bills_fan

I think that people will begin to see how severe the problem is when, in a span of a month, the market is off 1500-2000 points and they are not getting their paychecks on either 10/15 or 10/30. Then they open their 3Q, 401(k) statements. As I have said before, I think that over the past two decades, we have fermented a great deal of societal acrimony. People are angry and far less civil. This will not be fundamental rethinking of our financial system...at least, not yet. People need to get that anger out. What I am saying is that it could get ugly. Perhaps I overanalyze, but let me ask the military experts on the board (of which I am no expert)....when was the last time an active-duty military unit was pulled from a battlefront (Iraq) and stationed stateside, on active duty? From the article linked below... Federal homeland defense? Defense support of civil authorities? Who is expecting what? Be careful what you wish for. Unintended consequences can have lasting ramifications. Better to choose the imperfect solution that leads to a better day than to meltdown the system. http://www.armytimes.com/news/2008/09/army_homeland_090708w/

Simple. If the hurricane hits, it will not discriminate among its victims. Whether John Q. Taxpayer contributed to the problem or not, he will be consumed via the hurricane. If John Q. Taxpayer actually knew/understood the ramifications of this, the bill would have passed unopposed, but for the few that desire total anarchy. The bill may or may not unlock the credit markets, but it will help. That much is undeniable.

So now what... Basically, it appears likely that an attempt will be made later this week to revive some variation of the "Paulson Plan." The real challenge in this zero-sum political game is to fashion something that can pass the House and yet still get through the Senate in fairly short order. One alternative that may emerge is to re-package EESA, in more/less the same form in which it came to the House floor this morning, with several other proposals popular among House Democrats and then simply rely on Democratic votes to get it passed. I have read all of the proposed bills. The original was far overreaching by Paulson, as the media has reported. The second Democratic bill had a lot of bullsh*t add-ons, that made it unworkable. This was the good bill (the one that failed today). Potential add-ons include the mortgage bankruptcy "cramdown" proposal championed in the House by Brad Miller and a second round of "economic stimulus." Of course, then you can forget getting Republicans in the Senate. A last option is to let the consequences of inaction - today's nearly 780 point drop in the Dow and the increasing fallout from the credit market freeze (missed payrolls, etc) - trickle down to "Main Street," and hope that the grassroots uprising that spawned the demise of EESA I will do a 180 in support of EESA II. This, together with the beating the House Republicans already seem to be getting in the media, would, according to this theory, turn a sufficient number of Republicans around to pass essentially the same bill that failed this morning. It's not at all clear, however, that we have enough time to implement the trickle-down approach before the October 15 payroll, which some companies will miss, due to the freeze in the credit markets. Many companies are currently drawing down their credit lines with banks (thereby exacerbating the bank run that beat down financials recently) for the September 30 payrolls. If this is not resolved by the 10/30 payroll.... It now appears likely that House Democrats, working together with the Bush Administration and however many Republicans they can peel off, will take another run at this later in the week, although it's too early to tell exactly what form the bill will take or what parliamentary procedure/strategy will be followed. Chances are, however, that the revised proposal will, at its core, look much like the one that went down today in the House. Obviously, market developments over the next few days or so will also be critical, including the international ramifications of today's vote, which haven't really begun to sink in yet. Basically...global financial meltdown. Say hello to Dow 8000 on October 16, absent a rescue. Also, borderline anarchy in the streets. We have enough societal acrimony bubbling just beneath the surface without the match that a couple missed payrolls will ignite. What really pisses me off is that the extreme left and extreme right are basically holding the center hostage here. The center (and Congressional/Administrative leadership) have not done a good job in this by any means, but they arrived with a very workable bill, that was basically checkmated by the ignorant. If the ignorant had any clue that they may just miss payroll on 10/15 and/or 10/30, if this was not passed, then we may have had a very different discussion. Paulson needs to explain the ramifications of this vote and he is afraid to do that.

And Congress is not taking the days off, they are for the Jewish religious holiday, Rosh Hashanah. Here you go...my formatting will not come out. ---- AYES 205 --- Ackerman Allen Andrews Arcuri Bachus Baird Baldwin Bean Berman Berry Bishop (GA) Bishop (NY) Blunt Boehner Bonner Bono Mack Boozman Boren Boswell Boucher Boyd (FL) Brady (PA) Brady (TX) Brown (SC) Brown, Corrine Calvert Camp (MI) Campbell (CA) Cannon Cantor Capps Capuano Cardoza Carnahan Castle Clarke Clyburn Cohen Cole (OK) Cooper Costa Cramer Crenshaw Crowley Cubin Davis (AL) Davis (CA) Davis (IL) Davis, Tom DeGette DeLauro Dicks Dingell Donnelly Doyle Dreier Edwards (TX) Ehlers Ellison Ellsworth Emanuel Emerson Engel Eshoo Etheridge Everett Farr Fattah Ferguson Fossella Foster Frank (MA) Gilchrest Gonzalez Gordon Granger Gutierrez Hall (NY) Hare Harman Hastings (FL) Herger Higgins Hinojosa Hobson Holt Honda Hooley Hoyer Inglis (SC) Israel Johnson, E. B. Kanjorski Kennedy Kildee Kind King (NY) Kirk Klein (FL) Kline (MN) LaHood Langevin Larsen (WA) Larson (CT) Levin Lewis (CA) Lewis (KY) Loebsack Lofgren, Zoe Lowey Lungren, Daniel E. Mahoney (FL) Maloney (NY) Markey Marshall Matsui McCarthy (NY) McCollum (MN) McCrery McDermott McGovern McHugh McKeon McNerney McNulty Meek (FL) Meeks (NY) Melancon Miller (NC) Miller, Gary Miller, George Mollohan Moore (KS) Moore (WI) Moran (VA) Murphy (CT) Murphy, Patrick Murtha Nadler Neal (MA) Oberstar Obey Olver Pallone Pelosi Perlmutter Peterson (PA) Pickering Pomeroy Porter Price (NC) Pryce (OH) Putnam Radanovich Rahall Rangel Regula Reyes Reynolds Richardson Rogers (AL) Rogers (KY) Ross Ruppersberger Ryan (OH) Ryan (WI) Sarbanes Saxton Schakowsky Schwartz Sessions Sestak Shays Simpson Sires Skelton Slaughter Smith (TX) Smith (WA) Snyder Souder Space Speier Spratt Tancredo Tanner Tauscher Towns Tsongas Upton Van Hollen Velázquez Walden (OR) Walsh (NY) Wasserman Schultz Waters Watt Waxman Weiner Weldon (FL) Wexler Wilson (NM) Wilson (OH) Wilson (SC) Wolf ---- NOES 228 --- Abercrombie Aderholt Akin Alexander Altmire Baca Bachmann Barrett (SC) Barrow Bartlett (MD) Barton (TX) Becerra Berkley Biggert Bilbray Bilirakis Bishop (UT) Blackburn Blumenauer Boustany Boyda (KS) Braley (IA) Broun (GA) Brown-Waite, Ginny Buchanan Burgess Burton (IN) Butterfield Buyer Capito Carney Carson Carter Castor Cazayoux Chabot Chandler Childers Clay Cleaver Coble Conaway Conyers Costello Courtney Cuellar Culberson Cummings Davis (KY) Davis, David Davis, Lincoln Deal (GA) DeFazio Delahunt Dent Diaz-Balart, L. Diaz-Balart, M. Doggett Doolittle Drake Duncan Edwards (MD) English (PA) Fallin Feeney Filner Flake Forbes Fortenberry Foxx Franks (AZ) Frelinghuysen Gallegly Garrett (NJ) Gerlach Giffords Gillibrand Gingrey Gohmert Goode Goodlatte Graves Green, Al Green, Gene Grijalva Hall (TX) Hastings (WA) Hayes Heller Hensarling Herseth Sandlin Hill Hinchey Hirono Hodes Hoekstra Holden Hulshof Hunter Inslee Issa Jackson (IL) Jackson-Lee (TX) Jefferson Johnson (GA) Johnson (IL) Johnson, Sam Jones (NC) Jordan Kagen Kaptur Keller Kilpatrick King (IA) Kingston Knollenberg Kucinich Kuhl (NY) Lamborn Lampson Latham LaTourette Latta Lee Lewis (GA) Linder Lipinski LoBiondo Lucas Lynch Mack Manzullo Marchant Matheson McCarthy (CA) McCaul (TX) McCotter McHenry McIntyre McMorris Rodgers Mica Michaud Miller (FL) Miller (MI) Mitchell Moran (KS) Murphy, Tim Musgrave Myrick Napolitano Neugebauer Nunes Ortiz Pascrell Pastor Paul Payne Pearce Pence Peterson (MN) Petri Pitts Platts Poe Price (GA) Ramstad Rehberg Reichert Renzi Rodriguez Rogers (MI) Rohrabacher Ros-Lehtinen Roskam Rothman Roybal-Allard Royce Rush Salazar Sali Sánchez, Linda T. Sanchez, Loretta Scalise Schiff Schmidt Scott (GA) Scott (VA) Sensenbrenner Serrano Shadegg Shea-Porter Sherman Shimkus Shuler Shuster Smith (NE) Smith (NJ) Solis Stark Stearns Stupak Sullivan Sutton Taylor Terry Thompson (CA) Thompson (MS) Thornberry Tiahrt Tiberi Tierney Turner Udall (CO) Udall (NM) Visclosky Walberg Walz (MN) Wamp Watson Welch (VT) Westmoreland Whitfield (KY) Wittman (VA) Woolsey Wu Yarmuth Young (AK) Young (FL) ---- NOT VOTING 1 --- Weller

You can thank Rosh Hashanah for mitigating tomorrow's carnage. Of course, later in the week is open season.

A real f*cking profile in courage here... Throw the whole f*cking lot of them out...Dems and Reps.

Wrong. Welcome to the wonderful world of Deflation. What happens when all asset values are deflated? Negative economic growth. High unemployment. What happens when wages head south, even for those who continue to be employed? Ooops, didn't think of that right? And, oh, you may have forgotten that the baby boomer generation (the largest in US history) is now retiring...not gonna happen for them. Their 401(k)s just imploded. Remember your history...1929...the margin clerk comes calling...hey, I may just get into the spirit of things and pick up a fedora. Its 1930 again and yes, we will enter a depression. And what always follows deflation....print more money...yep, hyperinflation. Hoping the price of gold drops because I'm seriously considering dumping my own personal savings account into solid gold and picking up an assault rifle while I'm at it.

Here you go... Trading curbs are based on a % http://www.programtrading.com/curbs.htm

Yes, but when every single home purchased with at least an 80% mortgage in the United States since 2002 is underwater (worth less than the mortgage on it)...there is one word for that... F*cked!

Its dead... Moments ago the House EESA bill FAILED. The vote was 205 to 228. 133 Rs voted No, along with 94 Dems. Look out below Dow...700 and counting....

I had not thought of that, not a bad idea!! Home values really need to stabilize and rebound or else this is going to get far worse.

True, but the plan really addresses the symptoms, not necessarily the root cause of the problem. The root cause, from a financial perspective only, is falling home values and negative home equity. I, unfortunately, don't see this plan fixing that problem. Time for helicopter drops? We could, of course, inflate our way out of this, but that would cause even more problems. Time may be our only answer, but will it ever be painful.

I always buy scalped tickets to most events. Never had a problem and usually get much better seats than I could have gotten online or through a broker. Always get the real seats and usually 10 minutes before kickoff. I have rarely paid more than 10-20 bucks over face. Doesn't matter if its the WS at Yankee Stadium, a Bruce concert at Shea or any Bills game (home or away) that I have attended. Most times, I will choose an away game and not even buy tickets until 10 minutes before the game. Always have a seating chart with you.

No, but what is news is that WaMu's board and senior management didn't even know this was happening today. They thought they had more time.

I had thought of that, but the capital would be there due to oil revenues. I also thought the FBI investigation to be odd.

I do agree with you...wonder if KC would take a 2nd & 5th for him? Gonzalez would really open up the field. Imagine the room the outside guys would have with Gonzalez taking a double team down the middle.

You see...I knew I liked you. What a real decent thing to do for someone. to you stuckincincy

I admit this has all the making of the moon-landing-was-staged crackpots, but the original site I linked to, Minyanville, has been a trusted resource of mine for years. To put that out there, would destroy all future credibility. That is the only reason I'm not dismissing this as a ghost story right now.

No clue, certainly not advocating this theory at all. Just asking if anyone else heard anything about this.

This quote is from I site I respect and consult daily. Anyone hearing anything about this from other sites/work/etc. that you could post? I have heard nothing. Full Article EDIT: Another site report on this... http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/200...r-attack-o.html

Its always a good time to do that...that is if you have an extra $133,300 laying around.

And it came down to a game winning FG...nah, sh*t like that never happens twice.

No, you misread me. The problem stems from the relaxation of lending standards for all homebuyers, encouraged by each successive administration since Reagan. If lending standards were still tight, like in the NYC program, there would be no crisis.

Change interest rate to discount rate and you just hit the trillion dollar question. These securities are debt instruments. The way to properly value one of these things (once it is unwound) is a method called the discounted cash flows model learned in Finance 101. Basically, you take all the cash flows that the instrument will pay from now through maturity, and discount them to present day. The whole time value of money concept. Once unwound/unbundled/sorted out, the cash flows are pretty easy to determine. The determination of the discount rate is far more art than science, and one reason why fortunes are made on Wall Street. The discount rate would factor in such things as risk of default, interest rate risk, market risk etc. It make a huge difference if you use, say 6% versus 8%, especially when talking trillions. If I could figure out the discount rate, I'd start my own hedge fund buying these things. Treasury will buy these things at a discount (not the mark-to-market, pennies on the dollar) price they currently sell at. Treasury will then hold or pay someone to administer and then sell at a profit (hopefully, if done right).

Caused...perhaps not. But we started on the path to ruin when lending standards that had been in place since the 1930s were relaxed in the 1980s... and the following.... Finally, and I did not know this, but NYC had a program to help low income residents achieve the dream of home ownership. It was administered by the Bloomberg administration, and properly run. Consider the following... Full articles below for citation purposes Bloomberg Program Other article