
Estro
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Descriptive and Inferential Statistical Analysis
Estro replied to Wizard's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
With the 9th pick in the 2010 draft the Buffalo Bills select................................. Sergio Kindle, LB, Texas -
One of the main guys for the Sporting News Draft Guide is Russ Lande, and I know from discussions we've had that Russ Lande is very high on Derrick Morgan. It's been discussed here before but Lande believes that Morgan is hands down the best DE in the draft and that no one is even close. For the record Pro Football Weekly has him rated as the #2 DE behind Jason Pierre Paul, who to me has bust written all over him. Pierre Paul has 2 years at community colleges and one season at South Florida. If Nix is true to his beliefs there is no chance we would take Pierre-Paul, with only 1 true year of experience. I don't understand all the Pierre Paul hype, is it actually possible doing 9 back hand springs in a row can raise your draft stock!?
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It appears the opinions on Derrick Mogans effectiveness in a 3-4 differ. Some say he does fit into a 3-4 others say he does not. Mayock who commented on it most recently said at his Pro Day that many scouts believe he will be most effective as a 4-3 end as he looked slow dropping in coverage. Ultimately it will come down to what the Bills brass thinks of him and if he'll fit in. Morgan is considered the #1 DE in the draft so he does warrant definite consideration in the top 10, and I think when it's all said and done he'll be gone between picks 5-10.
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Aaron Maybin hanging with McGahee in Miami
Estro replied to 1B4IDie's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
It's not just one thing with Maybin, it's a collection of things with him that irks the fans sentiment toward them. If Maybin showed some promise last season no one would care what he's doing, the problem is he looked like a boy playing with men last year. Factor in that in his most recent pictures he looks like a bulked up WR, Bills fan are generally worried that this guy is quickly becoming a bust. I didn't like Maybin coming into the draft last year, and I still don't. Dude has the swagger and attitude f an All-Pro and the only thing he's done so far in his 1 year is embarrass himself. -
Aaron Maybin hanging with McGahee in Miami
Estro replied to 1B4IDie's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Maybin is the precise example of why teams interview guys at the Senior Bowl, Combine & Pro Day's. You want to make sure you're going to draft a guy who isn't going to let fame and money go to his head. You need to find guys who will come in work their arse off and desire to get better. It's pretty obvious by the haircuts, the partying, the lack of production, all the "look at me" posts on twitter, and the fact that he's not a hard worker when it comes to football, the Bills missed the fact that this guy was too immature to be drafted as high as he went. Don't forget Schobel was quoted as saying something like, Maybin need to work a lot harder if he wants to improve. I can just imagine and in your face cocky dude who's done nothing pissing the hell out of Schobel who is just the opposite. My early prediction is that Maybin looks just as lost in our new defense as he did in last years'. The guys awareness on the field was embarrassing, for someone drafted as highly as he was. -
The rationalization is the Bills and many teams will probably have 15-20 guys rated higher than McClain on the board so why take him at #9. I don't agree with taking a guy you have rated #18 with the #9 pick because you're basically bypassing 9 players that your entire front office have deemed more valuable than they guy you're picking. McClain is decent and has a chance to be a solid Pro Bowl player down the line, but I'm sure the Bills feel that all the players they have rated above him also have a shot at being Pro Bowl type players. No one will know what the Bills board looks like, but I really would be shocked to learn if they had him in the top 15. The film on this guy is not overly impressive IMO.
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Hate to be negative, I appreciate your enthusiasm during the offseason, but I hate this mock draft, hate it. We're drafting a DT who's a late 1st round prospect, and than following it up with an OT in the early second that is a 3rd round prospect. We've reached on players enough in the past, please no more.
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I think once McClain gets into the NFL where evryone is a little bigger, stronger and faster his limitations will be exposed much moreso than they were in college. He's a good prospect, but not great by any means. Have an honest look for yourself here (a 7 minute clip of McClain on youtube.com): I see a lot of arm tackiling, high tackling, missteps, lack of speed, easily blocked, poor angles. Surprisingly he looked decent in pass coverage. The main concern is offensive lineman seem to block him easily and once they latch on he is unable to get off the block. And yes I know this is only 7 minutes of a 3 year college career, but you can't discount it either. Would you be happy with what you saw on film in this clip with our #9 pick overall if you didn't know the name on the back of the jersey? I wouldn't. He's no where near the prospect Patrick Willis was coming out of college, not close.
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That's the info I was going off of in saying he fits in at 3 different defensive postions. I was actually in that chat when Russ Lande mentioned the versatility of Morgan, and he too is very high on Morgan. Mayock apparently feels differently, and because Mayock is reporting this coming off of his Pro Day you have to put some serious stock in what he has to say. I'm sure he was chatting with various scouts. Then again scouts know Mayock is a media guy so maybe they want him to believe Morgan is only a 4-3 guy so they have a shot at him. You really can't take anything as fact this time of year because everyone is so paranoid the guy they're targeting won't last long enough.
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good catch you are right on that one. This is from CBSsportsline.com: 03/16/2010 - According to NFL Network's Mike Mayock, "just about everyone in attendance" at Georgia Tech's Pro Day believed Derrick Morgan will be a 4-3 defensive end in the NFL -- not a 3-4 outside linebacker. Morgan struggled badly when asked to drop and change direction at the Combine. He was a bit better at Monday's Pro Day, but at 6'3/266 Morgan's best fit appears to be as a base, 4-3 right or left defensive end. Mayock expects Morgan to be drafted somewhere in the top 10-20, though it appears we can cross most 3-4 clubs off the list of potential landing spots. - USA TODAY football Don't really know where he fits into the Bills D after that nugget.
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I see what you're saying but in this case Lande no longer has an affiliation to any team, hence no reason to create a smoke screen. His honest assesment of McClain is a 15-25 round 1 grade. If you watch him closely over the entire season you will see a lot of the weaknesses that are being pointed out. He gives ground and gets handled by offensive lineman too often. A solid prospect, but not a difference/playmaker type you're looking to cash in with the #9 pick. I would not be surprised to see guys like Sergio Kindle and Brandon Graham get drafted before McClain because they can pressure the QB, Rolando can not.
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Yes, Derrick Morgan can play OLB in the 3-4. One of the reasons people are so high on Morgan is the fact that they think he can project into 3 different positions. An OLB or DE in a 3-4 or a DE in a 4-3, but they say he fits in best to a 3-4 rush LB, which really makes him an attractive pick to the Bills. I personally disagree with your assesment of McClain, I know you're really high on him but I think he's a big reach at #9, especially considering we already have acceptable starters at his position on the roster. I just don't like the bang for the buck we get by reaching for McClain with the #9 pick, now if we were to trade back to say #15-20 I'd be okay with McClain. BTW, under this scenario I take Derrick Morgan, the best DE/OLB in the draft.
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I have to admit I was a huge Rolando McClain fan and thought after the National Championship game that he would go very high in the draft, maybe not even making it to the Bills #9 pick. The more I've seen of him and the more I've heard scouts discuss his weaknesses the more I realize the guy would be a huge reach for the Bills at #9. He is a very solid ILB prospect, but he fits into the 15-25 range not the #9 pick. ILB's do not carry as high a premium in the 3-4 defense as OLB or DL, which makes reaching for an ILB at #9 even more unbelievable. This isn't a post to bash McClain, I think he's good, but for those clamoring for him with our 9th pick I think you're really off base. After having a Q&A regarding 2010 draft prospects with Russ Lande (former NFL scout, now with Sportingnews.com) I was further turned off about the possibility of McCLain with our first pick. He pretty much said he's seen a lot of film on McClain and that he's not a special athlete speed wise and that he gives up a lot of ground when taking on blockers, often times getting engulfed by OL. Further evidence that the Bills will not be adding an ILB is that they have 3 veteran's on the roster who currently project as ILB's in the 3-4 (Poz, Mitchell & Andra Davis). Anyone agree? If not, flame away................
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I'm the new GM and here is what i would like to do.
Estro replied to Ball Coach's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Not a huge fan of this plan. I'd be cool with Bulaga or Trent Williams. I'd rather Spiller over McClain or Bryant as he's a much better prospect. Spiller is clearly a top 10 talent. Here would be my plan: 1: Draft Best available player (with a lean toward big tough guys that can fit into the front 7 on defense, Derrick Morgan the best 3-4 DE or OLB in the draft would be a great fit). If Okung/Bulaga/Trent Williams are still on the board all have to be seriously considered. If Morgan & the top 3 OT"s are gone try like hell to move back. If all else fails take best available which is clearly C.J. Spiller 2: If we go Defense in round 1 than I'm taking Best Available Player again (this time with a lean toward offensive lineman specifically OT). If we get our OT in round 1 than I'm leaning toward best DL/LB available with the 2nd round pick. 3. Best available 4. Best avaiable 5. Best avaiable 6. Best avaiable 6b. Best avaiable 7. Best avaiable 7b. Best avaiable And I'm using my 5th round pick, two 6th round picks and two 7th round picks as ammuntion to move up in the 4th-5th rounds to selcet guys that have 2nd and 3rd round grades. -
Charles Davis on NFL Network made his pick for the Bills
Estro replied to BuffaloBlood's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
You actually make a valid point there. If our front office views this guy as the next Chris Johnson and he turns out to be that you can't complain about a pick like that. If he's head and shoulders abover the rest as far as best player available then you have to at least consider him. They did set up a visit with him didn't they? -
Agreed. Actually I just got done doing a chat with former NFL Scout, Russ Lande of SportingNews.com and he said pretty much exactly what you did. He's never been super athletic and neither him nor Rolando McClain are rare athletes. Spikes reminded him of Lofa Tatupu and going back even further Chris Spielman. He takes on blocks well and doesn't give up ground. Surprisingly he didn't seem very high on McClain, which I kind of agree with. Weaknesses he pointed out on McClain were that he actually gives up ground trying to get around blockers and tends to get engulfed by bolckers. He thinks Spikes goes anywhere from 20-45. Said teams like the Patriots or Browns who play a big 3-4 will really like him. This guy will not last to the 3rd round which is more like a 50-75 type prospect, at least not according to this particular NFL Scout and I agree with him.
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Stroud is overrated by the average, uninformed Bills fans. But those who watch the team as closely as most of us do know he's nothing more than an average DT. He seems to dissappear during a lot of games. His play on the field does not warrant the 3rd and 5th round picks we traded to get him and the lucrative extension he signed.
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Why the Bills should be better in 2010.
Estro replied to Coach55's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Key word is, BUT. Over Juaron's 3.5 years with the team there were a lot of BUTS. Simply put Juaron was a poor excuse for an NFL Head Coach. He had little ability to make in game adjustments, but more importantly he was accepting of a losing culture. When you have a coach who can tolerate losing you're done and that's what we had under Juaron. -
With the 9th pick .... Dan Williams
Estro replied to sharper802's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Agreed. After speaking to Russ Lande, personally (an NFL Scout for both the Browns and Rams, now runs his own scouting website) he said Dan Willaims is a nice player, but not a big time player. He said he had Dan Williams rated as a late 1st round early 2nd round prospect. Let's remember his opinion is based on actual film study of Dan Williams, not just reading what other scouts think about the guy. I would not be happy with reaching for the 3rd, maybe 4th rated DT with the #9 pick in the draft. -
I like Dwan Edwards and I believe there were a few teams interested in him toward the beginning of FA. My guess is he's visited a few teams, isn't seeing the numbers he'd like to and he'll be using the Bills to get a bit more money elsewhere (see Jimmy Kennedy). I'd like to have him sign, but I don't see that one happening. Andra Davis would provide some knowledge of the defensive scheme, but his actual play is not very good. He also lacks speed and agility, which in todays NFL can really expose a LB. So-so signing, and has a higher chance of happening as I suspect there will be less interest in Davis league wide. Final prediction: Andra Davis signs with us and Dwan Edwards signs elsewhere. I'd rather the oppostie.
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As much as the sexy pick gets everyone excited, even myself sometimes, I have to agree with you. RB"s seems to have a 6-7 year shelf life and quality starters can be found in the mid-late rounds. I like everything I've heard and seen about Spiller, but I just don't like the idea of taking a RB, we are simply too bad to go that route. I'm also a big proponent for drafting the best player available, so what if he's cleary the #1 guy on your board when you pick. Do you go against your strategy and draft a need? I think the need picks is what's really, really hurt the Bills the last handful of years. I'm putting my trust in Buddy Nix over the next 2-3 years, and giving him a chance to build this team from the bottom up. By the way, does anyone know for sure if Buddy Nix has 100% control over football operations? I know that seems to be the general consensus, but I haven't heard if it's actual fact. I really hope it's the case because anything but 100% control for Nix, and the Bills will continue to sputter.
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Nolan Nawrocki's 2nd mock draft (updated from a month ago). Not surprised to see Trent Williams as the #1 OT taken, although there's been a lot of talk about Okung, I've heard many NFL Scouts have Williams rated #1. This Bills pick would make the fans flip out (in a bad way), but it wouldn't be shocking. Here it is: http://www.profootballweekly.com/2010/03/1...ld-make-history
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Saffold highlights vs. Michigan. Going up against Brandon Graham, who's a legit prospect, but isn't that what Saffold will face in the NFL? Tell me what makes you think this guy will be any good? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xwFyT3u2CQ Also, if the Bills can find a way to trade down in the 1st round......I'm a big fan of Brandon Graham and he fits into a 3-4 well. It seems Graham will go anywhere from 15-25.
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I think Mayock is right. Saffold seems to be the flavor of the month, especially with people thinking the Bills will be high on him because we have his college OL coach on board. Take a look at his highlight film.......he looks slow and sluggish. I would be unhappy with Saffold in the beginning of the second round, his play in college has not warranted that high of a draft selection.
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Saffold is a better athlete than football player. His combine type numbers are rather good and his play on the field is decent, but he is not worthy of a high second round pick. That would be a huge reach, and IMO there will be players on the Bills board rated much higher than Saffold when they pick in the 2nd round.