is in no way the best possible outcome for the Bills. Even if he's dropped off, he's still likely at least a very good WR2 in talent. Do you think grabbing another first, somehow, and bringing in two rookie WRs is a good idea? Do you think that is what would happen? Because if McD sees two first round picks, I can almost guarantee you at least one of them is going to play on the D side of the ball. If you lose Diggs from the WR room, you have created a large hole. The value of adding a WR early is replacing Davis, and at the same time adding a potential WR1 down the line. You don't want to ask the rookie to actually be the WR1, and you definitely don't want to bring in two rookies to replace both Diggs and Davis.

Mitchell, I think, is the best attainable choice. The top 3 are out of reach, and Thomas would be way too expensive. (But if he falls a bit, yes, go get him.) After Mitchell, there's some drop off, you can argue how much. I like Legette more than most, but you can probably get him in the second. I wouldn't take Coleman in the first, but I'm okay in the second. Mitchell is the WR who if he hits is WR1 on a rookie contract for five years. And you might not need to make a ridiculous leap up to grab him. If I were Beane, I'm probably not waiting for KC or someone else to knife me in the back. Folks can cry all they want about Beane getting antsy, I'd trade up to fend off the wolves.

Okay, at this point, we are talking past one another to some degree. I'm not talking about blowing the doors off elite teams in the postseason. That is unlikely to happen. We have invested heavily in DL and DB in the past, only to falter in the post-season. Would we have won last season without the spate of injuries? Unknown, but it's not a ridiculous surmise. It could have happened. I wrote in the thread on mid-round players that folks think are going to be good players a list at Center, DT, and S. Center is one of the better positions in the draft. You have one possible first rounder (Powers-Johnson) and a couple of day 2 fellas (Frazier and Van Pran). There are also a couple of day 3 Centers (probably) that are above average (Limmer and Bortolini). The Bills can get one of them. I think you have undervalued my point that stressing the opposing offense to keep up can make the job of the D easier. And naturally, no one is likely to be the '85 Bears, that was a rhetorical gesture. You need an effective D, and it is better to have a dominating one, but that is hard to achieve in this era. And I think we have not sufficiently played into our strength, which is the elite and very rare talent of Josh Allen. And then, it is always a matter of where the strength of an individual draft lies. I don't think there is an edge player worth the early pick, unless Latu falls way further than anyone anticipates. Anyway, if they go D early, I hope it's for Cooper Dejean or a top CB, because the value isn't there at the DL position. I think it would be a waste of an opportunity to grab a potential WR1, but whoever they select, I'll be hoping it is a difference maker, and I'm sure you will be, too.

I think this is the most rational plan. It weds daring to reason, which is a good combination. Fortune favors the bold, but not often the foolhardy. I don't think this is foolish, but all we can do is guess at what Beane is thinking. This is a plausible interpretation, and it was my first thought when they signed Samuel. However, I'm sure McD wants his DL or Cooper Dejean, so it could still go in many diverse directions. Nearly six weeks till we have an answer, plenty of time for folks to speculate trading away Diggs or deciding to take defensive players in the top two rounds.

Of course, those of us who agree on this are going to find these points insightful, and the contrary views obtuse to the obvious. All the same, a very cogent point.

And that is where the value of the position has to be a big part of the calculation. If you hit on a safety, you're not saving 30 million dollars on the cap.

I like Isaiah Davis and Dylan Laube as mid-round RBs. Tykee Smith and Jaylon Carlies as mid-round safeties. I like Keith Randolph, Jr. as a later round DT. DeWayne Carter if he slips, but he's likely a day 2 pick. And there are a lot of good Centers in the draft. Everyone talks about Jackson Powers-Johnson, but Zach Frazier, Sedrick Van Pran, Tanor Bortolini, and Beaux Limmer are all very good players. The latter two might be there in the fourth or fifth.