plenzmd1

The thinking that Vegas Makes a line to get 50% on each side and only makes money on the vig is just wrong. On certain games, they do have a pretty even amount on each side and as , you say, make their money on the vig..., but many games they "fade" the public pretty freaking hard. Yesterday, for instance, Vegas was betting hard that neither Cinci or Baltimore would win and cover..just about 75% of the money bet on those games was on one side(Ravens and Bengals). Vegas got beat in those games As a rule, the public bets favorites and "name " teams..Packers, Steelers, Cowboys..etc. Vegas tends to take the other side in those games. On weeks where lots of favorites cover, Vegas gets beat. When lots of underdogs cover, Vegas tends to win. ( btw, need to make a distinction here..Vegas should be "books"). So they lose a little money on Cinci and Baltimore but win big on the Bears last night. Most likely way more money bet on the Sunday night game than the other two games combined. Here is a good article to give yu a feel for what i mean http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18836496/nfl-was-cause-rough-stretch-las-vegas-sportsbooks-nfl-season If you read the thread, you noticed common and myself discussing what teams all the public money were being bet on..and staying away from those games or going agsint the public. That's usually a decent strategy..over a long period of time. Like hitting 16 in blackjack..its the right move over time..but any individual case can vary. Cinci taking all the money as a dog was EXTREMELY rare..and why I wanted no part of that game. When I started looking at the slate of games, Cinci was my #1 pick..but that money flow scared me off. This time it hurt me..but I will continue to use money flows as I make my bets every week. Where Common and I differ is in the use of points..I never use em, he likes them. Does not mean one is right or wrong, just where you feel comfortable. Historically, in only 20% of games in the NFL points come into play..meaning the underdog loses but covers the point spread. 80% of games, whoever wins the games, wins the bet. So far in week 1, 3 of 14 games the points came into play.. .so right at the historical average of 21%. So my betting strategy over the years had evolved to where I only play dogs on the moneyline...and a lot of times I am getting 2 to 1 on my money or better. Now if I went 50% on my picks..I would absolutely crush it and have an outstanding year. If I pick 40% winners...that's a really good year and I have done that several of the last number of years. Last year it all went south on me... I picked a ton of dogs that covered but did not win games..some of them getting 8,9, 10 points. That's when people told me I was an idiot for not taking the points...but I will live with that? . Last word..if someone picks 60% winners consistently, they prolly lying!!!! BTW, if you want to follow "sharps" ..watch what happens when the following week's lines come out on Sunday night. Bills opened +9. for the Chargers.already down to +7 1/2. That ain't JoeQ public betting and moving a line ..that is guys(sharps) who live to spot lines that are wrong and jump on them.

Can I cancel my tickets and just come to tailgate? @Hammered a Lot , you need security during the game...I am your man! I will work for a decent 6 pack!

This is as wrong as wrong can be

hmm, that interesting.. Initial answer is "hopefully soon at the OTB and on your phone" try betonline..think i heard Shopp mention the other day that is who he uses why, why do you persist in ruining my day!!!! What really pisses me off is I could not get a moneyline on the Temple Nova game. Nova was +15...that would be at least 400...and I am telling you I would have put the same amount on it as i did taking the points... BTW, did you watch the game? Temple will now be perceived to be the worst team in FBS..and may be some opportunity to jump on them if underbet..did UB dominate or was it close and just a few plays decided the outcome ? UB was certainly undervalued going into this game..and beating Temple won't do much for them either in the betting public eyes.

Kirby, not to be a jerk( but its what I am good at) why did you take the Bengals money line? I play teasers very rarely so this may not make sense...but hear me out I lay pretty low first couple of weeks, especially last 4 years or so. The one game that caught my attention early n the week was the Bengals..thought it would be the play of the day. However, so did the rest of America so i am not playing it now. the thing that caught my eye, however, was the money line..was 110 at Bovada. At that low number, I would just take the points...the extra 10% not worth giving up what is now 2 1/2. I know too late now, but did you run payoff with just the Bengals covering? Would be interesting to see how it affected that bet...all this assuming i read your post correctly (edit) and please for the love of all that is holy do not tell me there was juice and a decent moneyline on UB yesterday. Freaking Temple lost to Nova the week before...and truly got outclassed and was overmatched. I am going to look now..but you are on my all time chit list if you did not post in the college gambling thread this play...as I mentioned in there, I had no time to look at college game this week and asked for a moneyline winner...you are DEAD to me? (edit2) oh my freaking stars..the Bulls opened at +6.5?????? my retirement staring me in the face and I missed it! Holy hell, how did that line get posted???? UB has 3 NFL caliber players..Temple was whooped by team not even ranked in the Top 10 of FCS...I HATE YOU KIRBY!!!!!!!

Very few Sharps enjoy long term, consistent success either. contrary to public perception. If they did, Itvwould be become my vocation instead of my advocation LOL

last week i should have been retired on college ball! I am an FCS fan..can usually spot wrong lines pretty quick that first week of the year...but the books got smart and dont offer moneylines anymore on FCS-FBS matchups. Here is my post from last Saturday morning...everyone an easy winner. My "play o the day" Nova was a 15 point dog, won easy..money line would have been close to 400...oh well

The money line is strictly a bet on who will win the game, no points involved In the Bills game, the Bills are getting 8 points. So if you bet $100, and the Bills win the game or lose by 7 points or less, you win 100. So if the Bills lose by 4, you still win the bet. If they win the game outright, you still win just the amount the bet..or $100. Now lets say you the Bills win the game, and you bet the money line..you win $270 But if the Bills lose by that same 4 as above..you lose the $100.The Bills have to win the game. Also, if you wanted to bet the Ravens to win as the favorite and not lay the points you would have to wager$340 to win $100. Hope that helps when you think this way..especially at +270..you have to get something down on the money line

I agree , all the money on the Ravens, that’s why I like the Bills, and the Bengals scare the poop out of me. All the money on the Bengals.. a dog. And that very rarely happens. Again, nothing is ever for sure.if it was, I would own the freakin Bills! I like a small moneyline bet in the Bills. What I mean is if my average bet was 1 unit , I would bet .35 on the Bills money line ..

Might not..but I rarely, like never, vary from my tried and true method of only betting dogs on the money line. 20 % of the times it burns as the dog covers..the other 80% if games whoever wins the game wins the bet...points just don't come into play. Just like any "system, it is not a sure thing...got murdered last year and went broke playing moneylines instead of taking the points... taking the points would have been a profitable year...but ya pays ya money, ya take ya chances! I am going to track some other variables on that this year..incorporating public money flows and some other metrics

At 9 am this morning, 75% of money on Ravens..as of 6:30..74%. Hmm I actually like a small play on the BIlls moneyline here at +270. PLay I really thought I would like is Cinci +2.5..but that is also 75% of the money on Cinci...that much on the side I like scares the hell out of me..especially on the dog. Sumtin very very fishy there..play at your own risk.

Is that what should be all our emotions cause you are coming again?

The ONLY place in the IH worth going too IMHO. !! Love that place. And the kids would love a quality $18 crab cake and a Natty! I envy y’all, can’t make it to game this time!

Get yourself to Faidley’s at the Lexington Market for lunch and have the best freaking crab cake of your life. Now, I advise against using any of the used needles in the street outside though’ I kid. I kid. I have sent some folks there however who come from Lilly white burbs and get worried about the local ambiance. Don’t fret, all is good. If not Lexington market for crab cakes, find your way to Cross Steetr Market in Fed Hill. Go to the back, park your ass at one of the bat seats, swill a large bat of Natty Bo have yourself some happy hour seafood! Now that place is BMore! I am serious, not a visit to Baltimore unless you drink a Natty at the Cross st Market! just get the hell out of the inner Harbour. It’s the Times Square of Baltimore.

I am guessing there are way more things you don't know ...than you do know..even at your advanced age! So this does not surprise me

Jeez,,,are you an idiot? That has NEVER happened to me! ? I have been a little preoccupied this week and not looked at anything college..y'all like any big dogs winning a game outright today? I won't be betting anything big, just a little sumpin sumpin to keep me interested with a small moneyline bet.

thats a tough choice, but either option is a winning option! I am assuming lunch at Hammers on 10/29...I like to eat lunch at about 12.30....so I am guessing 11 am start?

Man , I love me some Kenji but that boy needs to learn to brevity is great writing trait! i always think as confit more like duck confit.. preserved in fat, then cooking.. but see this makes sense. This is sounds awesome for wings

We moved to Long Road from the Love Canal my Senior year in. high school. Almost 100% of the Falls stuff on the food part is my persomal opinion... authors prerogative !?

yes, double fry is different. The first fry takes moisture out of outer surface food...2nd fry then gets crisper outside and moister inside. Technique is especailly effective with french fries and onion rings

Thats a double fried wing..not a confit wing ...at least that is what I am thinking. Not sure I have ever heard of a confit wing. In terms of the Darby trade, Sammy trade does not happen without this trade..and vice versa..which led to Allen..so you want Darby or Allen?

depends how you look at it. I believe in smaller government, and believe people should keep more of what they make..even corporations. The question I have ... is the entire spectrum of taxpayers paying less at same rate.....and are expenditures growing at a smaller rate than revenues...if so i don't even care if revenues go down in an economy that is growing at 4%..as long as expenditures are going down by equal or greater amounts. Any delta there and we can start to attack this deficit, which is my number one fear when it comes to the economy.

Thank you..great example and exactly what I was looking for. In terms of the italicized last paragraph, that's great to see...did expenditures rise at a higher level than revenue rose?