dave mcbride

To be fair to McD, he ran an elite defensive line in 2013 that had freaking 60(!!) sacks. They were second in both points and yards allowed that year, but were arguably the best D in the league. That said, it’s worth noting that their best pass rusher by far was a legit criminal: Greg Hardy.

Agreed. A normal qb would have been sacked 12 times. KC went in with a garbage o-line, and it showed. Eric Fisher takes heat because of how high he was drafted but he is genuinely good. The replacement tonight (Remmers) was a matador, as was the RT replacement.

Agreed, but with regard to Jones, it’s on the refs to pay attention to attempts to aggro him given the history. Christ, Feliciano did it, and Jensen tonight was even more blatant. He retaliated, but the refs have to do better. I have no love for Chris Jones, but I do expect SB refs to have informed situational awareness.

The one thing I’ll push back against is the PI in the end zone. Brady threw that away (it hit the wall well beyond the EZ) and wasn’t remotely catchable. It’s not even really arguable, and it was a huge play.

Excellent point ... but the Bucs have an inordinate number of low character individuals too!

Just to be clear, i was talking about last year (see my edit of that post if you’re interested). The larger point is that they have a TON of physical talent.

In 2019, they were #2 overall according to Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA metric despite giving up a TON of points. The reason? Jameis Winston not only set a record for pick sixes, he threw picks and fumbled in his own end at a crazily high rate (and along with 30 picks Winston had a ton of fumbles too—12 total) . Most of those turnovers that occurred in their own end turned into points for the other team, and it wasn’t the Bucs’ D’s fault. Bottom line—Winston was terrible, and it had a huge impact on TB’s defensive numbers.

Karma is a b*tch, not a killer. Get it straight!

The reffing in the first half was objectively terrible, but KC was awful in the second half and deserved to lose. KC’s backup OTs looked like high school players — “Ole!” On every other play. For the first time in a long time, the SB was a terrible game. My broader take: the NFL certainly didn’t “fix” the game, but I suspect the last thing they wanted was Andy Reid winning after a (plausible) narrative emerged in which he enabled his idiot son (to the point of employing him despite no visible qualifications), who was responsible for a genuine human tragedy because of his recklessness.

For one side! The catch by Kelce on second down inside the 20 with leas than 2 minutes to go was textbook PI. Normally, who cares, but given the calls up to that point, my god. Not evidence. At all.

@Rico, why is Mahomes a prick? Be specific with evidence.

That I don’t know. The Bills know far more than any of us.

Mahomes is actually not a prick.

Brady runs down to taunt Mathieu and Mathieu gets the penalty after replying. Awesome stuff. I love the nfl.

The catch rates were effectively the same in 2019 and 2020, so what you’re saying doesn’t really matter. As a Buffalo Bill over two seasons with the same OC and the same QB, his catch rate has been the same. And if you want to do a really deep dive, bear in mind that his worst season in this regard by far, 2017 (38.2 percent), Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert started most of the games. They are bad qbs, and they were running a Bruce Arians offense that pushes the ball downfield. Stanton completed under 50 percent of his passes and Gabbert was at 55.6. Also, prior to Jackson becoming the QB in mid-late 2018, he had caught 34 balls on 67 throws. Granted, that’s barely above 50 percent, but he was also averaging 9 yards per pass attempt (601 yards on 67 throws), which is awesome. Afterward, Jackson targeted him 29 times and completed only 6 passes (a 21 percent catch rate). Anyway, context -- the qb, the system, etc. -- matters. Again, though, I agree with you that he probably will not be back. If he is out because of injury he stops being active. It’s not like he’s not getting snaps or not being targeted. He can’t play, simply put. If a player starts and goes down on the first play because of injury, it seems ridiculous to me to say that he played the game. He didn’t. Yet the stat sheet will say he played that game. Brown was functionally inactive for over a half vs. the Rams and most of a quarter vs. AZ. He wasn't hurt vs. Miami, but he didn’t play after halftime (presumably because they were concerned about re-injury).

Hapless — he came out (injury) in the first half of the rams game, missed most of the fourth quarter of the AZ game (injury again), and didn’t play in the second half of the miami game. Hence my estimation of 8 games.

Oh please. In the Bills system—i.e., the one he is playing in NOW—he catches the ball at a 63 percent rate. Also, I suggest you look at the deep throw rates in Arians offenses. They are off the charts, and he was their bomb guy for Palmer. Context actually matters. Also, while I absolutely agree with you Allen’s bomb accuracy issues, on more conventional deep throws (ie, the 25 yard throw on a rope), he is elite.

First off, while with the Bills he has averaged a 63 percent catch rate, so your numbers don’t make sense to me. Secondly, deep threats who get tossed bombs ALWAYS have lower catch rates than guys who catch short throws, and Bruce Arians pushes the ball deep more often than any other offensive coach in the league. Also, his catch rate plummeted when Lamar Jackson replaced Flacco, a good deep ball thrower (see the 2018 game logs: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowJo02/gamelog/). This is what accounts for his lifetime catch rate and nothing else. For comparison, look at RB catch rates; they’re usually around 75 percent plus. But RBs don’t take the top off of a defense and force the safeties to play deep. Brown is a currently better player than Davis (who I like; don’t get me wrong), who can’t really move his hips fluidly—which limits him coming out of cuts (just compare him to Diggs and Beasley)—and isn’t fast. (Also, bear in mind that Davis’s stats this year were skewed by two deep Barkley bombs in the finale vs. Miami in garbage time.) Davis is good at contested catches and jump balls, which is good, but remember that Daboll’s scheme is predicated on throwing windows to open guys, not contested throws. Having said all of this, I don’t expect Brown back. The Bills are cap strapped, and they have make some hard choices. And I won’t be surprised if they draft a speed guy in the third round or so. Also, Brown can go elsewhere and on some teams will be the best receiver available (ie, Jax, NE).

These stats are HIGHLY misleading. Brown essentially played in only 8 games and had 34 catches for 458 yards. Extrapolated to 16 games, that’s 68 catches for 916 yards and 6 TDs. He hasn’t been injury prone in his career, so it’s not a good idea to assume he’ll be hampered by injury again next year. He got hurt in the first half of the Rams game and again in the Cardinals game (after catching 6 balls for 72 yards), so he really played 8 full games. He also didn’t play in the second half of the finale.

He was a legitimately good qb in 2019. He has the tools, but something happened mentally to him this past season. He’s fixable and a potential franchise qb. Do you have a link to support the claim that his teammates “hated him”?

That’s terrible. It also has begin to convince me that the Chiefs may lose because of the outside distractions. Remember the 1989 bengals-niners super bowl when Stanley Wilson got arrested before the game and the 1999 SB when Eugene Robinson got arrested during SB week? It’s a real distraction, as is this. Plus KC had the covid stuff going on with the barber and they are missing their 2 starting tackles (while facing two of the best edge rushers in the league). Great minds think alike! See my post above.

Good point. His stats were abjectly terrible in 1972 by today’s standards, but if you look at his adjusted passer rating that year, it’s 100 — which is exactly league average: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTe00.htm. Another example that shows you can’t judge stats from that era using today’s stats as a benchmark. That said, he really wasn’t any good until 1975 (judged against his peers), his sixth season. After that, he was one of the league’s elite qbs. In those early years, the Steelers had a dominant run game and one of the best defenses ever. Maybe the best ever, in fact. Also, he was benched for a time in 1973: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/remember-when-joe-gilliam-takes-terry-bradshaws-starting-qb-job/. .

Where do folks place Justin Herbert on this spectrum? I ask because along with Russell Wilson in 2012 and maybe Marino in 1983, that was the most impressive rookie season for a qb I’ve seen.

Be careful there. If Garrapolo doesn’t overthrow that bomb to Emmanuel Sanders by 2 feet, we’re having a different conversation. The disparity in SF’s record when Garrapolo starts and when he doesn’t is very stark.

Palmer finished 5th in the league in MVP voting in his second season. He led the league in TD passes and completion percentage.